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A cold front is driving showers, storms, and gusty winds over eastern SA, Vic, NSW and western Tas. A trough is bringing some light showers for southern Qld and northern NSW. Onshore winds around a high are bringing light showers to coastal southern WA.
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Today, 2:32AM UTC
Typhoon Bavi to pass by Taiwan, bear down on China
Typhoon Bavi is nearing major population centres this weekend, having travelled across the Western Pacific in the last week. Crossing Japan’s Sakishima Islands east of Taiwan on Saturday morning, Bavi will then pass to the north of Taiwan, before making landfall along China’s east coast by late Saturday night. According to the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA), Bavi is currently generating winds of approximately 140km/h, gusting to about 200km/h as it crosses the southern Okinawa Islands. The JMA has ongoing warnings in place with these winds expected to continue into Saturday afternoon. In addition, it is forecasting waves as high as 12m near the islands as Bavi passes through. Gif: Water vapour imagery of Typhoon Bavi as it approaches and crosses the Sakishima Islands on Saturday morning. Source: Weatherzone. Weather stations across the region have so far recorded wind speeds of 95km/h and gusts as high as 150km/h during Saturday morning. Meanwhile, 24 hour rainfall totals to Saturday morning have exceeded 150mm across the region with further rainfall expected as rainbands move across the islands behind the eye of Bavi. The highest rainfall totals of this system so far have been observed across northern parts of Taiwan. In some areas, rainfall totals have reached 250-300mm since midnight local time (as of 10:30am), including 6 hourly totals exceeding 150mm and hourly rainfall totals approaching 60mm. Image: Areas of Taiwan covered by a Typhoon Warning on Saturday morning. Source: Central Weather Administration https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_WARN.html Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration is maintaining a Typhoon Warning that covers most of the island. In addition, a warning for extremely torrential rain (exceeding 500mm/24h) is in place for mountainous areas. Rainfall could also exceed 300mm/24h for northern parts of the island, leading to widespread flooding as well as a risk of landslides through the mountainous terrain. In the coming hours and days, the JMA is expecting Bavi to approach, then make landfall along China’s east coast, and is expected to be already weakening by this point. The most likely site of landfall looks to be in the vicinity of Wenzhou, about 350km south of Shanghai. Following landfall, model guidance is indicating that Bavi will continue to weaken while making its way north through eastern China, inland from Shanghai, then veer northeast towards the Korean Peninsula early next week. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall in the week to Friday, July 17, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While impacts over the mainland are not expected to be as severe as for the islands, rainfall is still expected to reach 200-400mm in widespread areas in the coming days. Damaging to possibly destructive winds as well as a storm surge are also likely along coastal areas near where Bavi makes landfall.
10 Jul 2026, 3:27AM UTC
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole possible in 2026 – what this means for Australia
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could develop in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia in late winter and spring. While a lot of attention has been paid to the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean in recent weeks, there has been less focus on the Indian Ocean. This may soon change, with forecast models predicting a positive IOD emerging in the months ahead. What is a positive Indian Ocean Dipole? The IOD is a climate phenomenon relating to the difference in sea surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean. Scientists measure the IOD by comparing sea surface temperatures in two defined regions: the western tropical Indian Ocean (IOD West) and the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (IOD East). A positive IOD occurs when water on the eastern side of the tropical Indian Ocean, near Indonesia, is cooler than the water on the western side of the Indian Ocean, near the Horn of Africa. When a positive IOD is underway, we typically see less moisture-laden air flowing across the tropical Indian Ocean towards and over Australia. This can increase maximum temperatures and reduce rainfall across large areas of the country. Image: Observed winter-spring rainfall deciles from 11 positive IOD events combined. The red shading shows where rainfall was below average. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. IOD events typically begin in winter, reach a peak strength in spring and decay rapidly in early summer when the monsoon develops in the Australian region. Signs of a positive IOD ahead At the start of July 2026, the IOD was in a neutral phase, meaning neither a positive nor negative phase was occurring. This means sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean are roughly equal, as seen in the image below. Image: Daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean on July 8, 2026. Anomalies are roughly equal in the IOD West and IOD East regions, meaning the IOD is in a neutral phase. Source: NOAA. In the months ahead, forecast models predict that sea surface temperature anomalies in the western tropical Indian Ocean will become comparably higher than the anomalies in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. If this happens, it will set up a positive IOD pattern in late winter or spring. Image: Predicted monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in November 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model, showing a positive IOD pattern. Source: Weatherzone. It is important to point out that forecast models currently have a wide range of uncertainty about the strength and timing of the IOD in the coming months. What would a positive IOD mean for Australia's weather? If a positive IOD does develop this year, it will increase the likelihood of unusually dry and warm weather over much of Australia in late winter and spring. It’s important to note that the IOD does not act in isolation, and other factors may enhance or counteract the influence of the IOD in the months ahead. For example, the IOD’s dry and warm influence will be compounded by the presence of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which affect wind and pressure patterns across southern Australia, will also modulate the impact of the IOD in the months ahead. Some, but not all, seasonal forecast models are already predicting below average rain and above average maximum temperatures across much of Australia by the middle of spring. Image: Chance of above average rainfall across Australia in October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Chance of above average maximum temperatures across Australia in October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. It will be important to keep checking the latest seasonal rainfall and temperature predictions in the months ahead to see how the evolving IOD is having an impact on the forecasts.
