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Ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji is bringing heavy rain to central and eastern Qld. Monsoonal winds bring storms to NT's Top End whlle low pressure and an unstable airmass extend storms from north to south inland WA. Moist onshore winds drive rain across southeast Qld.
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Today, 7:00AM UTC
Victorian bushfire smoke visible from space
Satellite imagery clearly shows smoke from Victoria’s bushfires, as at least 12 major blazes still rage in our southernmost mainland state. As the images clearly show, the smoke is being blown southwards into Bass Strait. This might seem counterintuitive to some people in southern Victoria, who experienced relatively cool surface-level southerly winds for most of Monday. However, winds at slightly higher levels of the atmosphere (above about 1800m) are blowing across Victoria from a predominantly northerly aspect, pushing the smoke south as it ascends. Image: 850hpa temperature and winds for Victoria on the afternoon of Monday, January 12, 2026. 850hpa corresponds to approximately 1500m above sea level. The “feathers” on the wind barbs (small lines sticking out from the longer lines) are positioned at the end of the barb from which the wind is blowing. What is the current state of the fires? As much as 400,000 hectares has now burned in the state’s biggest fire emergency since the Black Summer, with one person tragically killed and more than 350 homes or buildings destroyed. The fatality occurred in the Longwood Fire, where a Watch and Act warning level remains in place. This is the middle level of the Victorian CFA’s three warning levels. The Longwood fire has covered the largest area of any bushfire in the current emergency, and a large patch of scorched countryside appears to be visible on satellite imagery, approximately halfway between Mansfield and Seymour, just south of the actual town of Longwood. Image: Satellite view of the Victorian bushfires at 4pm (AEDT) on Monday, December 12, 2026. The fires have also spawned pyrocumulus clouds like this one pictured below. Pyrocumulus clouds are large storm clouds caused by rising hot air from bushfire flames and smoke. Image: Bushfire smoke and pyrocumulus cloud captured from Holbrook, NSW, just north of the Victorian border, on January 11, 2026. Source: Satch & Co Gallery (@satchandco gallery on Instagram). Is any rain coming to provide relief in Victoria? As mentioned in our story about the wet week in store for eastern Australia, significant rain will make its way to Victoria’s East Gippsland region, where some fires are not yet fully under control. Parts of southern Victoria including Melbourne should also see some showers on Thursday. Away from eastern Victoria and the southern coastline, the likelihood of meaningful rain this week dissipates. A few isolated storms could occur on Thursday in the state’s north, however no widespread statewide soaking lies on the immediate horizon.
Today, 12:41AM UTC
Big week of rain for eastern Australia
Large parts of eastern Australia can expect a week of significant rainfall. For tropical Queensland, this will be a continuation of recent wet weather, while for areas south of the tropics along the coast and adjacent ranges, it will mark a break in the pattern of relatively dry weather. The rain that is currently falling, or that is due to fall, can be broadly separated into three distinct events. Ongoing rainfall from ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji drifts south Extremely heavy rain has fallen over the past day or two in Queensland's Central Coast and Whitsundays forecast district (centred around Mackay) with heavy rainfall extending to the Central Highlands and Coalfields district, as well as adjacent inland areas. To 9am Monday, some of the notable 24-hour rainfall totals included: 216.5mm at Clermont Bridge and 203.2mm at nearby Clermont Airport. This daily total is more than double the monthly average for a town located some four hours inland from Rockhampton. 218mm at St Lawrence in the Capricornia forecast district. 150.2mm at Mackay Airport after 77.2mm the previous day. "We are seeing heavy rainfall in places like Emerald and Rockhampton this Monday due to the monsoonal flow wrapping around the low pressure system formed by ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji," Weatherzone metrologist Joel Pippard explains. Image: Chart showing precipitable water and mean sea level pressure, indicating how moisture is travelling from north of Australia into the Coral Sea and wrapping around the low in a clockwise direction, causing rain in inland Qld. Rainfall, possibly heavy at times, will push southwards into Brisbane on Monday and may extend into Tuesday, depending on the position of a coastal trough near the southeast Queensland coast. Onshore winds to soak NSW in second half of week Parts of the NSW coastline, including Sydney, are seeing drizzly rain this Monday, but heavier rain can be expected from Thursday into the weekend as a low forms near the