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Moist and unstable onshore winds are generating showers over northeast NSW and southeast Qld. A trough and a cold front bring rain to southwest WA and southern SA. Moist winds bring showers to Tas. High pressure maintains dry conditions elsewhere.
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Today, 12:30AM UTC
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has gone negative – what this means for Australia
Plenty of Sydney sunshine and heavy rain and snow in Tasmania will be some of the impacts caused this week by a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) that has just developed in the Southern Hemisphere. What is the Southern Annular Mode? The SAM is an index that reflects changes in the strength and position of a westerly wind belt encircling Antarctica. These westerly winds flow between Australia and Antarctica throughout the year, carrying cold fronts and low pressure systems from west to east. The SAM fluctuates between neutral, positive and negative phases throughout the year: A neutral SAM occurs when the westerly winds are in a normal position for that time of year. When the westerly wind belt strengthens and contracts southward towards Antarctica, the SAM is in a positive phase. When the westerlies slacken and expand further north towards Australia, the SAM is in a negative phase. Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which take months to develop, the SAM can switch between positive and negative phases in a matter of days. Image: Mean 850 hPa wind speed during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter (June to August). Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org What is the SAM doing now? The SAM was recently in a prolonged positive phase between late May and early July, with the index becoming extremely positive in June. This strong positive SAM phase contributed to a lacklustre start to the 2026 snow season in the Australian Alps. The recent positive SAM phase ended around July 9, and the index has continued to drop since then. Over the weekend, the SAM index dropped to -1.83 on Saturday, which is the lowest value since December last year. Forecast models suggest this negative SAM phase should persist for the rest of this week and possibly until the end of July. Image: Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index between November 1, 2025, and July 18, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. At this time of year, a negative SAM usually causes more winter storm systems over southern Australia and often enhances drier westerly winds over eastern Australia. Tasmania will feel the influence of the negative SAM this week when a powerful low pressure system blasts the state with wind, rain, hail and snow between Wednesday and Friday. This is likely to include low-level snow on Thursday as frigid polar air causes temperatures to plummet across the state. The temperature in Hobart will feel lower than 1°C for most of Thursday. Image: Forecast accumulated precipitation over Australia during the next seven days, showing heave falls in western Tasmania. Source: Weatherzone. Showers will also affect other areas of southern Australia this week, including Victoria, South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia and New South Wales. By contrast, eastern NSW will see a run of dry weather under the influence of westerly winds. Sydney could remain completely dry all week with maximum temperatures reaching 19 to 21°C on most days. This is several degrees above the July monthly average of 16.5°C.
20 Jul 2026, 7:26AM UTC
Low-level snow coming to Tasmania this week
Snow could fall in higher parts of Hobart later this week as a polar air mass causes temperatures to plummet across Tasmania. A pool of very cold air will sweep across Tasmania between Wednesday and Friday this week, driven by a complex low pressure system passing to the south of Australia. The coldest part of this air mass, which originated near the fringe of Antarctica, will pass over the state on Thursday. In addition to the cold air – which will send temperatures below 0°C over large parts of the state – the wintry system will also blast Tasmania with powerful west to southwesterly winds. This will create teeth-chattering wind chill and bring damaging to destructive wind gusts in some parts of the state. Image: Forecast wind gusts at 4pm AEST on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. While Hobart’s maximum temperature is forecast to reach 10°C on Thursday, wind chill will make it feel lower than 0°C at times during the day. There is some uncertainty regarding how low snow will fall from this system, with indications that it could drop to around 400 metres above sea level on Wednesday and 200 metres on Thursday. There is even a chance of a few flakes reaching sea level in the state’s south on Thursday. Image: Forecast 850 hPa wind temperature at 10pm AEST on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. You can check the Weatherzone app to see how low temperatures are predicted to get across Tasmania later this week, along with the latest severe weather warnings during this system.
19 Jul 2026, 4:08AM UTC
Cold mornings and persistent fog chills southeastern Australia
A strong high pressure system has delivered some of the coldest weather in years across parts of Australia, with many residents reaching for an extra blanket overnight as freezing mornings gripped the southeast, as well as unusually chilly conditions extended far north into Western Australia and the Northern Territory under a very dry atmosphere. Some locations recorded their coldest morning in years, including: Braidwood, NSW: -6.1°C (coldest in 3 years), Delegate, NSW: -6.1°C (nearly 3 years), Dum In Mirrie, NT: 12.8°C (2 years), Cape Fourcroy, NT: 13.3°C (2 years), Kalumburu, WA: 8.3°C (2 years), Strathalbyn, SA: 0.6°C (2 years). Image: Synoptic chart for Sunday, July 19, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The cold weather has been caused by a strong high pressure system sitting over southeastern Australia. High pressure overhead brings clear skies and light winds, allowing heat at the surface to effectively escape into space overnight. Normally, clouds act like a blanket by trapping some of the Earth's warmth, but with little cloud around, temperatures can fall rapidly after sunset. High pressure systems also provide ideal conditions for fog to form overnight. While morning fog usually rises and clears after sunrise, parts of inland Victoria remained shrouded in fog well into the afternoon yesterday, with similarly persistent fog likely again today. The fog blocked much of the sun's warmth, keeping temperatures low throughout the day. Image: Satellite image of a large fog patch lingering over inland parts of southeast Australia over the six hours to 4:00 pm AEST on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As a result, several Victorian locations recorded their coldest July day in decades, including: Stawell: 6.9°C (coldest day on record, 30 years) Longerenong: 8.1°C (24 years), Horsham: 8.1°C (22 years), Edenhope: 9.1°C (10 years), Walpeup: 9.0°C (6 years), Charlton: 8.2°C (6 years), Hopetoun Airport: 9.4°C (6 years), Swan Hill Aero: 8.9°C (6 years), Warracknabeal Airport: 7.4°C (6 years). Fog and low cloud is once again shielding much of northern Victoria from the sun this Sunday, bringing a second bitterly cold day in a row. The high pressure system is expected to keep conditions mostly dry and settled across southeastern Australia over the coming days, with light winds bringing further cold mornings and allowing fog to form and linger in some areas.