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Unstable air and a cold front brings showers and some storms to WA's south and SA's west. Moist onshore winds drive showers into northeast NSW, eastern Qld and the NT's eastern Top End. High pressure keeps the southeast dry and settled with unseasonably warm northerly winds.
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Today, 2:58AM UTC
Australia's 2025–26 tropical cyclone season: a season defined by intensity
Australia's 2025–26 tropical cyclone season featured seven severe tropical cyclones — well above the historical average of four to five — continuing a trend of increasing cyclone intensity in the Australian region. The 2025–26 Australian tropical cyclone season officially ran from 1 November 2025 to 30 April 2026. During this six-month period, Australia saw 11 tropical cyclones, with nine forming within the Australian region and two forming outside of Australia’s area of responsibility. Five of these systems made landfall, bringing severe weather to parts of the country. Image: Tropical cyclones that formed in, or moved into the Australian region during the 2025-26 season. Source: Weatherzone. While a season total of eleven cyclones is slightly above the long-term average of 9.5 systems, the season was notable for an unusually high proportion of severe cyclones forming in the region. Of the eleven cyclones, seven systems reached severe intensity (Category 3 or higher), compared to a historical average of approximately 4-5 severe cyclones per season. This is the third consecutive season with six or more severe tropical cyclones in the Australian region, following eight in 2024-25 and six in 2023-24. The seven severe systems of the 2025–26 season were: Narelle (Cat 5) Maila (Cat 5) Fina (Cat 4) Bakung (Cat 4) Hayley (Cat 4) Jenna (Cat 4) Mitchell (Cat 3) Of these seven severe tropical cyclones, four made landfall on the Australian mainland, with Narelle notably crossing the coast multiple times across three different states/territories. Cyclone activity during the season was not evenly distributed, with peak periods occurring during monsoon onsets and when tropical pulses, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), were active. The most active period occurred between February and March 2026, when the monsoon trough, MJO and warm ocean temperatures coincided. The 2025–26 season broadly followed the typical spatial pattern; however, the western region saw more cyclones than normal, with nine forming or moving into the area. Image: Tropical cyclone count for each Australian region in the 2025-26 season, along with the long-tern average for each region. Source: Weatherzone. Climate drivers influencing tropical cyclones this season The active and intense 2025-26 tropical cyclone season occurred under the influence of above-average sea surface temperatures surrounding northern Australia, which were associated with La Niña, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the background influence of climate change. This abnormally warm water was a dominant driver of tropical cyclone intensity, supporting: Rapid intensification events Higher peak cyclone intensity Longer-lived severe systems The northern Australian monsoon arrived earlier than usual on December 23, 2025, marking the first active phase of the wet season. This is typical of La Niña years, which often see an earlier monsoon onset. Once established, the monsoon became highly active and moisture-rich, contributing significantly to both rainfall and tropical cyclone development. Tropical cyclones and monsoonal lows also contributed significantly to seasonal rainfall totals, particularly inland, with above to very much above average rainfall observed across northern Australia. Cyclone trend in Australia: fewer cyclones but with greater intensity The number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region has decreased in recent decades, with an average reduction of around one system every 11 years since 1980, likely linked to broader climate change influences. This long-term decline also reflects strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with La Niña years typically producing more cyclones, while El Niño years are often associated with fewer systems. Image: Seasonal tropical cyclone numbers and long-term trend, combined with ENSO phases showing El Niño years in red and La Niña years in blue. Source: Weatherzone. While total cyclone numbers are decreasing, the proportion of severe tropical cyclones is increasing. Warmer ocean temperatures are a key driver of this trend, supporting more frequent rapid intensification and higher peak intensities. Tropical Cyclone Narelle- the most impactful system of the season Tropical Cyclone Narelle accounted for a disproportionate share of operational activity due to its duration and multi-region impact. It is highly unusual for a system to cross three Australian jurisdictions (Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia), making Narelle a rare “triple-impact” cyclone. This type of track is extremely uncommon in modern records. Narelle became the first tropical cyclone since 2005 to make landfall in three Australian states while maintaining tropical cyclone intensity, with the only other comparable cases since 1980 being Cyclone Ingrid (2005) and Cyclone Steve (2000).
