Australian Weather

23 Apr 2026, 3:30AM UTC

There are signs that a very strong, or ‘super’ El Niño could develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean later this year. So, what does this mean for Australia's weather during the second half of 2026? El Niño on the horizon The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral state, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are occurring. However, there are strong indications that El Niño will emerge as we head into the Southern Hemisphere’s winter. The first indicator of the looming El Niño is a large pool of abnormally warm water sitting beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean – an area called the Niño 3.4 region – become warmer than average. The Bureau of Meteorology’s threshold for El Niño is at or above 0.8°C warmer than average in the Niño 3.4 region, while some other countries, including the United States, use a lower threshold of 0.5°C above average. While ocean surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are currently near average for this time of year, there is a large slab of unusually warm water sitting around 50 to 250 metres below the surface. These above-average sub-surface temperatures have strengthened in the last couple of months, with anomalies exceeding 6°C in some areas. It’s possible that these warm sub-surface waters will upwell towards the surface in the coming weeks and months, which could kick off El Niño. Image: Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean from early March to early April, 2026. The red shading inside the green box shows abnormally warm water lying beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. A second sign that El Niño is about to emerge is overwhelming agreement between global forecast models. At this time of year, we typically see a lot of uncertainty in forecasts for El Niño and La Niña due to a phenomenon called the autumn predictability barrier in the Southern Hemisphere (spring predictability barrier in the Northern Hemisphere). However, there is strong model consensus that El Niño will develop in the next few months. Some models also predict that the imminent El Niño will become a very strong event – what is sometimes referred to as a ‘super El Niño’ – meaning sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region will reach 2.0°C above average or higher. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre’s latest forecast, there is roughly a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño occurring towards the end of this year. Image: El Niño forecast plume from the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Each red line represents a forecast from one of 51 different ensemble members from the same model. Each member uses slightly different initial ocean conditions as the basis for its forecast, which helps account for a range of possible scenarios in the forecast. Note that all ensemble members from this model are predicting El Niño conditions from May and most are suggesting a very strong, or ‘super’ El Niño later in the year. Source: ECMWF (annotated by Weatherzone). What does El Niño mean for Australia? El Niño does not guarantee any kind of weather for Australia. However, it does make some types of weather more likely than others, particularly during winter and spring. The maps below show the observed changes to rainfall and maximum temperature from past El Niño events. These maps show conditions averaged out across multiple 9 or 10 El Niño years, representing the general impact of El Niño on daytime temperatures and rainfall. Image: Observed rainfall deciles for the July to September period during 10 El Niño events from 1905 to 2015. The red shading shows where rainfall is below average. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Observed maximum deciles for the August to October period during nine El Niño events from 1914 to 2015. The orange and yellow shading shows where maximum temperatures are above average while blue is below average. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. In general, El Niño typically causes: Below average rainfall over large areas of Australia during winter and spring. However, its influence on rainfall is usually weaker in summer and autumn. Above average maximum temperatures for most areas outside the tropics, particularly during the second half of the year. In the tropics, El Niño typically reduces maximum temperatures in the dry season and makes days warmer in the wet season. Enhanced evaporation due to above average temperatures and below average rain, which can cause of enhance drought. More intense daily heat extremes in southern Australia, but with a reduced frequency of prolonged heatwaves. Increased frost risk in winter and spring due to enhanced radiative cooling with clearer skies. Increased risk of dangerous fire days in southeastern Australia as temperatures rise in spring and summer. Decreased seasonal peak alpine snow depths and a shorter snow season. The strength of El Niño can also affect how it influences Australia's weather. Stronger El Niño events make it more likely that the impacts mentioned above will occur. However, it is important to point out that stronger events do not always mean bigger weather impacts and even a weak El Niño can cause significant weather and climate impacts in Australia. It’s also worth noting that no two El Niño events are the same and other external influences, such as regional ocean temperatures near Australia, and other climate drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), will likely affect how El Niño impacts Australia in the coming months.

