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A low-pressure system is causing strong winds & rain over southeast SA, TAS, VIC & southern & eastern NSW. Cool moist winds brings showers to western SA & southwest WA. High pressure keeps elsewhere dry.
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Today, 4:10AM UTC
Respite for Argentina after coldest July in a decade
It is no surprise that the southern provinces of Argentina are prone to harsh and cold winters, given that they are the closest land mass to the Antarctic. However, this winter has been exceptionally cold with polar waves being pushed to the far north of the country and into Bolivia. The past fortnight has recorded negative temperatures for almost every Argentinian province: Buenos Aires’ capital of La Plata dropped to –5.7 degrees on the 10th of July Catamarca’s capital of San Fernando del Valle de Catamarca reached –7.3 degrees on the 11th of July Chaco’s capital of Resistencia dropped to –2.5 degrees on the 10th of July Chubut’s second capital of Comodoro Rivadavia dropped to –2.4 degrees on the 7th of July Cordoba dropped to –5.8 degrees on the 7th of July Entre Rios’ capital of Parana dropped to –2.0 degrees on the 9th of July Formosa dropped to –1.0 degrees on the 12th of July La Pampa’s capital of Santa Rosa dropped to –6.6 degrees on the 8th of July La Rioja dropped to –5.1 degrees on the 11th of July Mendoza dropped to –4.0 degrees on the 9th of July Neuquen dropped to –7.2 degrees on the 7th of July Rio Negro’s capital of Viedma dropped to –2.8 degrees on the 7th of July Salta dropped to –5.0 degrees on the 14th of July San Juan dropped to –7.5 degrees on the 9th of July San Luis dropped to –2.9 degrees on the 12th of July San Cruz’s capital of Rio Gallegos dropped to –11.2 degrees on the 6th of July Santa Fe’s second capital of Rosario dropped to –6.1 degrees on the 10th of July Santiago del Estero dropped to –5.2 degrees on the 13th of July Tierra del Fuego Antartida e Islas del Atlantico Sur’s capital of Ushuaia reached –3.7 degrees on the 6th of July Altogether very cold, with some cities like La Plata seeing a record cold July, averaging 3.4 degrees below the monthly average. Fig. 1) Map of Argentina showing the lowest recorded July 2024 temperature at various provincial capitals Many images have been circulating the internet of frozen waves, rivers, streams and even animals, as the latest polar wave pushed the cold and dry Antarctic air over South America. The good news is that this cold spell has come to an end, with polar jet being pushed further south and the hot northern air enveloping the region. Crazier than the extreme cold is the extreme heat this change is bringing. It’s actually being called a heat wave, as some locations in South America are receiving summer heat in the middle of July! In Argentina, the cities of Formosa, Resistencia and Santiago del Estero peaked at 32.2, 33.0 and 27.0 degrees respectively yesterday (19th of July). Temperatures are expected to rise throughout the week before the northerly winds are cut off and cool southerly air filters back into the country’s northern half. Fig. 2) Maximum temperature over Argentina in the past 24hrs (Servicio Meteolotogico Nactional Argentina, 2024) As we see from Fig. 3), there is a peak in the polar jet in the Pacific Ocean, and when this moves clockwise towards South America, it may bring a chance of cooler temperatures once again, though uncertainty is still high at this time. Fig. 3) A forecast of the current location of the polar jet (NOAA, 2024)
19 Jul 2024, 6:29AM UTC
Adelaide's teasing 10-day rain streak
Steady rain fell either side of lunchtime on Friday in Adelaide with further showers likely into the evening, meaning the South Australian capital has now recorded rain for 10 days straight. But locals in Adelaide and much of southern SA would still have reason to feel frustrated. That's because while rain has been coming frequently, the totals have not added up to much. To 9 am Friday (so not including today's rain), Adelaide had seen 12 wet days to date in July 2024. That's right on average. Yet the falls have been fairly light, and the July running total of 28 mm to 9 am Friday is less than half the long-term monthly average for July of 65.6 mm. As we write this story at 4 pm Friday local time, a further 5.2 mm has been recorded today. But Adelaide's total monthly rainfall is still barely half the average, despite now exceeding the average number of rain days. This might appear to be nitpicking. Sometimes it rains heavily, sometimes it rains frequently, sometimes you get both. In Australia’s driest capital city, you take what you can get. But Adelaide gardens and reservoirs have been desperate for a really good soaking of the type Perth received this week when it received 43.8 mm, its wettest day in over a year. Image: Adelaide rain graph for the last 12 months. Indeed, Adelaide has seen just two days since January with 10 mm or more. Those were both in June. Little wonder that Adelaide's (and SA's) largest water storage – Mt Bold Reservoir – is just 30% full at present. And don't forget that Adelaide had a 46-day rainless streak from late January to mid-March. The good news for those hoping for more rain is that further showery weather can be expected over the weekend. A brief dry break will follow early in the new week before more rain arrives midweek next week as the next cold front arrives. That system brings with it the possibility of heavier falls. The other good news is that all southern SA forecast districts have seen at least some rain so far this Friday. Only the North East Pastoral and North West Pastoral forecasts districts have been dry.
