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Severe Tropical cyclone Narelle will approach the north Qld coast bringing increasing winds & showers. Low pressure & broad scale instability stretching from the NT to southeast Aust will generate showers/rain & storms with heavier falls across eastern NSW.
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Today, 12:13AM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Narelle’s eye is producing lightning – that’s bad news for northern Queensland
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is gaining strength over the Coral Sea as it barrels towards northern Queensland, with clear signs that it could intensify further before making landfall on Thursday night or Friday morning. At 10 am AEST on Thursday, March 19, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle was category 5 system located about 355 km to the northeast of Cooktown. Sustained wind speeds at that time were estimated to be around 205 km/h near Narelle’s core, with gusts reaching about 285 km/h. Narelle is moving towards the west southwest at about 26 km/h, which is relatively fast for a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to continue on a westward track during the next 24 hours, which should cause it to make landfall over Qld’s Cape York Peninsula on Thursday night or Friday morning. Lightning near Narelle’s eye Satellite imagery shows that Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has a clear eye, which is characteristic of severe tropical cyclones (category 3 and above on the Australian scale). Another notable feature of Narelle is prolific lightning near its eye on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lightning near the core of a tropical cyclone is typically an indicator that it is gaining strength. This happens because warm and moisture-laden air rising in the cyclone’s eyewall creates thunderstorms. Cloud top temperatures near the eye of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle were colder than -90°C on Thursday morning, confirming the presence of towering convective clouds that were extending high into atmosphere, producing lightning. Image: Composite visible satellite images and lightning strike observations, showing lightning near the eye of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle on Thursday morning. Source: Weatherzone. What to expect when Narelle hits Queensland Current forecasts suggest that Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to intensify as it approaches northern Qld on Thursday. At this stage, the system is expected to make landfall somewhere between Lockhart River and Cooktown on Thursday night or Friday morning. Narelle should be a category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone when it crosses the coast. The impacts from Narelle are likely to include: Very destructive wind gusts in excess of 250 km/h near the eye of the tropical cyclone as it makes landfall. Destructive winds with gusts of up to 160 km/h are also likely between about Lockhart River and Cape Flattery, and may extend further south to Cooktown if Narelle takes a more southerly track. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is likely between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation, initially near the coast but also extending across the Cape York Peninsula after landfall. Heavy rain could also extend south along the coast towards Port Douglas, Cairns and Innisfail on Thursday and Friday. Abnormally high tides and large waves may cause coastal inundation near and to the south of Narelle’s eye as it approaches and crosses the coast, most likely between Coen and Cape Tribulation. Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay may rise significantly above the normal high tide to cause a dangerous storm tide. Image: Forecast wind gusts at 10am AEST on Friday, March 20, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Source: Weatherzone. Northern Territory next in line Narelle is likely to weaken after it makes landfall and moves across the Cape York Peninsula on Friday. It will then continue on a westerly track and pass over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday night into Saturday. Computer models suggest that Narelle will re-intensify over warm water in the Gulf before making a second landfall over the Northern Territory’s eastern Top End, possibly over Groote Eylandt, later on Saturday. At this stage, Narelle could be a category 3 severe tropical cyclone when it reaches Groote Eylandt. Narelle will weaken again after making landfall in the NT, most likely dropping below tropical cyclone strength as it moves across the Top End and Western Australia's Kimberley district on Sunday and Monday. This could cause more heavy rain over flood-ravaged areas of the NT around Daly Waters and Katherine. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next seven days. Source: Weatherzone. Looking further ahead, most forecast models suggest that the system will emerge off the Kimberley coast early to mid-next week, where it could re-intensify into a tropical cyclone once again.
