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A gusty southerly wind is bringing showers to Tas, southern Vic and coastal NSW in the wake of a cold front entering northeast NSW. An unstable airmass with a surface trough through central WA is generating showers and storms. Onshore winds are bringing showers to far north Qld.
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Today, 4:53AM UTC
Where have all the Atlantic hurricanes gone?
The Atlantic basin is experiencing a prolonged lull of hurricane activity that has not been seen for 85 years. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from the start of June to the end of November. During this six-month period, there are an average of seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin – a region which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Despite just passing the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season – September 10 – there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin so far this season. This is now the longest a season has gone in the satellite era (since 1966) with zero hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. When including observations prior to the satellite era, this is now the longest a season has gone without a hurricane since 1941. However, data from the pre-satellite era is less reliable due to sparser observing techniques. Why has this season been so quiet? Hurricanes require three main ingredients to form: Warm sea surface temperatures Atmospheric moisture Low vertical wind shear (meaning wind speed and direction doesn't change too much with height) There is plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture over the Atlantic basin this season. However, wind shear has been stronger than usual, which has helped suppress hurricane development so far. One of the factors contributing to the increased wind shear this season is El Niño in the tropical Pacific. El Niño events cause disruptions in the atmosphere that extend across to the Atlantic basin. By increasing wind shear over the Atlantic, El Niño makes it harder for thunderstorms to grow into hurricanes over the tropical Atlantic. According to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist who specialises in Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts, there has been record levels of vertical wind shear in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin over the past 30 days. The MDR is the tropical Atlantic area between West Africa and the Caribbean where most Atlantic hurricanes form. Image: Satellite image showing the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, September 14, 2026. Source: CIRA / RAMMB. Will there be any hurricanes this season? It’s too early to rule out any hurricane activity this season, particularly considering we are so close to the climatological peak of the season and there is still plenty of warm water to fuel the development of tropical storms. However, wind shear is likely to remain a problem for hurricane development while El Niño continues to gain strength in the Pacific Ocean. According to the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the influence of El Niño on Atlantic hurricanes is usually most pronounced between September and November. This creates a contrast of influences – elevated wind shear will continue to hinder hurricane development while warm seas will provide fuel if any tropical systems do manage to spin up. No season inside the satellite era has even gone from start to finish without a single hurricane in the Atlantic basin. It’s also important to point out that even a quiet season can still produce damaging late-season hurricanes. You can track the latest tropical weather in the Atlantic basin by visiting the U.S. National Hurricane Center website.
Today, 1:13AM UTC
Heavy snowfalls in Tasmania as cold front bites
Temperatures are dropping rapidly as a cold front surges across southeastern Australia, with the coldest air enveloping Tasmania and leaving our southernmost state with a heavy coating of snow to low levels this Tuesday. This was the scene at the Mt Mawson public shelter, about two hours northwest of Hobart just before 10 am this Tuesday. Image: The Mt Mawson public shelter on Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Source: Mt Mawson. The shelter, located at the bottom of the Mt Mawson club-run (non-commercial) ski area, is situated at just under 1200 metres above sea level. Often, that's around the low extent of the snowline during a spring snowfall, but snow is forecast to fall as low as 300 metres in Tasmania today. Temperature observations illustrating how cold it this Tuesday Image: 850 hPa temperatures and mean sea level pressure for Australia at 10 am (AEST) on Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The image above shows the cold air mass pushing northwards across Tasmania and the southeastern tip of the mainland as air circulates around the high pressure system located over the Great Australian Bight. At 10:30 am (AEST), the coldest observed temperatures in three states included: Tas -1.2°C (with an apparent or "feels like" temperature