Australian Weather

25 Oct 2025, 7:06AM UTC

Tropical Storm (TS) Melissa is set to impact Jamaica as a major hurricane early next week as the slow-moving system moves into a highly favourable environment for rapid intensification. While TS Melissa is already sitting over a very warm Caribbean Sea, it is forecast to shift slowly west-northwestward into even warmer water over the next 48 hours. There will also be low wind shear in this area, allowing the system to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Image: Sea surface temperature in the Caribbean Sea. Here, the ECMWF model is projecting that TS Melissa will move into the warmer waters shown in dark red by early morning on Monday, October 27. Melissa is then expected to shift northeast, potentially landing a direct hit on Jamaica during Tuesday, October 28. Parts of Jamaica could see sustained winds of 200km/h, gusting above 250km/h, and accumulate as much as 550 mm of rain as a result of Melissa's destructive power, while Jamaica's southern coast could experience a dangerous storm surge. Image: ECMWF wind gust forecasts at 18:00 UTC (about midday Jamaica time) on Tuesday, 28 October. The white blob near Jamaica's southernmost tip indicates wind gusts exceeding 250 km/h. Image: 24-hour rain accumulations to 06:00 UTC (1am Jamaica time), Wednesday, October 29. After impacting Jamaica, the system will continue its track to the northeast, hitting eastern Cuba, then the Bahamas, before tracking into the Atlantic, well east of the continental United States. Image: Forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Melissa over the next few days. Source: NOAA From there, Melissa may track towards Canada, possibly impacting Canada's far eastern provinces as an ex-tropical storm late next week.

24 Oct 2025, 5:02AM UTC

A dynamic mix of springtime weather will affect several states and territories in Australia this weekend, with widespread thunderstorms, heatwave conditions and elevated fire danger. The satellite images below show that thunderstorms and bushfires have already been affecting parts of central and northern Australia this week. Storms over WA and the Interior on Thursday brought 5-15mm of rain to the few rain gauges scattered over the remote outback region, including: 15mm at Giles, WA (wettest October day in eight years) 14mm at Wulungurru, NT (wettest October day in eight years) 6mm at Yulara Ap, NT (wettest October day in three years) Image: Composite satellite and lightning images from Thursday afternoon, showing widespread thunderstorms across eastern WA, and bushfire smoke across northern Queensland and the eastern NT. Nearly 400,000 lightning strikes have already been detected from these inland storms since early Thursday, and lots more lightning is on the way in the coming days. Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the WA interior and western areas of SA on Friday, before spreading further east into SA on Saturday and then deeper into southeastern and eastern Australia on Sunday. Thunderstorms could become severe over parts of WA, the NT and SA on Friday and Saturday, bringing the risk of heavy rainfall quickly deteriorating road conditions, as well as damaging wind gusts that could disrupt transport routes. The severe thunderstorm risk will be lower on Sunday as the storms shift their focus further east, although heavy rain remains a risk for parts of Vic, NSW and Qld. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over the next three days, some of which will fall from thunderstorms. Satellite images captured on Thursday also revealed large plumes of smoke from a number of active fires burning across northern Qld and the NT. Image: Visible images of bushfire smoke over Qld and the NT on Thursday, October 23, 2025. As fire services battle to contain already ongoing fires, they will also have to manage intensifying heatwave conditions and worsening fire weather in the coming days. Severe to Extreme heatwave conditions are forecast over parts of Qld, the NT and northern WA over the weekend, with consecutive days reaching the low forties in some areas. Image: Severe-to-Extreme Heatwave conditions forecast between Friday and Sunday, October 24-26, 2025, parts of Qld, the NT and WA. Hot, dry and windy conditions will maintain High fire danger ratings across large areas of northern and eastern Australia in the coming days. A cooling southerly change moving up through NSW on Monday and extending into Queensland on Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures and more manageable conditions next week. This southerly change will however bring a sudden wind change that could cause erratic fire behaviour, potentially worsening fire conditions briefly before they improve.