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Today, 4:14AM UTC
Warm seas near Australia could counteract El Niño’s drying effect this spring
A climatic tug-of-war between a strengthening El Niño and unusually warm water surrounding Australia could cause striking weather contrasts across Australia this spring and summer. El Niño strengthening El Niño has been gaining strength in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the last few months after it was officially declared by the Bureau of Meteorology in June. At the end of August, the relative Niño 3.4 index – a measure of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a key oceanic index for monitoring El Niño – had reached +2.45°C. This is well above Australia's El Niño declaration threshold of +0.8°C. Image: Weekly relative Niño 3.4 index. Source: Weatherzone. Forecast models predict this El Niño event will continue to strengthen through the southern hemisphere's spring. Some forecast models suggest it could rival or exceed the strongest El Niño events on record, and should peak in late spring or early summer, before weakening early next year. El Niño can have a big influence on Australia's weather and is typically associated with: Below average rainfall over large areas of Australia during winter and spring. However, its influence on rainfall is typically weaker in summer and autumn. Above average maximum temperatures for most areas outside the tropics, particularly during the second half of the year. More intense daily heat extremes in southern Australia, but with a reduced frequency of prolonged heatwaves. An increased risk of dangerous fire days in southeastern Australia as temperatures rise in spring and summer. Decreased seasonal peak alpine snow depths and a shorter snow season. El Niño not acting alone One important thing to note about El Niño is that it does not act alone. Other influences, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea surface temperatures near Australia can all affect how El Niño impacts Australia’s weather. In some cases, these other influences can enhance the impact of El Niño in Australia and in other cases, they can counteract it. One thing that is currently influencing Australia’s weather alongside El Niño is warmer than average seas around much of the country. El Niño can reduce rainfall over Australia by weakening the trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards the country from the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, warmer-than-average water near Australia can supply the atmosphere with additional moisture via enhanced evaporation, which can counteract the drying influence of El Niño. At the beginning of September, sea surface temperatures were running around 0.5–1°C above average around most of Australia, with parts of the Tasman Sea running 2–3°C above average for this time of year. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies near Australia on September 1, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Forecast models predict that water temperatures will become even warmer than average during spring. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “SSTs across most of the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.” The map below shows forecast sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region in November 2026. The red areas show where sea surface temperatures are predicted to be warmer-than-average for late-spring, while blue shaded areas are predicted to be cooler-than-average. Image: Forecast sea surface temperature anomalies in November 2026 according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Mixed impacts as El Niño and locally warm oceans interact The contrasting influences of El Niño and unusually warm water near Australia are already causing mixed weather impacts across the country. Over the past three months, parts of southern and central Australia experienced winter rainfall in the top 10% of historical records. Some areas in South Australia and New South Wales even had their wettest winter on record. By contrast, winter rainfall was below average across eastern parts of Queensland, NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, and southwest WA. Parts of all five states registered winter rainfall in the bottom 10% of historical records. Image: Winter 2026 rainfall deciles, showing a stark contrast between below average (blue) and above average (red) rainfall across the country. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Temperatures also showed a strong contrast in winter. Parts of SA, the NT and WA registered near-average maximum temperatures in winter, while temperatures were well above average in eastern and northern Australia. Tasmania, the ACT, and parts of Victoria and NSW had their warmest winter on record based on daytime warmth. Image: Maximum temperature deciles in winter 2026, showing record-breaking daytime warmth in southeastern Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Looking ahead, Australia should continue seeing contrasting weather impacts as El Niño gains strength in the Pacific Ocean and local sea surface temperature anomalies become even more positive to the east and west of the country. Long-range forecasts from the Bureau show that parts of western, northern and central Australia could see above average rain this spring, while drier than average weather is predicted for southeastern Australia, southwest WA, parts of eastern and northern Queensland and the NT’s Top End. Image: Spring 2026 rainfall outlook according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. This outlook appears to reflect the increasing influence of moisture being sourced from unusually warm water in the Indian Ocean to the west of Australia in the coming months. Meteorologists will be closely watching the development of El Niño and local sea surface temperatures in the coming months to see how these competing forces will affect Australia’s weather in spring and summer. Close attention will also be paid to the IOD and SAM, which can both help tip the scales towards wetter or drier and warmer or cooler weather.
