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A moist, unstable airmass, with a front to the south, is driving rain and storms over central Australia, NSW, Vic and Tas. Onshore winds around high pressure ridges is driving showers over coastal NSW, eastern Qld and southwest WA, with drier conditions further inland.
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Today, 3:04AM UTC
The 2026 Indian Southwest Monsoon onset expected in next two weeks
The Indian Southwest Monsoon will reach India in the next two weeks, but a developing El Niño could signal a drier than normal monsoon. Southwest monsoon onset over southern India in the next two weeks The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for tracking the advance and retreat of the monsoon over India. This weekend, the IMD issued the first progression of the northern limits of the southwest monsoon, just reaching the Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 16 May 2026, over the southern reaches of the Bay of Bengal. According to the IMD, the monsoon onset is likely to reach Kerala on 26 May 2026 (with a model error of ± 4 days), five days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1st. Image: Advance of the 2026 southwest monsoon onset (blue) and the normal dates of onset (red). Source: IMD To make this early forecast onset date the IMD monitors these key monsoon predictors: Minimum temperatures over Northwest India Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over South Peninsula Cloudiness over the South China Sea and northeast Indian Ocean Trade wind strength over the southeast and northeast Indian Ocean The southwest monsoon is characterised by a surge of westerly winds extending 5-7 kilometres above sea level. These winds are laden with moisture from the Arabian Sea, bringing periods of heavy rainfall and squally conditions across much of southern India. Image: Moisture laden monsoon clouds can be seen on satellite imagery moving from west to east over the southern Bay of Bengal on Saturday, 16 May 2026. Source: Weatherzone The southwest monsoon usually takes 4-6 weeks to progress into the far north of the country. The Western Ghats, an insurmountable mountain range along the west of India, splits the monsoon into the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches. DTN APAC Explainer: The Indian Monsoon The onset of the monsoon over the Indian sub-continent brings relief from sweltering heatwaves, but the heavy rainfall led to significant disruptions to transport and energy utilities. The monsoon rains are also imperative to India’s agriculture sector, with about three quarters of India’s rainfall occurring during the monsoon season. Nearly half of the Indian population is employed by the agricultural sector, which contributes greatly to the country’s economy. How climate drivers will impact the 2026 Indian summer monsoon The IMD predicts below normal (95-90% of the Long Period Average (LPA)) rainfall across India during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. The dominant factor driving the below average rainfall expected during the coming monsoon season is the predicted strong El Niño developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. While occurring in a different oceanic basin, El Niño events shift the Walker Circulation pressure pattern, leading to higher than normal pressure over the eastern Indian Ocean and weaker monsoonal winds. As a result, El Niño events are typically associated with reduced monsoonal rainfall and increased potential for drought, especially over northwestern and southeastern India. More locally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could move towards the positive phase late in the monsoon season. Positive IOD events are characterised by warmer than average waters in the IOD West region (see below), near the Horn of Africa. Warmer waters to the southwest of India increase the moisture content of monsoonal winds and can lead to increased rainfall during the rainy season. If this positive IOD event can become established, it will most likely peak after the end of the southwest Indian monsoon season, which runs till about September, but could contribute to increased monsoonal rainfall late in the season. Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly forecasts across the Indian and Pacific oceans during September 2026, showing the strong El Niño and possible positive IOD events. Source: DTN Another factor that seasonal forecasters need to consider ahead of the monsoon season is the northern hemisphere snow cover, especially around Siberia. The start of 2026 saw slightly below average snow cover extent, which can increase land warming during the springtime (reflecting less solar energy). This allows warm air to rise to the north of India, decreasing the pressure and drawing stronger monsoonal winds early in the season. As a result, an earlier monsoon onset over the sub-continent is possible in the coming weeks. Under the influence of these climate drivers, along with seasonal computer modelling, the IMD predicts India will experience 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) monsoon season (June to September) rainfall, with a model error of ±5%. While below average rainfall is forecast across broad parts of the country, parts of northeastern, northwestern and South Peninsular India could see average to above average rainfall, as seen in the seasonal model output below. Image: Probability forecast of below normal (yellow to red), normal (green) and above normal (blue) of 2026 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall across India. Source: IMD The 2025 southwest monsoon season featured heavy rain periods. The cumulative rainfall across the country throughout the season was 937.2mm, 107.9% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm. DTN APAC’s review of the 2025 southwest monsoon season Excesses or deficiencies in monsoonal rainfall can lead to floods or droughts, impacting India’s food security, livelihood and overall economy. Replenishments of water resources like rivers, lakes and groundwater vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies also impact hydropower energy generation.
