Australian Weather

Today, 2:19AM UTC

The Australian region is primed for severe tropical cyclones this season, despite an ongoing trend of reduced tropical cyclone activity over Australian waters in recent decades. Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from the start of November to the end of April. During this six-month period, the Australian region usually sees around 9 to 10 tropical cyclones, with about five of these becoming severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) and four systems making landfall. Image: Tropical cyclone season averages for the Australian region. Tropical cyclone activity decreasing near Australia The number of tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region each season has decreased in recent decades. Since 1980, the total number of tropical cyclones per season has been reduced by about one system every 11 years. However, there has not been a similar drop in the number of severe tropical cyclones, which means the proportion of systems that become severe tropical cyclones (category three or higher) in each season has increased. Seasonal tropical cyclone numbers are also influenced by El Niño and La Niña, with La Niña years typically producing more tropical cyclones near Australia and El Niño years often bringing fewer Australian cyclones. Image: Tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region between 1980 and 2024, including the long-term trend in cyclone activity and identification of La Niña and El Niño seasons. The cause of Australia’s declining tropical cyclone activity in recent decades is an active area of research. It is likely due to a combination of natural variability and climate change. What to expect this season Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts are difficult because there is usually a lot of variability from season to season. However, looking at how readily available the key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation will be in the season ahead can provide useful insights into what to expect. The key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation are: Warm sea surface temperatures of 26.5°C or higher Low wind shear, meaning wind speed and direction doesn’t change too much with height An existing area of low pressure and convective activity (a cluster of thunderstorms) This season will have plenty of warm water and convective activity to spawn tropical cyclones, thanks to above average sea surface temperatures surrounding most of northern Australia. A weak La Niña-like pattern and the tail end of a negative Indian Ocean dipole will also help maintain this abnormally warm tropical water near Australia early in the season. Image: Sea surface temperature outlook for December 2025, showing abnormally warm water surrounding Australia. However, this ample cyclone fuel will be counteracted by the background influences that have underpinned the long-term decline in cyclone activity near Australia in recent decades. With all these factors considered, conditions are expected to favour a near to slightly above average number of tropical cyclones in the Australia region this season. There should also be a higher-than-average proportion of severe tropical cyclones, meaning that once systems do form, they have an increased risk of intensifying rapidly. More than half of the tropical cyclones that form in the Australian region this season could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher. One of the most important things to understand about tropical cyclones is that it only takes one to have a big impact on communities and the landscape in northern Australia. Regardless of how many tropical cyclones form near Australia this season, if you live in the tropics, be sure to have an action plan ready in case one approaches your region this season. Cyclone names this season Naming tropical cyclones in the Australian region is the responsibility of the Bureau of Meteorology and has been occurring since the 1960s. These names are assigned using a predetermined list that runs in alphabetical order and alternates between male and female names. The next 11 tropical cyclone names that will be used for systems forming in Australia’s area of responsibility are shown below, starting with Fina. Image: Tropical cyclone names to be used for the next 11 systems that form in the Australian area of responsibility. If a tropical cyclone forms in a neighboring region, such as Fiji or Indonesia, the system will be named by that country’s national meteorological service. This name is then retained if the cyclone moves into the Australian region.

23 Oct 2025, 2:20AM UTC

There has been a stark temperature contrast between Australia’s west and east coasts this month, with Perth running more than 1°C below average while heat records tumble on the other side of the country. The southern half of Australia has been stuck under the influence of abnormally strong westerly winds in recent weeks. These stubborn westerlies – which have occurred in response to a rare episode of Sudden Stratospheric Warming above Antarctica – have had a big impact on temperatures. Image: Average 850 hPa wind anomalies during the first 20 days of October 2025. Source: NOAA Cool in the west Onshore winds carrying cool air from the Southern Indian Ocean towards southwestern Australia have stifled temperatures along the country’s west coast this month. Perth’s running average maximum temperature during the first 22 days of the month was 22.2°C, which is about 1.3°C below average for October. The city has also only had one day over 30°C since the start of the month, while an average October usually produces about three days above 30°C. Rainfall has been healthy in the west this month, with Perth already picking up 41 mm in the last three weeks, slightly above the city’s October average of 39 mm. Hot in the east While the country’s west coast has escaped the heat this month, the east coast of Australia has been baking. The abnormally strong westerly winds flowing across the southern half of Australia this month have caused hot air from the country’s interior to spread towards the east coast. Image: Hot air over central and eastern Australia and milder air over the country’s southwest on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Sydney and Brisbane are both on track to have their hottest Octobers on record based on average maximum temperatures. Sydney has already registered 7 days over 30°C so far this month, which is five more than usual and a new record for October. The city has also only received 5 mm of rain since the start of October, well below the long-term monthly average of 78 mm. Looking ahead, Perth will continue to see days in the high teens to low twenties for most of the final week of October, with a couple of warmer days early next week. The east coast will stay relatively warm until at least early next week, particularly in Brisbane. Image: Daily forecasts for Perth in the Weatherzone app. Here are the forecast maximum temperatures for all three cities over the coming week: Perth Thursday 23rd: 21°C Friday 24th: 19°C Saturday 25th: 21°C Sunday 26th: 21°C Monday 27th: 24°C Tuesday 28th: 28°C Wednesday 29th: 21°C Sydney Thursday 23rd: 22°C Friday 24th: 25°C Saturday 25th: 25°C Sunday 26th: 28°C Monday 27th: 26°C Tuesday 28th: 19°C Wednesday 29th: 31°C Brisbane Thursday 23rd: 34°C Friday 24th: 32°C Saturday 25th: 28°C Sunday 26th: 33°C Monday 27th: 36°C Tuesday 28th: 26°C Wednesday 29th: 27°C