Australian Weather

Today, 2:52AM UTC

Like a huge sash across the continent, a massive northwest cloudband has produced soaking rain over large parts of the country, with more rain likely in the next day or two. During the weekend, this vast system produced rain in all states and territories of Australia, as an upper level trough combined with a tropical moisture feed. Image: 12-hour loop showing water vapour and rain radar up until 4am (AEST) this Monday, May 18, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Notable rainfall totals in the 24 hours to 9am Monday included: Queensland 106mm at Natural Bridge, the popular swimming hole about an hour west of the Gold Coast hinterland in the Numinbah Valley. Numerous falls between 25 and 50mm in far SW Qld, where it’s highly unusual to see heavy rain at this time of year. Numerous falls between 10 and 25mm in NW Qld, where heavy wet season rain is common, but significant May rain is unusual. NSW/ACT 106mm at Limpinwood (Bald Mountain) in the state's northeast, just over the border from the Natural Bridge stationed mentioned above. 39mm at Borrona Downs in the state's northwest. Useful falls around 15mm at multiple locations in central and northern inland areas, large parts of which have been exceptionally dry so far this year. Only light falls were recorded in the ACT and southern NSW, with 3.4mm at Canberra Airport. Image: Rainfall deciles in NSW from January to April, 2026. Some but not all of the red-shaded areas with recent rainfall-deficiencies saw useful rain over the weekend. Source: BoM.  Victoria Numerous very healthy falls in the 25 to 50mm range in the North Central forecast district (just north of Melbourne) and nearby areas. Melbourne itself had widespread falls of 10-25mm in central and eastern parts of the city, with falls tapering off around the CBD and suburbs further west. Melbourne’s official weather station at Olympic Park was right near the boundary of the heaviest rain and recorded only 6.6mm. Tasmania 40.2mm At Wynyard Airport on the NW coast, which is not where you often see the state’s highest daily rainfall total, except in a northerly flow with tropical moisture as occurred this weekend. 15.8mm in Hobart, which doesn’t sound particularly heavy, but which was the city’s heaviest daily fall to date in 2026. Western Australia You rarely speak of WA and Tasmanian weather in the same breath, but the NW tip of the vast cloudband that brought heavy rain to Tasmania was responsible for unseasonably heavy falls in the eastern Kimberley, including 64mm at Parry Creek Farm. Northern Territory Tennant Creek Airport received 14.4mm, which exceeded its May monthly average of 8.6mm in a day. Alice Springs Airport received 10.6mm. South Australia South Australia saw mostly light falls in the 24 hours to 9am Monday, as the main body of the rainband had moved east by then. But it was a different story a day earlier. Image: Water vapour over Australia showing the moisture feed over South Australia on the morning of Saturday, May 16, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. In the 24 hours to Sunday morning, the tropical moisture feed shown in the loop above produced 20mm in Adelaide, after 11.8mm the previous day. Adelaide has now amassed 52.2mm for May 2026 (long-term monthly average 67.4mm). What's next with this system? "Widespread rain will continue over NSW/ACT and Qld today, along with abnormally cool daytime temperatures beneath the thick northwest cloudband," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino says. "The heaviest rain today and tonight will be in northeast NSW and southeast Qld, where another 50-100mm could fall over the next 24 hours, with isolated falls possibly exceeding 200mm. This is on top of what's already fallen. "Rain will ease on Tuesday afternoon and night as the low moves offshore." A flood watch is in place for parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers districts in NSW today. At this stage, only isolated minor flooding is expected. Please check the latest on the Weatherzone warnings page.

