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Today, 6:41AM UTC
Unusual streak of May nights above 0°C in Canberra
We’re 20 days into May and Canberra has had no nights where the mercury has fallen to 0°C or lower, in a month where it historically happens around eight times. In the first 20 days of May 2026: Canberra’s lowest minimum has been 0.4°C, which has occurred three times. Canberra’s average minimum so far this month has been a mild 5.9°C, which is around three degrees above the long-term average. Canberra’s warmest night this month was May 4, when the minimum of 14.3°C was within 0.8°C of the city’s warmest May night in 87 years of records. Despite the relatively mild May minimums, Canberra locals have reported light frost on their lawns some mornings. That’s because it’s usually a couple of degrees colder at grass level than where temperatures are measured by thermometers inside a Stevenson Screen, around two metres above the ground. Nonetheless, this has been a very mild May in Canberra both by day and by night, with maximums also trending around two degrees above normal. Image: Minimum temperature anomalies for Australia for the week ending May 19, 2026. Canberra is far from the only spot which has been warmer than usual. Source: BoM. Why have May nights been so warm in Canberra? Often, warm minimums are a sign of cloudy skies and rain. But that hasn’t really been the case for most of this month to date. Indeed, Canberra had received just 0.6mm of precipitation up until May 17, before a total of 21.2mm fell in the three days to 9am this Wednesday, May 20. The main reason Canberra has been so warm is that the continent has been free of influxes of cool air from the south, due to a series of blocking high pressure systems. A cool, southwesterly flow is established over the southeast corner of the continent this Wednesday, but it appears that it won’t quite be cool enough for freezing temperatures in the national capital overnight, with minimums of 2°C and 1°C forecast for Thursday and Friday mornings respectively. Canberra’s minimums should warm up a few degrees into the weekend and the early part of next week, which means it’s now conceivable that the city could go the whole month without hitting sub-zero temperatures. While this has happened three times since weather records were first kept in the capital in 1939 (most recently in 2007), statistics from the last three years illustrate just how exceptional it would be. In May 2025, Canberra had seven mornings with a minimum of 0°C lower, with a monthly low of -3.9°C. In May 2024, Canberra had 10 mornings with a minimum of 0°C or lower, with a monthly low of -4.9°C. May 2023 was a particularly chilly month in Canberra, with 18 mornings with a minimum of 0°C or lower, and a monthly low of -5.4°C.
Today, 2:51AM UTC
Warm water building beneath Pacific Ocean surface raises prospect of El Niño for Australia in 2026
A large pool of abnormally warm water sitting below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is starting to emerge at the surface, rapidly tipping the scales towards El Niño. El Niño is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. When this oceanic El Niño pattern becomes established, it typically influences the overlying atmosphere and affects weather patterns on a global scale. Read more: What does a 'super El Niño' mean for Australia’s weather? Scientists monitor sea surface temperatures in two key regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean when tracking El Niño: The Niño 3.4 region – in the central equatorial Pacific bounded by latitudes 5°N to 5°S and longitudes from 170°W to 120°W. The Niño 3 region – in the eastern equatorial Pacific bounded by latitudes 5°N to 5°S and longitudes from 150°W to 90°W. Image: The Niño3.4 and Niño3 regions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Source: Weatherzone. In addition to tracking sea surface temperatures at the surface of the Pacific Ocean, it is also important to watch what’s happening below the surface in the top few hundred metres of the tropical Pacific. The Bureau of Meteorology points out that “cooler than average waters beneath the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific can be a sign of La Niña development, while warmer than average waters can be a sign of El Niño development.” Warm water looming beneath the surface Water temperatures beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently exceptionally warm for this time of year. In some places, the subsurface temperatures are running more than 6°C above the long-term average for this time of year. Image: Evolution of water temperature anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the last three months, showing a large blob of abnormally warm water extending from around 150 m depth towards the surface in the eastern Pacific. Source: NOAA/CPC. This massive slab of warm subsurface water has started spreading towards the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean in recent weeks. This emerging warm deep water has been causing sea surface temperature anomalies to rise rapidly in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, particularly in the Niño3 region. According to data on the Bureau of Meteorology’s website, the Relative Niño3 index rose to +1.07°C during the week ending on May 17. This was the first time in more than two years the Niño3 index has exceeded the Australian El Niño threshold of +0.8°C. Water temperatures have also risen rapidly in the Niño3.4 region in recent weeks, with anomalies climbing from -0.06°C in mid-April to +0.68°C in mid-May. It’s now close to the Australian El Niño threshold of +0.8°C. Image: Weekly Relative Niño3 index values since 2020, showing the emergence of this year’s El Niño signal in recent weeks. Source: Weatherzone. It’s worth noting that for El Niño to be declared by the Bureau of Meteorology, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3 or Niño3.4 regions need to exceed +0.8°C for a sustained period (several consecutive months), along with a reinforced