30 Apr 2026, 4:30AM UTC
Darwin wet season was 4th-soggiest on record
The Top End wet season comes to an end with clear skies and dry conditions across virtually the entire Northern Territory this Thursday, but it was a very soggy season in many locations, and not least in Darwin. The Top End wet season officially runs from the start of October to the end of April. To 9am this Thursday, April 30 (in the unlikely event of rain after 9am, it will be counted in May’s total) Darwin recorded: 2397.4mm of rainfall across the wet season, which made it the 4th-wettest on record. The average across the season in 157 years of records is 1691.7mm. Above-average rainfall in each of the last six months of the season from November through April. The only other time that happened was in 2016/17. It’s worth noting that all five of Darwin’s dampest wet seasons have occurred since the 1990s. Climatologists have identified a trend of gradually increasing wet season rainfall, and this is considered to be a signal related to climate change. Apart from Darwin, numerous other locations in the Top End also experienced consistently wetter-than-usual conditions in the 2025/26 wet season. For example, the weather station at Cape Wessel at the far northeastern tip of Arnhem Land recorded 513.4mm of rainfall in December and 639.8mm in January. The December figure was a record, while January came close. Indeed, a few small areas recorded in both the NT Top End and Queensland's Cape York received their heaviest rainfall totals on record across the duration of the wet season. Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia from the start of October 2025 to the end of April 2026. Some parts of Qld and the NT experienced record wet season rainfall totals for the duration of the seven-month season. Source: BoM. Why was the Top End wet season so wet? Numerous slow-moving tropical lows generated persistent rainfall over prolonged periods, while tropical cyclones also played a significant role in rainfall totals, especially Fina in November and Narelle in March, In particular, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle had a strong influence on rainfall totals during the 2025/26 Top End wet season. Narelle made landfall in three states during March. Its first landfall was in Far North Queensland, its second was in the NT Top End, while its third was in the northwest of Western Australia. That second landfall brought copious amounts of rain to the territory and caused severe flooding in and around places like Katherine. Darwin and Katherine (300km SE of Darwin) both exceeded 500mm of rainfall in March. This made it the wettest month of the 2025/26 wet season in both spots, even though March is on average Darwin’s 3rd-wettest and Katherine’s 4th-wettest wet season month. Image: Rainfall deciles for the Northern Territory in March, 2026. The dark blue areas represent the heaviest March monthly totals on record. Source: BoM. Can it still rain during the rest of the year in the Top End? With the dry season upon us, that doesn’t mean the rain taps totally turn off until October – although that can happen in the winter months. On average, Darwin receives 20.2mm, 1.7mm, 1.1mm, 4.5mm, and 16.8mm of rainfall in May, June, July, August and September respectively. But last year, the city received not a drop in June, July and August, which is not unusual.
29 Apr 2026, 10:07PM UTC
Storms, blustery winds to hit southern Australia
A burst of wet and windy weather will sweep across southern Australia later this week, with thunderstorms and an abrupt temperature drop also on the cards for several states. A complex low pressure system moving to the south of Australia will cause a cold front and low pressure trough to cross the country’s south from Friday to Sunday. The system will move from west to east, causing showers, thunderstorms and blustery winds over the south of Western Australia on Friday, South Australia on Saturday and Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory on Saturday and Sunday. Following a spell of dry and unusually warm weather across much of southern Australia this week, the upcoming system will cause an abrupt change in conditions, including a big drop in temperature. The map below shows how much rain is expected to fall over the next seven days, although most of this is likely to happen between Friday and Sunday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The rain from this system will affect a broad area of southern Australia stretching from WA to NSW. However, falls are likely to be hit and miss for many areas, as opposed to widespread uniform rainfall. This means some areas will see decent falls of around 10 to 20mm, possibly over 40mm, while others will get little if any rain. This rainfall disparity will be particularly stark where thunderstorms are involved. Wind will also be a notable feature this week as northerly winds strengthen ahead of the approaching front and cooler west to southwesterly winds arrive in its wake. Damaging winds may develop in some areas, most likely over SA and parts of western Vic on Saturday, and possibly elevated areas of eastern Vic and southeast NSW on Sunday. Image: Forecast wind gusts over SA on Saturday morning. Source: Weatherzone. Temperatures should also cool by around 5 to 10°C with the passage of this system: Adelaide is forecast to reach as high as 19°C on Sunday and Monday, much cooler than the 28 to 29°C maximum temperatures in the city from Wednesday to Friday. Melbourne is predicted to reach around 26°C on Friday and only 22°C by Sunday. Hobart should reach 24 to 25°C on Friday and Saturday, then 19°C on Monday. Canberra is forecast to reach 23°C on Saturday and Sunday, and 17°C on Tuesday. Image: Daily forecasts for Adealide in the Weatherzone app, showing wet and cooler weather arriving this weekend. Source: Weatherzone. Warnings for damaging winds, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms may be issued in parts of southern Australia this week, so be sure to check the latest warnings in your area over the next few days.