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A cloudband is bringing rain and storms to southwest Qld, NSW, Vic and Tas. Onshore winds driven by a high is bringing showers to eastern Qld, heaviest over southeast Qld. Troughs are bringing some showers and storms to WA's southwest and eastern interior.
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Today, 1:41AM UTC
Vast cloudband producing showers from Queensland to Tasmania
Showers are soaking large parts of eastern Australia on this unseasonably warm winter Wednesday, as a cloudband stretching from Queensland to well south of Tasmania crosses the continent. In the 24 hours to 9am, handy rainfall totals were recorded in parts of Queensland where you wouldn’t normally expect more than a few drops in June – including 42 mm at Congie, a weather station in far southwest Queensland’s Channel Country near the town of Quilpie, which received 27mm. There were also numerous readings between about 10 mm and 30 mm in southern NSW and northern Victoria. Image: Combined satellite and radar loop for the four hours to 11:30am (AEST) on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Unwelcome rain in the snowfields The highest 24-hour totals in the NSW/Vic border region were 33.6mm at Thredbo (NSW) and 41.2 mm at Mt Hotham (Vic). Both of these weather stations are within their respective ski resort boundaries, and unfortunately, the precipitation was rain, not snow, with this week’s unusually mild June conditions. After up to 20 centimetres of snow fell last week, Australia’s mainland ski resorts will now have to pretty much start again with their natural snow base. The photo below shows the Merritts area of Thredbo on Monday afternoon. Image: The Merritts area at Thredbo on Monday, June 8. Source: ski.com.au. The next image shows the same scene on Wednesday morning, with notable snow loss. Expect further erosion of the white areas throughout this week. Image: The Merritts area at Thredbo on the morning of Wednesday, June 10, 2026 after heavy overnight rain. Source: ski.com.au. Mild temperatures across a wide area It’s not just wet out there, but decidedly un-wintry. Here are just three examples of Wednesday’s unseasonably mild temperatures: It was a mild night in Melbourne, where the minimum of 13°C was a full six degrees above the June average. The mercury in Hobart had already climbed to 17.4°C at 11 am this Wednesday, on its way to a forecast top of 18°C. Hobart’s average June maximum is 12.1°C but the four days from Saturday to Tuesday peaked at 15°C, 18.1°C, 17.1°C and 16.9°C respectively. At 7am, it was 4.2°C at Thredbo Top Station, which is Australia’s highest weather station. Given that the average June maximum is 1.8°C, it was an exceptionally warm start to the day. Having said that, winds are gusting to 115 km/h this morning, making for "feels like" temperatures well below -10°C. Why such mild midweek temperatures in southeastern Australia? As mentioned in our story on Tuesday, a slow-moving high pressure centred over the Tasman Sea is shunting cold fronts south of Australia, preventing influxes of cooler air while dragging mild air from the continent’s interior southwards. This pattern will continue for at least the next few days, with a fresh band of rain and showers associated with a relatively weak cold front expected to arrive over the weekend. Image: Forecast precipitable water and mean sea level pressure for 4pm on Saturday, June 13, 2026, according to the ECMWF model.
