Australian Weather

18 Jun 2026, 1:10AM UTC

An unseasonable weather pattern has dominated the first half of June across southeastern Australia, with average temperatures much closer to late autumn than early winter. All five southeastern capitals (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra) are currently tracking at well over two degrees above their average maximum and minimum temperatures – and it’s more than three degrees with both Sydney and Melbourne. In fact, Melbourne just registered its warmest June night in well over a century of records, with a very mild overnight low of 16.4°C. However, the official daily minimum temperature for the 24 hours ending at 9 am on Thursday was 16.2°C from Wednesday morning. This beats the old June record of 16.1°C from 2001. Why has June 2026 been so warm to date in the southeast? There have been two main reasons for the unusually warm conditions by June standards in the most populated part of the country. Image: Mean sea level pressure in Australia on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, showing the high pressure system which has dominated SE Australia’s weather all week finally starting to push out into the Tasman Sea. Source: Weatherzone. A persistent ridge of high pressure situated further south than usual for this time of year has blocked significant outbreaks of polar air from reaching southern Australia, apart from one brief system in the first few days of June. The position of the highs has enabled air with tropical origins to stream southwards from the Indian Ocean, with a series of northwest cloudbands crossing the country. The good news about the northwest cloudbands is that they have delivered welcome rain to many areas – although the rain has been not so welcome in the snowfields, where temperatures have been several degrees too mild for natural snowfalls and for overnight snowmaking. It’s also worth noting that cold fronts have been regularly clipping the southwest corner of Australia this June to date. That’s why Perth is the only Australian capital city currently tracking (slightly) below its long-term June average for both maximums and minimums. While Brisbane and Darwin have both been marginally warmer than usual for June by day and by night, their mild start to winter has been much less pronounced than in the southeast. Let’s break down those very mild maximums in June 2026 to date in Adelaide, Melbourne, Hobart, Sydney, and Canberra. Maximum temperatures more like mid-to-late autumn in southeastern capitals Hobart Hobart’s running maximum for June 2026 is 15°C. Hobart’s long-term average maximum for June is 12.1°C, for May is 14.6°C, and for April is 17.5°C. So Hobart’s maximums to date this June have been closer to what you’d expect in late April or early May. Melbourne Melbourne’s running maximum for June 2026 is 17.1°C. Melbourne’s long-term average maximum for June is 14.1°C, for May is 16.8°C and for April is 20.4°C. So like Hobart, Melbourne’s maximums to date this June have been closer to what you’d expect in late April or early May. Sydney Sydney’s running maximum for June 2026 is 20.6°C. That includes an ongoing streak of 11 days where the mercury has hit 20°C or higher. Sydney’s long-term average maximum for June is 17.0°C, for May is 19.6°C, and for April is 22.6°C. So Sydney is yet another southeastern capital where maximums to date this June have been closer to what you’d expect in late April or early May. Canberra Canberra’s running maximum for June 2026 is 15.2°C. Canberra’s long-term average maximum for June is 13.2°C, for May is 16.5°C, and for April is 21.0°C. So Canberra is experiencing a June with temperatures closer to those you’d expect in May, and it’s worth noting that it’s now nine days since the city has seen a sub-zero overnight low, which is unusual in a month where the average minimum is 0.9°C. Adelaide Adelaide's running maximum for June 2026 is 18.2°C. Adelaide's long-term average maximum for June is 15.8°C, for May is 18.6°C, and for April is 22.3°C. So Adelaide is experiencing a prolonged run of maximum temperatures much closer to the May average than the June average. Cooler conditions more typical for June are coming Image: Synoptic chart for Friday, June 19, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. In all of the cities mentioned, cooler conditions are about to set in. Indeed, the cool air has arrived in Adelaide, where the maximum is to reach just 15°C this Thursday, with maximums hovering around 14°C or 15°C for the next week. You can see the cold front pushing across the southeast on Friday in the synoptic chart above. It’s not the strongest cold front you’ll ever see, but it’s the most active cool system to cross southeastern Australia over the last two weeks. Snow lovers can expect a few centimetres of the fluffy white stuff at higher elevations this weekend, but it’s unlikely that this system will be the big "season-starter" everyone is hoping for, as much of the moisture arrives (as rain) before the coolest air kicks in. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest alpine conditions and forecasts.