10 Jul 2026, 12:44AM UTC
Cold, wet, windy weekend for southeastern Australia
A classic winter cold front will surge across southeastern Australia this weekend, with widespread showers and strong winds throughout the weekend, while snowfalls will commence in the alpine region later on Saturday. The engine of this system is a strong low pressure system centred over the Southern Ocean, closer to Antarctica than Australia. Winds circulating clockwise around this vast system will push moisture and cold air all the way to Tasmania and the southeastern mainland. Image: Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure over southern Australia and the Southern Ocean at 10 pm (AEST) on Saturday, July 11, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The image above shows the expected position of the low’s centre a long way south of Australia on Saturday night. The main band of precipitation associated with the cold front can be seen crossing the southeast. Weekend weather for the southeastern capitals Adelaide will be wet and windy, with showers heaviest on Saturday and maximums around 15°C on both weekend days. Rainfall totals in the vicinity of 20 mm are likely from this event between Saturday and Monday, with heavier falls possible in the Adelaide Hills. Melbourne is also set for some heavy showers Saturday (likely later in the day), with weekend maximums around 15°C on Saturday and 14°C on Sunday. Melbourne could gain around 10 mm from this event, with showers persisting into Monday. Hobart will not be as wet as western Tasmania, where heavy rainfall is expected over several days. But the city should still see a few millimetres from this event. The maximum will be around 14°C on Saturday in the milder northwesterlies ahead of the front, then a chilly 11°C on Sunday. Canberra doesn’t tend to see much rain from these events, even as clouds coat the Brindabella Range west of the city, delivering rain and/or snow all day. But the city itself should still see a shower or two on Saturday evening and Sunday morning. On Sunday, expect a cold maximum of just 9°C. In westerly systems like this, Sydney tends to be shielded from showers by the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands. Temperatures are also typically quite mild ahead of the front, but after a Saturday maximum around 19°C, Sunday will be a little chillier with a maximum of 17°C. Note that all of the temperatures mentioned are expected to feel much colder due to those strong northwesterly to westerly winds. For example, Melbourne’s apparent or "feels like" temperature is likely to remain below 10°C all weekend, while Sunday in Canberra will feel very close to 0°C all day. Image: The brown line is the apparent or "feels like" temperature expected for Canberra in the 7-day forecast period. Note how it is close to 0°C all day on Sunday. Source: Weatherzone. What is the snowfall potential from this system? We wrote on Wednesday that the early indications for this system were that it could deliver around 15 cm of snow to the mid-level of most ski resorts. That could now be more like 20-25 cm, with the potential for even heavier snowfalls at the highest elevations over the period between Saturday afternoon and Tuesday morning. For those visiting the snowfields, expect very strong winds in the alpine region, with the likelihood of chairlifts being placed on wind hold, especially late on Saturday and during Sunday. Image: An ice-encrusted snow gum in an Australian Alps blizzard of the type we will see this weekend. Source: iStock/Chris Gordon. This is not a system with a prolonged push of polar air that will linger over the southeastern mainland for several days, but there is a brief influx of very cold air expected early on Sunday morning, with snow levels dropping to 1000 metres or slightly lower. The snow level will start to rise on the mainland later on Sunday, with most resorts still enjoying snow showers on their upper slopes, while the lower slopes could see the dreaded "clear snow", otherwise known as rain. But overall, this will be a very welcome top-up for the Australian snowfields, just eight days after the (belated) first significant snowfall of the 2026 ski season. It will also be a particularly snowy system for Tasmania, with snow levels dropping to 600 metres in our southernmost state by Monday. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more. Image: Perisher Valley Graphs on the Weatherzone app.