Australian Weather

26 Jul 2026, 3:50AM UTC

Residents across northeast NSW and southeast Queensland could certainly be forgiven for reaching for an extra blanket over Friday and Saturday night — and for electing to stay a little longer in bed the following mornings. It was especially cold across elevated inland areas of northeast NSW, where temperatures plummeted well below zero on both nights. Image: Saturday (25th July) morning 6:00am temperatures. Source: DTN/Weatherzone. The coldest minimum across the country on Saturday morning was -9.1 degrees C at Glenn Innes. Other cold centres in NSW and Queensland are presented in the table below. Table: Minimum temperatures observed Saturday 25th July 2026. It was very cold over inland northeast NSW(Glen Innes) It was another cold Saturday night and early Sunday morning across northeast NSW and inland southeast Queensland as the mercury again fell below zero. Image: Sunday (26thJuly) morning 6:00am temperatures. Source: DTN/Weatherzone Glenn Innes was once again the coldest centre this morning (Sunday 26th) dropping down to -5.8°C. While it was a slightly colder morning across inland southeast Queensland as Oakey dropped to -5.4°C this morning compared to -3.6°C Saturday morning. The minimum temperature for other locations across northeast NSW and southeast Queensland for this morning is listed in the table below. Table: Minimum temperatures observed Sunday 26th July 2026.  Why have the mornings been so cold this weekend? Late last week, a cold front passed over southeast Australia. In its wake, a cold airmass advanced northward in southwesterlies across eastern NSW, eventually reaching southeast Queensland by the weekend. A key feature of this airmass was its low moisture content, which suppressed cloud formation over northeast NSW and southeast Queensland during Friday and Saturday — and more importantly, overnight — resulting in clear, starry skies. Adding to this, rising surface high pressure and a developing high-pressure ridge across inland NSW stabilised the airmass and brought light to calm winds overnight. The result: clear overnight skies and an efficient transfer of surface heat to outer space, driving those cold morning temperatures. The images below highlight the expansive area of dry air (low dew point temperatures) and the absence of cloud cover over inland regions of northeast NSW and southeast Queensland during the early mornings of Saturday and Sunday. A quick note on dew point temperature — it is a direct measure of the moisture content present in the atmosphere. A lower dew point indicates a drier airmass; conversely, a higher dew point means greater moisture content and that sticky, humid feeling familiar to anyone who has spent time in the tropics. Image: Dew point temperature (moist air [aqua] scaling to drier air [deep orange]), mean sea level pressure (black lines) and cloud cover (light grey) at 6am on Saturday 25th July (left) and Sunday 26th July (right). Source: DTN/Weatherzone. A temporary reprieve from the cold mornings is expected early in the week, as showers across the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands districts of NSW and Queensland's South Coast district bring increased cloud cover and atmospheric moisture to the region. The relief will be short-lived, however — a cold front moving across southeast Australia mid-week is expected to usher in another round of cold, frosty mornings across northeast NSW and southeast Queensland by week's end and into the following weekend. Town forecasts for the next 10 days are available on the Weatherzone website (https://www.weatherzone.com.au). For those living inland across northeast NSW and southeast Queensland, it's not time to pack the extra blankets away just yet — cold, wintry nights remain on the forecast. The good news is that clear skies and sunny days are expected to dominate throughout the coming week.

