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A trough is generating scattered showers & storms over southern WA, as well as producing intense heat over northern WA. Moist onshore winds with a low pressure trough are bringing isolated showers & storms to north & southeast QLD. Settled elsewhere with high pressure.
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03 Dec 2022, 12:24AM UTC
Australia's heat engine firing up
WA's Pilbara region is sometimes referred to as Australia's heat engine because of the hot air generated there during summer, which is transported across the country by troughs and fronts. Image: Temperature at 850hPa (about 1.5km above the ground) and MSLP at 5pm AEDT Saturday 3rd. The Pilbara is a desert region which makes it easier for the sun to raise the temperature of the ground compared to grassy or forested regions. This is because when moisture evaporates, it cools the nearby air – the way sweating helps cool our skin. A grassy or forested area can evaporate moisture from the soil and from plants. But with little moisture in the ground and little vegetation over the deserts, the sun can more easily raise the temperature of the ground, which then helps heat the air above it as seen in the image above. Image: Vegetation index on 1st December 2022 showing deserts and vegetated regions. Courtesy NASA. Hot air from the northwest of Australia is transported to the southeast by winds blowing from the northwest ahead of troughs and cold fronts as they sweep across the country from west to east as seen in the following map. That's what's happening this weekend as a trough and cold front begin to drag hot air from WA across central and southeast Australia. Much of Australia just had a cold spring because the warm waters to the northwest of WA provided abundant moisture that led to thick cloud and heavy rain over southeast Australia. But now that the eastern Indian Ocean has cooled, less moisture is available to bring the cooling cloud and rain, so it's just hot dry air and clear skies ahead of the trough. Image: Change in sea surface temperature at the end of spring. Courtesy Bureau of Meteorology. While inland towns will experience warmer conditions (above 35C and 40C), warmth will make its way to southern capital cities with Adelaide forecast to reach 33C today and 34C tomorrow, and Melbourne 31C today and 34C tomorrow. Winds will change to cooler southwesterlies behind the trough and front, and bring cloud cover, which will cool southeast SA and VIC on Monday and push the warm air northward. Adelaide is forecast to reach only 22C and Melbourne 20C on Monday, making for a large contrast in temperatures.
02 Dec 2022, 10:35PM UTC
Pumping early summer surf lashes into Southeast Queensland
Cold weather under a thick blanket of cloud and brisk winds was accompanied by large, summery surf across southeast Queensland to end the working week. The surf could have been mistaken for a typical summer cyclone swell breaking across the Gold Coast on Friday. Yet no cyclones were to be found on the synoptic charts. A quickly deepening low pressure system off the southeast of Queensland on Thursday and Friday (as seen in the synoptic chart below) generated gales directed towards the northern NSW and southern Queensland coastlines. Synoptic chart on Friday afternoon showing a low off the southeast Queensland coast with east-to-southeasterly winds generating large swell towards the coast. A large swell reaching a peak of about 7 metres moved into the coast into Friday, with maximum wave heights reaching as high as 16 metres off K’Gari Island (Wide Bay), and 14 metres offshore of Brisbane (off Stradbroke Island). While Severe Weather Warnings for dangerous surf were issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, experienced surfers braved mountains of white water and torrents of moving water for double to triple overhead surf. A gale force S/SSW wind, which later swung more SSE, maintained reasonably clean conditions on the face for those willing to risk body and board in the huge surf. Large surf breaking at Outside Kirra on the Gold Coast. (Swellnet Kirra Surfcam) As the weekend gets going, Saturday can expect swell around the 4-metre mark, bringing overhead to double overhead surf to the southeast Queensland and northeast NSW region. Sunday will see further reduction in size into the 2-3 metre range, still maintaining plenty of good surf, and hazardous beach conditions for the less experienced with lots of water moving across the beaches. Winds will generally remain in a south-to-southeasterly direction, maintaining reasonable conditions across the points. A Severe Weather Warning is still in place for southeast Queensland for coastal parts stretching from the NSW-QLD border north to the northern end of K’Gari (Fraser Island), with hazardous surf warnings also in place from Fraser Island Coast to Coffs Coast today, becoming constrained to the Byron Coast on Sunday for NSW. Keep track of the latest warnings at Weatherzone.
02 Dec 2022, 12:41AM UTC
Australia's first 45C of the season imminent
Temperatures are about to soar over northwestern Australia, and we should see the continent’s first 45ºC of the season by early next week. A broad and stagnant area of low pressure over the northern inland of WA will allow hot air to build and intensify over the next several days. Most forecast models suggest that temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid forties from this weekend, before possibly exceeding 45ºC this Sunday and on most days next week. The impending heat has prompted a Severe to Extreme heatwave warning for parts of WA’s north and Interior. Image: Three-day heatwave outlook starting from this Sunday. Source: Bureau of Meteorology This early-summer heatwave is expected to bring Australia’s first 45ºC temperature of the season after the country experienced an unusually mild spring. The highest temperature in Australia during spring 2022 was 44.5ºC at Wyndham Airport on October 24. This was the lowest spring maximum temperature in Australia since 2011. Image: Forecast daily maximum temperature on Monday, December 5, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Based on current forecasts, 45ºC is not likely to occur in Australia until December 4 or later this year. This would be Australia’s latest first 45ºC of the season since 1999, when it took until December 8 to first hit the mark. Australia’s highest December temperature on record was 49.9ºC at Nullarbor in 2019. This record is unlikely to be challenged during this heatwave.
