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A low is moving west, taking the heaviest rain & storms in the Kimberley further west. Showers & storms are scattering across the tropics & interior, some intense, as tropical moisture feeds troughs. Hot, gusty winds in WA's west. Highs will keep much of the far south dry.
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05 Feb 2026, 11:44PM UTC
Tropical Cyclone likely to form near WA coast this weekend
A tropical cyclone is expected to develop near Western Australia’s Pilbara coast this weekend, increasing the likelihood of heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds. At 2am AWST on Friday, a tropical low was located over the western Kimberley district of WA, roughly 50 km northeast of Broome. While this low has been unable to become a tropical cyclone while over land, it has still caused heavy rain over the last few days. A rain gauge at Curtin received 115 mm of rain during the 18 hours ending at 6am AWST on Friday. Broome also collected more than 50 mm of rain over this period. Composite radar and satellite images show bands of rain wrapping around the centre of the tropical low as it moved over Broome at sunrise on Friday morning. Image: Visible satellite and radar imagery showing cloud and rain associated with a tropical low over the western Kimberley on Friday morning. Source: Weatherzone. Offshore track increasing tropical cyclone risk this weekend The low will continue to move towards the west on Friday, allowing the system to move off the west Kimberley coast and start drawing additional energy from warm water to the north of WA. This should allow the system to gain strength as it tracks in a west southwest direction to the north of the Pilbara district over the weekend. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the tropical low is likely to become a tropical cyclone late on Saturday and intensify further into Sunday morning while moving towards the west southwest roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. At this stage, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken from late Sunday as it turns more towards the south and interacts with the west Pilbara and northern Gascoyne coasts. Cyclone impacts to include flooding and damaging winds If this system does become a tropical cyclone and remain close enough to land, parts of the Pilbara could see heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds. Heavy rain should spread from the Kimberley along the Pilbara coast from Friday night into the weekend, possibly causing flash flooding in some areas. Large waves and abnormally high tides will exacerbate the flood risk in low-lying coastal areas, particularly between about Exmouth and Wickham over the weekend. Wind gusts of up to 120 km/h are also possible along the coast from about De Grey to Onslow on Saturday and early on Sunday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next three days. Source: Weatherzone. How to prepare for this severe weather event The hazards associated with this system will depend on how strong it gets and how close it remains to the coast. At this stage, people between the western Kimberley and northern Gascoyne districts, including the Pilbara, should check the latest tropical cyclone advisories, severe weather warnings and flood advisories for the most up-to-date information. The Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) website has information about what to do before, during and after a tropical cyclone. This includes the following advice for staying safe during a tropical cyclone: If sheltering at home, fill sinks, buckets, containers and bath with clean water in case mains water supply is affected. When an Emergency Warning has been issued, you must stay inside. It is extremely dangerous to go outside during the cyclone as flying debris can cause injury. If you are sheltering at home, look for ways to keep yourself and your family safe. For example, moving to a room without windows, using mattresses and cushions for protection. Image: Tropical cyclone forecast track on the Weatherzone app. Source: Weatherzone. Tropical cyclone to be named Mitchell There have already been seven tropical cyclones named inside the Australian area of responsibility so far this season, with another one moving into the region after being named near Indonesia. If the system developing to the north of WA this week is the next tropical cyclone to form in the Australian region, it will be named Mitchell and become the 9th tropical cyclone in Australia’s area of responsibility so far this season. Impressively, this would equal the total number of tropical cyclones from the entire 2023-24 season and exceed the number seen during the 2022-23 season.
