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A strong high over southeastern Australia is sending showers onto western Tas, coastal Vic, northeast NSW and southeast Qld. The same high drives dry, gusty winds across the north and brings showers to the Top End. A cold front will bring increasing showers to southwest WA.
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30 Jul 2026, 8:42PM UTC
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be developing – What this means for Australia
One of Australia’s main climate drivers – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – may have just entered a phase that typically brings warm and dry weather to Australia. What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? Australia's weather is shaped by the seasons – cooler winters, warmer summers, and rainfall patterns that vary significantly depending on the time of year and location. But layered on top of this natural seasonality are larger, slower-moving climate drivers that can push conditions above or below average for that time of year. The most well-known climate driver that influences Australia’s weather is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between El Niño, neutral and La Niña phases. On the other side of Australia is a similar climate driver called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Indian Ocean. It is calculated by comparing the anomalies in two defined regions: The IOD East region, which sits to the southwest of Indonesia The IOD West region, which lies off the east coast of Africa, near the Horn of Africa Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean on July 28, 2026. The IOD West and IOD East regions are highlighted. Source: NOAA. The IOD fluctuates between positive, neutral and negative phases. A positive IOD occurs when sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the IOD East region and warmer than average in the IOD West region. This phase is typically associated with abnormally warm and dry weather in Australia, particularly in winter and early summer. A negative IOD occurs when cooler-than-average water sits in the IOD West region and abnormally warm water lies in the IOD East region. This phase often causes above average rain and below average maximum temperatures in Australia. What is the IOD doing now? The weekly IOD index rose to +0.44°C during the seven days ending on July 26, which is the first time it has exceeded the positive IOD threshold of +0.4°C since March this year. Image: Weekly IOD index values. Source: Weatherzone. This is a sign that a positive IOD may be developing, however, the index will need to remain above +0.4°C for several consecutive weeks for this to be declared as a positive IOD event. Forecast models suggest that this could be the start of a positive IOD event. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “models suggest a positive IOD may develop during the southern hemisphere winter and persist into spring, although there remains some variation in the timing and strength of this potential event.” In addition to the potential positive IOD, the coming months will also be influenced by an established and strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. This climate driver will also promote abnormally dry and warm weather in Australia through late winter and spring. Seasonal forecast models are responding to the influence of these two climate drivers, hinting at drier-than-average weather over large parts of Australia in the coming months. Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall in September, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Meteorologists will be watching the IOD closely in the coming weeks to see if these early signs of a positive IOD mature into a fully fledged event. Keep an eye on the Weatherzone news feed for regular IOD updates in the weeks and months ahead.
30 Jul 2026, 1:43AM UTC
Darwin shivers through coldest two nights of the year
Residents of the Northern Territory’s Top End and adjacent parts of Western Australia have endured their coldest nights of the year, with minimum temperatures plunging several degrees below the July average. Everything is relative in the way we experience weather, and Darwin locals would have been pulling the blankets and doonas out of the cupboard as the mercury in the city fell to 16.7°C overnight, after a low of 16.5°C the night before. These were the first two nights of 2026 to date where the mercury fell below 17 degrees. While Darwin’s record July (and annual) low of 10.4°C (set in 1942) wasn’t threatened, the last two nights were still well below the July average minimum of 19.3°C, in what is typically the year’s coldest month for both maximums and minimums. Image: Minimums across Australia on July 30, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. While the Top End wasn't as cool overnight as the NT inland or southern Australia, it was still chilly by local standards. Source: Weatherzone. Widespread cold nights in northern Australia Over the border in Western Australia’s Kimberley region, the weather station on Australian Defence Force land at Yampi Sound, near Derby, recorded an overnight minimum of 4.4°C, after a low of 4.6°C on Wednesday morning – the year’s coldest nights to date. No statistically meaningful averages are available for Yampi Sound as the station only opened in 2019, but it’s worth noting that in August 2024, the site registered Australia’s hottest winter temperature on record with a maximum of 41.6°C. Numerous subzero readings have also been registered this week in the inland regions of the NT and Queensland and northern WA. Alice Springs had a run of five sub-zero nights from Saturday through to Wednesday morning. The Sunday minimum of -3.2°C was comfortably the year’s coldest to date although it was still a way off the July (and annual) record low of -7.5°C, set in 1976. Queensland registered its coldest night of the year to date on Sunday when the Darling Downs town of Oakey, near Toowoomba, recorded a minimum of -5.4°C. Oakey’s record July low is -7.2°C, set in 1982. That was an El Niño year like this one, which typically increases the likelihood of dry winter conditions and cold minimums in inland Qld. Why have minimums in northern Australia been so low this week? Image: Synoptic chart at 10 am (AEST) on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Winter took a while to get going in 2026, with much of June dominated by tropical air pushing southwards across the country from waters north of Australia. In late July, and particularly this week, we have reverted to a more typical winter weather pattern, with southern airmasses influencing weather in the north, as air circulates around strong high pressure systems located over southern Australia, like the one in today’s synoptic chart (above). Will Darwin nights remain "cold" for the rest of the week? The good news for Darwin locals is that minimums in coming nights should be a few degrees warmer than the last two nights, as air passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria before reaching the city, with an associated rise in humidity and overnight temperatures.