16 May 2026, 12:37AM UTC
Welcome widespread weekend South Australia and Adelaide May rain
Widespread rainfall has soaked broad parts of South Australia and Adelaide, including over drought affected regions. As seen in the satellite loop below, moist tropical air has been drawn south over central and southern Australia into the weekend, delivering welcomed rainfall to South Australia and Adelaide. Image: Satellite water vapour imagery on Saturday, 16 May 2026 showing the deep feed of tropical moisture streaming across the country into southern Australia. Source: Weatherzone Notable rainfall observations to 9am Saturday, 16 May 2026 included: 36mm at Cape Borda (Kangaroo Island) 35mm at Neptune Island 33mm at Port Lincoln Ap (Eyre Peninsula) 32mm at Parndana (Kangaroo Island) and 32mm at Point Avoid (Coffin Bay) 30mm at Loxton (Riverland) This rainfall also made it the wettest day (of any month) in: 7 years for Point Avoid (Coffin Bay, 32mm) Nearly 5 years for Neptune Island (35mm) Nearly 3 years for Cape Borda (36mm) and Stenhouse Bay (23mm) Over 2 years for Cleve Ap (27mm) and Port Lincoln Ap (33mm) The map below shows that much of this rainfall fell across northern and central parts of the state, with May rainfall typically originating from more southern latitudes, making this unseasonable rainfall. Parts of the Eyre, Yorke and Fleurieu peninsulas and Kangaroo Island that have long term multi-year rainfall deficiencies driving drought conditions have benefited from this rainfall. Image: Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) and rainfall observations to 9am ACST on Saturday, 16 May 2026. Source: DTN As a result, this was the wettest May day in: 33 years for Cleve Ap (27mm) 12 years for Yunta (14mm) and Port Lincoln Ap (29mm) 10 years for Port Augusta (17mm), Woomera (19mm), Oodnadatta (16mm), and Loxton (30mm) 9 years for Lameroo (16mm) 7 years for Point Avoid (Coffin Bay, 32mm), Cape Borda (36mm), and Whyalla (11mm) 5 years for Cummins (14mm) The Adelaide region also received healthy rainfall, with widespread falls of 10 to 20mm across most of the metropolitan and hill areas. Adelaide’s official weather station recorded a rainfall total of 11.8mm in the 24 hours to 9am, marking the wettest day of the month yet. This brings the May rainfall total to 32mm for the city, which is nearly half the average May rainfall of 67.4mm. Image: May 2026 to Date Temperatures and Rainfall for Adelaide, as seen on the Weatherzone app. Most of the rainfall has fallen for South Australia, with rain over the east, and scattered showers and possible thunderstorms over the south and west gradually contracting eastwards on Sunday.
15 May 2026, 6:37AM UTC
Warmth and widespread rain this weekend: where will it be wet?
A broad area of rain is set to soak Australia this weekend, with Adelaide and nearby areas already getting a welcome drink this Friday afternoon. The moisture from this system originated in the tropics and has fed down to central and southern Australia under northerly winds, which means it’s also exceptionally warm for this time of year in many places. Examples of unseasonable warmth: Melbourne reached 22.7°C this Friday, almost six degrees above its average May maximum of 16.8°C. That made it 7 out of the first 15 days this May when the mercury has topped 20°C in Melbourne, and 22°C is forecast for this Saturday, May 16. Hobart reached 20.7°C today, just over six degrees above its average May maximum of 14.6°C. Hobart started the month with a record May high of 26.9°C on May 1, and this month’s maximums are currently running at 4.2 degrees above average, with another day of 21°C forecast for Saturday. Areas where significant rain could fall this weekend: Image: Combined radar and satellite loop in South Australia for the six hours to 3:30pm (ACST) on Friday, May 15, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. South Australia As mentioned, rain has already started falling in South Australia. Between 9am and 3pm (ACST) on Friday, more than 15mm was recorded at Stenhouse Bay (Yorke Peninsula) and at Parawa West (Fleurieu Peninsula, just south of Adelaide). Adelaide received 3.8mm between 9am and 3pm. On the weekend, at least a few showers or storms are expected in all 15 South Australian official BoM forecast districts, from the normally parched North West Pastoral to the reliably rainy Lower South East. Western Victoria and New South Wales Significant falls are possible in western parts of both NSW and Vic on Saturday, with meaningful rain from this system not extending further east until the first few days of next week – although it’s worth noting that coastal NSW has been receiving rain all week, including this Friday, from an easterly system. Canberra has had almost no rain this May (0.4mm in total to May 15) but can expect a decent drop on Monday and/or Tuesday after a mostly dry weekend, as this system finally reaches the NSW Southern Tablelands and the ACT. Tasmania Sunday looks like the wettest day of a consistently showery 4-day forecast period in Tasmania, with falls heavier in the northern, western and elevated parts of the state than in Hobart and the southeast. Queensland It’s a strange May weekend when Birdsville could be wetter than Brisbane, but that’s on the cards this weekend with inland rain set to soak SW Queensland, while Brisbane should still see coastal showers under easterly or southeasterly winds. Northern Territory The weekend looks wet in the southern NT, including in Alice Springs, where both Saturday and Sunday should provide the first days of meaningful rainfall since this year’s very wet February and March. Wherever you are, we hope you get rain if you need it this weekend.