17 Jun 2026, 4:50AM UTC

El Niño was officially declared by the BoM on Tuesday, June 16. So how might it affect snowfall prospects for the rest of the Australian snow season? The 2026 Australian snow season got underway on June 6, but warm overnight temperatures have hindered snowmaking since then, while rain has washed away the early snowfall that arrived just before the traditional King’s Birthday long weekend season opening. While it’s still early days, it hasn’t been an auspicious beginning. Currently, only a few very basic beginner slopes at some New South Wales and Victorian resorts are open, thanks to the remnants of early season snowmaking. Typically, El Niño years have coincided with below-average Australian snow seasons, although that doesn’t necessarily mean the 2026 season will turn out to be a dud. Let’s dig a little deeper. Image: Remnant snow patches from early season snowmaking at Perisher on June 16, 2026. Source: Steve Smith. What is El Niño and how does it form? El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a global ocean and atmospheric phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific. The other phases are La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). You can read a full breakdown of what causes El Niño in our explainer story on the Weatherzone news feed. But the brief version is: El Niño occurs when warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and trade winds weaken or reverse over the Pacific. This in turn affects rainfall and temperature patterns on both sides of the Pacific, and potentially further afield. El Niño tends to suppress cloud and rainfall across large parts of Australia, especially the eastern half, which in turn often leads to warmer daytime temperatures. How El Niño typically disrupts the Australian snow season El Niño typically reduces the amount of rainfall that occurs during winter and spring over eastern Australia. Combine that with an increased likelihood of above-average daytime temperatures in southern and southeastern Australia from winter through spring, and the chance of heavy snowfalls decreases, while the resilience of the snowpack is often compromised due to warmer temperatures. The graph below shows the relationship between Australian snow depths and so-called 'super' El Niño events – a term applied to very strong El Niños, which this year’s event is projected to be. Image: Season peak snow depths at Spencers Creek NSW (as measured since 1954 by Snowy Hydro), with very strong or ‘super’ El Niño years highlighted in red. Source: Weatherzone. Note that three out of four seasons (1982, 1997, 2015) which coincided with super El Niño events had significantly below-average snowfall. It’s also worth noting that the lowest season on record at Spencers Creek (2006, peak depth just 85.1cm) occurred during the El Niño event of 2006/07. "No two El Niño events are the same and stronger El Niño events do not necessarily relate to stronger impacts in Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino says. "While the presence of El Niño and the background influence of climate change increase the likelihood of below-average peak snow depth in the Australian Alps this season, it only takes a few decent snowfalls to offset the influence of El Niño." So overall, while strong or even relatively weak El Niños do not bode well for consistently snowy Australian winters in our snowfields, they don’t mean there’s no chance of a good season. You never know when a strong, cold system lurking in the Southern Ocean will surge across southeastern Australia. Which resorts are most at risk of low snow levels? As ever, Australia’s lowest ski resorts are most at risk of a poor snow season. Even in 2025 – which was a decent season at higher altitude resorts like Perisher and Thredbo (NSW) and Mt Buller, Falls Creek and Mt Hotham (Vic) – Australia’s lower resorts like Mt Baw Baw (Vic) and Selwyn Snow Resort (NSW) had relatively short-lived, mediocre seasons. Baw Baw tops out at around 1550 metres, while Selwyn’s highest point is around 1600 metres. Increasingly, the Australian snowpack is unreliable at lower elevations. So our lower resorts potentially have an extra level of vulnerability this year. Image: No natural snow and not even a few patches of snowmaking snow on the snow cam at Selwyn Snow Resort in NSW on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Source: ski.com.au. What are forecasters saying about long-term and short-term snow prospects this season? The BoM’s latest long-range forecast for July to September, issued on June 11 (before El Niño was declared, predicted the likelihood of: Below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia. Above-average daytime temperatures in Australia south of the tropics. Above-average overnight temperatures for much of the country. This is obviously not great news for snow, but as mentioned, individual or multiple weather events can change the picture quickly for the snowfields. In the short-term, a few flakes are likely to fall on Friday into this Saturday with a coming system, but unfortunately, most of the moisture will likely fall as rain in warmer air ahead of the influx of cooler air from the south. Looking further ahead towards the last week of June, further light snowfalls are possible but only at higher elevations. At this stage, no significant snow-laden cold front lies on the horizon. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and much more throughout the 2026 Australian snow season. Here's hoping the snowfields are soon at their wintry best. Image: Ski runs at Mt Hotham in Victoria with Mt Feathertop in the background during a good Australian snow season. Source: iStock/Chris Gordon.