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A deep low near SW WA is bringing showers, a few storms and very gusty winds to WA's west and southwest. A low near Tas is directing showers and gusty winds over the country's southeast. High pressure over the interior and across the north is maintaining clear and dry conditions.
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30 May 2026, 11:20PM UTC
Bombing low hammers southwest WA as fierce winds worsen
A bombing low southwest of WA is now impacting broad areas of the state’s southwest, with conditions expected to worsen through Sunday. Severe weather warnings are current across southwest WA during Sunday for damaging to locally destructive winds, while coastal hazard warnings are in place for abnormally high tides and damaging surf along parts of the WA coast. Locally destructive gusts in excess of 125 km/h are possible southwest of a line from Lancelin to Albany, including Perth, during Sunday. As we wrote yesterday, this system has undergone explosive cyclogenesis, with models showing the low’s central pressure falling by an average of about 25 hPa in the 24 hours from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. This is well above the roughly 16 to 17 hPa threshold needed for a bombing low near 35–37°S. The system has several powerful ingredients, including an intense upper level jet, abnormally warm waters off parts of WA and a cold pool aloft helping create a sharp temperature contrast. Image. 6-hour Himawari visible satellite loop showing the bombing low spinning southwest of WA. Heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and significant winds are expected to continue across the southwest, including Perth, with conditions likely to worsen this afternoon and evening as the low and its associated cold front move through. Damaging surf may also cause coastal erosion and localised damage along exposed parts of the WA coast. The strongest WA wind gusts observed in the supplied data up to about 6am WST Sunday include: Cape Leeuwin: 117 km/h at 5:40am WST; Cape Naturaliste: 104 km/h at 6:00am WST; Busselton Jetty: 98 km/h at 3:04am WST; Garden Island HSF: 89 km/h at 6:00am WST; North Island: 87 km/h at 4:12am WST; Mandurah: 85 km/h at 5:30am WST; Swanbourne: 85 km/h at 2:08am WST; Dwellingup: 85 km/h at 9:30pm WST Saturday; Geraldton Airport: 83 km/h at 5:19am WST; Gooseberry Hill: 82 km/h at 1:07am WST. Rain has also been significant, with widespread falls of about 15 to 50 mm and locally higher totals in parts of WA since 9am Saturday to early Sunday morning. Notable rainfall totals since 9am Saturday include: Busselton Airport: 50.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 8 years; Manjimup: 43.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 21 years; North Island: 31.2 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 25 years; Bridgetown: 27.0 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 6 years; Geraldton Airport: 26.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 5 years; Cunderdin Airport: 23.4 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 27 years. Intense bursts of rain have also been recorded, with 10-minute rainfall data showing the following WA rates: Perth / Perth Stadium: 7.0 mm in 10 minutes at 12:50am WST Sunday; Perth / Perth Stadium: 12.0 mm in 10 minutes at 1:00am WST Sunday; Busselton: 6.2 mm in 10 minutes at 9:50pm WST Saturday; Busselton: 6.0 mm in 10 minutes at 10:20pm WST Saturday; Busselton: 5.2 mm in 10 minutes at 10:00pm WST Saturday. Manjimup Shire: 5.6 mm in 10 minutes at 11:30pm WST Saturday; The low should move away from WA during Monday, with the last of the strong winds likely affecting the southern coast. After that, the system will march east and bring a spell of wintry weather to SA, Vic, Tas and NSW through the late this week, including strong to damaging winds, heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and alpine snow. Please stay up to date with the latest warnings as this system continues to unfold.
