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Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving south, causing winds to strengthen & rain & storms to increase in the NT's far north. Showers & storms are scattered across southern WA, western SA, Qld & NSW in troughs, some are intense. A front is bringing brisk winds & showers to Vic & Tas.
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Today, 12:02AM UTC
Fina could be Australia's first November category 3 cyclone in 20 years
Tropical Cyclone Fina is set to become the first category 3 cyclone in Australian waters in November since Cyclone Bertie-Alvin in 2005, and it could happen as early as Friday evening. While there have been six tropical cyclones to form in Australian waters during the month of November since Bertie-Alvin over the past two decades, none of them reached category 3 – the threshold at which a tropical cyclone becomes a "severe" tropical cyclone, with gusts between 165 and 224 km/h. What is Fina’s current strength and position? Fina weakened to a category 1 system on Thursday and became near-stationary around 100 km off the north coast of the Northern Territory overnight. Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino says that the atmosphere will become more favourable for the system to gain strength this Friday. This should allow Fina to regain a category 2 intensity once again. Image: Intense areas of rainfall on the radar associated with Cyclone Fina at 9:30am on Friday, November 21, 2025. How destructive are Fina's winds and where is it heading next? Fina is expected to pass over the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands (northeast of Darwin) on Friday night into Saturday morning, most likely as a category 2 system with gales and damaging wind gusts possibly reaching 125 to 164 km/h. The BoM’s 6:30am (ACST) bulletin on Friday also stated that: "There continues to remain a chance that it could reach category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf." The Van Diemen Gulf is an area of the Timor Sea, located between Darwin and the Tiwi Islands and Cobourg Peninsula to the city’s north and northeast respectively. Sea surface temperatures are at least 30°C in the gulf at present, which is warmer than normal for this time of year. Those warm waters will provide energy for Cyclone Fina’s intensification. Image: Sea surface temperatures in NT waters on November 19, 2025. Source: BoM. The BoM warns that destructive wind gusts up to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi (on the eastern side of the Cobourg Peninsula) later today as Fina nears the coast. The Tiwi Islands could see similar gusts early on Saturday. Will Fina reach Darwin, and if so, what might the impacts be? Tropical Cyclone Fina will pass near and possibly over Darwin on Saturday night into Sunday morning, and the BoM’s latest warnings say that destructive wind gusts up to 155km/h may develop over Darwin later on Saturday. Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is also possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Warruwi from Friday, extending to the coast and nearby inland across the western Top End including Darwin on Saturday. In terms of actual rainfall totals, Friday’s forecast has changed little from yesterday, with widespread 100 to 300 mm likely over the northwest Top End, including the Darwin region, and isolated totals around 500 mm. Image: The latest track map for Cyclone Fina, issued at 7:33am (ACST) on Friday, November 21, 2025. What will Fina do after it passes through or near Darwin? Once past Darwin, models suggest Fina will track over the southern Timor Sea and intensify on Sunday into Monday, possibly becoming a category 3 severe tropical cyclone (if it has not already reached that strength). Increasing wind shear from Monday should then weaken the system as it approaches the north Kimberley coast early next week. Our Darwin forecast page is here and the BoM's tropical cyclone page is here.
