Australian Weather

Today, 2:58AM UTC

Rain has begun to fall across parts of inland South Australia, Victoria and western New South Wales, with moderate falls likely by the end of the working week. Heavier rain will also develop in northwest Tasmania from Wednesday evening through to Friday as a series of troughs crosses the state. Let’s take a look at the origins of the inland moisture, as well as some of the rainfall totals already observed with this system, and how much rain is yet to come (and where). Moisture feed from the Indian Ocean Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies across Australia on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Source: BoM. The inland rain falling on Tuesday is being driven by a feed of tropical moisture all the way from the waters off northwestern WA, where sea surface temperatures (beyond the immediate coastal fringe) are above-average for this time of year. A northwest cloudband has formed across Australia. While these cloud features often look spectacular on the satellite image, they don't always deliver large amounts of rainfall across their entire length. However, rain is falling in some eastern inland regions due to a trough over western NSW. How much rain has fallen so far? Image: Satellite image over Australia at 11 am (AEST) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. In the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday, the highest inland rainfall reading associated with Indian Ocean moisture and the northwest cloudband was of 21.2 mm at Braemar, a South Australian cattle station about 260 km NE of Adelaide. Numerous other inland locations saw totals above 10 mm. The heaviest rainfall totals anywhere in Australia in the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday were along the east coast, where totals reached around 40 mm on parts of the NSW Mid North Coast and 30 mm on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast. This rain was due to an onshore flow from the Tasman and Coral seas, enhanced by above-average sea surface temperatures, especially off the NSW coast. Where will rain fall in coming days? Image: Rain radar loop for the four hours to midday (AEST) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, for parts of eastern Australia's inland. Source: Weatherzone. Rainfall totals up to 20 mm or slightly higher could be recorded across large parts of inland Victoria and southern inland NSW in coming days, with showers also likely in central and northern inland NSW. As mentioned at the top of this story, northwest Tasmania looks set for the heaviest falls, with Wednesday looking particularly soggy for the far northwest of the state, with 24-hour totals of around 40 mm possible. All of the southeastern capitals should see at least a few showers during the rest of the working week, but the rain should be heaviest on or west of the Great Dividing Range. The role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in inland rain events fed by tropical moisture Image: Weekly IOD index values up until Sunday, August 16, 2026. Source: BoM. When discussing northwest cloudbands, it’s always worth mentioning the current status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a key climate driver which influences daily weather across large parts of Australia. The IOD is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. With a positive IOD, cooler-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean typically bring below-average rain and higher temperatures to central and southern Australia. Conversely, the warmer-than-average waters in eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean during a negative IOD typically bring above-average rain and cooler days to large parts of Australia. The IOD is currently in a neutral phase. So you can’t directly attribute this week’s inland rain to the current phase of the IOD. But it’s not hindering this event.

17 Aug 2026, 9:07AM UTC

El Niño is strengthening so quickly that it could make 2026 become Earth’s warmest year on record. According to new data from Berkeley Earth, there is a 69 % chance that 2026 will become the warmest year on record and a 30 % chance that it will come in at second place behind 2024. This outlook is a significant increase from the previous month, when Berkeley Earth was only giving 2026 a 12 % chance of beating 2024. The shift in their outlook is due to last month being the second warmest July on record for global temperatures. Another key factor is the rapid pace at which El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is giving more confidence to computer models that are suggesting it will become the strongest El Niño on record. Image: Global average temperatures in July, according to Berkeley Earth’s dataset. Source: Berkely Earth. Because El Niño is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, it’s presence typically increased global average temperatures. Moreover, stronger El Niño events have a stronger warming influence on the global climate. Despite the first six months of this year ranking as the third warmest January-to-June on record, the presence of a very strong El Niño in the second half of the year should push the annual average temperature into second or first place by the end of December. But the influence of this record-breaking El Niño won’t end there. The ongoing effects of El Niño’s vast ocean warmth are likely to make 2027 even warmer than 2026. It is common for the year following El Niño’s formation to set a new global heat record. This happened in 2024, 2016 and 1998, which all followed El Niño and became record-breaking warm years at the time. According to Berkeley Earth, “because El Niño’s global impact lags its Pacific peak, an even larger warming influence – and a strong chance of a further record – is expected in 2027.”