Australian Weather

Today, 12:36AM UTC

Heavy rain will cause flooding in parts of Tasmania on Wednesday, before a developing low pressure system causes further heavy rain and flooding in parts of New South Wales on Thursday and Friday. Slow-moving weather patterns causing rain this week Rain is soaking a broad area of southeastern Australia this week as a slow-moving upper-level low passes over the region, destabilising the atmosphere and creating ideal conditions for rain and thunderstorms. One reason this weather pattern is producing so much rain is because it is being fed by a steady feed of air from the tropics, which is also being boosted by additional moisture evaporating from the abnormally warm Tasman Sea. This setup is creating a conveyor belt of moisture, also known as an atmospheric river. Heavy rain targeting Tasmania on Wednesday Tasmania will experience the result of this atmospheric river on Wednesday as moisture streaming in from the Tasman Sea crashes into the state from the northeast. While this atmospheric river will only make a short pass over Tas, it will still bring enough rain to cause flooding on Wednesday. Image: Modelled precipitable water (a measure of atmospheric moisture) and 850 hPa winds at 10 am AEST on Wednesday, May 28, showing moisture-laden air flowing towards Tasmania from the northeast. Source: Weatherzone. Computer models suggest that around 50-100 mm of rain will fall over parts of northeast Tas on Wednesday, with periods of intense rain possibly delivering around 40 to 80 mm in six hours. Isolated heavy falls are also possible in other areas of eastern and southeast Tas on Wednesday. As of 10am AEST, a severe weather warning had been issued for heavy rainfall in the Furneaux Islands, North East and parts of East Coast Forecast districts. A minor flood warning was also in place for the South Esk River. Hobart will see rain from this system on Wednesday, although the city should be shielded from the heaviest falls. Rain to increase over eastern NSW as low develops from Thursday The upper-level low passing over eastern Australia this week will cause rain and thunderstorms to continue over broad areas of NSW and Qld between Wednesday and Friday. Some of this thunderstorm activity is likely to produce heavy rainfall, which may cause localised flash flooding. A more focused area of heavy rain is expected to develop over northeastern NSW on Thursday and Friday as a surface-based low pressure system develops off the state’s north coast. This heavy rain will be falling onto a landscape that is already wet from rain earlier in the week, so flooding is a high risk. While there is still some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain will fall in the coming days, the area most likely to see rainfall that could cause riverine flooding are the Hunter and Mid North Coast districts in NSW. This may change as new forecast model data becomes available over the next few days. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over southeastern Australia during the 72 hours ending at 10 pm AEST on Friday, May 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As of 10 am AEST on Wednesday, a flood watch was in place for parts of the Hunter and Mid North Coast districts in NSW. Sydney and Brisbane will both see a decent amount of rain as this system continues to soak eastern Australia over the next few days. Brisbane’s wettest days will be Thursday and Friday, while Sydney should see rain ramp up on Thursday and continue into Friday based on the low pressure system’s current trajectory.

26 May 2026, 1:33AM UTC

Heavy rain has fallen across a wide area of eastern Australia, with rainfall totals in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday exceeding 50mm at several locations in the Central West of New South Wales. The city of Dubbo led the way with 59.4mm. This equalled the 2nd-wettest May day in records stretching all the way back to 1870. Gilgandra, Yeoval and Canowindra in the NSW Central West also topped 50mm, while Jervis Bay Airfield on the NSW South Coast had the state’s highest 24-hour total, with 62.2mm. Image: Rainfall across NSW from 1am to 9am (AEST) on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, indicating how central parts of the state received heavy, consistent falls over that period. Source: Weatherzone. What caused the heavy rain? This was always going to be a wet week across southeastern Australia, with a broad area of slow-moving upper-level troughs and low pressure systems dominating the charts. Pools of cold upper-level air cause the atmosphere to become unstable, paving the way for wet and stormy weather. Image: Atmospheric water vapour over Australia from 1am to 9am (AEST) this Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Will the rain continue? It is, and it will. A significant rainband is drenching southeastern NSW and the ACT as Tuesday morning turns into Tuesday afternoon. Canberra recorded 20mm in just five hours between 6am and 11am, and heavy rain is also falling in Sydney, the South Coast and many parts of southern inland NSW. By the afternoon, rain should develop in eastern Victoria and northern and eastern parts of Tasmania, where a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall has just been issued. As for Dubbo, an additional 15.4mm of rain fell between 9am and 11am, before the heaviest band of rain began to push south of the city towards midday. But more rain is in store in coming days for the Central West city of around 50,000 residents. Image: Dubbo daily forecasts on the Weatherzone app. With a total of 108mm in the gauge as of 9am this Tuesday, this is already Dubbo’s wettest month in more than two years (not counting the heavy rain between 9am and 11am). By the end of this week, several other locations in NSW and southern Queensland might be able to claim a similar statistic. Meanwhile there are no flood warnings yet in place for NSW, however we recommend you keep checking the latest on the Weatherzone warnings page.