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Showers & storms are scattering across NSW, Qld, the tropics & WA in persistent troughs, most intense in WA & NSW. A front is bringing brisk winds & showers and storms to SA.
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Today, 2:30AM UTC
Australia's tropical cyclone risk increasing next week
The Australian tropics could be on the verge of awakening, with growing signs of heavy rain and increased tropical cyclone potential next week. Despite frequent showers and thunderstorms over parts of northern Australia in the last couple of months, there has been a noticeable absence of sustained monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity so far this season. It's unusual to go this far into the 'wet season' without the monsoon reaching northern Australia. In an average year, the monsoon usually arrives in northern Australia around the middle of December, with the latest recorded monsoon onset date at Darwin being January 25 in 1973. Image: Satellite image showing little cloud cover over Australia’s tropics on Tuesday, January 14, 2025. There has also only been one tropical cyclone named in the Australian region so far this season (Robyn) and none have come anywhere near our coast. In an average year not influenced by La Niña or El Niño, the first tropical cyclone to make landfall would be around late December. By all measures, it has been a sluggish start to the wet season in northern Australia, but this could be about to change. Some forecast models suggest that a surge of tropical moisture will encourage more typical monsoon-like rainfall over parts of northern Australia next week, while also increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity near Australia’s tropical coast. The driving force behind this tropical surge will be an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) passing to the north of Australia. The MJO refers to a large region of increased rain and thunderstorm activity that moves around the planet from west to east near the equator, typically recurring every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active near Australia, it increases the likelihood of rain, thunderstorms and tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. An active MJO is expected to pass through the Australian region from the week starting January 20 through to early February. The impending MJO burst will be bolstered by a huge pool of abnormally warm water lying off the northwest of Australia. This warm water, where sea surface temperatures are about 2-4°C above average, will add extra moisture to the atmosphere and provide more energy for cyclogenesis (the formation of low pressure systems that can go on to become tropical cyclones). These warm waters will also help a tropical cyclone intensify, should one form. Image: Observed sea surface temperature anomalies off the northwest coast of Australia on January 12, 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Rainfall forecasts for the coming seven days are showing increased rainfall over parts of Australia western tropics, particularly between the western Top End and the Pilbara. The map below shows the forecast accumulated rain over the next seven days, although the heaviest rain is expected to develop from late this week into next week. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Monday, January 20, 2025. The Bureau of Meteorology is also monitoring two potential tropical lows that are expected to form off the north coast of WA during the coming week. While these lows only have a low risk of becoming tropical cyclones this week, the risk increases to moderate for one of the systems from early next week. It is too early to know if this impending surge of moisture will qualify as a fully-fledged monsoon onset for northern Australia. It’s also too early to know if a tropical cyclone will develop and how strong it will be. However, there are already clear signs that the tropics could be about to wake up, so be sure to keep an eye on the forecasts and warnings as we head into the final fortnight of January.
13 Jan 2025, 4:34AM UTC
Another Santa Ana wind burst to hit LA firegrounds
A renewed surge of Santa Ana winds will create dangerous fire weather in southern California over the next few days, prompting Red Flag Warnings in areas where uncontained fires continue to burn around LA. As of Sunday evening local time, several large fires were burning around LA: The Palisades fire has burnt more than 23,700 acres over the past five days and remains mostly uncontrolled (11% contained). The Eaton fire has scorched an area spanning more than 14,000 acres and is only 27% contained. The Hurst fire is about 800 acres in size and nearly 90% contained. Video: Smoke billowing offshore from the fires near LA on Thursday, January 9. Source: CIRA Authorities working to contain these fires will face another dangerous spike in fire weather over the next few days as another surge of strong Santa Ana winds sweeps across LA and surrounding areas. The Santa Ana winds refer to seasonal northeasterly winds that periodically blow dry air through coastal areas of Southern California. They develop when air descending from the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range becomes warmer and drier as it flows down towards the coast, being enhanced further by the San Gabriel and Santa Monica Mountains. This week’s Santa Ana winds will be weaker than the event that occurred last week. However, it should still be strong enough to cause wind gusts reaching about 60 to 70 mph (97 to 113 km/h) in some areas over the coming days. The dry Santa Ana winds are expected to strengthen on Monday and persist at dangerous strength until Wednesday. This impending period of reinvigorated Santa Ana winds has prompted Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warnings around the LA region and the surrounding mountains. Image: Red Flag Warning issued by the NWS. Valid at 1:30pm PST on January 12, 2025. Source: NOAA/NWS One other important aspect of this week’s wind event is that the wind direction will be more easterly than last week’s surge. This could make some areas experience winds that were stronger than last week, despite the overall wind strength of this event being weaker. According to the National Weather Service, “much of Ventura County will likely have stronger winds than the offshore wind events this past week.” Wind should ease and start to blow onshore on Thursday and Friday, allowing the weather to become less conducive to fires into the back end of this week. However, forecast models are suggesting that another period of strong and dry offshore winds could redevelop next week, causing more dangerous fire weather to return. Visit https://www.fire.ca.gov/ for the latest information on the fires burning around LA and other areas of California.
13 Jan 2025, 1:04AM UTC
Four days of potentially violent storms for eastern Australia
Dangerously stormy days lie ahead for eastern Australia throughout much of the working week, with the potential for some storms to bring damaging wind gusts and possible flash flooding. The coming stormy weather follows a weekend during which many parts of eastern Australia experienced widespread heavy rainfall totals over a short time period, including: 72.2mm at Mt Ginini in the ACT, the heaviest fall at the weather station at the crest of the Brindabella Range on the NSW/ACT border since 2021. Most of the rain fell in an intense two-hour burst around twilight on Saturday Melbourne had 31mm to 9 am Monday, with around 20mm of that falling within a space of about 15 minutes just after midday on Sunday. Parts of northeastern Tasmania saw between 50mm and 100mm to 9am Monday, with the rain falling in a series of heavy downpours throughout Sunday morning and afternoon. The Gold Coast copped 100mm to 9am Monday at the Gold Coast Seaway weather station, and while rain fell quite steadily throughout the day, there were periods of intense downpours, such as when 31.6mm fell in the half hour after 10am Sunday. Tweed Heads (Duranbah), on the NSW side of the Qld/NSW border, also topped the century mark to 9am Monday, with 102mm. Image: Two-hour loop of rain and storms over Victoria and Tasmania from 11 am to 1 pm AEDT Sunday, January 12, 2025. While the weekend’s storms and heavy rainfall were caused by troughs associated with a broad area of low pressure across southeastern Australia, this week's coming storms will have another meteorological element added to the mix: stronger steering winds. Steering winds are winds at an elevation of about 3000 metres which direct the movement of weather systems. As steering winds from the west pick up at mid-levels of the atmosphere this week, the extra energy and wind shear will likely make storms more severe as the next trough moves through. Storms are possible across a broad area of the southeast from Monday onwards, but the period from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning looks like the most dangerous period – including large population centres like Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Image: The stormiest time in the east will likely be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. We'll keep you updated as the week unfolds and please check our warnings page for the latest.