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A line of thunderstorms associated with a surface trough is passing over eastern SA. A moist and unstable air mass is fueling scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley, the NT and much of QLD. A moist onshore flow is sending light showers across WA's south coast.
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Today, 4:05AM UTC
Australia faces high fire danger this summer
Australia recorded its warmest spring on record, with also severe rainfall deficiencies occurring across parts of the country, setting the stage for high fire risk this summer. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC) released their summer bushfire outlook for 2024 on Thursday, November 28, showing large areas of the NT, Vic and parts of NSW, WA and SA have an increased risk of bushfires this summer. The red shading on the map below shows areas that have an increased risk of fires over the next three months. The remaining grey areas on the map have a near-normal risk of summer fires, according to the AFAC outlook. Image: Australian seasonal bushfire outlook for spring 2024. Source: AFAC The AFAC outlook shows elevated fire danger across five states and territories because of: Forecast above average temperatures The Bureau has forecast drier conditions in mid to late summer across much of Australia, apart from the east of the country which should continue to be wet. Severe rainfall deficiencies and drought across parts of southern Australia. Winter spring rainfall which has led to substantial fuel loads in some areas The warmest spring on record which helped dry out and make materials flammable Unburnt areas across southern NT Severe or serious rainfall deficiencies have been observed in northwest, southwest and far southern WA, southern and southeast SA, western and northeast Vic, southern NSW and the northwest and coastal fringes of Tas in the 15 months leading up to November 2024. Image: Rainfall deficiencies during the 15-month period between August 1, 2023, and October 31, 2023. Source: BOM The severe drought in these areas has resulted in large amounts of dry or dead plant material which are very flammable. A lack of autumn and winter spring rainfall was also observed across northeast Vic, the Mornington Peninsula, southwest Gippsland and Greater Melbourne and parts of central NSW, increasing the fire risk in these areas during summer. Meanwhile normal fire risk is forecast for northern and eastern parts of Australia due to the imminent monsoon arrival in the north and above average rainfall forecast in the east. These areas should still remain vigilant during the summer months, if this wetter-than-average weather does not eventuate, the risk of fires will also be higher than normal. Title image credit: iStock /Binikins
Today, 12:26AM UTC
What to expect for Australia's first week of summer
After a stormy November across much of the country – especially in large parts of northern and eastern Australia in the final week of the month – the unstable pattern is set to continue into the first week of December. As the 2024/2025 summer kicks off, widespread storms will continue across the country due to a range of factors, with the two key elements being: An array of surface-based low pressure troughs interacting with a series of upper-level troughs Above-average sea surface temperatures to the northwest and southeast of Australia, which will supply ample moisture for storms due to enhanced evaporation It’s worth taking a look at Australia's sea surface temps to illustrate the degree to which they are contributing to recent and current weather. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies (difference compared to the average) for Australian waters on Saturday, November 30. Source: BoM. Of particular note is the relatively large area of water off northwestern Australia which is between two and four degrees above the long-term average. We saw the effects of that broad area of warm ocean last week, as a colossal conveyor belt of tropical moisture caused storms and areas of heavy rain across roughly half the country. Some of the newsworthy rainfall observations over the weekend included: Falls exceeding 200mm within 24 hours in the Gold Coast hinterland, where flooding was reported. Canberra's heaviest rainfall day of the year to date, with 40.4mm to 9am Sunday. Heavy rain and storms that extended all the way south to Victoria, Tasmania, and to southeastern parts of SA. Image: 28-Day Rainfall & Temperature Calendars on the Weatherzone app for Cairns, QLD. The coming week's rainfall totals may not be as extreme as last week's in many places, but it's definitely set to be another active week of stormy weather – and not just in the tropics and eastern Australia. Image: Accumulated rainfall totals across Australia predicted by the ECMWF model for the week ending Sunday, December 8. Indeed there were already active storms on Monday morning in Central Australia, far western Queensland and some fairly arid parts of South Australia. Image: Combined two-hour radar and satellite loop for central parts of the continent on the morning of Monday, December 2, 2024.
Today, 12:22AM UTC
Australia registers warmest spring on record
Australia just had its warmest spring on record with a mean temperature more than 2°C above the long-term average. The national mean temperature in spring 2024 – which is the average of 112 weather stations spread out across the country – was about 24.58°C. This is exceptionally high for spring, coming in at 2.08°C above the 1961-90 long-term average. This huge anomaly made spring 2024 Australia’s warmest spring in records dating back to 1910, beating the previous record of +2.03°C from 2020. Image: Australia’s spring mean temperature anomalies between 1910 and 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Nowhere in Australia had a cooler-than-average spring, and most of the country experienced average spring temperatures that were in the top 10 percent of historical records. The map below shows the observed mean temperature deciles for Australia in spring 2024. The orange shading shows that temperatures were above average almost everywhere, while the darkest shading reveals that parts of four states and one territory experienced record-breaking warmth during the season. Image: Observed mean temperature deciles during spring 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Here’s how spring 2024 ranked out of 115 years of observations (1910 to 2024) for each state and territory, based on the mean temperature anomaly relative to 1961-90: Queensland: +2.47°C - warmest on record WA: +2.02°C - 3rd warmest on record NSW/ACT: +2.17°C - 8th warmest on record SA: +2.15°C - 5th warmest on record NT: +1.70°C - 4th warmest on record Victoria: +1.60°C - 6th warmest on record Tasmania: +0.76°C - 9th warmest on record Last season’s exceptional air temperature anomaly was partially driven by the influence of abnormally warm oceans surrounding the country. While the final data isn’t yet available for the whole season, sea surface temperatures in the Australian region were running at record-breaking levels through the middle of the season and have remained well above average in recent weeks. Image: Sea surface temperature anomaly on the final day of spring 2024, showing abnormally warm water surrounding Australia. Source: NOAA Australia’s record-breaking spring warmth is one piece of a larger puzzle that reveals a broader picture of global warming in 2024. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is on track to become Earth’s hottest year on record.