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Low pressure systems and troughs across the tropics brings heavy rain and storms, heaviest over eastern Qld. Onshore winds directed by high pressure cells bring showers to eastern NSW and southern WA. High pressure keeps elsewhere mainly dry.
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Today, 3:02AM UTC
Dry year ahead possible for Australia as El Niño brews
There are early signs that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could team up to cause abnormally dry and warm weather in Australia later this year. However, the ‘autumn predictability barrier’ is blurring the outlook for now. La Niña on the way out The Pacific Ocean is currently in a La Niña state, which began in spring last year (based on Bureau of Meteorology thresholds) and peaked in strength in January this year. This La Niña is now weakening and is expected to decay further in the coming weeks, with the Pacific Ocean most likely returning to a neutral state in autumn. El Niño emerging The transition to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the Pacific Ocean this autumn opens the door for a potential switch to El Niño later this year. While this is not guaranteed, it is not uncommon for El Niño to follow La Niña after the tropical Pacific Ocean passes through a neutral phase in the middle of the year. Computer forecast guidance, including Australia’s ACCESS-S model and numerous highly regarded international models, predict that El Niño may develop in the second half of this year. The likelihood of El Niño emerging in the second half of 2026 ranges from above 90% from the Bureau's model to around 50 to 60% from other international models. Image: Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model forecast for the relative Niño3.4 index, showing a transition to El Niño in the middle of 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Autumn predictability barrier One important thing to note about the current El Niño forecasts is that predictions made at this time of year are less reliable than forecasts initiated after the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn. This period of reduced certainty is known as the ‘autumn predictability barrier’, and it means that forecasters should have a clearer idea about the likelihood of El Niño as we get closer to winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Hints at positive IOD Another factor that may influence rainfall and temperatures over Australia later this year is the IOD. Extended forecasts suggest that the IOD could enter a positive phase from the middle of this year, although like the El Niño forecast, there is a high amount of uncertainty regarding this IOD outlook. A positive IOD in the Indian Ocean is similar to El Niño in the Pacific Ocean in that they both promote abnormally warm and dry weather over Australia. Warmer and drier outlook emerging While it’s too early to know whether El Niño or a positive IOD will develop later this year, there are early signs that these two climate drivers could tip the scales towards warmer and drier weather during the second half of 2026. Monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are responding to this, hinting at abnormally warm and dry conditions over Australia during the upcoming winter. Image: Chance of wetter-than-normal conditions over Australia during June 2026. Source: Weatherzone / ECMWF SEAS5. Image: Chance of warmer-than-normal monthly average daytime temperatures over Australia during June 2026. Source: Weatherzone / ECMWF SEAS5. Weatherzone meteorologists will continue to monitor the Pacific and Indian Ocean over the coming months and provide updates on El Niño and the IOD via the Weatherzone news feed.
Today, 1:14AM UTC
Relentless heavy rain sweeps through Broome
A near-stationary, highly localised area of heavy rain has soaked the West Australian tourist town of Broome, with the Kimberley region’s largest population centre almost topping its average February rainfall in just the last 48 hours. To 9am Sunday (AWST), Broome received 41.8mm To 9am Monday, Broome received an additional 126.4mm The long-term monthly average for February (the 2nd-wettest month) is 177.0mm What’s causing the deluge? Image: Combined rain radar and satellite imagery for the area around Broome, WA, for the 12-hour period to 6:30am on Monday, February 16, 2026. You can see the overnight rainfall in the 12-hour combined radar and satellite loop above. A feed of moisture from a trough and associated tropical low pressure system is slowly being steered in a northeasterly direction. Meanwhile cloud at higher levels of the atmosphere is moving in almost the opposite direction, from east to west. This high cloud moving west is the outflow from convective (rising) air. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino points out, the loop is effectively a top-down visualisation of wind shear, where wind changes direction with height. How unusual is this weather for Broome? As mentioned above, Broome does see reasonably heavy monthly rainfall totals in the summer months. It can even see phenomenally heavy daily rainfall totals during cyclones anytime from late spring through to mid autumn. But overall, Broome’s wet season is shorter and less reliable than in locations much further north, mainly due to occasional influxes of hot, dry air from the centre of the continent during breaks in the monsoon. This week, however, the monsoon will remain the dominant broad-scale weather influence, meaning there’s potential for consistent heavy showers across the Kimberley region – and especially near the coast – for much of the week. Image: Predicted rainfall totals across Australia up until 11am on Thursday, February 19, 2026, showing heavy totals likely in northern Australia with ongoing heavy rain in the Kimberley region around Broome. Other parts of northern Australia are also in line for a good soaking this week. READ MORE: Week-long soaking ahead for northern Australia
15 Feb 2026, 3:18AM UTC
Week-long soaking ahead for northern Australia
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will affect northern Australia over the coming week, soaking large areas of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. A broad area of low pressure over Australia, featuring numerous low pressure troughs and low pressure systems, will interact with moisture-laden air to fuel the week-long soaking in the tropics. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting during the next seven days. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11:00 pm AEDT on Saturday, February 21, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While it’s difficult to know exactly where the heaviest rain will occur, current forecasts suggest WA’s western Kimberley district and Qld’s North Tropical Coast could be the focus for some of the heaviest falls. These areas have the potential to receive more than 200 mm of rain over the coming week, while a broad area of 100 mm+ rainfall is likely in between these two areas. The upcoming rain may cause flooding and road closures in all three states and territories, particularly in areas that see several days of heavy rain or intense rainfall during severe thunderstorms. Being the wet season, this type of rain is not uncommon in northern Australia at this time of year, but it may still be hazardous. Be sure to check the latest flood warnings and road closures before travelling in northern Australia over the coming week.