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Broad areas of instability bring showers and storms to Qld, the NT's north and south, central and eastern WA, and SA's west and north, extending rain to SA's south. A cold front brings gusty showers and highland snow to Tas.
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Today, 1:43AM UTC
Warm blob of water increasing tropical cyclone potential near northern Australia
Sea surface temperatures exceeding 31°C off the coast of northern Australia are increasing the likelihood of early-season tropical cyclone activity, with hints of the season’s first tropical cyclone coming as early as next week. Tropical cyclones require sea surface temperature of 26.5°C or warmer to develop, with higher ocean temperatures providing more energy for cyclones to gain strength. Water temperatures to the north of Australia are currently sitting around 1-2°C above average for this time of year, with sea surface temperatures as high as 31°C to the west of the Top End and north of the Kimberley. Image: Sea surface temperatures near Australia on November 11. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The blob of warm water to the northwest of Darwin ranks in the top 10 percent of historical records for this time of year, meaning the ocean is primed to support tropical cyclone development in the coming weeks. Some forecast models suggest that a tropical cyclone could develop over this area of warm water next week. The Bureau of Meteorology’s official 7-day tropical cyclone forecast gives a low chance of a cyclone forming as early as Tuesday. Image: 7-day tropical cyclone forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology. Modelling from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also hints at growing tropical cyclone potential over the pool of warm water towards the end of next week. The map below shows that the ECMWF model is predicting a 20 to 30% chance of a tropical cyclone activity west of the Top End on Friday, November 21. Image: Tropical cyclone potential near Australia late next week. The colours on the map represent the likelihood that a tropical cyclone will pass within 300 km of that location within 48 hours of 11pm AEDT on Friday, November 21. Source: ECMWF Another factor that adds weight to the increasing potential for early-season tropical cyclone activity next week will be a tropical atmospheric wave passing to the north of Australia. This wave, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), should cause an increase of cloud and thunderstorm activity near northern Australia next week. This enhanced storminess can help create low pressure systems that can deepen to become tropical cyclones. While there is still only a low chance of a tropical cyclone forming near Australia next week, anyone living in northern Australia should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings. The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30 and the first tropical cyclone to form this year will be named Fina.
12 Nov 2025, 6:12AM UTC
Australia on 'Aurora Alert' with severe geomagnetic storm in progress
The aurora australis could be visible from large areas of Australia on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a severe geomagnetic storm disrupts Earth’s magnetic field. The Bureau of Meteorology’s Space Weather Service (SWS)issued an ‘aurora alert’ on Wednesday afternoon, an advisory that only gets issued when space weather activity that is favourable for viewing aurora is currently in progress. The aurora alert stated: “Severe geomagnetic storm in progress. Aurora may be observed during local nighttime hours in good observing conditions at regions as far equatorward as middle latitudes.” The geomagnetic storm that is expected to cause Wednesday night’s aurora australis was caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun earlier this week. While it’s difficult to anticipate the impact a CME will have on Earth ahead of time, the influence of this event has already started to occur, and it is causing a severe geomagnetic storm. Image: Aurora australis seen from Inverloch, Vic in 2024. Source: @tompasco / Instagram. The strength of a geomagnetic storm is measured using the G-scale, which goes from G1 to G5, with G5 being the strongest level on the scale. According to the Bureau’s SWS, a G4 storm was underway on Wednesday afternoon and conditions could reach G5 strength on Wednesday night. G4 geomagnetic storms are capable of causing the aurora to become visible in central NSW. The SWS says that under G4 conditions, “bright auroras will be visible at unusually low latitudes, including dark-sky locations near Sydney and Perth.” If G5 conditions occur on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, the aurora could even become visible in parts of Qld and the NT. Fortunately for Australian aurora hunters, a high pressure system will keep skies clear over large parts of the country on Wednesday night. You can find more information about space weather and the aurora australis on the Bureau’s SWS website.
12 Nov 2025, 12:27AM UTC
Coldest November morning on record for parts of SE Australia
Unseasonably cold temperatures sent shivers across southeastern Australia on Wednesday morning, with Canberra one of many places that registered their coldest November morning on record. A frigid air mass lingering in the wake of a cold front combined with relatively light winds and clear skies on Tuesday night to send temperatures plummeting across southeastern Australia. Image: Satellite images showing the cold front pushing north along Australia’s east coast on Wednesday morning. By the early hours of Wednesday, temperatures had plunged around 10 to 12°C below average for a November morning, with parts of Vic, NSW, the ACT and SA registering their lowest November temperatures on record. Image: Modelled temperature anomaly over Australia at 5am AEDT on Wednesday, November 12, 2025. The darker blue and pink shading over southeastern Australia shows that temperatures were about 6 to 12°C below average for this time of year. Source: TropicalTidbits.com Canberra’s minimum of -2.3°C early on Wednesday was about 12°C below average and the city’s lowest November temperature on record, beating its previous November record of -1.8°C from 1967. This was cold enough for frost to form. Wednesday morning’s wintry chill also produced new November daily minimum temperature records in: Orange, NSW: -2.0°C (previous record -1.7°C) Mudgee, NSW: -0.1°C (previous record 0.2°C) Wangaratta, Vic: -1.3°C (previous record 0.1°C) Renmark, SA: 1.9°C (previous record 2.3°C) Mildura also had its coldest November morning since 1912 after the mercury dipped to 1.6°C shortly before 7am on Wednesday. Looking ahead, a series of cold fronts will continue to bring periods of abnormally cold weather in parts of southern and southeastern Australia over the coming week. These fronts will help prevent any extreme late-spring heat in the country’s south through the middle of November.