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A strong cold front nears SW WA, with gusty NW’ly winds and showers impacting the coast. Showers spread over eastern NSW and eastern Qld in moist, gusty onshore winds, with isolated storms developing over NE NSW in an unstable airmass. A broad high keeps elsewhere dry.
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Today, 1:33AM UTC
Perth approaching winter rainfall streak not seen in 3 decades
For the first time since 1996, Perth is facing the strong likelihood of rainfall totals that exceed the long-term average in each of the three months of winter. While Perth topped its total winter rainfall average (three months combined) as recently as last year, rainfall in June 2024 was slightly below average. But this year, each individual winter month is set to surpass the long-term average (based on data at the current site, which has been operational since 1993). So far this winter, Perth has received: 129.8mm in June. The long-term average is 127.2mm. 174.4mm in July. The long-term average is 147mm. 88.8mm and counting in August. The long-term average is 122.7mm. Image: Temperature, chance of rain, and rain amount (new app feature) for Perth, WA, on the Weatherzone app. With at least two bursts of showery weather due in the coming week, there’s every chance that Perth will receive the 34mm of rainfall it needs to exceed the August average by this time next week. Even if totals fall slightly short of the mark after the coming systems, there will still be at least 10 days of August remaining – Perth’s third wettest month on average – meaning more rain-bearing systems are likely before the end of the month. Image: Three-hour combined radar and satellite loop showing cloud streaming towards the west coast. The image above shows the rainband associated with a cold front approaching southwest WA this Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, areas of rain should begin to dampen the southwest, with showers continuing into Thursday. A brief period of cool, mostly dry weather should then set in from Friday before a weak trough forms off the WA coast on Sunday, providing the potential for Perth showers on Sunday afternoon and evening. Another soggy system then arrives next week, most likely on Tuesday. Meanwhile Perth is currently basking in a mild winter spell by local standards. Tuesday’s maximum was 24.1°C – the warmest day of winter 2025 to date – while a 24-degree day is also on the cards this Wednesday. The mercury had already reached 21°C just after 9am (AWST). READ MORE: Perth's wettest day in over a year (July 28, 2025)
12 Aug 2025, 6:03AM UTC
Wet spring on the way for large parts of Australia
Abnormally warm oceans surrounding Australia and a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole will increase the likelihood of abnormally wet weather across large parts of the country this spring, along with an increased risk of flooding and severe thunderstorms. Spring in Australia runs for three months from the start of September to the end of November. This time of year is characterised by rising temperatures and increasingly active weather, typically featuring vast rain-bearing cloudbands, prolific thunderstorm activity and building tropical moisture in the lead-up to the northern wet season. Spring weather this year is expected to be influenced by several broad-scale features: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to emerge to the northwest of Australia this spring, increasing the amount of moisture-laden air flowing over Australia from the tropical Indian Ocean. The Pacific Ocean is expected to stay in a neutral phase this spring (neither La Niña nor El Niño), although a weak La Niña-like pattern may develop. Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region are expected to be warmer than average throughout spring. These relatively warm waters will help supply additional atmospheric moisture for rain and clouds over the Australian continent this spring. Image: Forecast sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia in October 2025. Rain and thunderstorms Both rain and thunderstorm activity are expected to be above average over large areas of Australia this spring, mainly in the eastern two-thirds of the country. This will be due to the combined influence of enhanced moisture in the atmosphere and an increased likelihood of cut-off lows occurring near Australian longitudes. By contrast, some northern and western parts of Australia are expected to see below average rain this spring. This contrasting rain outlook between the east and the west suggests that the upper-level pressure patters will favour the types of systems that initiate rain and storms over central or southern Australia before moving towards the east. The maps below shows one model’s prediction for the chance of having a wetter than normal spring in 2025. Image: Probability of exceeding median rainfall during September 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Image: Probability of exceeding median rainfall during October 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Image: Probability of exceeding median rainfall during November 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Temperature Increased cloud cover over Australia this spring is expected to help moderate maximum temperatures, with much of southern and eastern Australia predicted to see cooler-than-average daytime temperatures between September and November. Note that temperatures will still rise throughout spring and gradually become warmer in the lead-up to summer. However, days should be a bit cooler than you would expect to see in an average spring in some parts of the country. This spring’s ample cloud cover should also reduce the likelihood of outbreaks of intense early season heat in eastern Australia. Some areas of northern and western Australia could buck the trends mentioned above and experience warmer-than-average daytime temperatures this spring. Some forecast models even suggest that mean maximum temperatures will be in the top 20% of historical records this spring across parts of northern Australia. These abnormally warm temperatures may help enhance bushfire activity in the final months of the dry season. Image: Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature during September 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Image: Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature during October 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Image: Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature during November 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. This spring is expected to feature a contrasting mix of rain and temperatures across Australia. Spring also marks the beginning of the severe weather season in Australia, which runs from about October to April during the warmer months of the year. This spring could kick the severe weather season off with a bang thanks to increased rainfall and thunderstorms in some parts of the country.
12 Aug 2025, 12:06AM UTC
Rainband stretches the entire length of Victoria
A rainband associated with a cold front stretches the full length of Victoria from north to south as it crosses the state this Tuesday, bringing welcome moisture to areas that rely heavily on winter rainfall. Winter is the wettest time of year in most parts of Victoria, Australia’s southernmost mainland state, and it has delivered so far in most forecast districts. Image: Two-hour combined radar and satellite loop showing the rainband crossing Victoria on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Victorian towns and cities (and the forecast districts in which they’re located) that saw ABOVE-AVERAGE rainfall in the first two months of winter 2025 include: Hamilton (South West) 148.2mm. The combined average for June and July is 138.7mm. Echuca (Northern Country) 110.5mm. The combined average for June and July is 83.6mm. Ballarat (Central) 150.6mm. The combined average for June and July is 128.8mm. Orbost (East Gippsland) 146mm. The combined average for June and July is 144.8mm. Falls Creek (North East) 273mm. The combined average for June and July is 247.5mm The list above features towns and cities spread across different parts of Victoria, illustrating that the first two months of winter 2025 generally were healthy for rainfall in most areas. While Melbourne’s total of 93.6mm was statistically less than average for June and July, it was only 1.9mm below average. But August has been very dry across Victoria so far. While we’re only 12 days into the month, every drop will count in systems like today’s rainband as we near the end of winter. Remember that many Victorian towns (especially in the state’s west) have endured longstanding rainfall deficits that stretch back to the start of 2025 and in some cases much earlier. So even if they’re on par for winter rainfall to date, more rain is welcome. For example, the Mallee city of Mildura was very close to its combined rainfall average in June and July. But for the year as a whole, it had seen just a paltry 74.9mm of rainfall (before it received 2.4mm to 9am this Tuesday). That’s less than half its running annual average. Meanwhile showers are continuing into mid-morning in Mildura which would be good news for most locals, while Melbourne can also expect a few millimetres later this Tuesday after a relatively dry start to August.