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Areas of low pressure across the tropics are generating showers and storms with heavy rainfall over northern Qld. Showers extend into the NT's east, inland WA, and western SA, while unstable winds are bringing showers and storms to northeast and central NSW.
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Today, 12:49AM UTC
The hidden danger of slow-moving thunderstorms
Large parts of Queensland and New South Wales face the risk of slow-moving thunderstorms over the next couple of days, with the potential for localised flash flooding in many areas. When we think of thunderstorms, we tend to think of them rushing rapidly across the landscape, either as individual cells or as part of a squall line. Such storms usually dissipate within an hour or less, and wild wind gusts are part of the package. Slow-moving thunderstorms pose a different kind of danger. While damaging winds can still occur in slow-moving storms, the biggest danger tends to be from prolonged bursts of intense rainfall, as storms effectively park themselves over a location for an extended period. That’s the risk for parts of NSW and Queensland this Friday and into the weekend. Why are the current storms so slow-moving? Image: Four-hour radar loop showing relatively slow-moving storms within a 1000km radius of Townsville, Qld, on the morning of February 20, 2026. In order for thunderstorms to form, you need three key elements: Low-level atmospheric moisture is one requirement. You also need instability (where a parcel of warm air rises through cooler air). Thirdly, you need a mechanism to lift air. Sometimes the trigger mechanism that forces air to rise is the strong wind associated with frontal systems. Sometimes it’s topography (like a mountain range which forces air to rise). And sometimes it’s a low pressure trough, where air that has flowed in from surrounding areas of higher-pressure areas is forced upward because it has nowhere else to go. Areas of low pressure with numerous near-stationary troughs are the dominant broad-scale weather features over Australia this Friday. With such a pattern, storms tend to be slow-moving due to a lack of strong steering winds. Heavy Qld rainfall totals under slow-moving storms In the 24 hous to 9am Friday, numerous Queensland locations saw more than 100mm of rainfall. They included: 142mm at Upper Finch Hatton Creek, just west of Mackay 135mm at Alligator Creek, 25km southeast of the Townsville CBD 112mm at Coolagh, near Longreach, a huge total for a location closer to the NT border than the east coast It’s also worth noting that accumulations of 40mm per hour were recorded in relatively slow-moving storms just west of Townsville, while Townsville itself saw more than 50mm in just two hours between 6:30am and 8:30am. That’s the sort of downpour which can cause localised flooding. Queensland is currently experiencing widespread riverine flooding in the state’s west, after recent heavy rainfall events. Numerous warnings are in place. For the latest thunderstorm information for your area, keep checking the Weatherzone warnings page, especially during the afternoon and evening.
19 Feb 2026, 6:32AM UTC
Queensland skies alive with lightning from outback to coast
Central parts of Queensland, from the Northern Territory border to the coastline, are experiencing a late afternoon sky show this Thursday, with storms and lightning strikes stretching across the state. At 3:48pm (AEST), the BoM issued a severe thunderstorm warning for heavy rainfall for parts of the Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, and Capricornia Forecast Districts. The BoM warned that slow-moving thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Moranbah, Eungella and Nebo. While the most severe late afternoon storms appear to be in eastern parts of the state, storms have been highly active out west too during Thursday. Image: Four-hour radar loop in central Qld on the afternoon of Thursday, February 19, 2026. You can see the storms developing in the radar loop above, which shows the period from 12:15pm to 4:15pm (AEST). The pink blobs indicate areas where lightning is present. One feature which is clearly visible on the radar loop is the storm that dumped 34mm of rain on Boulia, a tiny far western Qld town of 300 people about halfway between Mt Isa and Birdsville. That was more rain in a few hours than the town’s entire monthly average for February of 27.2mm. What’s causing the widespread storms? A persistent, near-stationary trough over central Queensland and the eastern NT is causing moist, warm air to rise into a relatively unstable layer of air, producing storms. While moisture is being provided by a consistent if relatively languid feed of tropical air from the east, the moist landscape is also playing its part, having been saturated in recent weeks. The image below shows rainfall totals across Australia over the past week. Image: Weekly rainfall totals for Australia for the week ending 9am this Thursday, February 19. Source: BoM. As you can see, most of Queensland has had a good recent soaking, including all of the areas where storms are forming this Thursday. Stormy days are set to persist into Friday and the weekend for much of Queensland.
19 Feb 2026, 2:24AM UTC
Outback deluge to cause flooding in SA, NT
Heavy rain will soak parts of central Australia from this weekend into next week, with potential for several hundred millimetres of rain and flooding in parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia. Copious tropical moisture interacting with a slow-moving low pressure system and associated low pressure troughs will cause rain and thunderstorms to spread over central Australia during the coming week. This inland soaking will be linked to ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity across northern Australia, which has also caused flooding in parts of Queensland and Western Australia. Image: Modelled precipitable water (atmospheric moisture content) and mean sea level pressure at 5pm AEDT on Sunday, February 22, showing tropical moisture spreading across northern and central Australia and a low pressure system over the country’s interior. Source: Weatherzone. Inland NT rain ramping up this weekend A low pressure system moving over the southern NT should cause rain to intensify over the territory’s inland from this Saturday, February 21. There is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest falls will occur, but at this stage the Barkly district and Simpson Desert look to be likely areas for heavy falls. However, some models push this weekend’s heaviest rain further north into the Carpentaria and Gregory districts. Heavy rain should then continue over parts of the NT’s inland into early next week, possibly extending south towards Alice Springs and Uluru. While computer model disagreement is making it hard to pinpoint where and how much rain will fall, there is potential for 100 to 200 mm of rain over a broad area of the NT’s inland from this weekend into next week, with isolated areas possibly exceeding 300 mm over several days. This much rain would cause widespread flooding and may cut off roads and railway lines. Rain spreading to SA Tropical moisture should drift south from the weekend and fuel rain and thunderstorms over parts of SA. Uncertainty around the rain in SA is currently high due to computer models struggling to agree on the position and strength of a low pressure trough next week. Despite this model disagreement, there is potential for heavy rain over parts of SA beginning on Sunday, February 23 and continuing into next week. The area currently most likely to see this heavy rain will be the state’s northern pastoral region, where the vast flat landscape will be prone to widespread flooding. Rainfall totals of 100 to 300 mm are possible over the north of SA between this Sunday and late next week. Some computer models suggest that heavy rain could fall directly over or to the south of Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre around Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This may cause rare inflows from the lake’s southern tributaries, with water usually entering the endorheic lake (a closed basin with no outflow) from the northeast. Model disagreement leading to high uncertainty While there are clear signs that heavy rain will fall over parts of the NT and SA during the coming week, computer models are not agreeing on the timing, location and intensity of rainfall. The three maps below show how much rain is being predicted over the next seven days from three separate computer models. These maps highlight the range of rainfall predictions for central Australia in the coming week. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11:00pm AEDT on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 5:00am AEDT on Thursday, February 26, 2026, according to the GFS model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11pm AEDT on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, according to the ACCESS-G model. Source: Weatherzone. This uncertainty may cause local rain forecasts to jump around from day-to-day as new and more reliable model data becomes available. Anyone in central Australia should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings over the coming week for the most up to date information. Also check road conditions and road closures before travelling.