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A cold front brings showers to WA's south and southwest. Onshore winds within high drives showers along coastal areas of NSW, Qld and eastern parts of Vic and Tas. Developing low pressure enhances some showers and the odd storm over inland parts of SA, NT and Qld.
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Today, 2:16AM UTC
Potential for Adelaide’s biggest soaking of the year
Adelaide and large parts of South Australia look set for significant rainfall, as a moist feed of tropical air combines with a developing inland trough. Rain is expected to develop on Friday and continue on-and-off through the weekend in the Adelaide area, with storms possible on Saturday. This rain will be welcomed by locals even if it disrupts outdoor activities on the weekend, as Adelaide has been relatively dry to date in 2026. As the chart below shows, the first four months of 2026 were wetter than usual in most parts of SA – and even exceptionally wet at some locations by local standards. But the area around Adelaide – including the Fleurieu Peninsula, the Adelaide Hills, and the city itself – has somewhat missed out. Image: SA rainfall deciles from January to the end of April, 2026, with pale red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. If you expand the time frame from four months to four years, you can see a similar pattern in South Australia, with above-average rainfall in much of the state’s north, but below-average rainfall in most parts of the state’s south and southeast – Adelaide included. Image: SA rainfall deciles in the four years to the end of April, 2026, with the red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. How much rain could fall in Adelaide? Adelaide started 2026 with a completely dry January, and that dry city gauge was no localised anomaly. Even up on Mount Lofty in the Adelaide Hills – where the annual average rainfall of 973mm is 81% more than the city’s 537.6mm - just 1.8mm of rain fell in January. Since the end of January, Adelaide’s rainfall has been close to average, without any exceptionally wet spells – especially compared to other parts of the state. For example, the town of Yunta in SA’s North East Pastoral forecast district saw a record 222.6mm in March. But from this Friday to next Tuesday, Adelaide could potentially see its wettest spell of the year – with the likelihood of 15 to 15mm over the five-day period, although some models are predicting as much as 40mm. Rain from an unusual direction One aspect of the incoming weather system is that it will arrive from the north and northeast. As mentioned in our story earlier this week on the widespread rain set to affect several states, that’s virtually the opposite of the usual direction for significant Adelaide rain, especially with winter approaching. 'It's also a slow-moving system, with the trough and front sliding southeast rather than pushing east due to the blocking high over the Tasman,"Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains. "This means the system will be in the vicinity longer, hence able to cause more rain." Image: Hourly graphs for Adelaide, SA, on the Weatherzone app. The rain that falls in Adelaide and elsewhere in SA this week will obviously help top up water storages, and it could boost water levels in Lati Thanda-Lake Eyre, where there’s extensive water to a depth of as much as 2.2 metres, according to the Lake Eyre Yacht Club. Interestingly, there could even be a minor reverse effect in this system, where Lake Eyre and other normally dry SA salt lakes provide small additional amounts of moisture for the rain heading further south. Instead of being a net absorber of moisture, those areas will be giving back to the atmosphere, even if it's only a relatively small amount. But this rainband would still happen without the influence of the lakes.
13 May 2026, 9:13AM UTC
Warm Tasman Sea affecting weather in eastern NSW
Abnormally warm water in the Tasman Sea is affecting the weather in eastern New South Wales, insulating Sydney and making beach swims an ongoing option despite being less than three weeks away from winter. The East Australian Current (EAC) – a southward-flowing ocean current that transports water from the Coral Sea down the east coast of Australia – has caused several large pools of unusually warm water to develop in the Tasman Sea this month. These warm pools, also known as eddies, contain water that is around 2 to 4°C warmer than average for this time of year. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies during a 6-day period centred on May 5, 2026. The red areas show where sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C warmer than average for this time of year. Source: IMOS. Warmer-than-normal water is extending south from NSW towards eastern Victoria and Tasmania. According to data from Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing Sydney (IMOS), water temperatures in much of the western Tasman Sea are currently in the top 10% of historical records for this time of year. This warm water is influencing the weather over eastern Australia. Higher ocean temperatures cause air sitting just above the ocean’s surface to also become warmer. When onshore winds blow this maritime air towards land, it directly affects the air temperature in cities and towns along the coast. Daytime maximum temperatures in Sydney have been running around 2 to 4°C above average since late last week. Despite a brief cold snap earlier this month, the running average temperature during the first 13 days of this month have been more than 3°C above average, making this Sydney’s warmest start to May in 8 years. This week’s onshore winds are also carrying moisture-laden air from the warm Tasman Sea, resulting in showers along the coast and ranges. Image: Showers streaming over the NSW coast on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Water temperatures at the beaches are also a bit warmer than usual for this time of year, making it more pleasant than usual for swimmers and surfers. Looking ahead, relatively warm and showery weather will continue in eastern NSW for the rest of this week. Sydney will continue to see daytime maximum temperatures around 22 to 24°C, hovering a few degrees above the May average of 19.6°C.
