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Low pressure systems and troughs across the tropics brings heavy rain and storms, heaviest over northeastern Qld. Onshore winds directed by a high pressure brings showers to eastern NSW. Unstable air ahead of a cold front brings showers to parts of coastal SA.
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Today, 12:34AM UTC
Rainband teases Adelaide, dampens other parched areas
The main body of a rainband crossing southeastern Australia has slid agonisingly south of Adelaide, providing only the barest rain relief of 0.6mm relief for the parched SA capital's main West Terrace/ngayirdapira weather station. To date in 2026, Adelaide has now received just 3.4mm of rainfall. That rain has fellen on two separate rain days in February. January 2026 was totally dry in Adelaide. Just 2.8mm was recorded in December 2025, meaning the 2025/26 summer has thus far yielded a paltry 6.2mm of rain, as of 3pm on Tuesday (ACDT). Adelaide's driest summer on record was 1905-06 with just 4.0mm, when 1.7mm in December was followed by a dry January and 2.3mm in Feb. So this summer will not go down in history as Adelaide’s least rainy on record, but it has still been desperately dry. And that’s what makes this Tuesday’s rainband so frustrating for locals. Anything more than a few drops of rain would have been particularly welcome to Adelaideans after Monday's maximum of 37.3°C and an uncomfortable night afterwards, with the mercury bouncing above 30°C at 1am. Some suburbs did get a decent drop in storms that passed through about an hour after the main rainband slipped southeast. Auldana (Seaview) on the eastern fringe of the city at the foot of the Adelaide Hills received 10.8mm within just 15 minutes, while some areas immediately north of the CBD also saw 10-15mm in brief but intense downpours. However most suburbs saw less than a millimetre of rain, while others received none at all. If not Adelaide, which areas could see rain today? Image: Combined 4-hour radar and satellite loop for SE Australia early on the morning of Tuesday, February 17, 2026. As you can see on the loop above, parts of southeastern SA and southwestern Vic have saw rain earlier this Tuesday, as the rainband associated with a trough and weak cold front marched east. Southern Victoria can expect further showers throughout this afternoon, with the cool change and showers reaching Melbourne later today after hot maximums in the mid-to-high 30s across the metropolitan area. In the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday, the highest SA rainfall reading was 13mm at Kingscote on Kangaroo Island, where just 1.4mm had fallen previously in 2026. On the mainland, the highest reading was 11.6mm at Willunga, about 45 km south of the Adelaide CBD. The town of 3600 had received just 3.6mm previously this summer. Between 9am and 11am (ACDT), falls of a few millimetres were recorded in numerous locations in the state’s southeast, as well as in western Victoria. Heavier falls are still possible in some SA locations this Tuesday due to the relatively well-organised band of storms crossing the Murraylands and Upper South East forecast districts. Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia in January 2026, showing how dry the month was in areas that could see some rain this Tuesday, February 17. Source: BoM. By early afternoon, the rain and storms should have cleared South Australia. Then it will be Victoria’s turn. As in SA, rainfall accumulations in Victoria should only amount to a few millimetres at most places, however moderate totals of 10mm or more are possible as afternoon storms whip through. The rain focus will shift to Tasmania later today, with statewide falls likely, heaviest in the west.
16 Feb 2026, 3:02AM UTC
Dry year ahead possible for Australia as El Niño brews
There are early signs that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could team up to cause abnormally dry and warm weather in Australia later this year. However, the ‘autumn predictability barrier’ is blurring the outlook for now. La Niña on the way out The Pacific Ocean is currently in a La Niña state, which began in spring last year (based on Bureau of Meteorology thresholds) and peaked in strength in January this year. This La Niña is now weakening and is expected to decay further in the coming weeks, with the Pacific Ocean most likely returning to a neutral state in autumn. El Niño emerging The transition to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the Pacific Ocean this autumn opens the door for a potential switch to El Niño later this year. While this is not guaranteed, it is not uncommon for El Niño to follow La Niña after the tropical Pacific Ocean passes through a neutral phase in the middle of the year. Computer forecast guidance, including Australia’s ACCESS-S model and numerous highly regarded international models, predict that El Niño may develop in the second half of this year. The likelihood of El Niño emerging in the second half of 2026 ranges from above 90% from the Bureau's model to around 50 to 60% from other international models. Image: Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model forecast for the relative Niño3.4 index, showing a transition to El Niño in the middle of 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Autumn predictability barrier One important thing to note about the current El Niño forecasts is that predictions made at this time of year are less reliable than forecasts initiated after the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn. This period of reduced certainty is known as the ‘autumn predictability barrier’, and it means that forecasters should have a clearer idea about the likelihood of El Niño as we get closer to winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Hints at positive IOD Another factor that may influence rainfall and temperatures over Australia later this year is the IOD. Extended forecasts suggest that the IOD could enter a positive phase from the middle of this year, although like the El Niño forecast, there is a high amount of uncertainty regarding this IOD outlook. A positive IOD in the Indian Ocean is similar to El Niño in the Pacific Ocean in that they both promote abnormally warm and dry weather over Australia. Warmer and drier outlook emerging While it’s too early to know whether El Niño or a positive IOD will develop later this year, there are early signs that these two climate drivers could tip the scales towards warmer and drier weather during the second half of 2026. Monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are responding to this, hinting at abnormally warm and dry conditions over Australia during the upcoming winter. Image: Chance of wetter-than-normal conditions over Australia during June 2026. Source: Weatherzone / ECMWF SEAS5. Image: Chance of warmer-than-normal monthly average daytime temperatures over Australia during June 2026. Source: Weatherzone / ECMWF SEAS5. Weatherzone meteorologists will continue to monitor the Pacific and Indian Ocean over the coming months and provide updates on El Niño and the IOD via the Weatherzone news feed.
16 Feb 2026, 1:14AM UTC
Relentless heavy rain sweeps through Broome
A near-stationary, highly localised area of heavy rain has soaked the West Australian tourist town of Broome, with the Kimberley region’s largest population centre almost topping its average February rainfall in just the last 48 hours. To 9am Sunday (AWST), Broome received 41.8mm To 9am Monday, Broome received an additional 126.4mm The long-term monthly average for February (the 2nd-wettest month) is 177.0mm What’s causing the deluge? Image: Combined rain radar and satellite imagery for the area around Broome, WA, for the 12-hour period to 6:30am on Monday, February 16, 2026. You can see the overnight rainfall in the 12-hour combined radar and satellite loop above. A feed of moisture from a trough and associated tropical low pressure system is slowly being steered in a northeasterly direction. Meanwhile cloud at higher levels of the atmosphere is moving in almost the opposite direction, from east to west. This high cloud moving west is the outflow from convective (rising) air. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino points out, the loop is effectively a top-down visualisation of wind shear, where wind changes direction with height. How unusual is this weather for Broome? As mentioned above, Broome does see reasonably heavy monthly rainfall totals in the summer months. It can even see phenomenally heavy daily rainfall totals during cyclones anytime from late spring through to mid autumn. But overall, Broome’s wet season is shorter and less reliable than in locations much further north, mainly due to occasional influxes of hot, dry air from the centre of the continent during breaks in the monsoon. This week, however, the monsoon will remain the dominant broad-scale weather influence, meaning there’s potential for consistent heavy showers across the Kimberley region – and especially near the coast – for much of the week. Image: Predicted rainfall totals across Australia up until 11am on Thursday, February 19, 2026, showing heavy totals likely in northern Australia with ongoing heavy rain in the Kimberley region around Broome. Other parts of northern Australia are also in line for a good soaking this week. READ MORE: Week-long soaking ahead for northern Australia