23 Apr 2026, 1:28AM UTC

Anzac Day falls this Saturday, April 25. Here’s our wrap of forecast weather conditions for the Australian capital cities, as well as the likely conditions at dawn services around the country. Overall, Australia’s weather this weekend will be dominated by a broad ridge of high pressure centred over southern parts of the continent. This ridge will ensure stable conditions across most of the country, blocking Southern Ocean cold fronts from reaching Tasmania or the mainland. Of the heavily populated parts of the country, only the Queensland coastline and areas along the New South Wales coast and adjacent ranges north of about Newcastle can expect showers on Saturday. Image: Forecast synoptic chart for Anzac Day this Saturday, April 25, 2026, showing a broad area of high pressure dominating Australia’s weather. Source: Weatherzone. Anzac Day weather and dawn service conditions for the capital cities Anzac Day weather in Melbourne Melbourne’s unusually persistent spell of dry, mild, mid-autumn weather with maximums in the mid-20s will persist right through this weekend, with clear conditions on Saturday and an expected high of 25°C. By next Wednesday, Melbourne is likely to have experienced nine straight days with maximums that are around 3 to 7 degrees above the average April maximum of 20.4°C.  Dawn service conditions in Melbourne A relatively mild minimum around 13°C or 14°C is forecast for Melbourne on Saturday, and the low should occur around the time of the dawn service. Due to light breezes out of the northeast, the apparent or "feels like" temperature will be closer to 12°C. Melbourne’s average April minimum is 10.9°C. Anzac Day weather in Sydney Sydney will warm up this weekend with maximums of 25°C predicted for both Saturday and Sunday after a run of days with maximums close to the April average of 22.6°C. Only a few clouds are expected, with any NSW coastal rain likely to fall at least a couple of hours north of Sydney. Dawn service conditions in Sydney Sydney’s Saturday minimum should be around 15°C, with the apparent or "feels like" temperature only a degree or so lower. Minimums will be a few degrees cooler in the city’s west. Anzac Day weather in Brisbane Like Sydney and Melbourne, Brisbane should see an Anzac Day top temperature around 25°C, but unlike all other Australian capitals, Brisbane will see showers and could even see a late morning or afternoon storm, with the probability of rain dropping off in the evening. Dawn service conditions in Brisbane A minimum around 17°C is expected around the time of the dawn service, although it will obviously feel a little cooler when those showers arrive. Image: Mean sea level pressure and precipitable water over Australia for Anzac Day this Saturday, April 25, 2026. The atmospheric moisture which could generate showers can be seen near the Queensland coast. Source: Weatherzone. Anzac Day weather in Perth Sunny and dry with a high of 24°C is the short version of Perth’s Anzac Day weather. The maximum should rise to a warm 28°C on Sunday ahead of a cooler, wetter start to the new week as a relatively weak cold front flicks WA’s southwest. Dawn service conditions in Perth Expect a minimum of 10°C around dawn, with a slightly cooler apparent or "feels like" temperature under easterly winds. Anzac Day weather in Canberra The national capital is often the focus on Anzac Day due to events in and around the Australian War Memorial, and while the morning will be chilly and potentially foggy, skies will eventually clear and a mild maximum of 23°C can be expected. Canberra’s average April maximum is 21°C. Dawn service conditions in Canberra On Anzac Day 2024, the mercury in Canberra dipped to an icy -0.5°C. While Canberra won’t turn on a heavy frost this year, it will still be by far the coldest of the capitals, with a minimum around 3°C. Anzac Day weather in Adelaide Adelaide’s warm spell continues into Anzac Day, with a Saturday maximum of 28°C on the cards, after a run of well above-average days this week that included a maximum of 30.5°C on Tuesday. A late Anzac Day shower is possible. Dawn service conditions in Adelaide The surge of warmth pushing across South Australia ahead of a weak cool change due on Sunday will mean a mild morning on Anzac Day, with a minimum of 17°C. Adelaide’s average April minimum is 12.8°C. Image: Forecast minimums according to the ECMWF model for Anzac Day this Saturday, April 25, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Anzac Day weather in Hobart Last Saturday, Hobart’s maximum was just 13.5°C, and that wasn’t even the coldest day this month. This Saturday will be much more comfortable, with an Anzac Day maximum of 24°C on the cards under mostly cloudy but dry skies. Dawn service conditions in Hobart An unseasonably warm minimum of 13°C can be expected, which will be around four degrees warmer than the average April minimum of 9°C.  Anzac Day weather in Darwin The wet season is just about on its last legs in the Top End, and while Darwin had a couple of days of significant rainfall earlier this week, a dry pattern looks locked in for the next week or so, including Anzac Day, when the maximum should reach 34°C under sunny skies. Dawn service conditions in Darwin A minimum of 24°C will keep things comfortable for those attending the dawn service. Weatherzone would like to take this opportunity to express our respect and gratitude to all Australian servicemen and servicewomen, past and present. Lest we forget.