of -13.3°C) at kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart Vic 2.1°C (with an apparent or "feels like" temperature of -5.7°C) at Mt William, the 1167m highest point of The Grampians in western Victoria's Wimmera region NSW 4.6°C (with an apparent or "feels like" temperature of -5.4°C) at Thredbo Top Station It's worth noting that the coldest air had not yet progressed to the mainland high country by Tuesday mid-morning, which is why Victoria's coldest reading at 10:30 am was at Mt William in the state's west, while Australia's highest weather station near the top of the Thredbo ski slopes was still several degrees above zero. But the cold air is progressing north, albeit with limited moisture, which is why mainland snowfalls will be much lighter today than down south in Tasmania. Why is it so cold in Tasmania and the southern mainland this Tuesday? Image: Combined satellite and radar loop for southeastern Australia for the four hours until 10:30 am (AEST) on Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The loop above shows a polar air mass starting to cross the southeast on Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the moisture (the green blobs) lashing western and central Tasmania. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino has previously explained, the classic speckled cloud pattern develops when cold polar air moves over a relatively warm body of water, creating atmospheric instability that generates a field of individual cumulus cloud cells separated by clear patches of sky. Multiple wind warnings issued on Tuesday As mentioned in our Monday story, strong winds are accompanying this icy blast, and while many of the strongest readings occurred during the northwesterlies that preceded the polar air mass, gusts again topped 100 km/h today at Maatsuyker Island on Tasmania's southwest tip. Numerous strong wind warnings are in place, especially for coastal areas of Tasmania, Victoria and southern New South Wales, so please check the latest on the Weatherzone warnings page.
14 Sep 2026, 3:03AM UTC
Icy, gusty cold front to whip through southeastern Australia
A brief return to chilly weather is on its way to southeastern Australia, with Tasmania and parts of the mainland in line for a wild, windy, very wintry Tuesday. We wrote last week about the spring temperature "see-saw", and the temperature contrasts will be stark in the first few days of this week across Australia's most populated corner. Melbourne's maximum will drop from around 19°C this Monday to around 14°C on Tuesday and just 13°C on Wednesday. The average September maximum is 17.3°C. Hobart's maximum should reach around 21°C this Monday but peak only around 13°C on Tuesday. The average September maximum is 15.2°C Sydney's maximum will drop from around 26°C this Monday to around 18°C on Wednesday. The average September maximum is 20.2°C. Canberra is set for a mild 21°C this Monday but by Wednesday the mercury should only peak around 13°C, followed by a frosty start to Thursday. The national capital's average September maximum is 17.9°C. Light showers and mountain snowfalls on the southern mainland Image: A classic speckled cloud pattern over the Great Australian Bight associated with a polar air mass at midday (AEST) on Monday, September 14, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. This will not be a particularly wet system for the mainland, with only a few showers likely in southern Victoria, with light snowfalls in the high country of Vic and southern NSW. Tuesday's snow level of 800 metres above sea level for this region emphasises how chilly the coming air mass will be. Unfortunately, any snowfalls won't mean much for the ski resorts, as only Perisher in NSW remains open. Widespread Tasmanian rain and showers with snow to low levels For Tasmania, it's a different story with showers extending across much of the state on Tuesday, heaviest on the west coast. The BoM has forecast a Tuesday snow level of just 300 metres across parts of the state. This would be a very low level for midwinter and is as low as any Tasmanian snow level forecast to date in 2026. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall totals to 10 am (AEST) on Thursday, September 17, 2026, for SE Australia, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Windy weather to spread up east coast After the cold front crosses Tasmania and the southeast tip of the mainland, it will push northwards over the Tasman Sea, with powerful winds lashing the coast and adjacent areas. Numerous wind warnings are already in place across the southeast as gusty northwesterlies ahead of the cold front increase in intensity this Monday, while multiple coastal wind warnings for gales and strong winds have also been issued for Tuesday, with more likely to follow. A gust of 104 km/h was recorded at Australia's highest weather station, Thredbo Top Station, just before 5 am this morning, while the notoriously windy Maatsuyker Island on Tasmania's southwest tip recorded a gust of 109 km/h just after midday on Monday. Please check the Weatherzone warnings page for all the latest severe weather warnings.