05 Feb 2026, 10:28AM UTC
Thunderstorm outbreak to affect every Australian state later this week
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will develop across Australia in the coming days, possibly causing flooding in areas of the country that were baking in 50°C heat just last week. The water vapour satellite images below highlight copious moisture in the middle and upper atmosphere over northern and central Australia on Thursday. This tropical moisture will interact with a broad area of low pressure over Australia during the next few days, causing wet and stormy weather to extend further south and east across the country. Image: Enhanced water vapour satellite images captured on Thursday, February 5, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Storms in every state and territory Rain and thunderstorms are possible over part of every Australian state and territory between now and this Sunday and will likely remain widespread across the country throughout next week. This outbreak of storms is likely to feature severe thunderstorms and flooding in multiple states. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting during the next seven days. Weekly rainfall accumulations could exceed 100 mm in parts of central and northern Australia, with some areas in the north possibly seeing several hundred millimetres. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. From 50°C to flooding in central Australia One area that could see several days of heavy rain and storms in the coming week is the north of South Australia and the south of the Northern Territory. Remarkably, it has only been a matter of days since temperatures in this region reached around 50°C. Marree in SA, which registered a maximum temperature of 49.8°C on Thursday last week, could see 50 to 100 mm by the end of this week. This rain would be enough to cause flooding and may cut off some roads in central Australia. Some of this rain could also be falling straight into Lake Eyre and onto Uluru. Tropical cyclone potential in Western Australia Another area likely to see heavy rain and an increased risk of flooding over the coming week is northern WA, where a tropical low pressure system has potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low, which has already been causing heavy rain over parts of the NT and WA over the last few days, is expected to move off the Kimberley coast on Friday. Once offshore, the system is expected to intensify during the weekend as it tracks towards the west, roughly parallel to WA’s north coast. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives this system a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone off the Pilbara coast on the weekend. This developing low pressure system is likely to cause areas of heavy rain over northern WA in the coming days, although where and how much rain falls will depend on the systems track and strength during the weekend and early next week. Anyone living in northern WA should keep a close eye on the latest tropical cyclone advisories and weather warnings from this weekend into next week.
03 Feb 2026, 11:39PM UTC
Extreme fire danger in four Australian states
Hot and windy conditions will cause Extreme fire danger in parts of Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia on Wednesday, with total fire bans in place for some areas. Return of heat in southeastern Australia Despite a burst of cold weather in southeastern Australia at the start of this week, which saw sub-zero minimums in four states, temperatures are once again climbing under the influence of warm northwesterly winds. Temperatures are forecast to reach as high as 41°C in SA and 39°C in Vic on Wednesday afternoon, while across Bass Strait, the mercury is predicted to reach 30°C in parts of Tas. This warmth will combine with blustery winds to cause Extreme fire danger ratings in the following areas: Mount Lofty Ranges district in SA. This includes the Adelaide Hills. Wimmera, North Central and Central districts in Vic. This includes Melbourne and Geelong. Midlands and East Coast districts in Tas. Image: Forecast fire danger ratings and total fire bans for Wednesday, February 4, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The heat affecting southeastern Australia on Wednesday won’t be as intense as the heatwave that baked the region in the final week of January. However, below average rainfall and above average temperatures last month have helped dry out vegetation, which increases the risk of fires becoming difficult to control this week. Last month was Victoria’s driest January since 2013 and its warmest January in seven years based on maximum temperatures. Fire danger will ease for much of SA, Tas and Vic from Thursday as temperatures become cooler. However, Extreme fire danger is forecast for Vic’s North East district on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Lingering heat and fire danger in the west WA is being affected by a Severe to Extreme heatwave this week, which is elevating fire danger ratings in some areas. Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Perth reached 41.9°C on Monday and temperatures in the Gascoyne and Pilbara hit 46 to 47°C on Monday and Tuesday. Maximums in the mid- to high-40s are likely in the Pilbara and Gascoyne between Wednesday and at least Friday, with Perth also continuing to see temperatures reaching the mid-30s for the remainder of this week. This warmth will contribute to High fire danger over much of WA for the rest of this week, while Extreme fire danger is forecast for the Swan Inland North district (northeast of Perth) on Wednesday. People in areas with elevated fire danger should stay informed and follow local emergency warnings. For more information on fires, visit the following state fire authority websites: Victoria - https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/ South Australia - https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/ Tasmania - https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/ Western Australia - https://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/