30 May 2026, 4:18AM UTC
A "bombing low" is brewing off WA. Here’s what makes it dangerous
Explosive cyclogenesis is underway over the eastern Indian Ocean, where a rapidly deepening low pressure system is setting parts of southwest Western Australia up for a wild weekend of damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms and dangerous seas. Models show the low’s central pressure plunging by an average of about 25 hPa in 24 hours, a dramatic pressure fall that can turn an ordinary low into a powerful “bombing low”. A low becomes a “bombing low” through a process called explosive cyclogenesis, when its central pressure falls unusually quickly in 24 hours. This rapid pressure drop usually happens when powerful atmospheric ingredients line up. On Sunday morning, model guidance shows an intense jet stream, roughly 9 to 10 km above the ground, with winds near 300-310 km/h over southwest WA (image 1). That is an exceptionally strong upper-level jet, well above the 180 km/h benchmark that EUMeTrain cites as being associated with developing explosive cyclogenesis, based on Lim and Simmonds (2002). This powerful jet helps air evacuate from above the low, allowing surface pressure to fall more rapidly. Image 1. ECMWF HRES 300 hPa jet stream (roughly 9-10kms above the ground) forecast for Sunday morning, showing an intense upper-level jet over southwest WA with winds near 300-310 km/h. Abnormally warm waters off parts of the WA coast are also feeding moisture and energy into the system (image 2), while a pool of cold air or cut off low in the upper atmosphere is helping create a sharp contrast between warm, moisture laden air below and much colder air above (image 3). Image 2. Daily sea surface temperature anomaly analysis for Thu 28 May 2026, showing warmer-than-average waters off parts of the WA coast, including anomalies of around +1 to +2°C in areas west and southwest of the state. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image 3. ECMWF HRES 500 hPa temperature and geopotential height forecast for Sunday morning, showing a pool of colder air about 5 to 6 km above the ground west of southwest WA. That contrast makes the atmosphere more unstable and helps the low deepen rapidly. As the pressure falls, surrounding air rushes in more aggressively, isobars tighten, and winds ramp up quickly (image 4). Image 4. ACCESS-G3 wind gust forecast for Sunday afternoon. To classify explosive cyclogenesis, meteorologists look at how much the central pressure falls in 24 hours, but they do not use the same pressure-drop threshold everywhere on Earth. The threshold changes with latitude because the Earth’s rotation affects how air moves around low pressure systems. At higher latitudes, the rotational effect is stronger, so the pressure fall needs to be larger. At lower latitudes, that rotational effect is weaker, so a smaller pressure fall can still be enough to show that a low is intensifying explosively. According to Lim and Simmonds (2002), this latitude-adjusted threshold is about 12 hPa in 24 hours at 25S and 18 hPa in 24 hours at 40S. This low is expected to move between roughly 35S and 37S during the next 24 hours, placing its threshold near 16 to 17 hPa in 24 hours. With models showing an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours, as shown in the graph below, this low is expected to deepen well beyond the explosive cyclogenesis threshold. Image 5. Modelled 24-hour central pressure fall for the developing low. Models show an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours. For southwest WA, this means a rapidly worsening spell of weather through the weekend, with damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms, large surf and hazardous marine conditions likely before the low shifts away early next week. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid exposed beaches and coastal roads, never drive through floodwater, and keep up to date with the latest warnings.
29 May 2026, 5:54AM UTC
Extremely windy weekend ahead for southwest WA
Damaging winds are likely for Perth and parts of southwest Western Australia, especially near the coast, as a cold front roars in later this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see frequent showers, with comparatively calm conditions on Saturday morning before winds pick up in the afternoon. The strongest winds will rip through the southwest on Sunday as a cold front crosses the coastline, with gusts possibly reaching 100-120 km/h in the Perth CBD and potentially exceeding 140 km/h in exposed coastal areas. Image: Synoptic chart for Sunday, May 31, 2026, showing the low pressure system and associated cold front approaching southwest WA with isobars packed closely together (indicating strong winds) over a relatively widespread area around the low. Source: Weatherzone. Why will it be so windy this weekend? A complex low pressure system will push past the southwest tip of WA on the weekend, and an associated cold front will surge across the South West Land Division, followed by a powerful burst of westerly winds which will peak on Sunday. "Even though we see cold fronts at this time of year, this is a strong system for late autumn or early winter," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains. "The isobars are not just packed tight around the low, but all the way up the west coast as far as southern parts of the Gascoyne forecast district. "The low is quite large in size and there’s a really strong pressure gradient as the low presses against the ridge of high pressure." As of Friday afternoon, the only current wind warning in Western Australia is a strong wind warning up until midnight on Saturday for the following coastal areas: Perth Local Waters, Gascoyne Coast, Geraldton Coast, Lancelin Coast, Perth Coast, Bunbury Geographe Coast, Leeuwin Coast, Albany Coast and Esperance Coast. Further warnings are likely to be issued by the BoM, including for some inland areas. Please check all the latest updates on the Weatherzone warnings page. How cold and wet will it be? Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation in southwest WA to next Thursday, June 4, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Despite the likelihood of grey skies and intermittent downpours on both Saturday and Sunday, neither day will be particularly cold in Perth, with forecast maximums of 22°C and 21°C respectively. Because of the strong winds, it will still be wise to rug up if you're attending the West Coast Eagles vs Essendon AFL match at Perth's Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. In the cooler, unstable airmass behind the cold front, showery weather will persist into the neew week, with top temperatures in the high teens (close to the June average of 18.5°C) expected for the first few days of winter, which begins on Monday.