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A broad region of low pressure is triggering storms across the northern tropics. A trough over eastern Australia is causing showers and thunderstorms across central Qld. A front crossing Tas brings showers & the odd storm. Onshore winds are bringing showers to southern Vic.
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21 Jan 2026, 11:37PM UTC
Melbourne to hit 41°C during Australian Open
Two distinct 40-degree heat spikes are coming to Melbourne – one on Saturday and another next Tuesday – with the Australian Open tennis at Melbourne Park likely to be impacted. This time last week, Melbourne was enjoying a run of relatively stable maximus in the mid-twenties. But because Melbourne’s summer weather is influenced by cool, maritime air south of Australia and dry scorching air from Australia’s interior, that pattern was never likely to last long. The temperature see-saw for which the city is famous is now set to swing into full effect. After a high of just 20°C this Thursday under cool southerly winds, Melbourne’s maximum is expected to soar up to 40°C on Saturday with gusty northerlies. Sunday will again be much milder with a top of 27°C, before the mercury again jumps up to around 41°C on Tuesday, and some models suggest it could get much hotter. Image: Predicted maximums in Victoria on Saturday, January 24, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. How does the Australian Open Extreme Heat Policy work? For fans and players at the Australian Open, the two heat spikes will likely result in activation of the Australian Open’s Extreme Heat Policy. The policy was developed in 2018 and implemented in 2019. It came after calls for a more robust policy first emerged in 2014, when Melbourne endured four consecutive days with blistering maximums of 42.0°C, 41.6°C, 43.4°C and 42.5°C from January 14-17 during the Australian Open. That was a remarkable run when you consider that Melbourne averages only one day of 40-degree heat in January, and the result was the Australian Open Extreme Heat Policy (EHP) which is based on a Heat Stress Scale (HSS). Image: Daily Forecast for Melbourne, Vic, on the Weatherzone app. Credit: Weatherzone. The HSS factors in more than just the temperature at Melbourne Park. In addition to air temperature, it also takes into account humidity, wind speed and radiant heat (the strength of the sun plus heat radiated from surrounding surfaces like the tennis court). Three of the courts at Melbourne Park – Rod Laver Arena, Margaret Court Arena and John Cain Arena – have retractable roofs. Under extreme or wet weather conditions, the tournament referee can decide to close the roof. Play can then continue after a pause while the roof is closed. On the outer courts with no roofs, longer breaks can be introduced during extreme heat and play can even be suspended. So while the Australian Open has no specific temperature threshold at which play is suspended, it’s likely that in coming days you’ll be hearing the phrases Extreme Heat Policy and Heat Stress Scale – and probably seeing roof closures mid-match on the show courts.
21 Jan 2026, 7:49AM UTC
Heavy rain risk increasing as multiple tropical lows form near northern Australia
Three tropical lows could form near northern Australia this week, with Western Australia facing a moderate risk of a tropical cyclone and heavy rain expected in the Kimberley and northern Queensland. The satellite images below show cloud forming along a broad region of low pressure to the north of Australia on Wednesday, January 21. Image: Visible satellite images captured on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Forecast models indicate that three low pressure systems could develop near Australia in the coming days, one to the north of Western Australia and another one or two near northern Queensland. Western Australia faces cyclone threat and heavy rainfall The system starting to emerge off WA’s Kimberley coast is expected to develop into a tropical low later on Wednesday or on Thursday. This system should then move towards the south or southeast on Friday and Saturday, bringing it towards the Kimberley coast. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives this system a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday before it reaches the coast. Regardless of whether this system forms into a tropical cyclone or remains a tropical low, it is likely to cause heavy rain, flooding and blustery winds over parts of the Kimberley from Friday into the weekend. Heavy rain could also extend over parts of the Northern Territory and WA’s Interior on the weekend and early next week as the system moves inland after making landfall. Coral Sea low to move away from northern Queensland Another tropical low is expected to form over the northern Coral Sea on Wednesday night or Thursday. At this stage, this system is likely to remain at least 500 km away from the state’s east coast later this week and should move further away from the state early next week. This system has a low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone. Cape York low could increase cyclone risk next week A separate low pressure system could form to the east of Cape York Peninsula this weekend. Some computer models show this low gaining strength as it moves out over the northern Coral Sea early next week, hinting at the potential for tropical cyclone development at some point next week. However, there is currently a high amount of uncertainty with this system as it is still several days away from forming. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall over Australia during the coming week. Source: Weatherzone. Anyone living in northern Australia should keep up to date with the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories over the coming week.
