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Patchy rain & storms are occurring over the interior in weak troughs. Showers are scattering along the coasts of northern NSW, Qld & the NT in onshore winds. A high is causing skies to clear across the eastern interior, southern NSW, Vic & Tas, leading to a chilly night.
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Today, 7:27AM UTC
August tied as world’s warmest month on record
August 2026 was Earth’s equal warmest month on record, with a global mean surface air temperature 1.65°C above the pre-industrial average. According to data from the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme – Copernicus – the average global surface air temperature in August 2026 was 16.96°C. This was 0.85°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.65°C above the pre-industrial 1850–1900 baseline. This was the planet’s warmest August on record, and the equal warmest month on record, on par with July 2023 in the Copernicus dataset. Ocean temperatures also broke records in August. Earth’s extra-polar oceans – those between 60°S and 60°N, which is most of the world’s oceans excluding waters near the poles – had an average sea surface temperature of 21.07°C last month. This beat the previous August record of 20.98°C from 2023 and matched the any-month record from March 2024. Why was it so warm in August? Last month’s record-breaking warmth in the atmosphere and ocean was caused by the combined influence of climate change and El Niño. Climate change is making Earth’s oceans warmer. According to data from the Bureau of Meteorology, the average sea surface temperature for Earth’s extra-polar oceans in August increased by 1.14°C between 1900 and 2026. On top of this background warming trend, a strengthening El Niño has caused abnormally warm water to build up in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent months. In August, temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were around 2.5 to 3 °C warmer than average. These exceptionally warm waters associated with El Niño likely contributed to elevated global sea surface temperatures in 2026. Image: Global sea surface temperature anomalies in August 2026. Source: ECMWF / Copernicus. Increasing likelihood that 2026 will be Earth’s warmest year on record The rapid pace at which El Niño has developed in recent months has increased the likelihood that 2026 will become the warmest year on record based on global air temperature. In mid-August, Berkeley Earth gave a 69% chance that 2026 would become Earth’s warmest year on record. This was up from 12% the previous month. August's exceptional warmth may increase the likelihood of 2026 becoming the warmest year on record. Updated estimates will be available from Berkeley Earth later this month.
Today, 2:28AM UTC
Spring temperature 'see-saw' in full effect in southern Australia
Maximum temperatures will fluctuate quite dramatically across most of southern Australia over the weekend and into the new week, as the spring 'see-saw' takes full effect. Let's take a look at forecasts for the southern capitals over the coming seven days, before examining the reasons behind the contrasting temperatures. Melbourne maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 16°C, 22°C, 23°C, 20°C, 14°C, 14°C, 15°C It has been cool all week in Melbourne. Wednesday's high of 13.8°C was the chilliest maximum since August 11. September's average maximum is 17.3°C. Expect another chilly outbreak next week. Adelaide maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 21°C, 24°C, 22°C, 18°C, 17°C, 18°C, 20°C Adelaide's temperatures won't bounce around as much as some other capitals, but there will still be a noticeable cooling next week after some weekend warmth. September's average maximum is 18.5°C. Canberra maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 21°C, 21°C, 22°C, 23°C, 19°C, 16°C, 20°C While Canberra's maximums will dip midweek after a warm spell, minimum temperatures are always a big part of the Canberra weather story too, and after sub-zero minimums the last two nights, frosty mornings will likely return by the end of next week after a few slightly warmer nights. For those who enjoy interesting meteorological facts, Canberra has recorded sub-zero minimums in all months except January and February. Image: 2-metre temperatures and 10-metre winds across Australia at 4 pm (AEST) on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, showing the contrasting temperatures between the east and west of southern Australia. Perth maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 25°C, 21°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 27°C In the case of Perth, it's not how much the temperature will dip, but how much it will rise after a brief cool spell with a weakening cold front over the weekend. Next Wednesday could be the city's first 30-degree day since April. Perth's average September maximum is 20.7°C. Sydney maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 20°C, 21°C, 23°C, 27°C, 25°C, 18°C, 20°C. As the harbour city warms up next week, it won't get nearly as hot as the 32.1°C last Saturday, which was the highest reading in the first week of September in data going back to 1859. But there should still be a temperature difference approaching 10 degrees between next Monday and Wednesday's maximums. Sydney's average September high is 20.2°C. Hobart maximums (from this Friday, September 11 through to Thursday, September 17) 18°C, 19°C, 22°C, 21°C, 13°C, 15°C, 16°C After a warm spell on Sunday and Monday, Hobart residents will be reminded that they live in Australia's southernmost capital, with a wintry burst on Tuesday. The average September maximum is 15.2°C. Image: Hourly Graphs for Hobart, Tasmania, on the Weatherzone app. Cold front pushes the see-saw A cold front will push into southwest WA on Friday night, delivering only a few showers as it will be a weakening system when it arrives. That front will slide southwards as it crosses the Great Australian Bight, but a second front should make a direct hit on Tasmania and clip the southern mainland around Tuesday next week. That's the system that will cause a big temperature drop in some parts of southeastern Australia. The general progression of these systems from west to east will generate showers along Australia's southern coastline and nearby ranges, but no big rainfall totals are expected on the mainland. Western Tasmania tends to get the most rainfall from this kind of spring weather pattern, and that will be the case into the new week. Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across SE Australia up until 10 pm (AEST) on Thursday, September 17, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.
10 Sep 2026, 5:49AM UTC
Indonesia fire smoke reaches Australia’s northwest coast
Smoke from fires burning across Indonesia – which are being enhanced by El Niño – has arrived over Australia’s northwest coast this week. Indonesia ablaze under El Niño’s influence Seasonal fire activity in Indonesia is being made more intense and widespread this year by the drying influence of El Niño. When El Niño is underway, trade winds weaken or reverse over the tropical Pacific, resulting in less moisture-laden air flowing towards Indonesia and northern Australia. This drying influence has been evident over the last three months as El Niño became established in the tropical Pacific. The map below shows that rainfall was below average over Indonesia and above average across the tropical Pacific during the June-to-August period this year. This is a typical rainfall footprint of a strengthening El Niño. Image: Accumulated precipitation anomaly for June-to-August 2026. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org. The dry conditions over the last few months caused a rapid increase in fire activity in Indonesia and other parts of the Maritime Continent. Some of the fires in Indonesia in recent weeks are likely burning through tropical peatlands that have been drying out in the last few months. Peat fires can be difficult to extinguish because they smoulder slowly underground, creating large volumes of smoke for prolonged periods. The map below shows where NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites detected fire hotspots with high confidence in Indonesia during the first week of September. Image: Fire hotspots in Indonesia during the first week of September. Source: SIPONGI KEMENFUT. According to data from Indonesia’s Ministry of Forestry fire monitoring program, SiPongi, this appears to be the most active fire season since at least 2019 based on hotspot data. Smoke from the fires in Indonesia has been drifting across southeast Asia and the eastern Indian Ocean in recent weeks. Visible satellite images reveal that some of the smoke has even made it to the Australian mainland around Broome on Western Australia’s Kimberley coast. This smoke could be seen from the ground as a haze on the horizon. Image: Smoke from fires in Indonesia being blown towards northern Australia on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. How long will the fires last? Indonesia’s fire season typically runs from around July to October, with the most intense burning usually happening in September and October before the wet season rainfall arrives from October or November. With El Niño still gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, fires are likely to remain active across Indonesia for several more weeks at least. This may include smoke plumes periodically drifting over parts of northern Australia in the next couple of months.