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A front crossing Vic and Tas brings gusty winds, showers and the odd storm to southern SA, Tas and Vic. A high over the Bight drives onshore showers along Qld's tropical north coast while maintaining dry conditions across the remainder.
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Today, 2:11AM UTC
Perth facing driest July in 14 years
Perth is facing the very strong likelihood of having its driest July since 2012, with no significant rainfall expected before the end of the month. To date in July 2026, Perth has received 56.8 mm of rainfall Perth's average rainfall for July (historically the wettest month of the year) is 147.8 mm. The last time Perth had less than 100 mm in July was in 2020, with a total of 83.4 mm. That means this July will almost certainly be the driest since 2012, when just 34.6 mm of rainfall was recorded (the lowest on record for the month). Why has Perth been so dry this month? Perth receives almost all of its winter rainfall (and the vast majority of its annual rainfall) from cold fronts originating in the Southern Ocean which sweeping across Western Australia’s South West Land Division. In July 2026, those fronts have been relatively infrequent, and not particularly moisture-laden. The absence of rain-bearing cold fronts is consistent with weather patterns associated with the recent very strongly positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The SAM is a major climate driver that measures the north-south movement of the westerly wind belt encircling Antarctica. During a positive SAM (as we’ve had through much of July 2026), the belt of westerlies is further south. That typically means less rain for Perth and the southwest. And it’s not just Perth that has had a dry month Manjimup, in the state’s South West forecast district, has had 52 mm (to date this month July average 173 mm). Albany, in the state’s South Coastal forecast district, has had 50.1 mm to date this month (July average 146.6 mm). Northam, in the Central Wheat Belt, has had just 12.2 mm to date this month (July average 81.6 mm). As things stand now, the large wheat belt town of Northam is facing the unwelcome prospect of its driest July in 149 years of records. The driest was 13.6 mm in 2012. When will the winter rains return? Image: Rainfall accumulation predicted for southwest WA up until 8 pm (AWST) on Monday, August 3, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. A cold front will clip the southwest on Saturday, bringing showers, although rainfall totals are not expected to be particularly heavy at this stage. The good news is that the SAM has recently returned to negative territory, increasing the likelihood of more frequent rainfall events throughout August. Image: The last 12 months of SAM data to July 26, 2026. Source: BoM. It’s important to state that a negative SAM doesn’t lock in the prospect of significant rainfall in coming weeks. Sometimes, the nodes of cold, wet weather tend to peak on the eastern side of Australia rather than in the west. But the signs are good. For the record, Perth received close to its average rainfall in June 2026, with 121.6 mm (June average 127.2 mm). So while July has been dry, and while the city will not repeat its 2025 feat of receiving above-average rainfall in each winter month, a wet August could still bring the seasonal total close to average.
Today, 1:08AM UTC
Why do clouds float?
Clouds are made up of water droplets and ice crystals. So, why don’t they fall to the ground? Clouds appear to defy gravity by hovering above Earth’s surface every day. If you can’t see any in the sky above you, a quick look at the latest images from a weather satellite will show a variety of cloud formations stretching across the planet. Being an everyday occurrence, a cloud’s ability to hang in the sky might seem unimpressive. But have you ever wondered how clouds manage to float while other precipitation, including rain, hail and snow, fall to the ground? Perfect balance between gravity, buoyancy and updrafts A cloud's ability to float comes down to a delicate balance of forces: gravity against buoyancy and updrafts. In the context of Earth’s atmosphere, gravity is the force that pulls objects towards the ground. It acts on everything in the sky, including clouds. It never switches off. If you throw a ball in the air, gravity is what brings it back down. There are also other forces that oppose gravity in the atmosphere, including buoyancy and updrafts. Image: Low-level clouds are usually composed of small water droplets while high clouds often contain tiny ice crystals. Source: iStock / guvendemir. You may be familiar with buoyancy in water – it’s the force that keeps boats and rubber duckies afloat. But the atmosphere also has buoyancy that tries to push objects upwards in the opposite direction to Earth’s gravitational pull. However, the buoyancy of air is much weaker than the buoyancy of water, which is why boats can’t fly. Why updrafts matter Rising air currents – known as updrafts – also oppose the force of gravity in the atmosphere and the stronger the updraft, the more it acts against gravity when an object is trying to fall. If an object is small enough, the upward force of buoyancy and rising air currents can match or exceed the downward force of gravity. Image: Three main forces acting on rain drops and cloud droplets. Source: Weatherzone. Cloud droplets are so small – typically less than 0.02 mm in diameter – that the force exerted on them by Earth’s gravity is also small. In areas where relatively warm air is rising in the sky, this small gravitational force is counteracted by this updraft and the atmosphere’s buoyancy. Cloud droplets are so small that they fall very slowly, meaning even a weak updraft can keep them afloat. What happens when cloud droplets get too big? The small size of cloud droplets is the key to clouds being able to hover in the sky. When cloud droplets start to get too large, their mass increases the force of gravity, which eventually outweighs the opposing force of buoyancy and rising air currents, causing them to fall towards the ground. Some raindrops can grow to around 6 mm in diameter. An important note about raindrops is that small changes in their size make a surprisingly big difference to their weight. Double the width of a droplet and its volume increases eightfold. When water droplets in clouds get too heavy, they fall as rain, hail or snow. Next time you see a cloud in the sky, take a moment to stop and appreciate the natural balancing act taking place in the atmosphere.
27 Jul 2026, 1:33AM UTC
Midweek cold front to bring rain, snow, strong winds to the southeast
A classic midwinter cold front will surge across southeastern Australia on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing rain, strong winds, and snow to higher elevations of Tasmania and the mainland alpine region. While this will not be a particularly powerful or long-lived system, it will still bring a burst of cold, wintry conditions that will punctuate a period of relatively stable weather either side of it. You can see the system brewing over the waters of the Great Australian Bight, southwest of the WA/SA border, in the satellite loop below. The system will track rapidly eastwards over the next 24 to 48 hours. Image: Satellite loop for the two hours to 10:30 am (AEST) on Monday, July 27, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains, “the low pressure system passing over Tasmania on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will drive cold air and moisture over southeastern Australia during the middle of this week.” How much rain and snow can be expected? As the chart below shows, the heaviest precipitation is likely in western and central parts of Tasmania, while parts of the South Australian and Victorian coastlines and mountainous areas of the southeast can also expect a good drop of rain or snow. Of the southeastern capitals, Melbourne could do best, with an event total of around 10 mm likely, which would take Melbourne up from its running monthly total for July 2026 of 40.0 mm to around the July average of 47.1 mm. For the mainland ski areas, snowfall totals of 10 to 20 centimetres are likely. This would be a handy top-up, but would definitely not qualify as a season-defining snowfall event. Image: Accumulated rainfall forecast for SE Australia up until 10 am on Thursday, July 20, 2027, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The most recent reading at Spencers Creek – the highest of three sites in the Snowy Mountains of NSW where hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro has regularly measured snow depths in the cooler months since 1954 – was 68 cm on July 21. The average depth at Spencers Creek for the end of July over 72 years of data is around 120 cm. The season with the lowest peak depth on record was 2006, with 85.1 cm in late August. Due to snow compaction, it’s possible that we still won’t have exceeded the 2006 high mark after the coming event. Image: A comparison of the lightest snow season on record, 2006 (light blue), and the 2026 season to date (dark blue). Source: Snowy Hydro. Fortunately for snow enthusiasts and snow industry businesses, we still have the whole of August to come – and the recent trend towards a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is historically a good pointer towards the prospects of snowfalls, although it is no guarantee. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.