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Cooler southerly onshore winds with high pressure brings some showers to Tas, southern Vic, eastern NSW & coastal SA. An unstable tropical air mass maintains showers & isolated storms over far northern Qld & the NT's eastern Top End. Dry across the interior.
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Today, 1:28AM UTC
Frosty mornings ahead as large high dominates
Chilly early mornings will be a feature of the weather across most of Australia for the rest of the working week, as a large high pressure system parks itself south of the mainland. While air circulating anti-clockwise around the high will push heavy showers onshore to parts of the east coast, most of the country will experience stable conditions with light winds. That means an outbreak of frosty mornings in the still, mostly clear air of mid-to-late autumn. Image: Forecast minimum temperatures for Friday, May 2, 2025, according to the ECMWF model. At least four states and territories can expect sub-zero minimums this week, with elevated parts of Tasmania, Victoria, NSW and the ACT all likely to see the grass turn crunchy on some or all of the mornings between Wednesday and Saturday. In the plains and valleys below the high country in those states, some towns and cities could also see frost. Canberra’s lowest minimums this week are expected to be 2°C on both Friday and Saturday mornings, but as mentioned in our recent story on Canberra frost, that’s cold enough for frost to form, as the ground is usually a couple of degrees cooler than the air directly above it where temperature measurements are taken. The synoptic chart for Thursday shows the dominance of the high, with southeasterlies pushing moisture towards NSW and Victoria’s East Gippsland region, but virtually no rainfall anywhere else in the country. Image: Synoptic chart for Thursday, May 1, 2025. A cold front will move towards southwest WA later in the week as the high drifts east, but its effects should remain localised at this stage. Aside from fronts clipping the south and wet weather over northeastern Queensland, next week's Australian weather again looks likely to be dominated by a large high pressure system. Why the blocking highs? While these large high pressure systems become more normal at this time of year, the ongoing pattern of blocking highs (highs that block the northwards track of Southern Ocean cold fronts) is consistent with the current positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The SAM refers to the north-south movement of strong westerly winds that dominate the mid-to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. With a positive SAM as we have now, these winds are positioned further south than usual, and highs tend to be the dominant feature. READ MORE: Southern Annular Mode - What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia?
28 Apr 2025, 2:06AM UTC
Wet week ahead for eastern NSW
Rain will continue to soak parts of eastern NSW this week, with another 100 mm set to fall along already sodden stretches of the state’s coastline. Satellite images captured on Monday morning revealed that cloud and rain were still lingering over eastern NSW following a weekend of torrential downpours. Image: Composite radar/satellite images showing cloud and showers streaming over eastern NSW on Monday morning. During the 24 hours ending at 9am on Monday, parts of the Hunter Valley and Central Coast regions received 100 to 150 mm of rain, with a few slightly higher totals This included 154 mm at Mandalong, near Morisset, 142 mm at Crawford and 133 mm at Mount Barrington. The low pressure system that caused the weekend’s heavy rain has now moved offshore, which will allow rain to continue easing through Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. However, this respite could be short-lived, with another rain-bearing low pressure trough expected to develop near the NSW coast during the middle of this week. Showers and areas of rain will affect parts of eastern and southern NSW on Tuesday before increasing again from Wednesday as the coastal trough deepens. This will lead to a wet few days from Wednesday into the weekend, during which time the rain will gradually spread further up the NSW coast and into southeast Qld. The map below shows how much rain is predicted to fall over eastern NSW and southeast Qld this week. Some areas along the coast could see more than 100mm falling in the space of two days. Image: Forecast accumulated rain this week, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. This week’s rain generally won’t be enough to cause widespread flooding, although localised areas of flash flooding are possible, particularly along the coastal fringes. In addition to the rain, a surge of blustery southerly winds and large waves will move up the NSW coast on Wednesday and Thursday then into southeast Qld on Friday. Image: 28-Day Rainfall Calendar on the Weatherzone app for Newcastle, NSW. Severe weather warnings may be issued for rain, wind and waves throughout the week, so be sure to check the latest warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information in this weather system.
28 Apr 2025, 1:34AM UTC
Mesoscale low drenches NSW Hunter, Central Coast regions
Newcastle and parts of the NSW Central Coast and Hunter forecast districts received very heavy rain and gale force winds over the weekend, as a mesoscale low formed over the area. A mesoscale low is a relatively small, localised low pressure system area that is larger than individual thunderstorms, but smaller than the broad-scale weather pattern with which it is associated. You can see the swirling vortex of rain and storms briefly forming an eye reminiscent of a tropical cyclone just north of Newcastle on Sunday afternoon in the radar loop below (while Sunday's system may appear similar to a tropical cyclone, the underlying dynamics are fundamentally different). Image: Six-hour radar loop from midday to 6pm for coastal NSW on Sunday, April 27, 2025. It was during that period in the early afternoon that the highest wind gust of 93 km/h was recorded at the beachside weather station of Newcastle Nobbys. Meanwhile, some of the notable 24-hour rainfall observations to 9am Monday included: 154mm Mandalong (a rural area just west of Lake Macquarie) 139mm in the southern Newcastle suburb of Windale 135mm at Lake Macquarie-Cooranbong 134mm at Mount Barrington, a 1555m summit on the Barrington Tops, about two hours northwest of Newcastle Sydney also had a wet weekend, with falls of 25mm and 38mm in the 24 hours to 9am Sunday and Monday respectively. That brought the city’s April rainfall to 140.3mm - the third of four months to date in 2025 with above-average rainfall, after five of the last six months of 2024 saw below-average totals. But the main impacts of the weekend’s wild weather were felt just north of Sydney, an hour or two up the M1 freeway and slightly further afield. The NSW SES performed 16 flood rescues over the weekend, and a Flood Watch is in place for parts of the Mid North Coast, Central Coast and Hunter catchments. The wild weekend weather came just days after a magnitude 4.6 earthquake struck the Hunter region, with no damage reported but shaking felt as far north as Port Macquarie and as far south as Wollongong. As for the week ahead, further rain is expected along already sodden stretches of the NSW coastline, with another 100 mm set to fall in some locations. Both Sydney and Newcastle can expect persistent showers all the way through till at least Sunday, with showers increasing midweek as a coastal trough deepens. Other parts of the NSW coast also face an extended period of umbrella weather, with the far South Coast likely to see the lightest falls.