18 Jul 2024, 11:57PM UTC
Wild blizzards and a 'feels like' temp of minus 21
Blizzards are in the forecast for the high country of New South Wales and Victoria for the coming weekend, and in case you’re wondering, "blizzard" is actually a technical weather term in the Australian context. On the BoM's severe weather definition page, blizzard conditions are defined as "strong winds in conjunction with blowing or falling snow with an expected reduction in horizontal visibility to less than 200 metres". In short, it's going to be wild out there in the Aussie alpine country, and indeed, it already is. Overnight, a gust of 91 km/h was reported at Thredbo Top Station, which is Australia's highest weather station at an elevation of 1957m. Peak gusts of up to 125 km/h are expected from Friday night into Saturday. And here's a statistic to chill your bones: At 7:30 am on Friday, Thredbo Top Station was –6.2°C with winds gusting up to 72 km/h. The wind and the air temperature combined to make an apparent or "feels like" temp of –20.9°C! For snow lovers, there's no avoiding the fact that conditions will be highly unpleasant for skiing or snowboarding at the resorts in the next 48 hours or so, with many lifts expected to be closed or on wind-hold. It will also be extremely dangerous in the back country, with travel beyond the resort boundaries strongly discouraged. Image: Wild winds and blowing snow on the upper slopes of Thredbo ahead of a snowfall. The positive news is that widespread snowfalls are likely. Indeed, this weekend should see the heaviest snowfalls of the season to date, with the white stuff really coming down on Friday night into Saturday. Between 30 and 60 centimetres of snow should accumulate by Monday morning at the major Australian ski resorts, creating the best conditions of the season for anyone lucky enough to be heading down this week. Check our snow page for the latest forecasts, cams and more. As the worst of the wild, wintry weather sets in during Friday and continues across southeastern Australia on Saturday, strong winds and cold, showery weather can be expected well beyond the mountains. Severe Weather Warnings and/or Gale Warnings have already been issued for all southern states and the ACT. You'll also find that word "blizzard" in the warnings for the alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, so please check our warnings page for the latest. Image: Perisher Valley car park early on Friday morning, with heavy snowfalls still a few hours away but strong winds already set in. Source: Steve Smith. Overall, this will not be a great weekend for snow sports, or to be travelling on the roads in the high country and many places beyond it. But this is the sort of storm that will set up the snow season after a sluggish start. In addition to the heavy snowfalls, strong winds tend to blow snow that fills in gaps on the higher slopes where there are boulders and other obstacles, enabling more terrain beyond the snowmaking areas to open.