29 Jul 2026, 1:28AM UTC
Bitterly cold across the southeast with fresh snow and wild winds up high
The cold front that crossed Tasmania and the southeast mainland overnight has left up to 15 centimetres of fresh snow at higher elevations, with strong winds and low temperatures creating bitter conditions in the alpine region. This Wednesday also promises to be one of the coldest days of the year to date in many lower elevation locations across South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, the ACT and southern New South Wales – especially when you factor in the apparent or "feels like" temperature. At 10 am, it was still just -5.2°C at Australia’s highest weather station, Thredbo Top Station at 1957 metres, with a “feels like” temperature of -17.3°C as winds gusted above 60 km/h. The strongest gust overnight was 120 km/h just before 2 am. Hobart was just 7.2°C at 10 am, with a “feels like” temperature of 2.5°C. Melbourne was 10.6°C at 10 am with a “feels like” temperature of 7.0°C. The mercury is expected to reach just 13°C, which would make it just the third day this month to fall below the long-term average July maximum of 13.5°C. Spectacular speckled cloud mass reveals air with polar origins The loop below shows the cold front moving overnight. Image: Combined satellite and radar loop for SE Australia for the eight hours to 10 am (AEST) on Tuesday, July 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The heaviest band of moisture that produced rain and snow on the southeastern corner of the mainland moved through in the small hours of the morning, while Tasmania saw some of the heaviest precipitation from this system during the daylight hours of Wednesday morning. The speckled cloud pattern which is clearly visible over waters south of SA and Vic after sunrise is caused by frigid air moving over the comparatively warm ocean, creating cumulus cloud cells with clear patches of sky in between. Rapid clearing pattern with frosty nights to follow As stated earlier this week, this always appeared likely to be a cold but relatively short-lived system. While frequent rain or snow showers will persist until Wednesday evening in Tasmania, southern Victoria and SA, and the high country of Vic, NSW and the ACT, the atmosphere will dry rapidly by Thursday. While the Victorian coastline and parts of Tasmania will see showers through the midweek period, a spell of clear, chilly weather will set in for several days across much of the southeast, with minimums set to plummet to potentially the coldest levels many locations have seen this year. For example, the mercury at Thredbo Top Station is expected to dip to -9°C on Thursday morning. The coldest thus far in the 2026 winter was -7.1°C on June 27. Due to a shower or two persisting along the Victorian coastline, Melbourne won’t see its coldest mornings this week until Friday or Saturday, with frost possible in inland suburbs on both mornings. Day of the season at the snow resorts Image: The elevation and locations where at least some snowfalls are possible across the SE Australia alpine region on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. With snowfalls likely to continue into Wednesday afternoon, Thursday should be a cracker at the mainland ski resorts. The combination of sunshine with a coating of soft, dry snow should make for perfect surface conditions even though the overall snowpack is still relatively thin for this time of year. This is not the major snowfall event that snow enthusiasts and ski industry businesses were hoping for, but it has definitely made a difference. And the further good news is that the coming clear, cold nights should be perfect for snowmaking to augment the natural cover. READ MORE: Snowmaking begins in Australia: but how does it work? There are also early signs of a system of similar or slightly lesser intensity which could arrive around the same time next week. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.