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Today, 3:03AM UTC
Why the 2026 winter was the warmest on record across large parts of Australia
The 2026 Australian winter was the warmest on record across huge parts of the country, and at hundreds of individual locations – including our two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, and the national capital Canberra. It was the warmest winter on record in Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania, while it was the 3rd-warmest in Queensland, and Western Australia's 4th-warmest. Overall, it was Australia's equal 3rd-warmest. But why? Image: Winter mean temperature anomalies in Victoria from 1910 to 2026, showing that the 2026 winter was the warmest on record, with an anomaly of 1.40°C above the long-term average. Source: BoM. Here are five key factors which contributed to unprecedented warmth in the era of meteorological record-keeping, which dates back as far as the 1850s at major weather stations like Observatory Hill in Sydney. El Niño Image: The current El Niño just keeps strengthening, according to the Relative Niño3.4 index. Source: BoM. El Niño has previously contributed to some of Australia's warmest, driest winters on record – as well as many of our worst snow seasons. For example, the two years with the lowest snow season peak depth at Spencers Creek in NSW (elevation 1830m, as measured throughout winter by hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro) were 1982 and 2006 – both of which were El Niño years. El Niño makes rainfall and snowfall less likely in Australia by reducing the likelihood of moisture-laden weather systems and their associated cloud cover. Sunnier days also tend to increase average maximum temperatures in the country's southeast, including in the Australian Alps. It's worth noting that despite the presence of El Niño, winter rainfall in Hobart, Canberra and Melbourne was close to average across the season as a whole, while Adelaide's rainfall was above-average in each month of the 2026 winter. But the wet weather often had tropical rather than polar origins, which brings us to our second point... Lack of cold air with frontal systems Image: There was minimal natural snowfall and it was even too warm for snowmaking at Perisher Valley, NSW, during much of June 2026. Source: Steve Smith. You didn't hear phrases like "polar outbreak" or "Antarctic blast" often in the 2026 Australian winter. There were no significant snowfalls in marginal snowy locations like the Central and Northern Tablelands of New South Wales this winter. Nor was snow reported in major population centres like Canberra (ACT) or Ballarat (Vic) which are high enough for light snow flurries (and even occasional settled snow) in the coldest winter systems. That's because the 2026 winter was marked by a lack of strong cold fronts passing over southeastern Australia. While relatively brief bursts of cold weather did occur, prolonged cold spells were absent, with most cold fronts being pushed southwards by persistent blocking high pressure systems. The positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in June Image: The last 12 months of SAM data, up to the end of August 2026. Source: BoM. The 2026 Australian winter started with a brief moment of hope for snow enthusiasts, when a moderate snowfall of 10 to 15 centimetres coated the Australian high country in white just in time for the official snow season opening on June 6. But like the skiers and snowboarders on the slopes, the snow cover went downhill from there. For just the second time on record, there was officially no snow at Spencers Creek in NSW at the start of July, after June was marked by a distinct lack of cold fronts across the southeast corner of the country. This pattern was typical of a strongly positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The SAM is a climate driver which influences the north-south displacement of the belt of powerful winds which flow year-round from west to east over the Southern Ocean, relative to where the belt would normally be positioned at a given time of year. A positive SAM means that the belt of westerlies is further south than usual. This led to infrequent intrusions of cold weather systems right across the southeast, and it's why almost no fresh snow fell across the Australian Alps in June. It's also a large part of the reason why (to use just one example from southern Australia) Melbourne's maximums and minimums were both more than two degrees above average in June, even though the month was slightly wetter than average. Above average sea surface temperatures around Australia Image: Sea surface temperatures anomalies across Australia in June 2026. Source: BoM. As the map above shows, sea surface temperatures around Australia were warmer than average during June. This general pattern continued throughout the winter. When air passes over warmer-than-average water, it absorbs some of the heat, which means slightly warmer temperatures as the air moves inland. Several times this winter, warmer sea surface temperatures off northwestern WA helped fuel northwest cloudbands, which brought rain (along with relatively mild temperatures for winter) all the way to the southeastern corner of the country. The underlying influence of climate change Climate change played a significant role in this year's warm Australian winter. As mentioned above, El Niño years tend to coincide with warm winters, and there were other broad-scale and localised factors at play behind the warm 2026 winter. So while the ongoing trend of global atmospheric and oceanic warming wasn't the only factor behind this winter's warmth, climate change helped turn what might have been a moderately or even very warm winter by historical standards into the warmest on record in many areas.
