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A deep, slow-moving low off WA's south coast is bringing showers & gusty winds to southeast WA. A cold front is causing heavy rain over SA with showers & storms extending north over southwest NT. Moist northerly winds bring a few showers to Tas.
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Today, 4:50AM UTC
Will El Niño spoil the 2026 Australian snow season?
El Niño was officially declared by the BoM on Tuesday, June 16. So how might it affect snowfall prospects for the rest of the Australian snow season? The 2026 Australian snow season got underway on June 6, but warm overnight temperatures have hindered snowmaking since then, while rain has washed away the early snowfall that arrived just before the traditional King’s Birthday long weekend season opening. While it’s still early days, it hasn’t been an auspicious beginning. Currently, only a few very basic beginner slopes at some New South Wales and Victorian resorts are open, thanks to the remnants of early season snowmaking. Typically, El Niño years have coincided with below-average Australian snow seasons, although that doesn’t necessarily mean the 2026 season will turn out to be a dud. Let’s dig a little deeper. Image: Remnant snow patches from early season snowmaking at Perisher on June 16, 2026. Source: Steve Smith. What is El Niño and how does it form? El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a global ocean and atmospheric phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific. The other phases are La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). You can read a full breakdown of what causes El Niño in our explainer story on the Weatherzone news feed. But the brief version is: El Niño occurs when warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and trade winds weaken or reverse over the Pacific. This in turn affects rainfall and temperature patterns on both sides of the Pacific, and potentially further afield. El Niño tends to suppress cloud and rainfall across large parts of Australia, especially the eastern half, which in turn often leads to warmer daytime temperatures. How El Niño typically disrupts the Australian snow season El Niño typically reduces the amount of rainfall that occurs during winter and spring over eastern Australia. Combine that with an increased likelihood of above-average daytime temperatures in southern and southeastern Australia from winter through spring, and the chance of heavy snowfalls decreases, while the resilience of the snowpack is often compromised due to warmer temperatures. The graph below shows the relationship between Australian snow depths and so-called 'super' El Niño events – a term applied to very strong El Niños, which this year’s event is projected to be. Image: Season peak snow depths at Spencers Creek NSW (as measured since 1954 by Snowy Hydro), with very strong or ‘super’ El Niño years highlighted in red. Source: Weatherzone. Note that three out of four seasons (1982, 1997, 2015) which coincided with super El Niño events had significantly below-average snowfall. It’s also worth noting that the lowest season on record at Spencers Creek (2006, peak depth just 85.1cm) occurred during the El Niño event of 2006/07. "No two El Niño events are the same and stronger El Niño events do not necessarily relate to stronger impacts in Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino says. "While the presence of El Niño and the background influence of climate change increase the likelihood of below-average peak snow depth in the Australian Alps this season, it only takes a few decent snowfalls to offset the influence of El Niño." So overall, while strong or even relatively weak El Niños do not bode well for consistently snowy Australian winters in our snowfields, they don’t mean there’s no chance of a good season. You never know when a strong, cold system lurking in the Southern Ocean will surge across southeastern Australia. Which resorts are most at risk of low snow levels? As ever, Australia’s lowest ski resorts are most at risk of a poor snow season. Even in 2025 – which was a decent season at higher altitude resorts like Perisher and Thredbo (NSW) and Mt Buller, Falls Creek and Mt Hotham (Vic) – Australia’s lower resorts like Mt Baw Baw (Vic) and Selwyn Snow Resort (NSW) had relatively short-lived, mediocre seasons. Baw Baw tops out at around 1550 metres, while Selwyn’s highest point is around 1600 metres. Increasingly, the Australian snowpack is unreliable at lower elevations. So our lower resorts potentially have an extra level of vulnerability this year. Image: No natural snow and not even a few patches of snowmaking snow on the snow cam at Selwyn Snow Resort in NSW on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Source: ski.com.au. What are forecasters saying about long-term and short-term snow prospects this season? The BoM’s latest long-range forecast for July to September, issued on June 11 (before El Niño was declared, predicted the likelihood of: Below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia. Above-average daytime temperatures in Australia south of the tropics. Above-average overnight temperatures for much of the country. This is obviously not great news for snow, but as mentioned, individual or multiple weather events can change the picture quickly for the snowfields. In the short-term, a few flakes are likely to fall on Friday into this Saturday with a coming system, but unfortunately, most of the moisture will likely fall as rain in warmer air ahead of the influx of cooler air from the south. Looking further ahead towards the last week of June, further light snowfalls are possible but only at higher elevations. At this stage, no significant snow-laden cold front lies on the horizon. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and much more throughout the 2026 Australian snow season. Here's hoping the snowfields are soon at their wintry best. Image: Ski runs at Mt Hotham in Victoria with Mt Feathertop in the background during a good Australian snow season. Source: iStock/Chris Gordon.
