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A cold front brings gusty showers, and a few thunderstorms across southeast SA, coastal Vic, inland and southeast NSW, the ACT and Tas. Onshore winds are bringing showers to parts of tropical north Qld and southwest WA. High pressure is keeping elsewhere dry and settled.
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Today, 4:33AM UTC
NSW shaken by three earthquakes in nine hours
Three separate earthquakes were detected across NSW on Monday night into Tuesday morning, with reports of shaking coming in from the coast to the state’s far west. According to Geoscience Australia, the trio of earthquakes occurred between 11pm on Monday and 8am on Tuesday AEST. Earthquake 1 The first tremor of this sequence was a 3.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred shortly after 11pm to the west of the Macquarie Marshes, roughly 50 km to the southwest of Carinda. Despite occurring in a sparsely populated part of the state, shaking from the earthquake was felt in at least three separate locations to the west of the epicentre. Earthquake 2 Monday night’s earthquake was followed by a shallow 3.7 magnitude earthquake near Muswellbrook in the Hunter Valley just after 2:20am on Tuesday. The epicentre of this earthquake was at the site of the Mount Arthur Coal Mine, a region that has seen a flurry of earthquakes in recent years, including magnitude 4.7 and 4.4 earthquakes on two consecutive days in August 2024. While mining operations can induce weak and shallow earthquakes, less than magnitude 2, research has shown that even large open pit mines are not able to trigger moderate or strong earthquakes. Earthquake 3 A third earthquake occurred near Bulahdelah just before 7:50am on Tuesday. This 3.1 magnitude tremor occurred at a depth of 9 km and was felt from Nelson Bay up to Forster and inland to Maitland, with Geoscience collecting around 100 felt reports across the Hunter and lower Mid North Coast regions. Image: Felt grid for the Bulahdelah earthquake on Tuesday morning. Source: Geoscience Australia. How common are earthquakes in Australia? Australia is in a relatively stable region of the planet for earthquake activity. Earthquakes are more common and stronger along Earth’s tectonic plate boundaries, which are the areas where large pieces of Earth’s crust meet each other. Australia is classified as a ‘stable continental region’, which means it sits far away from any major plate boundaries. While this does not make Australia immune to tremors, it means that most earthquakes in Australia are shallow, but they can still be powerful. On average, Australia experiences about 100 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or more each year, while earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 only happen about once every two years. Stronger earthquakes exceeding magnitude 6 only happen about once per decade in Australia. One aspect of earthquakes that is often misunderstood is how much more powerful they become as you move up through the moment magnitude scale. Every whole unit you go up represents a 30-fold increase in the amount of energy released by the earthquake. This means that a magnitude 6 earthquake releases 27,000 times more energy than a magnitude 3 earthquake (30 x 30 x 30). You can track the latest earthquake activity in Australia on the Geoscience Australia website.
Today, 1:53AM UTC
Melbourne activates its 'rain shield', dodging moisture from the northwest
Melbourne locals hoping for the first decent soaking of the 2025 spring would have been disappointed after rain dodged most suburbs overnight, with no rain recorded at the city’s main Olympic Park gauge – or in most other locations across the city – in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday. Melbourne has received just 5.4mm of rainfall in the first half of September, with no more than 1.2mm on any day. The long-term monthly average for September is 58mm. The prospects for rain looked promising overnight as bands of moisture could be seen streaming across Victoria on the radar – so how did Melbourne dodge the rain? Image: Combined radar and satellite loop in the 12 hours from 8:30pm to 8:30am this Tuesday, September 16, 2025. The answer lies in Melbourne's 'rain shield' against moisture from the northwest. 'Rain shield' is not an official meteorological term. It’s a phrase we’ve coined to help you visualise the blocking effect of the Macedon Ranges, about an hour’s drive north of the Melbourne CBD, which act as a barrier to rain reaching the city when it comes from the northwest. Melbourne’s most reliable rainfall comes from the southwest, when showers stream across Port Phillip Bay and douse the city. Often this rain comes with cold fronts with their chilly, blustery winds – and as any Melburnian knows, these weather systems can strike even in midsummer. Two of Melbourne’s four heaviest rain days of 2025 to date came from southwesterly systems. On January 6, a bitterly cold system for that time of year delivered 24.6mm (and a maximum of just 18.9°C). On March 16, 18mm was recorded in another cold southwesterly, with an unseasonable maximum of just 19.1°C on the 17th. But not all significant Melbourne rain events originate in the southwest. Melbourne’s heaviest rain day for 2025 to date was January 12, when 31mm fell. That was a day of severe thunderstorms across a wide area – and winds in Melbourne that day blew from just about every direction (except the northwest). And of course, there are exceptions to every rule. Melbourne’s heaviest day of rainfall in the 2025 winter was June 8, when 15.2mm was recorded under consistent northwesterly winds. What happened to the 'rain shield' that day? A strong low pressure system centred over Victoria pulled moisture from the Southern Ocean up into central Victoria, then slung it back towards Melbourne as air rotated clockwise around the low. So that June 8 system wasn’t your typical northwesterly stream where air flows towards the southeast from the interior of the continent. That more typical pattern is illustrated well on today’s synoptic chart. Image: Synoptic chart for Tuesday, September 16, 2025. In summary, significant rain can and does occasionally fall in Melbourne when it comes from the northwest. But on days like today and yesterday with a broad-scale northwesterly stream across southeastern Australia, it’s less likely due to the blocking effect of the Macedon Ranges – which are only about half as high as the Victorian Alps to Melbourne’s northeast, but still hefty enough to influence Melbourne’s weather. Meanwhile the chance of showers persists in Melbourne this Tuesday and Wednesday, with a higher chance of the first meaningful spring rain from Friday through to Monday, as winds shift to the west and southwest. Our Melbourne forecast is here.