31 Aug 2026, 5:43AM UTC
Top 3 warmest winter on record for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide and Hobart
Winter 2026 was exceptionally warm across southeastern and eastern Australia, with all capital cities between Brisbane, Hobart and Adelaide registering one of their top three warmest winters on record. A lack of strong cold fronts passing over southeastern Australia during the last three months allowed temperatures to run well above average throughout winter. While there were still periods of cold weather, there was a noticeable absence of polar outbreaks and prolonged cold spells this season. Warmest winter on record for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra Australia's two most populated cities, Sydney and Melbourne, and the nation’s capital, Canberra, all set new winter warmth records this season. These three cities collectively account for around 11.5 million people, which is more than 40% of Australia's population. Sydney’s mean temperature in winter 2026 was around 15.29°C, which is the city’s highest winter mean temperature on record, beating 14.95°C from 2013. The city’s average maximum temperature of 19.64°C was also a new record for winter. Data for Sydney dates back to 1859. Melbourne’s mean temperature this winter will come in at around 12.18°C, just above the previous record of 12.17°C from 2013. This makes 2026 the city’s warmest winter since observations commenced in 1855. Canberra also had its warmest winter on record, with a seasonal mean temperature of about 8.14°C. The previous record for the nation’s capital was 7.94°C in 2013, with data available back to the 1920s. Image: Modelled maximum temperature on the last day of winter 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Top three warmest winters for Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart Hobart had its second warmest winter on record, with a mean temperature of around 10.51°C, putting the season behind 10.62°C in 2023. Hobart’s Ellerslie Road weather station has records dating to 1882 (but there are a few years missing in the early 1900s). Brisbane’s mean temperature in winter was around 17.63°C, which falls just below 17.64°C from 2019 and 17.68°C from 2023. Brisbane is another location with winter temperature records stretching back into the 1800s, with observations commencing in 1887. It was also Brisbane’s driest winter since 2004. Adelaide’s seasonal mean of around 12.90°C will also come in at third place behind 12.92°C in 2009 and 13.03°C in 2023. Adelaide’s observational history also begun in 1887. Despite being so warm, Adelaide also registered its wettest winter in 30 years. It’s likely that this will have been one of Australia's warmest winters on record based on the national mean temperature. However, that figure won’t be available until early September, once all the data from the final day of winter has come in. The statistics mentioned in this article are provisional seasonal averages based on observations up to 9am on Monday, August 31, combined with the forecast maximum temperatures on Monday. The final official seasonal values will become available after 9am on Tuesday, September 1.
31 Aug 2026, 2:10AM UTC
22°C to start spring in Melbourne as warmth spreads east
A burst of warmth will spread across southeastern Australia this week, with a relatively brief spike in temperatures in Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra around the first day of the new season, while Sydney will be unseasonably warm all week. On Tuesday, September 1: Melbourne is predicted to reach 22°C (average Sept maximum 17.3°C). In Adelaide, the mercury should also peak around 22°C (average Sept maximum 18.5°C). Hobart is forecast to reach 19°C but there's a chance the temperature could even tip over the 20-degree mark (average Sept maximum 15.2°C). Canberra is expected to reach 20°C on Tuesday, with maximums of 21°C expected either side of it, both this Monday and again on Wednesday. Since this Monday is the last day of August, it's worth noting that twenty-one degrees is an exceptionally warm winter temperature for the national capital, given that Canberra's average August maximum is just 14.4°C. While Canberra topped the 21-degree mark in August two years ago (21.4°C on August 24, 2024), the previous time it reached 21°C in August was back in 2015. What will cause the warm start to the season? Image: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa temperatures predicted for 4 pm (AEST) on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Air circulating anticlockwise around the high pressure system centred over the Tasman Sea will drag relatively warm air from Australia's interior across the southeast. But the warmth will dissipate by Wednesday in Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart, and by Thursday in Canberra, as cooler air associated with a weakening cold front sweeps in from the southwest. Image: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa temperatures predicted for 4 pm (AEST) on Thursday, September 3, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Sydney to hit high-20s twice this week, largely unaffected by cooler air further south Of the southeastern capitals, Sydney is the only one that will barely feel the influx of cooler air. The harbour city is expected to reach 26°C on Tuesday to start spring, 27°C on Wednesday, and 26°C again on Thursday before dipping slightly to 23°C on Friday (average September maximum 20.2°C). By the weekend, significant early spring warmth returns, with a maximum around 29°C expected across the city from the western suburbs to the coastal fringe. There's even a chance the city could reach 30°C – a mark that hasn't been recorded in the first week of September since 2020. Dry and sunny for Sydney, showers developing in other SE capitals Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across SE Australia to 10 am (AEST) on Thursday, September 3, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Sydney is the only southeastern capital which is expected to remain dry over the coming week. While Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra should all see at least a few showers across several days as maximums dip back into the teens, Sydney will be protected by the ranges to the west of the city – as often happens in westerly streams in late winter and early spring. READ MORE: Warm start to spring to follow Sydney’s warmest winter on record