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13 May 2025, 5:08AM UTC
When will Melbourne's warm dry spell end?
When the mercury passed the 20-degree mark in Melbourne early this Tuesday afternoon, it marked the ninth time in 13 days that Melbourne’s temperature had reached 20°C or higher this month. Melbourne's May 2025 maximums are currently running at around 4.4°C above the monthly average of 16.8°C, and while you expect the start of May to be warmer on average than the end of the month, that’s still a significant anomaly. Melbourne has also received just 1.2mm of rainfall this month. The dry start to May follows three below-average rainfall months, including a very dry April with just 19.2mm in total. Much like Perth and Adelaide, Melbourne’s weather in recent weeks has been more reminiscent of early autumn than late autumn. So when are things going to change? There are two answers to that question. In the short term, an influx of colder air is due this weekend, with showers on Saturday with a maximum around 15°C, then a clearing shower on Sunday as the high edges up to 16°C or so. The weekend system will not be particularly vigorous, with the cold front passing through Tasmania only clipping southern Victoria. But it will still be cool enough to make the air feel more like 12 or 13 degrees at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, where Collingwood takes on Adelaide. Over the medium and long term, there’s no current indication of a switch to persistent chilly, showery weather – even though winter is now less than three weeks away. Next week, Melbourne temperatures again look likely to edge up towards 20°C under mostly clear skies, as yet another stubborn, blocking high pressure system dominates Australia’s weather. As Weatherzone reported last week, these persistent highs have caused parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania to endure their driest start to a year on record. The highs are linked to a predominantly positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – which means that the band of storm-bearing westerlies has contracted towards the pole, with substantial rainfall blocked from reaching the southern mainland by the highs. Image: Diagram of the typical effects of a positive Southern Annular Mode in winter. By contrast, Sydney and parts of eastern NSW have been wet. Indeed, Sydney has seen rain on 11 of the first 13 days of May, on the back of a nine-day rainy streak to end April. As the light green blob on the diagram above shows, that is a classic pattern for a positive SAM in late autumn or winter. READ MORE: What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? Meanwhile the BoM’s latest long-range forecast overview – issued on May 8 for the period from June to August – predicts that: Rainfall is expected to be in the typical range for much of Australia. Warmer than average days are very likely across Australia. Warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia. If you're a Melburnian who’s enjoying the relatively mild late autumn, expect similar conditions next week and possibly for several more weeks. But if you're a rain lover or a snow lover who depends on strong winter cold fronts to get your wintry fix, it might pay to start doing a snow dance ahead of the official King's Birthday season opening on June 7.
12 May 2025, 8:00PM UTC
Outback Queensland bursting with green
Nearly two months after heavy rainfall which at some locations was the heaviest on record for March, the Queensland outback is bursting to life. Satellite imagery shows vast areas of green that would normally be brown – even after an average summer period when most parts of western Queensland can expect a few decent falls. The satellite image below shows Queensland this Monday morning. Look closely at the place names and you can see the town of Winton in the state’s Central West forecast district. Image: Satellite view of Queensland at 10am on Monday, May 12, 2025. We mention Winton because it received some of the heaviest rain away from Queensland’s coastal strip from the persistent stream of tropical moisture that soaked much of the state in late March and early April. For example, Winton saw rain on 13 of 14 days from March 23 to April 5, with a total of 354mm over that two-week period. In March alone, Winton received 316.6mm, which was nearly 50% more rain than had ever been recorded in any calendar month. The satellite image below is a close-up view of the far SW corner of Queensland. The dark green areas likely show vegetation in the rivers and creeks which have now discharged most of their water further south towards the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre basin. Image: Satellite view of the far SW corner of Queensland at 10am on Monday, May 12, 2025. The chart below represents the rainfall in statistical terms. It shows the rainfall deciles for Queensland in the first four months of 2025. As you can see, parts of western Queensland saw their highest rainfall on record over that four-month period. Image: Rainfall deciles for Queensland from January 1 to April 30, 2025. Source: BoM. That map will likely be very different for May. Indeed, western Queensland has been drying out since April 5. Since that date (at the end of its record wet streak), Winton has received not a drop of rain. It’s a similar story in many other western Queensland towns. But despite the sky taps turning off, a lovely carpet of vegetation will persist in much of western Queensland through the 2025 winter, in what is generally the driest time of year.
12 May 2025, 6:14AM UTC
Tropical lows, heavy rainfall and earthquakes impacting Indonesia and the South Pacific
Tropical lows, monsoonal winds, heavy rainfall and earthquakes are affecting areas around Australia, bringing weather much more typical to the wet season. Tropical Lows 33U and 34U Tropical lows and cyclones can form at any time of year but become much less frequent over the Australian region during the Southern Hemisphere winter. This is due to the northward expansion of the subtropical ridge and cooler sea surface temperatures. The map below shows two areas of low pressure being monitored for tropical cyclone intensification. Image: Chances of tropical cyclone development of Tropical Lows 33U and 34U on Tuesday, May 13. Source: BoM Tropical Low 33U has a very small chance of developing into a tropical cyclone today (Monday, May 12) or tomorrow over the northern Arafura Sea, near West Papua. Movement over a less favourable atmospheric environment from tomorrow will cause the system to weaken. Impacts over the Australian mainland are unlikely, however southern parts of West Papua can expect periods of heavy rain to start off the week. Image: Satellite loop showing Tropical Lows 33U and 34U over the northern Arafura Sea, and Solomon Sea, respectively, on Monday, May 12. Tropical Low 34U is located in the Solomon Sea and will have the greatest chances (about 25%) of developing into a tropical cyclone around Wednesday, May 14. The system is expected to take a slow-moving track towards the southeast, with direct impacts unlikely for the Australian mainland. Parts of the Solomon Islands can expect a very wet week as moisture streams into the low, with the heaviest falls coming for the rest of Monday and into Tuesday. Trade winds missing from northern and central Indonesia The northward progression of the southeasterly trade winds over Indonesia marks the return of the dry season. Frequent and heavy rainfall and thunderstorms throughout the wet season cause transport disruptions through flooding and rainfall, so the switch from westerly to easterly winds brings more predictable and settled days. This year, the moist westerly winds are still being experienced well into May as far south as western parts of the Indonesian island of Java, on which the capital of Jakarta is located. As seen in the image below, easterly trade winds have moved over eastern parts of Java and Bali, but moist westerlies remain across Sumatra and western Java. Image: 10m wind gusts at 5pm AWST on Monday, May 12, over Sumatra and Indonesia. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect parts of Indonesia over the coming week as moist westerlies converge into the incoming easterly trades, especially over parts of Java. Weekly rainfall accumulations of 100-200mm are likely in some areas, as seen in the image below. Image: rainfall accumulations to Sunday, May 18, over Indonesia. Earthquakes affecting parts of Asia and the Pacific Along with the wet season weather affecting these regions, increased earthquake activity has also been registered. Within the past 24 hours, significant earthquakes reported by Geoscience Australia include: 5.8 magnitude in Aceh, Indonesia 5.8 magnitude near Port Vila, Vanuatu 5.5 magnitude near Tonga Image: recent earthquake activity across Australia, the south Pacific and Asia. Source: Geoscience Australia No tsunami warning is currently active across Australia or the Indian Ocean as a result of these earthquakes, according to the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre. Indonesia's Aceh province was devastatingly affected by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, with the earthquake epicentre just 200 kilometres off the west coast of Aceh. The magnitude of the 2004 earthquake had been estimated around 9, releasing nearly 50,000 times the energy of the recent earthquake.