Australian Weather

19 Aug 2026, 3:42AM UTC

No significant snowfalls are indicated on the forecast models for at least the next week, meaning the 2026 Australian snow season will head towards spring with a relatively meagre snow pack and serious questions over the longevity of ski lift operations. On August 13, the snow depth reached a running season peak of almost a metre at Spencers Creek (elevation 1830 m) – the highest of three NSW sites where hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro has regularly measured the snowpack in the cooler months since 1954. Last week’s 94.5 cm has dropped to 90.2 cm this Wednesday, August 19, due to relatively warm conditions. With rain starting to develop across the mountains today, and with no signs of significant snowfalls over the next two weeks, expect the graph to continue downwards. Image: Comparison of the 2026 season to date (dark blue line) and the 2025 season at Spencers Creek, New South Wales. Source: Snowy Hydro. Wrong weather patterns for snowfalls The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning the band of westerly winds that circulate the globe over the Southern Ocean is neither more nor less likely (for this time of year) to deliver snow-producing cold fronts to southern Australia. Under a neutral SAM (or even a positive SAM which pushes the westerlies further south towards Antarctica), there's still always the chance that a strong system with polar origins will defy the underlying trend and push northwards towards the Australian Alps. READ MORE: What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? Unfortunately for snow enthusiasts and businesses that depend on the snow trade, there’s no sign of a significant outbreak of cold air with polar origins for at least the next week. Instead, there is only unseasonable warmth, with occasional influxes of moisture which has originated over the tropical waters northwest of Australia. As a follow-up to the rainfall developing this Wednesday which is expected to continue into Thursday, it now looks increasingly likely that another rain event will develop across southeastern Australia early next week. That will mean more rain for the mountains, with snow possible only at the highest elevations. Image: Four-hour satellite and radar loop to 1 pm (AEST) on Wednesday August 19, 2026, showing the rainband approaching the mountains. Source: Weatherzone. How will the snow season look after the coming bursts of rain? Resorts with significant snowmaking infrastucture should hold up reasonably well on the main runs, given the recent spell of decent snowmaking weather at most resorts. For example the mercury has fallen below zero every single night bar one to date this August at Perisher (NSW). On almost all of those nights, the snow guns have been firing. But only three of those nights at Perisher have been colder than -5°C. Conditions have been much more marginal for snowmaking at many locations across the mountains. Australia’s two lowest resorts – Mt Baw Baw (Vic) and Selwyn Snow Resort (NSW) – are already reduced to thin strips of manmade snow with virtually no natural snow cover. Even the busy Mt Buller resort (Vic) now has almost no skiable terrain outside its snowmaking areas. Australia’s largest ski resort, Perisher (NSW), still has 37 of its 45 lifts operating, although that number could drop after this week’s rain. Thredbo has been running all 15 of its lifts at various stages this week, although some are on wind hold this Wednesday. Charlotte Pass (NSW) still has all five of its lifts spinning, although the snow near the bottom of its new Guthries Chairlift is hanging on by a thread, Image: At least there are no crowds at Charlotte Pass. Source: charlottepass.com.au. Falls Creek (Vic) has 12 of its 15 lifts open while Hotham (Vic) has been running 10 of its 14 lifts this week but some are on wind hold this Wednesday. As ever, you can check the latest forecasts, live cam images and more on the Weatherzone snow page.

19 Aug 2026, 2:55AM UTC

Australia’s national bushfire outlook has been released for spring 2026, revealing that parts of seven states and territories will have an increased risk of bushfires in the next three months. Why spring is an active time of year for fires in Australia Spring is typically a time of year when northern Australia is in the peak of its fire season, while conditions are also becoming more conducive to fires in Australia’s central latitudes and in some parts of southern Australia. This southward progression of fire danger during spring occurs as temperatures rise across the country, while vegetation that dried out in winter and early spring increases fire fuel loads outside the tropics. Image: Peak fire seasons in Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. What can we expect this spring? Spring 2026 will be influenced by a very strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean – a climate driver that typically promotes abnormally warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia during spring. Above average sea surface temperatures surrounding most of Australia will also influence rain and storm potential throughout the season. According to the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC), there will be an increased risk of bushfires in southeastern NSW, southeast Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of WA, SA and Victoria, and large parts of the NT this spring. Image: Spring 2026 bushfire outlook. Red areas on the map have an increased risk of fires this spring, while the rest of the map has an average risk of fires for this time of year. Source: AFAC. Eastern and southeastern Australia A broad area of northeast NSW and southern Qld experienced a drier and warmer than average start to 2026. During the 7-month period from January to July, rainfall was in the lowest 10% of historical records for inland areas of southern Qld and northeast NSW. This caused a depletion in root-zone soil moisture, which has enhanced evaporation stress and contributed to increased curing (the drying out of vegetation) and fuel availability heading into the start of spring. Image: Observed rainfall deciles during the first seven months of 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The last few months have also been abnormally dry in southeast NSW and parts of eastern Vic, resulting in very much below-average root zone soil moisture (lowest 10% of historical records). In addition to this dryness, temperatures were also above average across large areas of Australia in the last three months, with a broad area of southeastern Australia registering its warmest May-to-July period on record. Image: Mean temperature deciles for the three month period from May to July 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, this spring is likely to be warmer and drier than average for parts of eastern and southeastern Australia, with ongoing root zone soil moisture deficiencies likely to persist across these regions. This outlook suggests that parts of eastern and southeastern Australia will experience ongoing drying of fuel loads in the coming months, which should be enhanced by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in some areas. The AFAC outlook highlights southern inland Qld, northern inland NSW, southeast NSW, parts of southern and eastern Vic and northeast Tas as areas that will have an increased risk of fires this spring. Central Australia A broad area of central Australia is forecast to have an increased risk of fires in the next few months, extending over parts of SA and up through the NT as far north as the Barkly and Gregory districts. In the north, this elevated fire risk is due to the Top End fire season likely extending longer than usual due to a delayed wet season onset. Further south, an abundance of drying vegetation following above-average rain earlier this year is expected to supply ample fuel for fires in the coming months. According to the AFAC, “fire activity is likely to contract southwards from November, with the Barkly and Tanami districts entering their peak fire danger period in October and November.” “Across Central Australia, above average temperatures and extensive long-unburnt fuels in the Simpson Desert region towards the NT, Queensland and SA borders are expected to support above average fire potential from September.” Image: Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Western Australia Pockets of WA are expected to have an increased risk of fires this spring, primarily due to above average fuel loads and dry soil conditions, combined with below-average spring rainfall predicted in the state’s southwest. In the state’s northwest, the Cape Range, Wooramel, Western Murchison, Geraldton Hills, and Yalgoo bioregions are highlighted as areas that could see enhanced fire activity due to increased fuel loads associated with growth caused by rain from recent ex-tropical cyclones. The southern Geraldton Sandplains, Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, and Warren bioregions are also predicted to see above average fire potential in late-spring, with below-average rain expected to enhance soil moisture deficiencies towards the end of the season. Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. What does ‘enhanced fire risk’ actually mean? It is important to point out that fires can occur in any part of Australia, even in areas that are not predicted to have an increased risk of fires this spring. The AFAC defines an increased risk of fire as: “The likelihood of an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in the outlook period compared to the average risk. Risk depends on factors including weather and climate, fuels, recent fire history, natural and human barriers, and the speed and effectiveness of fire suppression."