20 Nov 2025, 3:04AM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Fina to pass near Darwin this weekend – here's what to expect
Tropical Cyclone Fina has turned towards the NT coast and is expected to make landfall over the Top End on Friday. The system could then regain strength over the warm Van Diemen Gulf, before passing close to Darwin on the weekend. Where is Fina now? Fina is currently sitting off the north coast of the NT. At 9:30am ACST on Thursday, November 20, Tropical Cyclone Fina was a category two system located roughly 405 kilometres northeast of Darwin. Wind speeds near its core were averaging 95 km/h and gusting to about 130 km/h. While Fina had been moving towards the east on Wednesday, it took a right-hand turn overnight and has now started to move south, a track that will allow it to approach the NT’s Top End over the next 24 hours. Where will Fina make landfall? Fina is expected to pass over the Cobourg Peninsula and Croker Island as a category two tropical cyclone late on Friday, where it will cause heavy rain, damaging to destructive winds and abnormally high tides. Some of this severe weather will also extend to parts of the Tiwi Islands into Saturday morning. Tropical Cyclone Fina is likely to weaken as it crosses the Cobourg Peninsula on Friday night. However, it should re-intensify on Saturday as it moves over warm water in the Van Diemen Gulf. Fina is expected to be a category two tropical cyclone as it traverses the Van Diemen Gulf, although there is small chance it could reach category three strength on Saturday as it draws energy from the warm water in the Gulf. Image: Current satellite image and extended forecast track map for Tropical Cyclone Fina. Valid at 1:10pm AEDT (11:40am ACST) on Thursday, November 20. Source: Weatherzone. Will Fina hit Darwin? The current forecast track for Fina shows the system exiting the Van Diemen Gulf and moving through the Clarence Strait on Saturday afternoon, before passing north of Darwin on Saturday night. While the official forecast track keeps Fina more than 40km to the north of Darwin on Saturday night, some computer models suggest it could move closer to, or even directly over Darwin on the weekend. It is important to point out that there is notable disagreement between models regarding how close Fina will get to Darwin on the weekend. The two maps below show different predictions for Fina’s position on Saturday night. Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday afternoon. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast wind gusts from the ECMWF model showing the eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina directly over Darwin on Saturday night. This is not the official forecast track and should be treated with caution. Source: Weatherzone. Regardless of exactly how close Fina gets to Darwin, the city and surrounding areas are likely to be impacted by heavy rain and damaging winds on Saturday and Sunday. At this stage, the most intense weather in the Darwin region will occur between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. After passing Darwin, Fina is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction on Sunday and Monday. At this stage, it could approach the northern Kimberley coast for another landfall early next week, causing heavy rain, flooding and damaging to destructive winds. Rainfall totals from Fina are likely to reach about 100 to 300 mm across a broad area of the northwest Top End, with isolated falls reaching around 500 mm. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over the next 7 days, according to the ECMWF model. The darkest blue shading indicates rainfall more than 300mm is expected. Source: Weatherzone. Wind speeds will depend on the tropical cyclone’s strength over the coming days, with category two tropical cyclones typically causing gusts of 125 to 164 km/h. Category three tropical cyclones can cause wind gusts of about 165 to 224 km/h. Tropical cyclone warnings, marine wind warnings and flood watches have been issued for parts of the NT. Check the latest warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information on this system.
19 Nov 2025, 5:34AM UTC
Tropical cyclone north of Australia, polar airmass to the south
Australia is currently sandwiched between a tropical cyclone to the north and a strong polar airmass to the south, with dramatically different conditions in real time at opposite ends of the continent. While it’s obviously commonplace for Australia’s temperate and tropical regions to have vastly different weather systems concurrently, Wednesday’s satellite image illustrates the contrast in unusually dramatic fashion. Image: Unsurprisingly due to the two systems mentioned in this story, western Tasmania and waters north of Darwin were seeing some of the heaviest showers anywhere in Australia at 2:30pm (AEDT) on Wednesday. Up north: Tropical Cyclone Fina Over the warm waters of the Timor Sea, Tropical Cyclone Fina continues to gain strength. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explained earlier on Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Fina is a small system, with gale force winds only extending about 50 to 60 nautical miles (approx, 90-110 km) from its core. "Small tropical cyclones are able to fluctuate in strength more rapidly than larger systems, which means they can strengthen or weaken fairly quickly,” Domensino wrote. Fina is expected to become a Category 2 cyclone on Wednesday night and remain at that strength until it makes landfall on Friday and into the weekend over the Tiwi Islands – just north of Darwin – and then possibly the mainland. Down south: yet another strong spring cold front Tasmania and the high country of NSW and Victoria have seen light or even moderate snowfalls up to four times already this November, and Tasmania is set for another round beginning this Wednesday evening. The snow level could be as low as 600 metres in the state’s southwest by Thursday, with a snowline of 700 metres on the Central Plateau and on kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart. You can see the speckled cloud typical of airmasses with polar origins surging towards Tasmania and Victoria in the loop below. Image: Three-hour combined radar and satellite loop on Wednesday afternoon for SE Australia. The speckled pattern occurs when very cold air moves over a relatively warm area of ocean, causing a large number of individual cumulus clouds to develop over a broad area. Each of those cloud cells can produce rain, hail, snow and thunderstorms, with patches of clear sky in between, and the pattern they produce is in many ways as instantly recognisable as the swirling circular cloud mass of a tropical cyclone. Australia is currently in a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). When the SAM is negative, the dynamic cold weather systems that circulate the globe in the Southern Ocean tend to be pushed northwards towards Australia. READ MORE: Southern Annular Mode - What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? That’s what we’ve seen frequently this November, with average maximum temperatures in both Melbourne and Hobart trending well below the monthly average at this stage.