Australian Weather

15 May 2026, 6:37AM UTC

A broad area of rain is set to soak Australia this weekend, with Adelaide and nearby areas already getting a welcome drink this Friday afternoon. The moisture from this system originated in the tropics and has fed down to central and southern Australia under northerly winds, which means it’s also exceptionally warm for this time of year in many places. Examples of unseasonable warmth: Melbourne reached 22.7°C this Friday, almost six degrees above its average May maximum of 16.8°C. That made it 7 out of the first 15 days this May when the mercury has topped 20°C in Melbourne, and 22°C is forecast for this Saturday, May 16. Hobart reached 20.7°C today, just over six degrees above its average May maximum of 14.6°C. Hobart started the month with a record May high of 26.9°C on May 1, and this month’s maximums are currently running at 4.2 degrees above average, with another day of 21°C forecast for Saturday. Areas where significant rain could fall this weekend: Image: Combined radar and satellite loop in South Australia for the six hours to 3:30pm (ACST) on Friday, May 15, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. South Australia As mentioned, rain has already started falling in South Australia. Between 9am and 3pm (ACST) on Friday, more than 15mm was recorded at Stenhouse Bay (Yorke Peninsula) and at Parawa West (Fleurieu Peninsula, just south of Adelaide). Adelaide received 3.8mm between 9am and 3pm. On the weekend, at least a few showers or storms are expected in all 15 South Australian official BoM forecast districts, from the normally parched North West Pastoral to the reliably rainy Lower South East. Western Victoria and New South Wales Significant falls are possible in western parts of both NSW and Vic on Saturday, with meaningful rain from this system not extending further east until the first few days of next week – although it’s worth noting that coastal NSW has been receiving rain all week, including this Friday, from an easterly system.  Canberra has had almost no rain this May (0.4mm in total to May 15) but can expect a decent drop on Monday and/or Tuesday after a mostly dry weekend, as this system finally reaches the NSW Southern Tablelands and the ACT. Tasmania Sunday looks like the wettest day of a consistently showery 4-day forecast period in Tasmania, with falls heavier in the northern, western and elevated parts of the state than in Hobart and the southeast. Queensland It’s a strange May weekend when Birdsville could be wetter than Brisbane, but that’s on the cards this weekend with inland rain set to soak SW Queensland, while Brisbane should still see coastal showers under easterly or southeasterly winds. Northern Territory The weekend looks wet in the southern NT, including in Alice Springs, where both Saturday and Sunday should provide the first days of meaningful rainfall since this year’s very wet February and March. Wherever you are, we hope you get rain if you need it this weekend.

14 May 2026, 8:30PM UTC

This year’s Australian snow season could be influenced by a very strong El Niño, increasing the likelihood of below-average snow in the Australian Alps. The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place. However, an El Niño pattern is emerging, and forecast models predict that El Niño will become established this winter and may last through the second half of the year. Some forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model, predict that the impending El Niño will become very strong, meaning sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean will reach more than 2°C above the long-term average. Some forecasters and researchers refer to a very strong El Niño as a ‘super’ El Niño, however this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Forecast relative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, in an area called the Nino3.4 region. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While a stronger El Niño does not guarantee that it will have a strong influence on Australia’s weather, the most recent ‘super’ El Niño years have all had a similar effect on the Australian snow season – they usually cause less snow. How does a very strong El Niño affect the Australian snow season? The most recent very strong El Niño events occurred in 2015-16, 1997-98, 1982-83 and 1972-73. The three most recent of these events were associated with below-average snow in the Australian Alps during the year El Niño became established. According to snow depth data from Spencers Creek in NSW, which sits at about 1830 metres above sea level, the long-term average season peak snow depth is around 196 cm. During the last three very strong El Niño formation years, the peak snow depth only reached 91 to 150 cm. In 1972, the snow depth was slightly above average. Image: Season peak snow depths at Spencers Creek NSW, with very strong or ‘super’ El Niño years highlighted in red. Source: Weatherzone. The graph above shows that most, but not all, very strong El Niño years since 1954 have been associated with below average snow at Spencers Creek in NSW. This shows that while very strong El Niño years make below average peak snow depths more likely, the Australian Alps can still see good snow due to natural variability. El Niño makes snow less likely in Australia by reducing rainfall and cloud cover and increasing average maximum temperatures in the country's southeast, including the Alps. This influence is amplified when the El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). On average, the season peak snow depth at Spencers Creek is about 35 cm lower during El Niño years. The two lowest years on record were also El Niño years – in 1982 and 2006 – despite 2006 only being a weak El Niño year. Climate change and Australian snow In addition to climate drivers like El Niño and the IOD, the background influence of climate change is also impacting Australia’s snow season. Since 1954, the peak snow depth at Spencers Creek has dropped by around 0.5 cm per year, or 5 cm per decade. However, there is a large amount of variability from year to year. The average dates of the season’s peak snow depth and last snowmelt have also moved slightly earlier in the season. What can we expect this season? This year’s Australian snow season is likely to be influenced by El Niño, possibly a very strong or ‘super’ El Niño. As of mid-May, this is currently unlikely to coincide with a positive IOD, although some forecast models do hint at the possibility of a positive IOD during winter or spring. The presence of El Niño and the background influence of climate change increase the likelihood that the Australian Alps will see a below average peak snow depth this season. However, it will only take a few decent snowfalls to offset the influence of El Niño, so even with an elevated chance of below average snow this season, it’s not guaranteed. In the near-term, weather models are not currently showing signs of any major snowfalls in the final two weeks of May. This means that winter, which begins on June 1, will most likely start without much natural snow on the ground in the Alps.