18 Mar 2026, 3:40AM UTC
Cyclone Narelle to reach category 5 before Queensland landfall
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to become a powerful category 5 system – the highest tier on the Australian cyclone scale – before making landfall over northern Queensland later this week. Narelle strengthening over Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Narelle first became a tropical cyclone on Tuesday and had quickly strengthened to a category 2 system by Tuesday night. At 10 am AEST on Wednesday, Narelle was still a category 2 tropical cyclone, located about 970 km east northeast of Cooktown. Narelle is forecast to track towards the west over the next few days, allowing it to move through a region that will support steady-to-rapid intensification as it approaches the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula. The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest forecast track map, issued at 10:42 am AEST on Wednesday, predicts that Narelle will become a category 3 severe tropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Further strengthening is forecast from Thursday, with the system expected to reach category 4 intensity by Thursday morning and possibly hitting category 5 by Friday morning. At this stage, Tropical Cyclone Narelle could approach the coast as a category 5 system but will most likely make landfall as a category 4 system on Friday. The Bureau notes that “A category 5 peak intensity is forecast. This is expected to occur shortly before interactions with the Queensland east coast increase, and consequently some weakening before the centre of Narelle is anticipated. If Narelle tracks a little further north it may maintain category 5 intensity until landfall.” It’s important to point out that there is currently some uncertainty regarding how quickly Narelle will approach the Qld coast. It could move faster than expected and arrive on Thursday, which would limit how much it can intensify before landfall. Conversely, it could also track towards the west slower than is currently being forecast, which would give the system more time to gain strength before crossing the coast. Image: Enhanced infrared satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Narelle over the northern Coral Sea on Wednesday afternoon. Source: Weatherzone. What impacts to expect from Narelle The impacts from Narelle will depend on its strength at landfall. At this stage, Narelle will most like be a category 4 severe tropical cyclone when it reaches the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula. This strength would allow Narelle to produce average wind speeds in excess of 160 km/h and gusts above 225 km/h. Should Narelle manage to cross the coast as a category 5 tropical cyclone, average wind speeds would likely be above 200 km/h and gusts of 280 km/h or higher. Heavy rain, flash flooding, large waves, storm surge and coastal inundation are all likely to occur as Narelle makes landfall, regardless of whether Narelle is category 4 or 5 as it crosses the coast. At this stage, landfall will most likely occur somewhere between Port Douglas and Lockhart River. This is a region that already holds a world record for the largest storm surge from a tropical cyclone, when Tropical Cyclone Mahina caused a 13 metre storm surge near Bathurst Bay in March 1899. Image: Forecast track map from the Bureau of Meteorology, issued at 10:42 am AEST on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Where will Narelle go after hitting Qld? Tropical cyclones typically weaken after making landfall. While this post-landfall weakening is likely to occur after Narelle crosses the Qld coast, the system should pass over the Cape York Peninsula within about 12 hours. Narelle could still be a category 1 tropical cyclone when it emerges off the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula. Forecast models suggest the cyclone will then reintensify as it tracks over warm water in the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend. Based on current model guidance, Narelle could make a second landfall over the Northern Territory’s Eastern Top End on the weekend, possibly as a severe tropical cyclone (category 3 or higher). What Narelle does beyond this weekend is currently difficult to predict. Some computer models suggest that it will continue moving towards the west, carrying heavy rain over the NT and Kimberley on the weekend and early next week. The system could emerge off the north coast of Western Australia next week and possibly intensify once again. While forecast confidence is low for next week, there is a chance Narelle will impact the Pilbara coast at some point next week. It is incredibly rare to see a single tropical cyclone impacting three Australian states. The last time this happened was in 2005 when Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid followed a similar path, forming over the Coral Sea before making landfall in Qld, the NT and then WA. How to prepare for Narelle Anyone in northern Australia should get prepared and stay informed during this tropical cyclone. The Bureau recommends the following actions for residents in Qld: Stay informed by checking your local government’s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland. The NT Police, Fire and Emergency Services and WA’s Department of Fire and Emergency Services also have useful information on their websites to help plan and prepare for tropical cyclones.
17 Mar 2026, 11:23PM UTC
Sydney storms cause flash flooding, more rain to come
Severe thunderstorms caused intense rain and flash flooding in parts of Sydney on Wednesday morning, with more rain and storms on the way in the coming days. A relatively weak southerly change moving along the central NSW coastline on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, combined with a mid-level trough, caused heavy showers and thunderstorms to spread through parts of Sydney, the Illawarra and the Central Coast. The heaviest rain fell over Sydney’s Lower North Shore and Eastern Suburbs and on the Central Coast. Mosman received 95 mm in one hour early on Wednesday morning, and 130 mm between midnight and 9 am on Wednesday. Other notable rainfall rates on Wednesday morning included: 64 mm in 60 minutes at Pearl Beach 41 mm in 30 minutes at Rose Bay and Allambie 44 mm in 30 minutes at Cora Creek, Norah Head and Little Bay Rain rates above 10 mm in 10 minutes are typically enough to cause flash flooding in Sydney. Unsurprisingly, there were reports of flash flooding around Bondi and Rose Bay in response to Wednesday’s early morning downpours. Image: Composite radar and satellite images showing heavy showers and thunderstorms over central eastern NSW on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Source: Weatherzone. More rain to come Onshore winds combining with low pressure troughs will continue to cause showers and thunderstorms over NSW each day during the remainder of this week. This wet and stormy weather is likely to affect Sydney and surrounding areas, with potential for further severe thunderstorm activity. Severe storms are also likely to affect other areas of NSW this week as a broad inland trough interacts with the moisture-laden air feeding in from the Tasman Sea. The map below shows how much rain is predicted to fall between Wednesday and Friday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 11pm AEST on Friday, March 20, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As of 10am AEST on Wednesday, a severe weather warning was in place for heavy rain parts of the Upper Western district in northwest NSW, due to the inland trough. Further severe weather and thunderstorm warnings may be issued in the coming days, so be sure to check the latest warnings in your area.