Australian Weather

14 May 2026, 2:16AM UTC

Adelaide and large parts of South Australia look set for significant rainfall, as a moist feed of tropical air combines with a developing inland trough. Rain is expected to develop on Friday and continue on-and-off through the weekend in the Adelaide area, with storms possible on Saturday. This rain will be welcomed by locals even if it disrupts outdoor activities on the weekend, as Adelaide has been relatively dry to date in 2026. As the chart below shows, the first four months of 2026 were wetter than usual in most parts of SA – and even exceptionally wet at some locations by local standards. But the area around Adelaide – including the Fleurieu Peninsula, the Adelaide Hills, and the city itself – has somewhat missed out. Image: SA rainfall deciles from January to the end of April, 2026, with pale red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. If you expand the time frame from four months to four years, you can see a similar pattern in South Australia, with above-average rainfall in much of the state’s north, but below-average rainfall in most parts of the state’s south and southeast – Adelaide included. Image: SA rainfall deciles in the four years to the end of April, 2026, with the red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. How much rain could fall in Adelaide? Adelaide started 2026 with a completely dry January, and that dry city gauge was no localised anomaly. Even up on Mount Lofty in the Adelaide Hills – where the annual average rainfall of 973mm is 81% more than the city’s 537.6mm - just 1.8mm of rain fell in January. Since the end of January, Adelaide’s rainfall has been close to average, without any exceptionally wet spells – especially compared to other parts of the state. For example, the town of Yunta in SA’s North East Pastoral forecast district saw a record 222.6mm in March. But from this Friday to next Tuesday, Adelaide could potentially see its wettest spell of the year – with the likelihood of 15 to 15mm over the five-day period, although some models are predicting as much as 40mm. Rain from an unusual direction One aspect of the incoming weather system is that it will arrive from the north and northeast. As mentioned in our story earlier this week on the widespread rain set to affect several states, that’s virtually the opposite of the usual direction for significant Adelaide rain, especially with winter approaching. 'It's also a slow-moving system, with the trough and front sliding southeast rather than pushing east due to the blocking high over the Tasman,"Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains. "This means the system will be in the vicinity longer, hence able to cause more rain." Image: Hourly graphs for Adelaide, SA, on the Weatherzone app. The rain that falls in Adelaide and elsewhere in SA this week will obviously help top up water storages, and it could boost water levels in Lati Thanda-Lake Eyre, where there’s extensive water to a depth of as much as 2.2 metres, according to the Lake Eyre Yacht Club. Interestingly, there could even be a minor reverse effect in this system, where Lake Eyre and other normally dry SA salt lakes provide small additional amounts of moisture for the rain heading further south. Instead of being a net absorber of moisture, those areas will be giving back to the atmosphere, even if it's only a relatively small amount. But this rainband would still happen without the influence of the lakes.

13 May 2026, 9:13AM UTC

Abnormally warm water in the Tasman Sea is affecting the weather in eastern New South Wales, insulating Sydney and making beach swims an ongoing option despite being less than three weeks away from winter. The East Australian Current (EAC) – a southward-flowing ocean current that transports water from the Coral Sea down the east coast of Australia – has caused several large pools of unusually warm water to develop in the Tasman Sea this month. These warm pools, also known as eddies, contain water that is around 2 to 4°C warmer than average for this time of year. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies during a 6-day period centred on May 5, 2026. The red areas show where sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C warmer than average for this time of year. Source: IMOS. Warmer-than-normal water is extending south from NSW towards eastern Victoria and Tasmania. According to data from Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing Sydney (IMOS), water temperatures in much of the western Tasman Sea are currently in the top 10% of historical records for this time of year. This warm water is influencing the weather over eastern Australia. Higher ocean temperatures cause air sitting just above the ocean’s surface to also become warmer. When onshore winds blow this maritime air towards land, it directly affects the air temperature in cities and towns along the coast. Daytime maximum temperatures in Sydney have been running around 2 to 4°C above average since late last week. Despite a brief cold snap earlier this month, the running average temperature during the first 13 days of this month have been more than 3°C above average, making this Sydney’s warmest start to May in 8 years. This week’s onshore winds are also carrying moisture-laden air from the warm Tasman Sea, resulting in showers along the coast and ranges. Image: Showers streaming over the NSW coast on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Water temperatures at the beaches are also a bit warmer than usual for this time of year, making it more pleasant than usual for swimmers and surfers. Looking ahead, relatively warm and showery weather will continue in eastern NSW for the rest of this week. Sydney will continue to see daytime maximum temperatures around 22 to 24°C, hovering a few degrees above the May average of 19.6°C.