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A dominant high over southeastern Australia directs gusty winds and showers into western Tas, northeast NSW and eastern Qld, while bringing a chilly night with clear and dry conditions. Warm winds are being drawn into WA ahead of an approaching cold front.
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Today, 3:18AM UTC
East coast dry spell intensifies as El Niño maintains near-record strength
Much of Australia's east coast and adjacent inland areas remain in the grip of a prolonged spell of dry weather after the first two weeks of spring, on the back of an exceptionally dry winter. Let's examine some charts and statistics that illustrate the ongoing rainfall deficiencies in Queensland, NSW and Victoria's East Gippsland region, before examining some of the drivers of the dry conditions, including El Niño. Queensland: relentless dry continues in most east coast areas south of the tropics Image: Queensland rainfall deciles for winter 2026. Source: BoM. At the start of September, we reported that just 9.8 mm of rainfall was recorded across the whole of winter in Rockhampton in Queensland's Capricornia district (just south of the southern extent of the Great Barrier Reef). While winter is typically quite dry in the region, that was still only 10% of Rockhampton's seasonal average, and the city is yet to record a single drop of rain this spring with no rain in the forecast for the rest of this week. Brisbane has recorded less than a millimetre of rain to date in September, after below-average rainfall in each month of winter. One area which has caught some meaningful rain in September is the Sunshine Coast (Tewantin, near Noosa, has had 50 mm), but this region is very much the exception for the Queensland coast south of the tropics. New South Wales: dry spell continues in all eastern areas except the far North Coast Image: NSW rainfall deciles for winter 2026. Source: BoM. Bega is just one of many locations on the state's far south coast that had a desperately dry winter, with just 26.6 mm across June, July and August. That was just over 20% of the long-term seasonal average of 128.3 mm. To date in September, just 1mm of rainfall has registered in Bega's gauge. Sydney has received just 6.2 mm to date in September, after below-average rainfall in each of the three winter months (and the two months before that). One NSW coastal spot which has caught some meaningful rain in September is the far North Coast (Ballina leads the way with 48.4 mm) but this region is very much the exception for the entire NSW coastline. Victoria: no significant spring relief yet for far eastern tip of the state Image: Vic rainfall deciles for winter 2026. Source: BoM. In our story at the start of September, we mentioned that the East Gippsland town of Mallacoota (which lost more than 100 homes in Black Summer bushfires) received just 78.2 mm of rainfall in the 2026 winter. That was less than a third of its seasonal average of 244.4 mm. To date in September, 12 mm has fallen in Mallacoota, but the monthly average of 73.7 mm is looking increasingly distant, with only a very light shower in the forecast for the next week. Melbourne has also been relatively dry this September so far with 12.6 mm recorded to date, although it's worth mentioning that Melbourne had slightly above-average rainfall in the 2026 winter. As illustrated in the image at the top of this section, the Victorian capital is part of the large chunk of Victoria that dodged the winter 2026 eastern Australian dry spell. Why eastern Australia was so dry in the 2026 winter Over the course of the 2026 winter, moisture associated with numerous northwest cloudbands dampened large parts of southern and central Australia, as well as inland parts of eastern Australia, fuelled by tropical air masses that travelled all the way from the Indian Ocean. Moisture from these systems often petered out before crossing the Great Dividing Range, which is one reason why the east coast was so dry during winter. It's also highly likely that El Niño played a role in the east coast dry spell, as it typically makes the region drier in winter and early spring. This occurs because El Niño weakens the trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards the country from the tropical Pacific Ocean. The most recent reading of the Relative Niño3.4 Index (week ending September 13) stands at 2.51. The strongest on record was 2.65. The index indicates how unusually warm or cool the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is compared to the average temperature of all global tropical oceans. Image: The relative Niño3.4 Index as at September 13, 2026. Source: BoM. How El Niño could extend the ongoing dry spell We are now entering a potentially dangerous time of the year, with the bushfire risk increasing in eastern Australia as the landscape continues to dry out and seasonal temperatures inevitably creep upwards. Image: The BoM's season rainfall outlook for October 2026. Source: BoM. At present, October is expected to be drier than usual across most areas mentioned in this story, according to the BoM. The good news is that the outlook starts to change in November, when wetter weather is predicted. It's also worth reiterating a point made by Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino earlier this month, when he argued that warm seas near Australia could counteract El Niño’s drying effect this spring. That's because warmer-than-average water near Australia can supply the atmosphere with additional moisture via enhanced evaporation, which can counteract the drying influence of El Niño. Farmers, firefighters and all residents of Australia's east coast will be hoping for significant rainfall soon, before the current dry spell escalates into a widespread severe drought.