NSW coast. Persistent easterly winds and abundant atmospheric moisture should ensure that Sydney gets its first decent soaking of the summer, after a very dry December with just 19mm in total (monthly average 77.7mm) and modest January rainfall totals to date. Widespread thunderstorms likely on Thursday A significant thunderstorm outbreak potentially covering most of Queensland, virtually the entire eastern half of NSW, and parts of Victoria, is on the cards for Thursday. According to Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard, all the ingredients for thunderstorm development should be in place, with plenty of moisture and atmospheric instability as a pool of cold upper air pushes north. Thursday will also be hot inland, with temperatures approaching 40°C in places like Dubbo, which means that NSW storms will likely develop in forecast districts like the Central West and North West Slopes and Plains – hundreds of kilometres west of the coast and adjacent ranges. Will there be rain relief for Victoria? Image: Predicted rainfall for SE Australia for the week ending Sunday, January 18, according to the ECMWF model. It’s difficult at this stage to predict how much of the eastern Australian rain due from midweek onwards will make its way south and east to Victoria. While Victoria’s East Gippsland region can expect significant totals around 15-30mm later this week, early indications are that only lighter falls in the range of 10mm or less will make it to some of the worst fire-affected areas in central, western and northeastern Victoria.
10 Jan 2026, 10:08PM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Koji on a collision course with the north Qld coast
Tropical Cyclone Koji (category 1) is approaching the north Queensland coastline on Sunday morning and is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen later this morning. At 4am (AEST) on Sunday, January 11, Koji was a category 1 tropical cyclone, with sustained winds near the centre around 85km/h and peak gusts around 120km/h. The system was located approximately 120km east-northeast of Townsville and 120km north-northwest of Bowen, tracking south at around 18km/h. Forecast guidance indicates the strongest winds will occur near and south of the centre as Koji approaches the coast, with the Whitsunday Islands particularly exposed to damaging gusts prior to landfall. Coastal warnings in place A tropical cyclone warning remains current from Ayr to Mackay, including Bowen, Proserpine and the Whitsunday Islands. The watch zone has been cleared, while the warning for Townsville has been cancelled as Koji continues to track away from the city. Although Koji is expected to weaken quickly after crossing the coast, its impacts will extend well beyond the immediate coastal zone. Heavy rainfall and flooding risk Rainfall is expected to become the dominant hazard as Koji moves inland. Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast between Ingham and Proserpine, extending south to Mackay later today. With river catchments already saturated from recent rainfall, further rain will lead to rapid rises in creeks and rivers, increasing the risk of both flash and riverine flooding across several basins. Flood Watches and Flood Warnings remain current, along with a Severe Weather Warning for parts of the northeast and central Queensland coastline. Tides are forecast to remain elevated between Cardwell and Mackay, although they are not expected to exceed the highest astronomical tide levels. Image: Cloud and rain associated with Tropical Cyuclone Koji on the morning of Sunday, January 11, 2026. Wind impacts near the coast Damaging winds with gusts up to 120km/h have already buffeted parts of the Whitsunday Islands. Gusts approaching 100km/h may briefly extend into coastal and nearby inland areas between Ayr and Mackay as Koji nears the coast. Winds are expected to ease steadily once the cyclone moves inland and weakens during Sunday. After landfall After crossing the coast, Koji is forecast to weaken into a tropical low while continuing westward across northern Queensland. Despite losing cyclone strength, the system will remain capable of producing heavy rainfall and localised flooding for the next 24 to 48 hours. First Coral Sea cyclone in an active Australian season Koji is the seventh tropical cyclone to form within Australia’s area of responsibility so far in the 2025–26 season, highlighting an unusually active start to the cyclone season. Earlier systems including Fina, Bakung, Grant, Hayley, Iggy and Jenna, formed over, or moved into, Australia’s western region. Koji now represents the first Coral Sea tropical cyclone this season to directly impact the Queensland coastline. Staying informed As Koji crosses the coast, residents are urged to monitor the latest warnings, forecasts and advice from local emergency authorities. Avoid unnecessary travel during periods of heavy rainfall and never attempt to drive through floodwaters. Secure loose items around your property and follow directions from emergency services to reduce the risk of injury or damage as impacts continue.