21 Jan 2026, 1:19AM UTC
Extreme heat returning to southeastern Australia
A large portion of southeastern Australia is set to see furnace-like conditions from Thursday or Friday across the Australia Day long weekend and into the new week, with inland areas experiencing the most extreme heat as temperatures soar as high as 47°C at some locations. The timing of the coming heatwave means that many locations will see an extremely hot day next Monday, January 26, which is Australia Day. Huge, persistent pool of hot air to bake inland areas As you can see on the image below, large parts of inland South Australia, New South Wales, southern Queensland and northern Victoria will see the worst of the heat. The far SE corner of the Northern Territory will also be impacted. Image: Predicted maximums across the SE Aus mainland for Tuesday, January 27, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Oodnadatta in South Australia’s North East Pastoral forecast district is expecting a run of maximums of 47°C, 47°C, 46°C and 45°C from Saturday through to Tuesday. Mildura in Victoria’s northwest corner is expecting a run of maximums of 44°C, 45°C, 46°C and 46°C from Saturday through to Tuesday. Bourke in the NSW Upper Western forecast district is expecting a run of maximums of 43°C, 45°C, 46°C and 47°C from Saturday through to Tuesday. Birdsville in far SW Queensland’s Channel Country is expecting a six-day run with maximums of 44°C or 45°C from Thursday through to Tuesday. Alice Springs will see maximums of 43°C, 42°C and 42°C from Friday through to Sunday, and while you expect to see summer temperatures like that in The Alice at times, it’s worth noting that the city’s average maximum in January (the hottest month) is 36.5°C. Temperatures rise in Melbourne and Adelaide The capital cities should be spared the worst of the heat, although it will still warm up significantly in Adelaide and Melbourne. Adelaide can expect maximums of at least 35°C from Friday through to Tuesday, with the two hottest days looking like Saturday (41°C) and Monday (40°C). For Melbourne, the hottest day looks like next Tuesday, when the forecast maximum of 37°C could activate the Australian Open’s Extreme Weather Policy. Coastal parts of Sydney won’t see anything like the sweltering conditions of January 10, when the mercury topped 42°C for the second time this summer. But while the city is expecting 33°C on Sunday, the mercury will approach 40°C in places like Penrith in the city’s outer west. Canberra has not quite hit 40°C this summer, with three days when the mercury reached 39°C. That temperature should be reached again as the national capital experiences a hot run of days with maximums of 35°C, 39°C, 37°C and 39°C from Saturday through to Tuesday. Like most Australian locations south of the tropics, January is Hobart’s hottest month. And while the city’s average January maximum is a relatively mild 21.9°C, the mercury has risen as high as 41.8°C (in January 2013). In the days ahead, the hottest air won’t cross Bass Strait, with Hobart’s hottest day of the forecast period looking like Saturday, with a top of 29°C. What’s causing this spell of extreme heat? "This heatwave is being driven by a slow-moving weather pattern over southern Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Yoska Hernandez explains. "With minimal change expected in the overall circulation, hot air continues to spread across southeastern parts of the country, allowing the extreme heat to persist. "At the same time, a tropical low in the eastern Indian Ocean is forecast to strengthen, with a possible tropical cyclone approaching the Kimberley coast late this week. "This tropical system is influencing large-scale atmospheric circulation, helping sustain upper-level ridging and reinforcing the pattern that is keeping extreme heat entrenched across southeastern Australia."