Australian Weather

Today, 1:04AM UTC

Dangerously stormy days lie ahead for eastern Australia throughout much of the working week, with the potential for some storms to bring damaging wind gusts and possible flash flooding. The coming stormy weather follows a weekend during which many parts of eastern Australia experienced widespread heavy rainfall totals over a short time period, including: 72.2mm at Mt Ginini in the ACT, the heaviest fall at the weather station at the crest of the Brindabella Range on the NSW/ACT border since 2021. Most of the rain fell in an intense two-hour burst around twilight on Saturday Melbourne had 31mm to 9 am Monday, with around 20mm of that falling within a space of about 15 minutes just after midday on Sunday. Parts of northeastern Tasmania saw between 50mm and 100mm to 9am Monday, with the rain falling in a series of heavy downpours throughout Sunday morning and afternoon. The Gold Coast copped 100mm to 9am Monday at the Gold Coast Seaway weather station, and while rain fell quite steadily throughout the day, there were periods of intense downpours, such as when 31.6mm fell in the half hour after 10am Sunday. Tweed Heads (Duranbah), on the NSW side of the Qld/NSW border, also topped the century mark to 9am Monday, with 102mm. Image: Two-hour loop of rain and storms over Victoria and Tasmania from 11 am to 1 pm AEDT Sunday, January 12, 2025. While the weekend’s storms and heavy rainfall were caused by troughs associated with a broad area of low pressure across southeastern Australia, this week's coming storms will have another meteorological element added to the mix: stronger steering winds. Steering winds are winds at an elevation of about 3000 metres which direct the movement of weather systems. As steering winds from the west pick up at mid-levels of the atmosphere this week, the extra energy and wind shear will likely make storms more severe as the next trough moves through. Storms are possible across a broad area of the southeast from Monday onwards, but the period from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning looks like the most dangerous period – including large population centres like Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Image: The stormiest time in the east will likely be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. We'll keep you updated as the week unfolds and please check our warnings page for the latest.

12 Jan 2025, 2:01AM UTC

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dikeledi was declared at 11:00am AEDT on Saturday 11th of January just off the northeast coast of Madagascar, after having been a tropical storm in the southwest Indian Ocean for the last 6 days.  Though TC Dikeledi is the first cyclone of 2025, it isn’t the first tropical cyclone of the South West Indian Ocean 2024-2025 season. TC Chido had skimmed the north of Madagascar and devasted the French island of Mayotte between the 9th and 15th December in 2024. TC Chido was the most devastating TC for the region in the past 90 years, resulting in more than 675 million US dollars worth of damages, thousands of people injured and tragically 39 deaths.  The consequences of TC Dikeledi look to be more severe according to local meteorologists, despite it not expected to be as strong. The regions of Diana, Sava and northern Sofia have red cyclone alerts whilst coastal Boeny is in a yellow alert and the rest of Sofia, Boeny and northern Analanjirofo are in a green alert (Fig. 1). These alerts encompass widespread flooding, riverine flooding and landslides for the north of the country, with rainfall totals over 100mm and 130km/h winds expected. Storm surges and swells over 8 meters are also forecast for the northeast coast.  Fig. 1) Cyclone Warning issued by Meteo Madagascar on 11/01/2025 for the next 22-hours  TC Dikeledi has crossed over the Diana, Sava and Sophia regions of far northern Madagascar with 140km/h winds gusting at 170km/h. Local rainfall of 50mm/h has been observed over areas of the country’s east coast, but the limited available weather stations make it difficult to know the rainfall total at cyclone affected areas. However, models are showing 24hr rainfall exceeding 150mm over the north and eastern coasts of the country, and around 300mm on the western flank of the system (Fig. 2).   Fig. 2) 24-hour rainfall accumulation forecast from 11am AEDT, as shown by ECMWF.  Flooding of low-lying areas still serves as a very great risk, with it resulting in flash flooding due to insufficient drainage, landslides and an increase in water-borne diseases such as dengue fever, cholera and malaria. More than 22,500 children are at risk of injury, illness or losing their homes and school according to Save the Children.  TC Dikeledi is forecast to move parallel to the Madagascar’s northwest coastline as it moves through the Mozambique channel. Whilst in the channel, the cyclone is expected to intensify into a category 3 tropical cyclone, before moving south of the country and back into the Indian Ocean (Fig. 3).   Fig. 3) TC Dikeledi’s forecast track through the Mozambique channel, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center   Though it will not reach the same category and hazardous status as TC Chido did last December, TC Dikeledi serves as a reminder that a disaster isn’t defined by how strong a particular hazard or storm is, but how widespread and devastating its impact is.