Weather in Business
08 Sep 2022, 5:30AM UTC
Record August wind power in Australia's National Electricity Market
August was a record-breaking month for wind power in the National Electricity Market, with Australia’s renewable energy sector continuing to grow at rapid pace. August was a windy month with frequent cold fronts and low-pressure systems sweeping across southeastern Australia. This abundance of wind created an ideal month for wind power generation in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Wind power had a record-breaking month in the NEM in August, with 2,752 GWh of generation beating the previous monthly record of 2,574 GWh set in June 2022. The last three months have all been in the top four most productive months on record for wind power in the NEM. The graph above shows that monthly wind power generation has been increasing at a steady rate since 2007, driven by a boom in wind farm installations across Australia. The windiest day in August 2022 was on Thursday, August 4, when wind power contributed 14.6 GWh to the grid, which was around 25% of demand that day. August 4 also set a new record for instantaneous wind production in the NEM, with contribution to the grid peaking at nearly 30% of total demand. The new record was set at 8:40pm pm Thursday, August 4, when 7,305 GWh was being contributed to the grid. The satellite image below shows a complex low-pressure system sitting in the Great Australian Bight on August 4, extending a series of cold fronts and troughs over southeastern Australia. Image: Enhanced visible/infrared satellite image showing a northwest cloudband over southeastern Australia at 2pm AEST on Thursday, August 4 The series of systems moving over southeastern Australia kept winds strong all day, producing a day of record-breaking wind power. How Weatherzone Business forecasts wind energy and its power. Weatherzone Business, a DTN company, offers wind and power generation forecasting to assist in determining your wind farm’s output, reducing costly errors. Whether you have an existing windfarm, or looking for an optimal wind farm location, we provide crucial data to give you greater awareness of your generation capacity. From vertical wind profiling, to identifying alternative scenarios and RAMP events, we have you covered. We can assist with: Rapid Update Forecasting– 5-minute forecasting up to 72 hours and hourly forecasting out to 10 days for full awareness. RAMP Event Prediction- Understand when significant generation impacts will occur so you can mitigate risk. Advanced Generation Forecasting-Multi-level wind profiles, meta-data management and input data QC ensures precision. We work closely with you, pushing the boundaries of science and technology, to identify and fulfil your individual business needs. A tailored and consolidated solution, making your everyday more effective. For more information, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
25 Aug 2022, 7:08AM UTC
Solar power on the rise as spring approaches
The warm and sunny months of the year are fast approaching, with the potential for solar generation set to increase in the coming months. As we near spring, the days are slowly becoming longer and warmer as we approach the spring equinox in late September. The spring equinox is the tipping point where days become longer than nights in the Southern Hemisphere, increasing the potential for solar generation across Australia. Data from OpenNEM shows that solar output (rooftop and utility) was the highest in summer, followed closely by spring, in the NEM each year since 2018. The graphs below show the total seasonal solar contribution (rooftop and utility) to the NEM. Images: Seasonal comparison of Rooftop (top) and Utility (bottom) solar power (GW/h). Data sourced: OpenNEM, AEMO, APVI. The graph above shows that solar generation is the lowest in winter each year, as shorter days narrow the production window. These graphs also show that total solar generation has been increasing year-on-year since 2018, driven by a boom in solar installations across Australia. Solar generation typically becomes a large source of energy in spring, when the days are longer and sunnier, and temperatures are moderate, keeping demand low. Earlier this year, with solar briefly overtaking coal as the primary energy source for the first time in August. The graph below shows solar power dispatch exceeding coal at around midday on Friday, August 19 and the following Sunday. Image: Solar versus coal power dispatch (MW), Source: Financial review So, will this trend of increased solar generation continue this spring? There are several climate drivers at play this spring which could lead to above average cloud cover and rainfall across much of Australia: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in spring is forecast to increase cloud and rainfall across much of Australia, particularly the southeast. The looming possibility of a third La Nina in spring and summer could increase cloud cover and rainfall across northern and eastern Australia. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is forecast to be positive for much of spring, which could enhance rainfall and bring increased cloud cover in eastern Australia. The map below shows the rainfall outlook for spring 2022, with large areas in easter, central and northern Australia expected to see above average rainfall and cloud. Image: ACCESS-S2 chance of exceeding median rainfall for spring 2022. Source: Bureau of Meteorology So, while the days are getting longer, increased cloud cover could reduce solar output in spring and possibly summer this year.