25 Jul 2026, 4:35AM UTC

Ocean Temperatures and the Developing El Niño Event As ocean temperatures continue to warm through early 2026 across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, climate forecasters are calling this the start of what may be one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades. The following will examine two previous "very strong" El Niño events and some of the similarities with the currently developing El Niño event over the Pacific Ocean. What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and an El Niño Event? ENSO is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon that describes the variation in surface winds and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean. There is a well-established connection between heat energy stored in the ocean and wind stresses in the lower atmosphere. The ENSO cycle has three phases: Neutral La Niña El Niño In a Neutral ENSO phase, near normal SSTs see cool waters over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (and along the northwest coast of South America) and warmer waters over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (north and northeast of Australia) drive trade winds from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Rising, moist air north of Australia leads to seasonal high rainfall, whereas descending air over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean results in drier conditions. Image: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral Phase.  Source: Bureau of Meteorology During a La Niña, decreased SSTs across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, combined with increased SSTs over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, result in stronger trade winds blowing from the east across the tropical region. This leads to increased rainfall over the western Pacific and, in many cases, the northern and eastern regions of Australia during the spring and summer seasons.   Image: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Nina Phase.  Source: Bureau of Meteorology The El Nino phase. During this phase, warmer ocean waters — both at the surface and at depth — accumulate over the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, while SSTs over the western tropical Pacific are relatively cooler than normal. Easterly trade winds weaken and, in strong El Niño events, can reverse direction, blowing from the west across the western tropical region. Heavier monsoon rainfall, which normally occurs over the western tropics, is suppressed by cooler SSTs and a broad region of background descending air. In contrast, warm, moist air rising over the central and eastern tropical Pacific brings enhanced rainfall and potentially heavy precipitation extending as far east as the west coast of South America.   Image: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Nino Phase.  Source: Bureau of Meteorology When analysing SSTs across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forecasters examine four defined monitoring regions: Niño 1, Niño 2, Niño 3, and Niño 4. An additional region, Niño 3.4, is a hybrid zone that overlaps the eastern portion of the Niño 4 region and the western portion of the Niño 3 region. The Niño 3.4 region is used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other international climate agencies as the benchmark region for classifying ENSO phases. What forecasters are observing during 2026 is increasing SSTs across the eastern and central Pacific Ocean — specifically within the Niño 1, 2, and 3 regions — which have now surpassed the threshold defining an El Niño event. So how does early 2026 compare with previous strong El Niño events? Analysis of SSTs, or more specifically, anomalous SSTs (warmer or cooler than normal), is just one aspect used to evaluate climate outlook forecasts. The following monthly anomalous SST charts show interesting similarities in the early stages of development between the 2026 event and the very strong El Niño events of 1997–98 and 2015–16. Below are global anomalous SST maps for the month of May during 2026, 2015, and 1997. The Niño 3.4 region is highlighted within the outlined rectangle. Above images: Sea surface temperature anomaly (°C) for May 2026 (top), May 2015 (middle), May 1997 (bottom). NINO 3.4 region is highlighted within the black rectangle. Ocean regions coloured as orange to dark brown represent regions of warmer than normal SSTs. Source: Climate Reanalyzer using the NOAA – Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset. Climate Reanalyzer In each event, SSTs near the Peruvian coast were significantly warmer than normal, with the warmer pool of ocean surface waters extending westward into the central Pacific. What followed during the remaining months of 1997 and 2015 was significant warming of ocean waters across the eastern and central tropical Pacific, resulting in very strong El Niño events. Anomalous SSTs — averaged over three months — within the Niño 3.4 region peaked at 2.40°C above normal during October–November–December 1997, and at 2.75°C above normal during November–December 2015 to January 2016. Rainfall across many areas of central and eastern Australia was below average from June through November during both 1997 and 2015, with 2015 proving to be a particularly dry year. Above images: Rain deciles measured across the six-month period from June to November for 1997 (top) and 2015 (bottom). Below-average rainfall is represented on the red scale and above-average rainfall on the blue scale. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Australian rainfall deciles since 1900 For this current event, the Bureau of Meteorology has declared an El Nino event is underway and are forecasting further warming of tropical waters across the Pacific Ocean through to Spring and what may be the strongest El Nino event since 1950. The rainfall outlook for August to October indicates a higher likelihood of below median rainfall across the eastern half of Australia. Image: Bureau of Meteorology Long-range rainfall outlook – for August to October.  Source: Rainfall – Chance of above median for August to October - Long-range forecasts You can find the latest rainfall outlooks across the Australian region at DTN/Weatherzone’s Climate Outlook (Climate Outlook - Australia).