17 May 2026, 3:04AM UTC

The Indian Southwest Monsoon will reach India in the next two weeks, but a developing El Niño could signal a drier than normal monsoon. Southwest monsoon onset over southern India in the next two weeks The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for tracking the advance and retreat of the monsoon over India. This weekend, the IMD issued the first progression of the northern limits of the southwest monsoon, just reaching the Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 16 May 2026, over the southern reaches of the Bay of Bengal. According to the IMD, the monsoon onset is likely to reach Kerala on 26 May 2026 (with a model error of ± 4 days), five days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1st. Image: Advance of the 2026 southwest monsoon onset (blue) and the normal dates of onset (red). Source: IMD To make this early forecast onset date the IMD monitors these key monsoon predictors: Minimum temperatures over Northwest India Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over South Peninsula Cloudiness over the South China Sea and northeast Indian Ocean Trade wind strength over the southeast and northeast Indian Ocean The southwest monsoon is characterised by a surge of westerly winds extending 5-7 kilometres above sea level. These winds are laden with moisture from the Arabian Sea, bringing periods of heavy rainfall and squally conditions across much of southern India. Image: Moisture laden monsoon clouds can be seen on satellite imagery moving from west to east over the southern Bay of Bengal on Saturday, 16 May 2026. Source: Weatherzone The southwest monsoon usually takes 4-6 weeks to progress into the far north of the country. The Western Ghats, an insurmountable mountain range along the west of India, splits the monsoon into the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches. DTN APAC Explainer: The Indian Monsoon The onset of the monsoon over the Indian sub-continent brings relief from sweltering heatwaves, but the heavy rainfall led to significant disruptions to transport and energy utilities. The monsoon rains are also imperative to India’s agriculture sector, with about three quarters of India’s rainfall occurring during the monsoon season. Nearly half of the Indian population is employed by the agricultural sector, which contributes greatly to the country’s economy. How climate drivers will impact the 2026 Indian summer monsoon The IMD predicts below normal (95-90% of the Long Period Average (LPA)) rainfall across India during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. The dominant factor driving the below average rainfall expected during the coming monsoon season is the predicted strong El Niño developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. While occurring in a different oceanic basin, El Niño events shift the Walker Circulation pressure pattern, leading to higher than normal pressure over the eastern Indian Ocean and weaker monsoonal winds. As a result, El Niño events are typically associated with reduced monsoonal rainfall and increased potential for drought, especially over northwestern and southeastern India. More locally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could move towards the positive phase late in the monsoon season. Positive IOD events are characterised by warmer than average waters in the IOD West region (see below), near the Horn of Africa. Warmer waters to the southwest of India increase the moisture content of monsoonal winds and can lead to increased rainfall during the rainy season. If this positive IOD event can become established, it will most likely peak after the end of the southwest Indian monsoon season, which runs till about September, but could contribute to increased monsoonal rainfall late in the season. Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly forecasts across the Indian and Pacific oceans during September 2026, showing the strong El Niño and possible positive IOD events. Source: DTN Another factor that seasonal forecasters need to consider ahead of the monsoon season is the northern hemisphere snow cover, especially around Siberia. The start of 2026 saw slightly below average snow cover extent, which can increase land warming during the springtime (reflecting less solar energy). This allows warm air to rise to the north of India, decreasing the pressure and drawing stronger monsoonal winds early in the season. As a result, an earlier monsoon onset over the sub-continent is possible in the coming weeks. Under the influence of these climate drivers, along with seasonal computer modelling, the IMD predicts India will experience 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) monsoon season (June to September) rainfall, with a model error of ±5%. While below average rainfall is forecast across broad parts of the country, parts of northeastern, northwestern and South Peninsular India could see average to above average rainfall, as seen in the seasonal model output below. Image: Probability forecast of below normal (yellow to red), normal (green) and above normal (blue) of 2026 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall across India. Source: IMD The 2025 southwest monsoon season featured heavy rain periods. The cumulative rainfall across the country throughout the season was 937.2mm, 107.9% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm. DTN APAC’s review of the 2025 southwest monsoon season Excesses or deficiencies in monsoonal rainfall can lead to floods or droughts, impacting India’s food security, livelihood and overall economy. Replenishments of water resources like rivers, lakes and groundwater vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies also impact hydropower energy generation.