Today, 1:34AM UTC
Flooding rain targeting South Australia
A northwest cloudband will cause heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of South Australia on Wednesday, with flash flooding possible in some parts of the state. Moisture-laden northwesterly winds interacting with a low pressure system passing over the Bight will cause a vast band of cloud, rain and storms to pass over SA on Wednesday and Thursday morning. The satellite image below shows the cloudband covering most of SA on Wednesday morning. Image: Enhanced infrared satellite image, showing cloud over SA and a low pressure system near the south coast of Western Australia at 10 am ACST on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Some areas in SA received close to 50 mm of rain during the 24 hours ending at 9am on Wednesday. This included 47 mm at Tarcoola, which was its heaviest June daily rainfall on record, with data available back to 1907. The heaviest rain on Wednesday is expected to fall over SA’s North West Pastoral, West Coast and Eyre Peninsula districts. Six-hourly rainfall rates of 30 to 40 mm are possible in these areas, most likely in the morning and afternoon. After soaking the state’s west, the band of rain will spread across SA’s central and eastern districts between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. This will include Adelaide, which could see around 10 to 20 mm of rain from this system. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 48 hours ending at 9:30 pm ACST on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The rainband will clear from SA on Thursday morning, although another round of showers and blustery winds will develop on Thursday and Friday as the low passes to the south of the state. Damaging winds are possible in some areas on Thursday, most likely along the West Coast.
16 Jun 2026, 10:21AM UTC
El Niño is here and it could challenge records in 2026
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño has arrived and it is likely to last until at least the end of the year. Forecast models also suggest this could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record. What is El Niño? El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a global ocean and atmosphere phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific. The other phases of ENSO are La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific become warmer than average and trade winds blowing across the tropical Pacific weaken or reverse. These changes cause cloud and rainfall to become suppressed in the western Pacific and enhanced over the central and eastern Pacific. El Niño also causes changes to rainfall and temperatures patterns in other parts of the world. El Niño usually takes months to become established and often lasts for several consecutive seasons, sometimes persisting over a couple of years. El Niño events typically start in autumn or winter, peak in spring or summer and decay early in the new year. El Niño declared On Tuesday, June 16, the Bureau of Meteorology declared that El Niño was underway in the tropical Pacific. This declaration followed several months of increasing temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and recent atmospheric changes that are consistent with an El Niño pattern. According to the Bureau, “Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are above El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators are also aligning with an El Niño state. This suggests the ocean and atmosphere are acting to reinforce the ENSO state.” Image: Global sea surface temperature anomalies on June 14, 2026, showing a tongue of abnormally warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This is a clear sign of El Niño. Source: NOAA. This declaration from the Bureau follows a similar announcement from the United States National Weather Service (NWS) on Thursday, June 11. Earlier in the month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had also issued a statement warning the world to prepare for El Niño, noting that it could be a strong event that “will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.” This El Niño could be one for the record books Current forecasts indicate that this El Niño will continue to strengthen during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter and spring and will likely last beyond the end of the year. This El Niño is expected to become a strong or very strong event, with the Bureau pointing out that “around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.” One of the key metrics used to measure El Niño is the relative Niño3.4 index – a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies on the central tropical Pacific Ocean. In Australia, El Niño occurs when the relative Niño3.4 index is above +0.8°C for a prolonged period. According to data on the Bureau of Meteorology’s website, the highest monthly Niño 3.4 value in records dating back to 1900 was +2.65°C in November 1902. The Bureau’s ACCESS-S model currently forecasts the relative Niño3.4 index to reach +3.3°C in November this year, which would obliterate the old record by more than 0.6°C. What does this El Niño mean for Australia? No two El Niño events are the same and stronger El Niño events do not necessarily relate to stronger impacts in Australia. However, El Niño typically makes the following weather more likely in Australia: Reduced rainfall during winter and spring, particularly over the eastern half of Australia. Above average daytime temperatures in southern and southeastern Australia from winter to summer. Increased winter and early-spring frost risk in southeastern Australia due to clearer skies. Less snow, including a lower peak snow depth and shorter snow season. Delayed monsoon onset in northern Australia. Increased risk of fires. Current long-range forecasts for Australia point towards below average rain over large areas of southern and eastern Australia between July and September this year. Daytime temperatures are also expected to be higher than average for much of the country during this three-month period. Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall during the three-month period from July to September 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature during the three-month period from July to September 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. It’s also important to note that El Niño will not be the only influence on Australia’s weather during the coming months and seasons. Other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may also enhance or counteract the influence of El Niño as we move through the second half of 2026.