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Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving south, causing winds to strengthen & rain & storms to increase in the NT's far north. Showers & storms are scattering across WA, western SA, Qld & NSW in active troughs, some are intense. A front is bringing brisk winds & showers to Vic & Tas.
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Today, 3:04AM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Fina to pass near Darwin this weekend – here's what to expect
Tropical Cyclone Fina has turned towards the NT coast and is expected to make landfall over the Top End on Friday. The system could then regain strength over the warm Van Diemen Gulf, before passing close to Darwin on the weekend. Where is Fina now? Fina is currently sitting off the north coast of the NT. At 9:30am ACST on Thursday, November 20, Tropical Cyclone Fina was a category two system located roughly 405 kilometres northeast of Darwin. Wind speeds near its core were averaging 95 km/h and gusting to about 130 km/h. While Fina had been moving towards the east on Wednesday, it took a right-hand turn overnight and has now started to move south, a track that will allow it to approach the NT’s Top End over the next 24 hours. Where will Fina make landfall? Fina is expected to pass over the Cobourg Peninsula and Croker Island as a category two tropical cyclone late on Friday, where it will cause heavy rain, damaging to destructive winds and abnormally high tides. Some of this severe weather will also extend to parts of the Tiwi Islands into Saturday morning. Tropical Cyclone Fina is likely to weaken as it crosses the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night. However, it should re-intensify on Saturday as it moves over warm water in the Van Diemen Gulf. Fina is expected to be a category two tropical cyclone as it traverses the Van Diemen Gulf, although there is small chance it could reach category three strength on Saturday as it draws energy from the warm water in the Gulf. Image: Current satellite image and extended forecast track map for Tropical Cyclone Fina. Valid at 1:10pm AEDT (11:40am ACST) on Thursday, November 20. Source: Weatherzone. Will Fina hit Darwin? The current forecast track for Fina shows the system exiting the Van Diemen Gulf and moving through the Clarence Strait on Saturday afternoon, before passing north of Darwin on Saturday night. While the official forecast track keeps Fina more than 40km to the north of Darwin on Saturday night, some computer models suggest it could move closer to, or even directly over Darwin on the weekend. It is important to point out that there is notable disagreement between models regarding how close Fina will get to Darwin on the weekend. The two maps below show different predictions for Fina’s position on Saturday night. Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday afternoon. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday night. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: Weatherzone. Regardless of exactly how close Fina gets to Darwin, the city and surrounding areas are likely to be impacted by heavy rain and damaging winds on Saturday and Sunday. At this stage, the most intense weather in the Darwin region will occur between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. After passing Darwin, Fina is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction on Sunday and Monday. At this stage, it could approach the northern Kimberley coast for another landfall early next week, causing heavy rain, flooding and damaging to destructive winds. Rainfall totals from Fina are likely to reach about 100 to 300 mm across a broad area of the northwest Top End, with isolated falls reaching around 500 mm. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over the next 7 days, according to the ECMWF model. The darkest blue shading indicates rainfall more than 300mm is expected. Source: Weatherzone. Wind speeds will depend on the tropical cyclone’s strength over the coming days, with category two tropical cyclones typically causing gusts of 125 to 164 km/h. Category three tropical cyclones can cause wind gusts of about 165 to 224 km/h. Tropical cyclone warnings, marine wind warnings and flood watches have been issued for parts of the NT. Check the latest warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information on this system.
19 Nov 2025, 5:34AM UTC
Tropical cyclone north of Australia, polar airmass to the south
Australia is currently sandwiched between a tropical cyclone to the north and a strong polar airmass to the south, with dramatically different conditions in real time at opposite ends of the continent. While it’s obviously commonplace for Australia’s temperate and tropical regions to have vastly different weather systems concurrently, Wednesday’s satellite image illustrates the contrast in unusually dramatic fashion. Image: Unsurprisingly due to the two systems mentioned in this story, western Tasmania and waters north of Darwin were seeing some of the heaviest showers anywhere in Australia at 2:30pm (AEDT) on Wednesday. Up north: Tropical Cyclone Fina Over the warm waters of the Timor Sea, Tropical Cyclone Fina continues to gain strength. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explained earlier on Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Fina is a small system, with gale force winds only extending about 50 to 60 nautical miles (approx, 90-110 km) from its core. "Small tropical cyclones are able to fluctuate in strength more rapidly than larger systems, which means they can strengthen or weaken fairly quickly,” Domensino wrote. Fina is expected to become a Category 2 cyclone on Wednesday night and remain at that strength until it makes landfall on Friday and into the weekend over the Tiwi Islands – just north of Darwin – and then possibly the mainland. Down south: yet another strong spring cold front Tasmania and the high country of NSW and Victoria have seen light or even moderate snowfalls up to four times already this November, and Tasmania is set for another round beginning this Wednesday evening. The snow level could be as low as 600 metres in the state’s southwest by Thursday, with a snowline of 700 metres on the Central Plateau and on kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart. You can see the speckled cloud typical of airmasses with polar origins surging towards Tasmania and Victoria in the loop below. Image: Three-hour combined radar and satellite loop on Wednesday afternoon for SE Australia. The speckled pattern occurs when very cold air moves over a relatively warm area of ocean, causing a large number of individual cumulus clouds to develop over a broad area. Each of those cloud cells can produce rain, hail, snow and thunderstorms, with patches of clear sky in between, and the pattern they produce is in many ways as instantly recognisable as the swirling circular cloud mass of a tropical cyclone. Australia is currently in a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). When the SAM is negative, the dynamic cold weather systems that circulate the globe in the Southern Ocean tend to be pushed northwards towards Australia. READ MORE: Southern Annular Mode - What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? That’s what we’ve seen frequently this November, with average maximum temperatures in both Melbourne and Hobart trending well below the monthly average at this stage.
18 Nov 2025, 7:43PM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Fina forms north of Darwin, landfall possible this weekend
An early-season tropical cyclone has formed to the north of Darwin and is gaining strength, with landfall as a category two system possible on Friday or Saturday. A tropical low that had been steadily intensifying over the Timor Sea on Tuesday reached tropical cyclone strength early on Wednesday morning, becoming Tropical Cyclone Fina. At 3:30am ACST on Wednesday, Fina was located 315 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and travelling towards the east northeast at 9 km/h. Image: Enhanced infrared satellite images showing Tropical Cyclone Fina forming to the north of Darwin on Wednesday morning. Source: Weatherzone. Tropical Cyclone Fina is a small system, which has helped it gain strength rapidly. Its small size also means that gale force winds only extend about 50 to 60 nautical miles from its core. Small tropical cyclones are able to fluctuate in strength more rapidly than larger systems, which means they can strengthen or weaken fairly quickly. Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to move towards the east northeast on Wednesday and intensify to a category two tropical cyclone by Wednesday night. It should then turn towards the southwest on Thursday and approach the NT’s northern coastline on Friday. At this stage, Fina could impact the Top End coast and Tiwi Islands on Friday into the weekend. The current forecast track suggests that Fina could pass close to Darwin on the weekend, possibly as a category two tropical cyclone. Image: Extended track map for Tropical Cyclone Fina, valid at 4:11am ACST on Wednesday, November 19. Source: Weatherzone. An ocean wind warning has been issued for some NT waters and tropical cyclone watches and warnings will be issued over the coming days as Fina gets closer to land. Anyone living in the NT’s Top End should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings and follow advice from the NT Government to prepare for possible impacts from this tropical cyclone.