Today, 1:33AM UTC
Spring freeze sends temperatures below zero across five states
A spring chill is gripping southeastern Australia this week, with temperatures dropping below zero degrees in five states and territories on Thursday morning. A cold and dry air mass combined with relatively light winds and clear skies over southeastern Australia on Wednesday night. This combination allowed for efficient radiative cooling near the surface, which caused temperatures to plummet. By the early hours of Thursday morning, temperatures had dropped to around -7°C in parts of New South Wales and -5°C in Victoria. Parts of NSW, Victoria, the ACT, Tasmania and SA registered temperatures lower than 0°C on Thursday morning. The coldest place in the country was -6.9°C at Goulburn Airport in NSW, which was Goulburn’s lowest spring temperature since September 2017. Image: Lowest minimum temperatures in NSW, Vic, ACT, Tas and SA on Thursday, September 17, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While winds were light enough for frost to form over a broad area of Australia's southeast mainland on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, conditions were cloudier and windier in Tas and coastal areas of Vic and NSW. Wind gusts reached close to 100 km/h in exposed areas of southwest Tasmania on Thursday morning, with the weather station at Maatsuyker Island clocking a 98 km/h gust shortly after 9:30am. In Sydney, winds gusting at around 30 to 40 km/h on Thursday morning made the temperature feel like 2.5°C at 6 am and still only 5°C by 8 am – a wintry shock for any underdressed commuters. Image: Canberra observations since midnight in the Weatherzone app, as of 11:50 am AEST on Thursday, September 17, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Some of the cold air that sent shivers across southeastern Australia on Thursday morning even reached northern Queensland. Cairns registered a minimum temperature of 12.4°C early Thursday, which was around 6°C below average and its lowest spring temperature since September 2019. Minimum temperatures will increase over the next few mornings as warmer air returns to southeastern Australia on the western flank of a high pressure system. This change in air masses will also cause days to become increasingly warmer, with some areas in the country’s southeast likely to have their warmest days in four-to-five months this weekend.
16 Sep 2026, 5:24AM UTC
Extreme fire danger after Darwin's hottest day of the year
A fire weather warning for extreme fire danger in the Darwin and Adelaide River district of the Northern Territory is in effect this Wednesday, as numerous fires burn in the immediate vicinity of the NT capital. The NT government has two main categories for non-structural fires in the outdoors – bushfires, and grass and scrub fires – and both types of fires were burning this Wednesday. Image: Bushfire smoke can be seen near Katherine and southeast of Darwin at 2 pm (ACST) on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, Source: Weatherzone. Let's take a look at the short-term and long-term weather conditions in Darwin which have fuelled today's extreme fire danger near the city. Seasonal factors: dry season was even drier than usual While minimal rainfall is expected during the middle of the year in Darwin, the city has still received less than usual to date in the 2026 dry season. As of this Wednesday, September 16, Darwin has received just 7 mm of rainfall since the commencement of the official dry season on May 1. May typically sees 20.0 mm of rainfall on average, but Darwin received just 2.2 mm. Rainfall in what southerners call the "winter" months of June, July and August is almost negligible in Darwin. But it's still worth mentioning that both July and August were bone dry in Darwin this year. So far in September, just 1.8 mm of rainfall has been recorded. The long-term monthly average is 16.8 mm. Darwin’s average monthly maximums and minimums were both around one degree above average during each of June, July and August. The above differences from the average are relatively marginal (especially the rainfall deficiencies, given you are starting from such a low base). But these factors have nonetheless dried out the Top End landscape a little more than usual. This week's weather: southeasterly winds bring heat to the Top End Darwin hit 36°C on Sunday, its hottest day of the year to date, while this Wednesday marks the seventh straight day that Darwin's maximum has exceeded September's average high of 32.7°C by at least a degree. Interestingly, the same weather system which has pushed chilly winds to the southeast corner of the country is largely responsible for Wednesday's extreme Top End fire danger. Image: Synoptic chart for September 16, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. In the wake of a cold front that passed over the southeast corner of the country, air circulating anti-clockwise around the high pressure system continues to funnel chilly air with polar origins onto Tasmania and the southeastern mainland. But as the air moves inland and continues to circulate around the high, it gains warmth from the interior of the continent and is very warm by the time it reaches the Top End. Southeasterly winds are also gusty in the Top End this Wednesday, with gusts exceeding 50 km/h recorded in most NT forecast districts. It all adds up to the classic recipe for Top End fire danger, and with more hot weather and no significant rain on the horizon for the next week, it's likely that further fire danger warnings will be issued. You can monitor the location and status of fires on the NT Fire Incident Map.