13 May 2026, 2:39AM UTC
Increasing likelihood of widespread rainfall across most states
An unusual weather pattern for late autumn will bring rain to large parts of central and eastern Australia later this week and into next week, potentially delivering the highest totals in many months to some parched areas. This is not a typical late autumn set-up. At this time of year, high pressure systems usually drift north, allowing cold fronts embedded in the band of mid-latitude westerlies in the Southern Ocean to push cool air and moisture over the southern portion of the country. But the large, slow moving high pressure system currently centred over waters near Tasmania is blocking systems from the south. As air circulates anti-clockwise around the high, an easterly flow is dampening the east coast, with drier conditions inland. Image: Mean sea level pressure and precipitable water across Australia for this Friday, May 15, 2026, showing the high pressure system centred well southeast of the mainland. Source: Weatherzone. In the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, some handy falls of 25mm or more were recorded along the east coast, all the way from the Hunter region, just north of Sydney, to parts of Far North Queensland near Cairns. As the persistent easterly flow interacts with a trough over Australia’s interior, widespread inland rain is expected to develop. Let’s break down the rainfall potential in coming days in each state: South Australia Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across South Australia by 9:30am (ACST) this coming Saturday, May 16, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. As the map above shows, rainfall could develop across much of South Australia, especially the eastern portion of the state, by Saturday. Adelaide rarely sees rain arrive from the northeast, an occurrence which is most common during a La Niña. (Currently, Australia is in a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, meaning there is no La Niña or El Niño. An El Niño is expected to develop in Australia before the end of winter.) But from Friday onwards, Adelaide’s wettest spell of the year could set in with rain arriving from the northeast. Victoria Our southernmost mainland state could see useful rain in most areas, with the lightest falls in Gippsland in the east. Melbourne is most likely to see showers from Sunday through to Tuesday. As you’d expect with a weather event where winds have a northerly aspect, days in Melbourne will remain relatively mild. To date this month, Melbourne’s average maximum has been more than two degrees above the May average maximum of 16.8°C. New South Wales/ACT Image: Rainfall deciles for NSW from January to April, 2026. Source: BoM. By the end of the weekend into early next week, this system has the potential to bring the first significant rainfall in months to parts of the state’s north and northeast which are shaded red in the map above. Western, central and most eastern parts of the state can also expect handy rain. For Sydney, expect a continuation of this week’s showery weather – with any rain arriving from almost the opposite direction to this week’s southeasterlies. Canberra can also expect a useful drop next week, after an almost totally dry first two weeks of May. Tasmania Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across Tasmania by 10pm (AEST) next Tuesday, May 19, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The northwest and the state's west coast can expect heavier rain than the rest of Tasmania, with rainfall accumulation tapering off in the southeast corner. While Hobart can expect some showers early next week, it won’t do a lot to alleviate the recent dry spell, in which four of the last five full months have seen below-average rainfall totals. Queensland Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across Queensland by 10pm (AEST) next Tuesday, May 19, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. This system should deliver rainfall to parts of western and eastern Queensland, with central parts of the state appearing likely to miss out on significant falls at this stage. Birdsville, in the state’s normally parched southwest corner, has had an interesting rainfall year, with a record 177mm in February and further handy rain in March. The town’s average May rainfall is just 8.4mm, but that total could be exceeded on Sunday alone. Brisbane's showery spell is also likely to continue into the new week. Northern Territory Locations in the southern NT like Alice Springs and possibly even Yulara (the town near Uluru) appear likely to see meaningful rain for at least two days from Saturday onwards. There could also be some regular shower activity in the Top End even though the wet season is now officially over. Western Australia The only reason we’ve put Australia’s largest state last is that this system will have more impact on the eastern two thirds of the continent than the west. Having said that, some eastern parts of the state could catch a piece of this system, with rain possible in some very dry outback areas. The far southwest of the state, including Perth, will see showers from cold fronts this Thursday and Friday. The fronts will be steered away from more easterly parts of Australia’s southern coastline by the blocking high.