atmospheric response over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The recent emergence of El Niño values in the tropical Pacific Ocean is not yet enough to qualify as a fully-fledged El Niño. However, with so much warm water still lurking beneath the surface, it’s likely that the oceanic El Niño signal will continue to strengthen in the coming months. Modelling from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific are indeed expected to increase further in the Southern Hemisphere's winter and spring. The maps below show the forecast anomalies in the Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions in June and October this year, with a clear warming trend over this four-month period. Image: Forecast sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean in June 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean in October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. This outlook of a strengthening El Niño is backed up by forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, which predict that relative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3 region will reach +3.8°C by October. If this does happen, it would be the highest monthly Niño3 value in records dating back to 1900. However, it’s worth noting that forecasts at 5-month lead time carry considerable uncertainty. Image: Niño3 forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. What does this mean for Australian weather? With El Niño likely to form in 2026 and a very strong or ‘super’ El Niño possible, certain types of weather will have an increased likelihood of occurring in Australia during the months and seasons ahead: Below average rainfall over large areas of Australia during winter and spring, particularly in the eastern half of the country. Above average maximum temperatures for most areas outside the tropics, particularly during the second half of the year. In the tropics, El Niño typically reduces maximum temperatures during the dry season and makes days warmer-than-average in the wet season. Enhanced evaporation due to above average temperatures and below average rainfall, which can cause or enhance drought. More intense daily heat extremes in southern Australia during the warmer half of the year, but with a reduced frequency of prolonged heatwaves. Increased frost risk in winter and spring due to enhanced radiative cooling with clearer skies. Increased risk of dangerous fire days in southeastern Australia in the spring and summer following an El Niño year. Decreased seasonal peak alpine snow depths and a shorter snow season. However, it is important to note that no two El Niño events are the same and the influence on Australian weather can also vary a lot between events. Other influences, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode and sea surface temperatures near Australia can either enhance or counteract the influence of El Niño. Stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts to see how the developing El Niño is expected to influence Australia's weather in the coming months. These forecasts are available from Weatherzone and the Bureau of Meteorology websites.
19 May 2026, 1:53AM UTC
Hobart tracking towards warmest May on record
After beginning the month with its warmest May day in 144 years of records (May 1 maximum 26.9°C, old record 25.7°C), temperatures in Hobart have continued to trend well above average, and the city is now looking increasingly likely to register its warmest May on record. To date in May 2026: Hobart’s running average maximum this month is currently 18.6°C. That’s a full four degrees warmer than its average May maximum of 14.6°C. Hobart’s running average minimum this month is 9.6°C. Its average May minimum is 7.0°C. The unusual Tasmania May warmth has not just been confined to the state capital. To cite just one other example, let’s visit Liawenee, the tiny Central Plateau town with just a handful of residents which registered Tasmania’s coldest recorded temperature in August 2020 with a bone-chilling low of -14.2°C. To date in May 2026: Liawenee's running average maximum is currently 12.0°C. That’s almost three degrees warmer than its average May maximum of 9.1°C. Liawenee’s running average minimum this month is 3.6°C. Its average May minimum is 0.2°C. Why has Tasmania been so warm in May 2026? In addition to the underlying influence of the warming climate, in short it’s down to an absence of regular cold fronts. The polar airmasses that often visit Tasmania frequently in the cooler months have been blocked from pushing northwards by strong high pressure systems, which have been located further south than usual for this time of year. It’s worth revisiting the synoptic chart from May 1 to illustrate that. On that day, warmth from Australia’s interior pushed all the way to Tasmania, as air circulated anti-clockwise around the large high pressure system centred over waters near New Zealand. Image: Synoptic chart for May 1, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While a cold front on May 6 and 7 delivered snow to elevated parts of Tasmania and the southeastern mainland – and gave Hobart its coldest day of the month with a high of just 12.1°C – it was short lived and was a blip in the otherwise mild Tasmanian weather pattern. Will the last 12 days of the month be cooler? A weak cold front has cooled things down in Tasmania this Tuesday, but there’s no real bite to it, and temperatures will continue to hover near, or just above, the May average in most parts of the state this week. For example, the average May Maximum is 5.7°C at the weather station on kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart at an elevation of 1260m. From this Tuesday through to Sunday, the expected maximums are 8°C, 6°C, 7°C, 9°C, 7°C and 7°C. With no outbreak of below-average maximums or minimums for the rest of this week – on the back of well-above average temperatures across the first 19 days of the month – it’s likely that numerous monthly records for warmth will be broken right across Tasmania by the end of May.