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A surface trough and associated low are bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of northern Australia. Scattered thunderstorms under unstable winds across parts of northeast NSW and Qld. Clear skies in most of WA's south, SA's west and south, and Vic.
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Today, 1:17AM UTC
Southeastern Australia's driest January in 17 years
In news that won’t surprise residents of Melbourne, Adelaide or plenty of other places in Australia's most heavily populated corner, southeastern Australia just had its driest January since 2009. It was also the region's second-driest start to the year since 1965, with January rainfall down by 23.14mm on the long-term mean, when averaged across all official weather stations in the region. Image: January rainfall anomalies across southeastern Australia dating back to 1900. Source: BoM. How dry has it been? The chart below shows rainfall deciles across Australia for January 2026. As you can see, the largest area of red (denoting very much below average rainfall) is located in the southeast of the country. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in January, 2026. Source: BoM. The dry January came after much of the southeast also endured below-average December rainfall, making for significant rainfall deficiencies in the first two months of the 2025/26 summer. For example: Adelaide (SA) had just 2.8mm of rainfall in December (average 25.9mm) and absolutely no rain in January (average 29.1mm). Melbourne (VIC) had 27.8mm in December (average 58.4mm) and just 1.6mm in January (average 48.0mm). Wagga Wagga (southern NSW) had 24.8mm in December (average 46.4mm) and just 2.0mm in January (average 43.5mm). Launceston (northern TAS) had 17.4mm in December (average 47.3mm) and just 3.2mm in January (average 44.5mm). There were, of course, some areas, that had above-average or even exceptionally heavy January rainfall, such as the NSW South Coast and a small patch of the southwest Victorian coastline along the Great Ocean Road where cars were swept away in flash flooding on January 15. But the overall picture was dry, and the outlook remains that way for the immediate forecast period. Both Adelaide and Melbourne can expect no rainfall for the rest of this week, give or take the chance of a brief light shower in Melbourne. The short-term forecast is also dry for inland parts of the southeast, although there are signs of instability as the week progresses as tropical air pushes south. At this stage, the potential for rainfall associated with thunderstorms looks more likely for inland NSW than further south and west in SA and Vic.
02 Feb 2026, 9:15AM UTC
Pilbara tropical cyclone possible this weekend
A low pressure system currently causing heavy rain over the Northern Territory could develop into a tropical cyclone near the Pilbara coast later this week. The satellite images below show a tropical low spinning over the NT on Monday. This system has already caused heavy rain over the last few days, including the following totals during the 24 hours ending at 9am ACST on Monday: 154.2 mm at Bradshaw – wettest February day in 23 years of records 126.6 mm at Delamere – wettest day in 15 years 122.6 mm at Maningrida Airport – wettest day in 15 years Image: Visible satellite images captured on Monday, February 2, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Tropical cyclone threat increasing later this week The low is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone while it remains over land. However, forecast models indicate the system should move towards the west in the coming days and move off Western Australia’s Kimberley coast later this week, most likely around Friday. Once it moves offshore, the low pressure system has a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it draws energy from the warm water to the north of WA. The Bureau of Meteorology gives this system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on the weekend as it tracks in a westerly direction to the north of the Pilbara district. Modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts gives stronger odds of cyclone development, with a 60 to 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will be located within a 300 km radius of the Pilbara coast at some point between Saturday and Monday. Image: Probability that a tropical cyclone will pass within a 300 km radius within a 48-hour window of 8am AWST on February 8, 2026. Source: ECMWF. Heavy rain and flooding to hit several states Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical cyclone later this week, a broad area of the NT and northern WA will be impacted by heavy rain and flooding between now and Friday while the system is still a tropical low. Moisture associated with the low will also fuel daily rain and thunderstorm activity over large areas of northern and eastern Australia this week. Flood watches have been issued for parts of the NT, Queensland and WA’s Kimberley district due to the rain that’s expected to fall during the remainder of this week. Severe thunderstorm warnings may also be issued throughout the week as storms start to become more widespread. Check the latest warnings in your area for the most up to date information over the coming week. Anyone living in the Pilbara should have a tropical cyclone plan ready, and monitor the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings for more information.
02 Feb 2026, 12:13AM UTC
Sub-zero summer minimums in four states
Temperatures dropped well below zero overnight in Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and the ACT, just days after one of southeastern Australia’s most intense heatwaves in recorded history. Even several South Australian towns plummeted towards zero overnight, after the mercury soared to 50°C at two SA locations late last week. The lowest temperature recorded in SA on Monday morning was 0.8°C at Coonawarra in the state's east. In the four states where temperatures fell below zero on Monday morning, the lowest recorded temperatures were: VIC: Mt Hotham -3.7°C NSW: Perisher -2.1°C ACT: Mt Ginini -2.0°C TAS: kunanyi/Mt Wellington -1.0°C What caused the unseasonable chill? A polar airmass pushed into Tasmania during Sunday, delivering showers and highland snowfalls to our southernmost state. Image: 12 hour combined radar and satellite loop over SE Australia from the evening of Sunday, January 31, 2026 into the morning of Monday, February 1. The airmass continued to surge northwards but by the time it reached the southeast mainland on Sunday afternoon and evening, it had largely dried out. While the loop above shows rain and storm activity in the warm northwesterly flow ahead of the cold front, it also illustrates that very little moisture accompanied the cool change on the mainland. The rapidly drying airmass is what helped temperatures drop so low overnight. And it could have been even colder if winds had not remained strong and gusty across the southeast, preventing further radiational cooling in valley locations. A run of clear days with cool nights should set in for the first half of the week across most of the areas mentioned. Tuesday morning will again be relatively cool by summer standards, but not as cold as Monday morning.