Australian Weather

24 Oct 2025, 5:02AM UTC

A dynamic mix of springtime weather will affect several states and territories in Australia this weekend, with widespread thunderstorms, heatwave conditions and elevated fire danger. The satellite images below show that thunderstorms and bushfires have already been affecting parts of central and northern Australia this week. Storms over WA and the Interior on Thursday brought 5-15mm of rain to the few rain gauges scattered over the remote outback region, including: 15mm at Giles, WA (wettest October day in eight years) 14mm at Wulungurru, NT (wettest October day in eight years) 6mm at Yulara Ap, NT (wettest October day in three years) Image: Composite satellite and lightning images from Thursday afternoon, showing widespread thunderstorms across eastern WA, and bushfire smoke across northern Queensland and the eastern NT. Nearly 400,000 lightning strikes have already been detected from these inland storms since early Thursday, and lots more lightning is on the way in the coming days. Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the WA interior and western areas of SA on Friday, before spreading further east into SA on Saturday and then deeper into southeastern and eastern Australia on Sunday. Thunderstorms could become severe over parts of WA, the NT and SA on Friday and Saturday, bringing the risk of heavy rainfall quickly deteriorating road conditions, as well as damaging wind gusts that could disrupt transport routes. The severe thunderstorm risk will be lower on Sunday as the storms shift their focus further east, although heavy rain remains a risk for parts of Vic, NSW and Qld. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over the next three days, some of which will fall from thunderstorms. Satellite images captured on Thursday also revealed large plumes of smoke from a number of active fires burning across northern Qld and the NT. Image: Visible images of bushfire smoke over Qld and the NT on Thursday, October 23, 2025. As fire services battle to contain already ongoing fires, they will also have to manage intensifying heatwave conditions and worsening fire weather in the coming days. Severe to Extreme heatwave conditions are forecast over parts of Qld, the NT and northern WA over the weekend, with consecutive days reaching the low forties in some areas. Image: Severe-to-Extreme Heatwave conditions forecast between Friday and Sunday, October 24-26, 2025, parts of Qld, the NT and WA. Hot, dry and windy conditions will maintain High fire danger ratings across large areas of northern and eastern Australia in the coming days. A cooling southerly change moving up through NSW on Monday and extending into Queensland on Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures and more manageable conditions next week. This southerly change will however bring a sudden wind change that could cause erratic fire behaviour, potentially worsening fire conditions briefly before they improve.

24 Oct 2025, 2:19AM UTC

The Australian region is primed for severe tropical cyclones this season, despite an ongoing trend of reduced tropical cyclone activity over Australian waters in recent decades. Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from the start of November to the end of April. During this six-month period, the Australian region usually sees around 9 to 10 tropical cyclones, with about five of these becoming severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) and four systems making landfall. Image: Tropical cyclone season averages for the Australian region. Tropical cyclone activity decreasing near Australia The number of tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region each season has decreased in recent decades. Since 1980, the total number of tropical cyclones per season has been reduced by about one system every 11 years. However, there has not been a similar drop in the number of severe tropical cyclones, which means the proportion of systems that become severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) in each season has increased. Seasonal tropical cyclone numbers are also influenced by El Niño and La Niña, with La Niña years typically producing more tropical cyclones near Australia and El Niño years often bringing fewer Australian cyclones. Image: Tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region between 1980 and 2024, including the long-term trend in cyclone activity and identification of La Niña and El Niño seasons. The cause of Australia’s declining tropical cyclone activity in recent decades is an active area of research. It is likely due to a combination of natural variability and climate change. What to expect this season Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts are difficult because there is usually a lot of variability from season to season. However, looking at how readily available the key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation will be in the season ahead can provide useful insights into what to expect. The key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation are: Warm sea surface temperatures of 26.5°C or higher Low wind shear, meaning wind speed and direction doesn’t change too much with height An existing area of low pressure and convective activity (a cluster of thunderstorms) This season will have plenty of warm water and convective activity to spawn tropical cyclones, thanks to above average sea surface temperatures surrounding most of northern Australia. A weak La Niña-like pattern and the tail end of a negative Indian Ocean dipole will also help maintain this abnormally warm tropical water near Australia early in the season. Image: Sea surface temperature outlook for December 2025, showing abnormally warm water surrounding Australia. However, this ample cyclone fuel will be counteracted by the background influences that have underpinned the long-term decline in cyclone activity near Australia in recent decades. With all these factors considered, conditions are expected to favour a near to slightly above average number of tropical cyclones in the Australia region this season. There should also be a higher-than-average proportion of severe tropical cyclones, meaning that once systems do form, they have an increased risk of intensifying rapidly. More than half of the tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region this season could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher. One of the most important things to understand about tropical cyclones is that it only takes one to have a big impact on communities and the landscape in northern Australia. Regardless of how many tropical cyclones form near Australia this season, if you live in the tropics, be sure to have an action plan ready in case one approaches your region this season. Cyclone names this season Naming tropical cyclones in the Australian region is the responsibility of the Bureau of Meteorology and has been occurring since the 1960s. These names are assigned using a predetermined list that runs in alphabetical order and alternates between male and female names. The next 11 tropical cyclone names that will be used for systems forming in Australia’s area of responsibility are shown below, starting with Fina. Image: Tropical cyclone names to be used for the next 11 systems that form in the Australian area of responsibility. If a tropical cyclone forms in a neighboring region, such as Fiji or Indonesia, the system will be named by that country’s national meteorological service. This name is then retained if the cyclone moves into the Australian region.