Weather in Business
05 Jul 2024, 2:14AM UTC
Unusual wind direction to elevate wind power
After a lull in the winds this week, wind power is set to pick up from rock bottom as a rare easterly wind surge impacts Qld, NSW and SA. Wind power has been slack this week across the National Electricity Market (NEM) in response to a stubborn high-pressure system which has parked itself over the Bight. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) at 10am on Friday, July 5 This high will continue to sit over the Bight and Tas, until it finally moves east into the Tasman Sea on Monday, July 8. The image below shows that we saw low wind power in the order of 30 to 60 GWh/day in response to this high earlier this week, but wind has picked up slightly to 100 GWh/day on Thursday, July 4. Image: Wind contribution to generation (GW) during the last 30 days leading up to Thursday, July 4. Source: OpenNEM Usually with high pressure sitting over the Bight, wind power should continue to be low into next week. However, the images below show a rare easterly wind surge elevating winds slightly across parts of Qld, NSW and SA from Friday and possibly Vic on Monday. Images: Instantaneous wind gust forecast between Friday, July 5 and Thursday, July 11 While it is common for easterly winds to move over Australia, it is the strength of the wind that is unusual. The strongest winds over southern Australia, typically originate from the north or south, while for the east coast, westerly winds are typically the strongest. These winds are normally associated with cold fronts sweeping over the country. This weekend we will see easterly winds strengthen as they feed into a cut of low over SA cradled by a high-pressure system in the Bight. The easterly wind surge will not match the strength of winds associated with cold fronts, so wind power will remain low to medium across Qld, NSW. In South Australia, wind speeds over the weekend should be strong, especially about the Flinders Ranges and western slopes from Saturday morning. As of 2:50pm Friday, there is a damaging wind warning out for these areas. Wind farms near Port Augusta could see winds reaching 90km/h from Saturday morning, with the potential for cut outs. The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week. The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week. Image: Weatherzone’s Opticast Wind Farm Output for the NEM from Friday, July 5 to Friday, July 12. The stronger easterly winds in these states, will also be accompanied by a thick northeasterly cloudband stretching from the Coral Sea down to SA. You can see in the image below that it has already begun thickening up and producing rainfall in these areas. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 11:50am AEST on Friday, July 5 This cloudband is likely to reduce solar output in these states between Friday and early next week. So, when is decent wind power coming? You can see in the image above wind power is forecast to increase above 150 GWh day later next week in the NEM, with strong cold front finally able to make its way across southern Australia. To find out more, please visit our contact page or email us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
01 Jul 2024, 2:25AM UTC
Low wind power week coinciding with high demand
A prolonged period of low wind will impact the National Electricity Market (NEM) this week, which is coinciding with bitterly cold weather driving up energy demand in the southeast. The weather systems appear to be stuck, with record challenging high-pressure expected to sit over Tas for an extended period. The images below show this stubborn high-pressure system sitting over Tas or the Bight for at least 6 to 7 days. Images: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) on Monday, July 1 (top), Wednesday, July 3 (middle) and Saturday, July 6 (bottom). This high-pressure system should prevent fronts or fierce winds from crossing southern Australia this week, bringing a prolonged period of light wind for the NEM. The impact of the high pressure is already being felt in the market, with wind power only contributing 656MW or 2.2% to generation at 10:30am Monday, July 1. Image: Wind power contribution to generation for 7 days leading up to Monday, July 1. Source: OpenNEM You can see in the image above that this lull in wind power comes after a windy week, which was caused by several cold fronts crossing the region. The light winds are set to continue for most of the week for the NEM, especially in the wind generation areas in Vic and Tas, which are closest to the central high pressure. Unfortunately, this will coincide with extremely cold nighttime temperatures across Vic and Tas, with Melbourne set to see a run of 5 to 6 mornings below 4°C from Tuesday night. Some good news is that for SA, Qld, NSW and the ACT wind generation areas, winds should pick up later in the week as a surge of easterly winds feeds into a cut off low in SA. Image: Instantaneous wind gusts at 1pm on Friday, July 5, according to ECMWF This is in response to a rare ‘northeast cloudband’ which should cause thick cloud to stretch from the Coral Sea down to SA later this week. The cloudband should reduce solar output across parts of QLD, NSW and SA and bring significant rain totals to these areas. Looking ahead, wind should remain light across Vic and Tas for at least the next 7 days. The models are suggesting that a strong cold front and decent wind could pass across southeastern Australia mid- next week. Weatherzone Business, a DTN company, supplies precise weather intelligence to over 75% of the National Energy Market (NEM) participants and is the trusted provider for Australia’s Market Operator. To find out more, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
