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A tropical low north of the NT is driving showers and storms over the northern tropics. An unstable airmass brings showers and storms to western WA. Brisk westerly winds between cold fronts are bringing showers to Tas and southern Vic. Dry and hot elsewhere with high pressure.
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17 Nov 2025, 11:57PM UTC
Perth Ashes Test weather: slight chance of showers on first two days then mostly clear
The Ashes starts in Perth this Friday, November 21, with Australia hosting England for the first of five Tests at Optus Stadium in cricket’s oldest rivalry, with play starting at 10:20am AWST (1:20pm AEST). So what will the weather be like? The good news is that play should be possible for the vast majority of the five days, although there may be a few spots of rain on Friday and Saturday. Friday (Day 1): maximum 26°C. An extensive area of low pressure centred over the eastern part of Western Australia will generate instability with the chance of showers across much of southern WA. But Perth’s wettest weather tends to arrive via cold fronts from the southwest, so while Optus Stadium could potentially see a drop or two and even a brief thunderstorm in the afternoon, expect mostly clear skies. Saturday (Day 2): maximum 24°C. An injection of slightly cooler air will arrive with a few showers possible in the morning followed by a mostly clear afternoon. Sunday (Day 3): maximum 23°C. A drying trend sets in, with only a very slight chance of a light shower. Monday (Day 4): maximum 23°C. Relatively cool again and mostly sunny. Tuesday (Day 5): maximum 24°C. Another dry and relatively cool day for late November. Image: Daily Forecast on the Weatherzone app. So in summary, Perth will avoid any of the hot weather which was typical for Test cricket in the city back in the (relatively recent) days when Brisbane always had the first Test in November and the Perth Test was often played in the heat of December. Even last year when Australia hosted India at Optus Stadium in November, the mercury reached 36.7°C on Day 3 on November 24. There’s no chance of that kind of heat this year. For those who love statistics (yes YOU, cricket fans!), here are the Perth weather averages for November: Average maximum: 26.7°C Average minimum: 14.4°C Average rainfall: 24.2mm Monthly rain days: (0.2mm or more) 5.6 And here is the average rainfall in November for the Australian capital cities. As you can see, Perth is by far the driest. Darwin: 142.9mm (12.5 rain days) Brisbane: 100.1mm (11.0 rain days) Sydney: 84.2mm (11.7 rain days) Canberra: 75.6mm (9.1 rain days) Melbourne: 59.9mm (11.8 rain days) Hobart: 52.8mm (14.1 rain days) Adelaide: 31.1mm (7.9 rain days) Perth: 24.2mm (5.6 rain days)
17 Nov 2025, 2:27AM UTC
High tropical cyclone risk near Australia this week – rare November landfall possible
A tropical low currently developing over the Timor Sea has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone later this week, with a possibility of landfall somewhere in the NT or WA. The satellite images below show cloud circulating around the developing tropical low on Monday morning. Image: Visible satellite images showing a developing tropical low over the Timor Sea on Monday morning. This system has already caused heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western Top End in the last couple of days, including 228 mm in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin, which was its heaviest rain in a decade. The low pressure system is in an environment that should help it gain strength over the next few days, with plenty of warm sea surface temperatures to provide energy and favourable atmospheric conditions to facilitate its intensification. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives the system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Wednesday and a high risk from Friday. Image: Map showing a ‘high’ risk of a tropical cyclone near the NT’s Top End on Saturday, November 22, 2025. At this stage, the centre of the system is likely to be located somewhere inside the brow-shaded ellipsis at 11pm AEDT on Saturday. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While there is some uncertainty regarding the prospective tropical cyclone’s future path, most forecast models suggest that it will move towards the northeast between Monday and Wednesday while gaining strength. Some models predict that it will then turn back towards the south or southwest from Thursday or Friday, potentially approaching the coast of the Top End, Tiwi Islands or Kimberley towards the end of the week or early next week. At this early stage in the system’s development, it is difficult to predict exactly where it will move and how strong it will get. However, there is enough consensus between forecast models for residents in the Top End and Kimberley to pay close attention to the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories for the most up-to-date information over the coming week. Prepare now and make sure you have an emergency plan in place. Is this early in the season for a tropical cyclone? Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from November to April. However, we don’t usually see many tropical cyclones near the Australian coastline this early in the season. Only four tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Australian mainland in November: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2013) Severe Tropical Cyclone Quenton (1983) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ines (1973) Tropical Cyclone 01U, also called the ‘Broome Cyclone’ (1910) If this week’s system does become a tropical cyclone, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina.
17 Nov 2025, 12:30AM UTC
Extreme fire danger and snow on the same day in NSW
It's a day of dramatic weather contrasts this Monday for residents of Australia's most populous state, as a spring cold front sweeps northwards through New South Wales. Cool air arrived in the state’s south overnight with snow recorded in the Snowy Mountains for the fourth time this November. Image: The top of Thredbo on the evening of Sunday, November 16, 2025, with remnant snow patches from winter (previous November snowfalls have already melted). Source: Thredbo.com.au. Image: The top of Thredbo this Monday morning after the latest cold front, with fresh snow on the ground and snow sticking to the lens of the snow cam. Source: Thredbo.com.au. Ahead of the cold front, strong westerly winds gusted to as much as 96 km/h at Cabramurra in the Snowy Mountains (winds were likely even stronger at Thredbo Top Station, where the weather station was offline). Strong and gusty winds then pushed through to the east coast overnight, with gusts exceeding 70 km/h recorded in many forecast districts on Monday morning. While the airmass in the wake of the cold front is relatively mild, the combination of strong winds and dry air has resulted in high fire danger in most forecast districts, with an extreme rating issued for the Greater Hunter – even though no location in that particular region is expecting a Monday maximum beyond the mid-to-high 20s. Image: Fire danger in NSW on Monday, November 17, 2025, with extreme fire danger and a total fire ban for the Greater Hunter region around Newcastle. Source: NSW RFS. Normally, we associate days of extreme fire danger (or the highest rating of catastrophic) with temperatures soaring into the mid-to-high 30s or even the 40s, but days like today can be just as dangerous for grassfires and bushfires without the extreme heat. Meanwhile the Southern Hemisphere remains in a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which means the dynamic cold weather systems that circulate the globe in the Southern Ocean tend to be pushed northwards towards Australia. READ MORE: Southern Annular Mode - What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? This does not mean that southern Australia will automatically keep receiving unseasonably cool weather, but it does increase the likelihood, as we have seen in recent weeks. Due to the frequent unseasonable cold fronts this November, Melbourne’s running monthly maximum temperature is about 2°C down on its long-term average, with November 8 being the city’s coldest November day in 80 years, when the mercury reached just 12.7°C. Melbourne should struggle its way up to a maximum of 17°C this Monday (5°C below the long-term monthly average maximum) while Sydney should reach 26°C (which would actually be a couple of degrees above average although it will feel cooler with those westerly winds).