Today, 3:54AM UTC
Historically low early September snow depth as more resorts announce closure
The snow depth at Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales has dipped to 31.2 centimetres this Thursday, September 3 – the lowest on record for this time of year as more ski resorts announce early closures. Hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro has regularly measured snow depths since 1954 at three NSW locations, the highest being Spencers Creek at an elevation of 1830m, which is close to the ski resorts of Perisher, Thredbo and Charlotte Pass. This year's peak depth was 94.5 cm on August 13, which was the third-lowest on record. But the 2026 season looks likely to be the shortest on record in terms of the duration of a measurable snowpack. Image: Comparison of the graphs at Spencers Creek, NSW for the 2006 seas`on (the lowest peak depth on record, in light blue) and the 2006 season (possibly the shortest season with measurable snow on record, dark blue). Source: Snowy Hydro. Historically, the peak season depth has typically occurred around the first week of September. In the 1950s, '60s and '70s, the average depth in the first week of September was more than 180 centimetres. Thus far in the 2020s (but not including this year) the average depth in the first week of September has been around 120 centimetres. This year's 31.2 cm, as measured on September 3, is the lowest on record for the first week of September. Which ski resorts have closed and which are still open? Already, two of Australia's eight mainland ski resorts have ceased lift operations for the season, with Victoria's Mt Baw Baw and Selwyn Snow Resort in NSW both not making it through to the last week of winter. This week, Victoria's Mt Hotham and Falls Creek both announced that the last remaining ski lifts would close this Sunday, September 6 – still four weeks ahead of the planned season closing on October 4. Charlotte Pass in NSW also said it would close this weekend, with the lifts closing on Saturday, September 5. Perisher in NSW remains open this Thursday with 11 of its 45 lifts spinning – all of them in Perisher itself with the normally interlinked areas of Blue Cow, Guthega and Smiggin Holes all closed. Thredbo also remains open, while Mt Buller in Victoria is down to two beginner lifts with no word yet on the final day of lift operations. Image: An August view of the Ramshead Range near Thredbo from a snowless valley which would normally be at least partially snow-covered in an average winter. Source: Weatherzone. Why has this been such a mediocre snow season? In essence, it comes down to unseasonable warmth throughout much of winter, as well as a lack of snow-bearing cold fronts. The slightly longer version was outlined in our story on September 1 about the 2026 winter being the warmest on record across large parts of Australia – including in Tasmania, Victoria and NSW/ACT, the only Australian states or territories where snow falls regularly in winter. In that story, we identified five main reasons for the winter warmth, all of which directly impacted this year's meagre snow depth. In summary: El Niño El Niño typically brings drier than average winters and warmer maximum temperatures (due to lack of cloud) to eastern Australia and some other parts of the country. Lack of cold air with frontal systems While relatively brief bursts of cold weather did occur, prolonged cold spells were absent, with most cold fronts being pushed southwards by persistent blocking high pressure systems. Image: A moody sky and patchy snow even at the top of Thredbo in the last week of winter, 2026, Source: Weatherzone. The positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in June The SAM is a climate driver which influences the north-south displacement of the belt of powerful winds which flow year-round from west to east over the Southern Ocean, relative to where it would normally be positioned at a given time of year. The strongly positive SAM in June meant that that the belt of westerlies was further south than usual. An early snowfall just in time for the official snow season opening on June 6 provided a flicker of hope, but by July 1, the mainland high country was snowless for just the second time on record. Above average sea surface temperatures around Australia Sea surface temperatures in almost all Australian waters were warmer than average during winter. When air passes over warmer-than-average water, it absorbs some of the heat, which means slightly warmer temperatures as the air moved inland. This helped fuel several rain events over the mountains at a time of year when you'd ordinarily expect snowfalls. The underlying influence of climate change The ongoing trend of atmospheric and oceanic warming across the world helped turn what might have been a mediocre snow season by historical standards into one of the worst on record. Despite the moderate conditions, snowmaking helped keep slopes open through most of June, July and August and even into Setpember at most resorts. Mountain operations crews also spent countless hours moving snow onto high-traffic areas to keep key runs open. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cams and much more during what remains of the 2026 Australian snow season.
02 Sep 2026, 3:32AM UTC
Elevated eastern Australia bushfire risk after dry winter
The relatively dry 2026 winter across eastern Queensland and New South Wales has created the conditions for a potentially volatile spring bushfire season, especially with the strengthening El Niño. As the map below shows, winter rainfall was below average or very much below average across most of eastern subtropical Queensland and eastern New South Wales, with the exception (in NSW) of the north coast and adjacent ranges where rainfall was around average. Image: Australian rainfall deciles for winter 2026. Source: BoM. Examples of eastern Australia locations which were dry in the 2026 winter Qld Rockhampton, in Queensland's Capricornia region, didn't even break double digits for its winter rainfall. While winter is typically dry, the 2026 winter total of 9.8 mm was only 10% of the long-term seasonal average of 98.2 mm. Image: Last 12 months of rainfall for Rockhampton, Qld. Source: Weatherzone. Toowoomba, around seven hours south of Rockhampton on the eastern edge of the Darling Downs, received 48.2 mm, which was just over half the long-term average of 94.9 mm. NSW Bombala, on the tableland between the Snowy Mountains and the South Coast in the far southeastern corner of NSW, had an exceptionally dry winter with just 35.8 mm. That was around one quarter of the long-term seasonal average of 145.1 mm. Image: Last 12 months of rainfall for Bombala, NSW. Source: Weatherzone. Tenterfield, on the Northern Tablelands near the Qld border, had 63.6 mm of rain compared to the winter average of 145 mm, which was well under half the seasonal norm. Vic The map near the top of this story shows that Mallacoota, in East Gippsland near the NSW border, was in the red zone for very much below average rainfall. The coastal town, which lost more than 100 homes in Black Summer bushfires, received just 78.2 mm of rainfall across the 2026 winter, which was less than a third of the seasonal average of 244.4 mm. Dry winter fuels spring bushfire risk As the image below shows, the period from September to November is the peak fire danger season in eastern Queensland and far northeastern New South Wales – where many of this winter's most severe rainfall deficiencies occurred. Image: Peak fire danger season across Australia. Source: BoM. The risk is all the more serious given the strength of the current El Niño – a climate driver which tends to cause drier-than-usual conditions in eastern Australia and some other parts of the country. Could a wet spring moderate the danger of summer bushfires? Image: Map showing the average impact of El Niño on spring rainfall. Source: BoM. Even during a strong El Niño, there is always the chance of significant spring rainfall in many parts of Australia. Unfortunately for those hoping for rain in areas which experienced a dry winter, the BoM's latest spring rainfall outlook, issued on August 27, says that spring rainfall is likely to be below average for the far southwest of WA, as well as for southeast Australia including Tasmania, and parts of eastern and northern Qld. A reminder that bushfires can occur even in areas that did not experience rainfall deficiencies over winter. As the Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) said in its Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: "While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook. Communities are encouraged to stay informed, monitor local conditions and follow advice from their fire and emergency services as the season unfolds."