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Today, 1:10AM UTC
Strongest positive SAM in three years – what does this mean for Australia's weather?
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has just reached its highest value since 2023. But what exactly does this strong positive SAM mean for Australia’s weather in the immediate future? What is the Southern Annular Mode? The SAM is one example of what meteorologists call "climate drivers". These are broad-scale processes that drive the movement of heat, wind and moisture across the oceans and atmosphere. We've all heard of El Niño (which was declared last week) and its cousin La Niña. These climate drivers are associated with shifts in sea surface temperatures and wind and cloud across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The SAM is a climate driver which influences the north-south displacement of the belt of powerful winds which flow year-round from west to east over the Southern Ocean, relative to where the belt would normally be positioned at a given time of year. The position of the belt of westerlies over the Southern Ocean has strong impacts on Australia’s weather, especially in southern and eastern parts of the country. In winter, the belt of westerlies is typically located closer to Australian latitudes, while in summer, it contracts southwards towards Antarctica. But a positive or negative SAM can shift its location. Image: How a positive SAM typically impacts Australia’s weather in winter. Source: Weatherzone. During a negative SAM in winter the band of westerlies is located closer to Australia, making cold fronts and low pressure systems more active than usual across Australia's southern states. This can enhance wind, rain and snow in southern Australia. A positive SAM in winter (see above chart) tends to have the opposite effect, forcing the westerly winds, cold fronts and low pressure systems further south than usual for this time of year, reducing their influence on Australia’s weather. While a positive SAM in winter tends to reduce the frequency of moisture-laden Southern Ocean systems pushing towards southern Australia, it does increase the chances of wet weather pushing onshore to Australia’s east coast from the Tasman Sea. The green patch in the image above illustrates this. And right on cue, a rainy spell is forecast for parts of NSW and Queensland starting later this week. What does the current strongly positive SAM mean for our weather? The SAM index reached a strongly positive value of +4.23 on June 21, which is a three-year high. That means that mean sea level pressure is currently trending higher than normal near Australia's latitudes, and the westerly wind belt that flows between Australia and Antarctica is located further south than usual for this time of year. This has been evident in the sort of weather we’ve seen lately across southeastern Australia, with fewer cold fronts, frequent blocking high pressure systems, and unseasonably warm temperatures. The last time the SAM index reached 4 (or higher) was in May 2023, when it peaked at 5.5. The values in the index are a measure of standard deviation from the norm in terms of mean sea level pressure. In very basic terms, it means we’ve seen a lot more highs than lows. Image: The trend of the SAM over the last 12 months, showing how this week’s value is the highest over that period. Source: BoM. What a positive SAM typically means for snowfalls in Australia Image: Minimal natural snow up high at Blue Cow ski area, part of Perisher resort. Thankfully, a string of cold nights is allowing snowmaking on many slopes at Australian ski resorts, enabling at least some skiing and snowboarding for the forthcoming school holidays. Source: ski.com.au. With the school holidays rapidly approaching and the ski slopes bare and grassy across most of the Australian Alps, a positive SAM is not good news for the snowfields. We already know that there’s a strong correlation between El Niño years and low snowfall in Australia. Compounding that, snow-bearing cold fronts tend to visit Australia’s shores less frequently during a positive SAM in winter. Thankfully, neither of these climate drivers prevents the occasional strong, cold, moisture-laden system from surging northwards towards Australia. So while the big picture indicators provide little cause for optimism, the day-to-day variability of individual weather systems still offers hope. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live snow cams and more.
22 Jun 2026, 1:11AM UTC
Coldest night of the year in three cities
Three Australian cities all shivered through their coldest temperatures of 2026 to date overnight, in the cool, crisp air in the wake of a cold front. Adelaide After its coldest maximums of the year over the weekend, Adelaide fell to 3.5°C early on Monday morning after Sunday’s low of 4.0°C was the coldest June night in two years. Adelaide’s average June minimum is 8.5°C and its lowest on record was 0.8°C in 1944. Hobart Hobart hit a low of 3.2°C at 7:43 am this Monday, its first morning below four degrees this year. Hobart’s average June minimum is 5.2°C and its lowest on record was -2.8°C in 1972. Launceston Like downtown Hobart, most of Launceston is just a few metres above sea level, but Tasmania's second-largest city is situated about 40km inland, meaning generally colder winter nights. Overnight, the mercury dipped to -0.8°C, the coldest of the three subzero minimums this year to date. Widespread cold temperatures on Monday morning Slightly further afield, Launceston Airport (at 166.9 metres above sea level) saw its lowest reading of 2026 to date, with -2.8°C, while Liawenee on Tasmania’s Central Plateau had the state’s lowest overnight reading of -5.1°C. Light cloud at the alpine resorts of New South Wales and Victoria prevented the mercury from plummeting below about -2°C overnight, while the lowest reading on mainland Australia was at Glen Innes on the NSW Northern Tablelands, which recorded -3.0°C just before 7am. Though it’s located just 100 km south of the Queensland border, Glen Innes typically experiences extremely cold nights in winter due to its valley location at an elevation over 1000 metres. Indeed, the town of 6200 residents recorded Australia’s coldest temperature of -10.8°C in 2023. More typical winter temperatures this week across southern Australia Image: Predicted mean sea level pressure anomalies for 8 am (AEST) this coming Wednesday, June 24, showing how high pressure will dominate southern Australia’s weather midweek. Source: Tropical Tidbits. The last two weeks were exceptionally warm by winter standards across southern Australia, with the exception of the southwest corner (including Perth). Adelaide and Melbourne even had 20-degree days. This week, temperatures will be much closer to the winter average across southern Australia, even if they’re not particularly frigid. The weekend cold front that pushed across the southeast was not a particularly strong system, but it left behind enough cool air to prevent significant unseasonable warming this week, even as a strong ridge of high pressure establishes dominance over Australia’s weather patterns. The high will produce stable weather conditions across much the country, blocking influxes of cold, unstable air from the Southern Ocean until a cold front approaches southwest WA on Thursday night into Friday.
21 Jun 2026, 7:03AM UTC
Adelaide's coldest day so far this year
This morning, Adelaide Airport experienced its coldest temperature of the year so far, with the mercury falling to 2.4°C. Temperatures were also quite cold in the heart of the city with West Terrace dropping to 4.0°C, the coldest June temperature recorded at that location in about 2 years (coldest since 30 June 2024). Why was it so cold in Adelaide this morning? Skies were clear and winds were calm during most of the overnight hours, and these conditions enhanced radiational cooling. This weekend also marks the winter solstice, and the long night allowed for an extended period of cooling. It is no coincidence that both locations recorded their minimum temperatures after 7am, or within 30 minutes of sunrise. Image: Forecast minimum temperatures for 21 June 2026 according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The clear skies and light winds that were observed across southern SA early this morning were caused by a ridge of high pressure which was centred just south of the Eyre Peninsula. Similar conditions were observed in Streak Bay, where the temperature fell to 1.9°C this morning, which is the coldest June temperature at that location in 11 years.