15 Sep 2025, 9:16AM UTC
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole underway – here's what it means for Australia
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is now underway, increasing the likelihood of above average rain over large parts of Australia in the coming months. What is the IOD? The IOD is an index used to monitor sea surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean. It’s an important index for the Australian region because it can have a strong influence on weather patterns across the country. The IOD index measures the difference between sea surface temperature anomalies on the western and eastern sides of the tropical Indian Ocean. A negative IOD occurs when we see cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Indian Ocean, near the Horn of Africa, and abnormally warm water sits in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, near Indonesia. You can see a clear example of this negative IOD pattern in the image below. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian Ocean on September 13, 2025, showing a clear negative IOD pattern with cooler than average water in the IOD West region and warmer than average water in the IOD East region. Source: NOAA When a negative IOD is occurring, westerly winds become enhanced across the tropical Indian Ocean, which forces moisture-laden air to flow over Australia from the northwest. This injection of tropical moisture can link up with cold fronts and low pressure troughs crossing Australia to produce large bands of rain and cloud. When a negative IOD is in place, we usually see above average rain and thunderstorm activity over large areas of Australia, along with changes to daytime and nighttime temperature regimes across the country – some areas see abnormally cool conditions and other areas experience relative warmth. Image: A typical negative IOD setup. What is the IOD doing now? The IOD index has been below zero since the start of July and has remained below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4°C since late July. For a negative IOD to officially be declared, the index needs to stay below -0.4°C for at least eight consecutive weeks. The latest weekly IOD index value was -1.17°C, measured during the week ending on September 14. This was the eighth consecutive week below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4°C, which means this can now be officially classified as a negative IOD event. Image: Weekly Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index between 2019 and 2025. This is the first negative IOD event since 2022. Forecast models suggest that this negative IOD event will persist through the remainder of spring and possibly into the beginning of summer. While no two negative IOD events are the same, they usually have similar impacts on rainfall and temperature across Australia. Rainfall Large areas of Australia typically see above average rainfall when a negative IOD is in place. Because the moisture associated with the IOD comes from the northwest, areas on and west of the Great Dividing Range are more susceptible to the rain it brings. Some areas along the country’s east coast don’t see much of a boost in rainfall when a negative IOD is underway. One area that can see below average rain from a negative IOD is the southwest of WA, largely because the feed of moisture coming from the tropical Indian Ocean passes to far north and east to impact this part of the country. The map below shows how a negative IOD typically impacts rainfall distribution across Australia between September and November. Image: Observed mean rainfall deciles during spring (September to November), averaged over eight moderate to strong negative IOD events combined. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Maximum temperature The increased cloud cover and rainfall associated with a negative IOD can have a big impact on temperatures across Australia. Large areas of southern, central and southeastern Australia typically experience below average daytime maximum temperatures during a negative IOD, particularly across the Murray Darling Basin. By contrast, daytime temperatures are often warmer than normal in northern Australia when a negative IOD is in place during this time of year due to the proximity to warerm waters. Image: Observed mean maximum temperature deciles during spring (September to November), averaged over eight moderate to strong negative IOD events combined. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Minimum temperature Australia’s springtime minimum temperatures are also affected by the IOD. Nights are typically warmer than average across far northern Australia and parts of the east. By contrast, minimum temperatures are often near to slightly below average across large areas of southern and central Australia. Image: Observed mean minimum temperature deciles during spring (September to November), averaged over eight moderate to strong negative IOD events combined. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The influence a negative IOD has on suppressing temperatures and increasing rainfall often helps to reduce bushfire activity over most of Australia during spring. It’s important to note that the IOD is not the only climate driver that influences Australia’s weather on a seasonal timescale. The impact of the IOD can be enhanced or suppressed by other climate drivers, including La Niña, El Niño and the Southern Annular Mode.