09 Jun 2026, 11:34PM UTC
Key ocean index hits Australian El Niño threshold
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have just passed Australia’s threshold for El Niño. Meteorologists monitor a range of oceanic and atmospheric indices when tracking the development of El Niño. One of the main indices used to monitor El Niño is the Niño3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when the Niño3.4 index is positive and above a defined threshold for several months in a row. Image: The Niño3.4 and Niño3 monitoring regions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Source: Weatherzone. Relative Niño Index Several major meteorological agencies, including Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, have recently adopted a modernised version of the Niño3.4 index – called the relative Niño index – which aims to remove the background warming signal caused by climate change. This new method provides a clearer picture of the status of El Niño and La Niña as the Pacific Ocean gradually becomes warmer. Without the relative index, El Niño events would appear to be happening more frequently, and La Niña would seem less common. El Niño threshold reached There is no internationally agreed threshold for El Niño. The United States Climate Prediction Center uses a relative Niño3.4 threshold of +0.5°C, while Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology uses a higher threshold of +0.8°C. In both cases, these warm anomalies must be sustained for several consecutive months to be classified as a proper El Niño. The relative Niño3.4 index has been rapidly warming over the past few months, increasing by 1.2°C in just the last 10 weeks. The latest weekly relative Niño3.4 value of +0.81°C was the first time the index has exceeded Australia's El Niño threshold of +0.8°C since April 2024, at the tail end of the 2023-24 El Niño event. Image: Weekly relative Niño3.4 index values since 2020, showing the index rising above Australia’s El Niño threshold this week. Source: Weatherzone. The tropical Pacific Ocean will need to remain sufficiently warmer than average for a sustained period to be classified as an El Niño event. This looks likely to happen, thanks to a large slab of abnormally warm water currently lurking beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, which will reinforce the warm surface water in the months ahead. Computer models suggest that this El Niño signal is likely to strengthen further in the coming months and could persist through winter and spring in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to the recent ocean warmth, there are also signs that the atmosphere has started responding to the warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These early signs of ocean-atmosphere coupling are a clear sign that El Niño is getting underway.
09 Jun 2026, 2:56AM UTC
Rare 20°C June forecast for Melbourne in unusually warm SE Australia winter spell
A warm week by winter standards is in store for the most populated corner of the country, with maximum temperatures trending around two to five degrees above the June average in the southeastern capitals, and most places in between. Why are temperatures so mild this week? A slow-moving high pressure system is centred over the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, and will be more or less parked there for the remainder of the working week. While a cold front is lashing the southwest of Western Australia this Tuesday, the Tasman high is forcing cold fronts down into the Great Australian Bight and further south, steering them away from southeastern Australia. Image: Synoptic chart for Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Burst of cool air for southwest Western Australia It's actually a bitterly cold winter morning in large parts of southern WA today. For example, the apparent or "feels like" temperature was just 1.7°C at 9 am (AWST) at Esperance Airport in the state's South East Coastal forecast district. Meanwhile Perth is heading for an expected high of just 17°C this Tuesday. Of the capitals, only Canberra (15°C) is forecast to be cooler. But even Canberra could hit the high teens later this week. Let’s switch from west to east and see what to expect in the southeastern capital cities this week. Adelaide The mercury should reach around 20°C in Adelaide this Tuesday. Maximums should then dip slightly into the high teens on Wednesday and Thursday before another warm surge brings a top as high as 23°C on Friday. Adelaide’s average June maximum is 15.8°C. Melbourne It’s not often that Melbourne sees a 20-degree day in June. While there was one in both 2023 (20.1°C on June 5) and 2025 (20.4°C on June 2), you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find the previous one. But 20 degrees is on the cards for Friday after a run of unseasonably mild maximums in the high teens midweek – even though gusty winds at times will make things feel much cooler than the still-air temperature. Melbourne’s average June maximum is 14.1°C. Image: Daily forecast for Melbourne, Vic, on the Weatherzone app. Hobart Unlike Melbourne and Adelaide where the week’s temperature spike should occur on Friday, Wednesday looks like being Hobart’s warmest day, with a top of 18°C. The average June maximum is just 12.1°C, and no day this week is expected to peak lower than 15°C. Canberra After a string of frosty mornings over the long weekend (the lowest was -2.4°C on Monday morning), Canberra minimums won’t come close to freezing from Wednesday through the rest of the week. Maximums will range from around 15°C to 17°C all week. The average June maximum in the national capital is 13.2°C. Sydney Sydney had already hit 20.2°C by midday this Tuesday, and maximums should reach the low 20s all week. Sydney’s average June maximum is 17°C. And since we’ve mentioned six of Australia’s eight capital cities so far, we shouldn’t forget Brisbane and Darwin, both of which can expect maximum temperatures only a degree or so above the monthly average for June all week.