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A cold front is bringing blustery winds, showers and small hail to SA, Tas and Vic. Showers for parts of Qld's east coast in moist onshore winds. A high is causing brisk winds to ease and most showers to clear in WA's south while keeping elsewhere dry.
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Today, 1:33AM UTC
Huge pool of cold air surging towards SE Australia
A large pool of cold air with origins in the polar region is surging across the Great Australian Bight and is set to chill Tasmania and the southeastern corner of mainland Australia in coming days. The cold air is clearly visible on Wednesday morning’s satellite image, with a tell-tale speckled cloud pattern over the Bight. As Weatherzone meteorologist Corine Brown explains, "the speckled clouds are cumulus cloud cells that form when frigid air moves over relatively warm water. This creates instability, with each cell potentially producing rain, hail, snow, or thunderstorms. Between them lie clear patches of sky." Image: Four-hour combined satellite and radar loop to 11 am (AEST) on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, showing the cold airmass over the Bight pushing eastwards. Source: Weatherzone. Cold winds to fuel frigid "feels like" temperatures Numerous locations across the southeastern mainland and Tasmania are facing their chilliest day of 2026 to date on Thursday. And even if the mercury doesn’t officially register the lowest maximum of the year, it will still likely feel like the coldest day in many places. For example, Melbourne’s coldest day of 2026 so far was July 7, when the maximum reached just 11.0°C. But that was on a relatively still day after a heavy morning fog took many hours to lift. While Melbourne’s Thursday maximum is expected to reach 12°C, the apparent or "feels like" temperature should be no warmer than 6°C for most of the day, due to those bone-chilling southwesterly winds whipping across Victoria. Hobart will feel even colder. While Thursday’s forecast maximum is 9°C, the "feels like" temperature is expected to remain below zero all day, with snow falling to as low as 300 metres above sea level in southern Tasmania. That means Hobart’s highest suburbs could see snow flurries. Image: 3-day forecast for Hobart, Tas. The brown line shows the apparent or "feels like" temperature which is set to remain below freezing throughout daylight hours on Thursday. Source: Weatherzone. How much rain and snow can we expect? This will be a much wetter, snowier system for Tasmania than for the mainland. As the chart below indicates, western and parts of central Tasmania can expect heavy totals of rain or snow in coming days, while accumulated totals from this event will be lighter elsewhere. Image: Accumulated precipitation to 10 am on Saturday, July 25, 2026 across SE Australia, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The Victorian coastline can expect to see showers for several days, however the overall total from this event will still be below 20 mm at most locations. For the mainland alpine region, a few centimetres of snow should accumulate on Thursday and Friday, and while the top-up will be welcome, this will not be the big blizzard the ski resorts are hoping for, with snow levels still relatively moderate for this time of year. But there are signs of another cold front early next week which could push further north, delivering more meaningful snowfalls. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live snow cams and more.
21 Jul 2026, 12:30AM UTC
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has gone negative – what this means for Australia
Plenty of Sydney sunshine and heavy rain and snow in Tasmania will be some of the impacts caused this week by a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) that has just developed in the Southern Hemisphere. What is the Southern Annular Mode? The SAM is an index that reflects changes in the strength and position of a westerly wind belt encircling Antarctica. These westerly winds flow between Australia and Antarctica throughout the year, carrying cold fronts and low pressure systems from west to east. The SAM fluctuates between neutral, positive and negative phases throughout the year: A neutral SAM occurs when the westerly winds are in a normal position for that time of year. When the westerly wind belt strengthens and contracts southward towards Antarctica, the SAM is in a positive phase. When the westerlies slacken and expand further north towards Australia, the SAM is in a negative phase. Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which take months to develop, the SAM can switch between positive and negative phases in a matter of days. Image: Mean 850 hPa wind speed during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter (June to August). Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org What is the SAM doing now? The SAM was recently in a prolonged positive phase between late May and early July, with the index becoming extremely positive in June. This strong positive SAM phase contributed to a lacklustre start to the 2026 snow season in the Australian Alps. The recent positive SAM phase ended around July 9, and the index has continued to drop since then. Over the weekend, the SAM index dropped to -1.83 on Saturday, which is the lowest value since December last year. Forecast models suggest this negative SAM phase should persist for the rest of this week and possibly until the end of July. Image: Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index between November 1, 2025, and July 18, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. At this time of year, a negative SAM usually causes more winter storm systems over southern Australia and often enhances drier westerly winds over eastern Australia. Tasmania will feel the influence of the negative SAM this week when a powerful low pressure system blasts the state with wind, rain, hail and snow between Wednesday and Friday. This is likely to include low-level snow on Thursday as frigid polar air causes temperatures to plummet across the state. The temperature in Hobart will feel lower than 1°C for most of Thursday. Image: Forecast accumulated precipitation over Australia during the next seven days, showing heave falls in western Tasmania. Source: Weatherzone. Showers will also affect other areas of southern Australia this week, including Victoria, South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia and New South Wales. By contrast, eastern NSW will see a run of dry weather under the influence of westerly winds. Sydney could remain completely dry all week with maximum temperatures reaching 19 to 21°C on most days. This is several degrees above the July monthly average of 16.5°C.
20 Jul 2026, 7:26AM UTC
Low-level snow coming to Tasmania this week
Snow could fall in higher parts of Hobart later this week as a polar air mass causes temperatures to plummet across Tasmania. A pool of very cold air will sweep across Tasmania between Wednesday and Friday this week, driven by a complex low pressure system passing to the south of Australia. The coldest part of this air mass, which originated near the fringe of Antarctica, will pass over the state on Thursday. In addition to the cold air – which will send temperatures below 0°C over large parts of the state – the wintry system will also blast Tasmania with powerful west to southwesterly winds. This will create teeth-chattering wind chill and bring damaging to destructive wind gusts in some parts of the state. Image: Forecast wind gusts at 4pm AEST on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While Hobart’s maximum temperature is forecast to reach 10°C on Thursday, wind chill will make it feel lower than 0°C at times during the day. There is some uncertainty regarding how low snow will fall from this system, with indications that it could drop to around 400 metres above sea level on Wednesday and 200 metres on Thursday. There is even a chance of a few flakes reaching sea level in the state’s south on Thursday. Image: Forecast 850 hPa wind temperature at 10pm AEST on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. You can check the Weatherzone app to see how low temperatures are predicted to get across Tasmania later this week, along with the latest severe weather warnings during this system.