Australian Weather

14 Nov 2025, 5:13AM UTC

A period of dynamic late spring weather is upon us, with storms likely from Friday afternoon into the weekend across a large portion of the country. Many of these storms may be severe. The period of potentially dangerous weather is being generated by a feed of moist, warm unstable air pushing across the country from the warm waters of Australia’s tropics all the way to parts of southern Australia, Let's break down the areas most likely to be affected by storms over the next couple of days: Northern Territory Storms are possible in Darwin every day over the immediate forecast period, but that’s obviously no news flash for this time of year, with the wet season having started. But storms are possible from Friday evening into Saturday as far south as Alice Springs, with storms on the forecast for eight of the territory’s nine official forecast districts. Queensland Storms are possible in the coming days over large parts of Queensland too, with the southeast corner in line for some of the most dynamic weather. Early on Friday afternoon, the BoM issued a severe thunderstorm warning for damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall for parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast district, while Brisbane and the Gold Coast can expect a storm on Friday evening, Saturday, and possibly Sunday too. New South Wales The combination of heat and humidity has already brewed up storms in the northeast corner of New South Wales from around Tamworth to Byron Bay this Friday. 38.6mm of rainfall fell between 9am and 2:30pm at Grafton Airport (with 22mm in one hour around lunchtime), while 40mm fell within an hour late in the morning at Glenreagh, south of Grafton. Just after 2:30pm, a severe thunderstorm warning for damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall was issued for parts of the North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands forecast districts. By Saturday, storms are possible in Sydney and more southern parts of NSW, including the ACT.  Image: Two-hour combined radar and satellite loop showing storms moving across northeastern NSW early on Friday afternoon. Victoria Melbourne won’t be particularly warm this weekend, with maximums of 21°C and 20°C expected for Saturday and Sunday respectively, but there’s still the chance of showers and storms on both days (both in the city and elsewhere in Victoria) as a trough slowly crosses the state ahead of a cold front due Sunday night. South Australia The stormy weather predicted for Victoria has already reached parts of southern SA, with showers and the potential for a storm on Friday evening in and around Adelaide. Parts of the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, the Murraylands, and the state’s southeast corner could see Friday evening storms too. While southern parts of SA’s vast North East Pastoral and North West Pastoral forecast districts will likely remain dry, areas in the far north near the NT border could see storms on both Friday evening and Saturday. Tasmania Thunderstorms could occur all the way down in Tasmania as warmer air gives way to yet another wintry cold front late in the weekend. That front will bring snow to elevated parts of the state for at least the third time this November. Western Australia We haven’t forgotten the west but the storms largely have, with only the state’s tropical north and parts of the interior likely to see weekend storms. But most of the state will be dry, as the airflow from the broad-scale pattern mentioned at the top of this story feeds moisture and instability in a generally southeasterly direction across the continent.

13 Nov 2025, 1:43AM UTC

Sea surface temperatures exceeding 31°C off the coast of northern Australia are increasing the likelihood of early-season tropical cyclone activity, with hints of the season’s first tropical cyclone coming as early as next week. Tropical cyclones require sea surface temperature of 26.5°C or warmer to develop, with higher ocean temperatures providing more energy for cyclones to gain strength. Water temperatures to the north of Australia are currently sitting around 1-2°C above average for this time of year, with sea surface temperatures as high as 31°C to the west of the Top End and north of the Kimberley. Image: Sea surface temperatures near Australia on November 11. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The blob of warm water to the northwest of Darwin ranks in the top 10 percent of historical records for this time of year, meaning the ocean is primed to support tropical cyclone development in the coming weeks. Some forecast models suggest that a tropical cyclone could develop over this area of warm water next week. The Bureau of Meteorology’s official 7-day tropical cyclone forecast gives a low chance of a cyclone forming as early as Tuesday. Image: 7-day tropical cyclone forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology. Modelling from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also hints at growing tropical cyclone potential over the pool of warm water towards the end of next week. The map below shows that the ECMWF model is predicting a 20 to 30% chance of a tropical cyclone activity west of the Top End on Friday, November 21. Image: Tropical cyclone potential near Australia late next week. The colours on the map represent the likelihood that a tropical cyclone will pass within 300 km of that location within 48 hours of 11pm AEDT on Friday, November 21. Source: ECMWF Another factor that adds weight to the increasing potential for early-season tropical cyclone activity next week will be a tropical atmospheric wave passing to the north of Australia. This wave, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), should cause an increase of cloud and thunderstorm activity near northern Australia next week. This enhanced storminess can help create low pressure systems that can deepen to become tropical cyclones. While there is still only a low chance of a tropical cyclone forming near Australia next week, anyone living in northern Australia should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings. The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30 and the first tropical cyclone to form this year will be named Fina.