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Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of northeast NSW. Showers will continue for coastal areas of NSW. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over coastal areas of Qld, turning severe in places. A few storms in northern NT and WA. Showers in southwest WA.
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Today, 4:45AM UTC
Why was Hurricane Melissa so strong when it hit Jamaica?
Hurricane Melissa became the strongest hurricane on record to strike Jamaica when it made landfall as a ferocious category 5 system on Tuesday. Melissa crossed the Jamaican coast near New Hope on Tuesday, October 28, with a central pressure of around 892 hPa and one-minute sustained winds reaching 160 knots (around 296 km/h) near its core. Hurricane Melissa was one of the strongest systems ever recorded in the Atlantic. Based on preliminary central pressure estimates, Hurricane Melissa tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic region. These two systems are also tied as the third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, beaten only by Wilma (882 hpa in 2005) and Gilbert (888 hpa in 1988). Video: Hurricane Melissa approaching and making landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday, October 28, 2025. Source: CIRA The destruction caused by this powerful hurricane will be severe and long-lasting. On Tuesday night local time in Jamaica, there were reports of damage to hospitals, residential properties and other infrastructure including roads, while more than 500,000 residents were without power. It will take time for the full extent of the damage to be surveyed. Cuba, Bahamas next in line Hurricane Mellisa weakened as it passed over Jamaica’s mountainous terrain on Tuesday, emerging off the country’s north coast as a category four hurricane. The system is expected to intensify as it moves north towards Cuba, where it should make a second landfall late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Melissa should then track across the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday before moving quickly towards the northeast and passing near Bermuda late on Thursday. As of 0300 UTC on Wednesday (11pm Tuesday local time in Cuba), hurricane warnings from the US National Hurricane Center were in place for Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas, and the Southeastern and Central Bahamas. What made Melissa so strong? All hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons need the following key ingredients to intensify: Warm sea surface temperatures, which provide energy. Low vertical wind shear, meaning wind speed and direction don’t change much with height, to help keep the system symmetrical. Good outflow of air at the upper levels of the system, making space for more air to rise through the atmosphere as the system gains strength. Melissa encountered an ideal environment for cyclone intensification as it traversed the Caribbean Sea in the last few days. Wind shear was low, there was good outflow in the upper-levels and sea surface temperatures were close to 30°C, more than 1°C warmer than average for this time of year and well above the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. Image: Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea on October 27, 2025. Source: NOAA How does Melissa compare to Australia’s strongest tropical cyclones? The strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Australian region, based on central pressure, were Tropical Cyclone Gwenda in 1999 and Tropical Cyclone Inigo in 2003. These systems both had a central pressure of 900 hPa at their peak intensity. When Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica on Tuesday, it was more powerful that any tropical cyclone that has been recorded in the Australian region.
Today, 12:41AM UTC
Brisbane’s wettest day since Cyclone Alfred
Heavy rain has fallen across southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, with numerous locations receiving more than 100mm in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, most of which fell on Tuesday afternoon and evening. North of the Qld/NSW border, the highest fall was 129mm at Oyster Creek near Burleigh Heads on the southern part of the Gold Coast. South of the Qld/NSW border, 123mm was recorded at Goonengery, not far inland from Byron Bay. In Brisbane, the airport received 61mm while 53.8mm fell in the city. These were the heaviest daily falls at these sites in October for four and five years respectively, and also the highest falls at both locations since Cyclone Alfred drenched the city in March. Brisbane has had a topsy-turvy year for rainfall. The most notable feature on the graph below is obviously the massive rainfall spike caused by Cyclone Alfred. Image: Rainfall in Brisbane (sky blue) compared to the average (paler blue) in the 12 months since November 2024. After a relatively wet summer, Alfred delivered Brisbane’s wettest day in half a century, as well as the city’s wettest three-day spell on record (676.8mm). The damp autumn continued into April, before Brisbane dried out through the cooler months in the middle of year, as it typically does. In September, the rain gods could not spare even a millimetre of rain for Brisbane, with the city recording just 0.8mm – its driest September in 38 years. After a dry start to October with no rain over the first 12 days and just 10.8mm up to October 26, Brisbane's running total for October is now 99.2mm, which has exceeded the monthly average of 85.8mm at the current city site, which has been operational for 25 years. Image: Six-hour radar loop to midnight (AEST), showing steady precipitation associated with the second trough crossing southeast Qld and northeast NSW. What caused the heavy overnight rain? "The heavy rain was caused by two distinct trough lines, which produced around 30mm each,” Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard explains. "The first, around midday, was a weak coastal trough, and the second, around 9pm, was a trough pushing in from inland which tapped into some tropical moisture coming in all the way from the Top End." Skies have now cleared this Wednesday over Brisbane and most of the areas mentioned in this story, however wet weather will return soon, with a persistent onshore flow of northeasterly winds generating the potential for showers for much of the week. Our Brisbane forecast is here.
28 Oct 2025, 3:23AM UTC
Rain and thunderstorms hitting eastern Australia
Widespread rain and thunderstorm activity will affect Queensland and NSW over the next two days, with severe thunderstorms possible in both states. It has only been two days since a line of violent storms swept across Qld on Sunday, causing large hail, damaging winds and prolific lightning. This included 5 cm hail in some southern suburbs of Brisbane and a 109 km/h wind gust at Gayndah. Image: Composite satellite and radar showing a severe thunderstorm to the west of Brisbane on Sunday afternoon. The hook-shaped echo in the radar indicates that this was a rotating supercell thunderstorm. Sunday’s thunderstorms produced a huge amount of lightning over Qld, with 795,000 strikes detected within an 800 km radius of Emerald during the 24 hours ending at 6am on Monday. Around 77,000 of these strikes, or about 10%, occurred within 100 km of Brisbane. Image: Lightning in Brisbane on Sunday, October 26, 2025. This is likely a positive lightning strike, which is a rare type of lightning that originates from the top section of a thunderstorm cloud and extends to the ground. Positive lightning accounts for less than 5% of all strikes, and it is typically stronger than most other lightning strikes. Source: @withinblackandwhite / Instagram Looking ahead, rain and thunderstorms will persist over parts of Qld and NSW on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves over eastern Australia. Thunderstorms over the next two days are generally expected to be less intense than the supercells that hit parts of Qld on Sunday. However, severe thunderstorms are still possible in both states, particularly over northern NSW and central Qld on Tuesday, and central eastern Qld again on Wednesday. Rain will also be widespread across the two states, affecting both Brisbane and Sydney. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over Australia during Tuesday and Wednesday combined, showing widespread falls expected across eastern Australia. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain are a risk with severe thunderstorms that develop in the next couple of days. Be sure to check the latest warnings in your area for the most up to date information.