Australian Weather

Today, 12:49AM UTC

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that La Niña is officially over, with forecasts now pointing at a rapid transition to El Niño later this year. The Bureau’s latest Southern Hemisphere Monitoring report, issued on March 31, declared that “the 2025-26 La Niña has ended.” This declaration ends a La Niña episode that started in spring last year and contributed to above average rain over large areas of northern and central Australia. Image: Rainfall deciles during the 6-month period from October 2025 to March 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The past six months had clear hallmarks of La Niña, with widespread above-average rain, flooding in multiple states and even drought relief in some parts of the country. It was, however, a relatively weak La Niña and did not bring wetter-than-usual weather to some parts of Australia. This is a good reminder that no two La Niña events are the same and their impacts can vary considerably from one La Niña to the next. What comes next for Australia? The Pacific Ocean has now transitioned into a neutral state, meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño are in place. This neutral phase is likely to persist until at least late autumn, during which time the tropical Pacific Ocean will have little influence on Australia's weather. Looking further ahead, there are strong signs that El Niño could emerge later this year. While sea surface temperatures are currently near average at the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, there is a large pool of abnormally warm water building beneath the surface. This deep warm water is expected to emerge at the surface in the coming months, which increases the likelihood of El Niño. Image: Forecast sea surface temperature anomalies in June 2026, showing a tongue of abnormally warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which is a clear sign of El Niño. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Most international forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s model, expect El Niño conditions to emerge sometime between late-autumn and late-winter and then persist into the second half of the year. Some forecast models also suggest the possibility of a strong El Niño, or super El Niño, developing later this year. However, the strength of an El Niño does not always reflect the strength of its influence on Australian weather. El Niño impacts on Australian weather El Niño occurs when warmer than average water sits at the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and cooler than average water lies at the surface of the western tropical Pacific. This sea surface pattern is associated with changes in wind and pressure in the overlying atmosphere, which act to reduce cloud and rainfall over parts of Australia. Image: Typical impacts of El Niño in Australia. Source: Weatherzone. El Niño typically contributes to below average rain and above average maximum temperatures over large parts of Australia. It can also enhance bushfire risk, increase the frequency and severity of frost and decrease the peak seasonal snow depth in the Australian alps. Autumn predictability barrier It is important to note that forecasting El Niño and La Niña is notoriously difficult at this time due to a phenomenon known as the ‘autumn predictability barrier’ (or ‘spring predictability barrier’ in the Northern Hemisphere). This predictability barrier refers to forecast models having less reliability before and during autumn in the Southern Hemisphere, with model accuracy typically increasing during winter. However, despite still needing to move past the autumn predictability barrier, there is strong consensus between forecast models that El Niño is on the way in 2026. So, while this outlook should still be treated with caution in the coming weeks, there are already clear signs that the transition to El Niño could be underway.

01 Apr 2026, 10:18PM UTC

Australia has experienced one of its increasingly rare cool temperature anomalies in March 2026, with below-average nationwide maximums which were the coolest since 2012. But minimum temperatures nationwide were much warmer than usual, meaning that Australia’s overall temperature in March was still well above the long-term average. Image: Historical March maximum temperature anomalies in Australia since 1910. Source: BoM. Average Australian temperatures in March 2026: Maximum temperatures across Australia were 0.24°C below the long-term average Minimum temperatures across Australia were exactly 1°C above the long-term average The national area-averaged mean temperature (the combination of daytime and night time readings) was 0.38 °C above the long-term average. Image: Maximum temperature deciles in Australia in March 2026. Source: BoM. Australian rainfall in March 2026 This year saw the 8th-wettest March since nationwide records were first collated in 1900, with 69% more rain than the long-term average, and above-average rainfall in all states and territories except Tasmania. As you can see on the map below, only a large chunk of northeast NSW and adjacent parts of Queensland were significantly drier than usual. Most of the mainland was much wetter than average, including large parts of the outback. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in March 2026. Source: BoM. Rainfall was the highest on record for parts of the NT’s Top End, Qld’s Wide Bay and Burnett district and Cape York Peninsula, and eastern SA and adjoining areas in western NSW and Victoria. For South Australia as a whole, it was the 2nd-wettest March on record. How rainy weather made days cooler and nights warmer There’s a strong and fairly obvious correlation between Australia’s relatively cool maximums in March 2026 and the abundant rainfall in most parts of the nation. Cloudy skies usually tend to knock off a few degrees during the day, which explains the relatively cool daytime temperatures. There was also a correlation between the above-average rainfall and the warm minimums Australia experienced in March. Clouds act as a blanket at night, absorbing heat radiated from the Earth’s surface and preventing it from escaping upwards. Meanwhile, Australia’s hottest temperature in March 2026 was 44.6°C at Mount Magnet in WA, while Perisher Valley in NSW fell to -3.4°C.