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Monsoonal flow into a deep low is bringing heavy rain & storms to north Qld & north NT while TC Hayley is slowly approaching the western Kimberley. An unstable airmass over inland WA is triggering showers & storms. Dry & mostly clear for southeast Aust under high pressure.
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29 Dec 2025, 11:51PM UTC
Your capital city New Year’s Eve forecasts
With 2026 almost upon us, here are the New Year's Eve and New Year’s Day forecasts for each Australian capital city. Melbourne Melbourne’s maximums have been on a see-saw this week, with a pair of unseasonably cool 17-degree days on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, then 35°C on Monday, December 29. The final day of 2025 will be cool again with a maximum around 19°C, followed by a high near 23°C on Thursday to ring in the new year. New Year’s Eve will be cool with southerly winds if you’re out and about, but the good news is there’s only a very slight chance of a shower. Sydney After a run of searing mid-December heat (including a high of 42.2°C on December 19), Sydney has seen a cool spell since Christmas, including a maximum of just 18.7°C on Boxing Day. The final day of 2025 should reach 26°C, with mild and cloudy conditions prevailing as the sun sets. There's the chance of a shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, but with luck, any rain will be brief enough not to dampen the spirits of those attending the world's most spectacular New Year’s Eve fireworks display. Expect a mostly dry day with a relatively cool top of 24°C on New Year’s Day. Image: Sydney turns it on every year for New Year's Eve. Source: iStock/Saud Nassir. Brisbane The flooding rains in the north are a world away from southeast Queensland at the moment, and Brisbane might just be the pick of the capitals on New Year’s Eve, with clear, warm conditions after a Wednesday maximum of 32°C. New Year’s Day looks cloudier with a chance of showers and a maximum of 30°C. Canberra The national capital has had an unseasonably chilly string of nights, with a week of single-digit minimums from December 24 to 30 inclusive (December’s average minimum is 12°C). But Canberra is at last warming up, and after a maximum around 29°C for the final day of the year, it should be a pleasant New Year’s Eve in terms of temperature, with a minimum of 14°C expected the following morning. The only issue is the chance of rain. Showers and even a thunderstorm are likely in the afternoon and early evening of December 31, but with luck, they’ll be gone by dark so the New Year’s Eve fireworks aren’t spoiled. Image: Predicted maximums across Australia on December 31, 2025, according to the ECMWF model. Hobart Cool and cloudy for New Year’s Eve is the short version of the Hobart forecast. While the December 31 high of 19°C won't exactly be warm, most locals won’t argue after a run of four days from December 24 to 27 when Hobart’s maximum failed to top 16.5°C. The good news is it should be dry for the evening festivities. New Year’s Day should be a touch warmer with a top of 21°C and also mostly dry. Adelaide After almost hitting 40°C on December 29, cool southeasterly winds will restrict the maximum to around 25°C in the SA capital on the final two days of 2025. While relatively cool by local summer standards, New Year’s Eve skies should be clear, making for pleasant conditions outdoors. New Year’s Day looks a little warmer with an expected top of 29°C. Image: Fireworks over Adelaide. Source: iStock/moisseyev. Perth Like Brisbane, Perth should be just about spot on for outdoors celebrations. After a December 31 maximum of 35°C, light winds and clear skies should make for a perfect evening out. The new year kicks off with almost identical conditions, with another two days of expected 35-degree maximums on January 1 and 2. Darwin There's virtually always the chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm at this time of year in the Top End, and New Year’s Eve 2025/26 in Darwin will be no different. Darwin’s rainfall for December 2025 is currently tracking at about 50mm above the monthly average of 254.9mm, with rain recorded across 19 days. Yet December 28 and 29 were rain-free. While there’s a chance that dry conditions could continue through to the end of 2025, moisture from the remnants of TC Hayley (currently a severe tropical cyclone off the coastline of northwest WA) could revamp the monsoon. Expect maximums around 33°C on both December 31 and January 1.
29 Dec 2025, 12:25AM UTC
Metre of rain possible as 'landphoon’ lashes Queensland
Relentless Queensland rain continues this Monday morning, with numerous flood warnings in place, including a major flood warning for the Flinders River in the state’s Gulf Country. Rainfall totals in the hundreds of millimetres have already been received at multiple locations, with the strong likelihood that some spots could receive a metre of rain (1000mm) by the time this event is finished. To put that in perspective, that’s the rough equivalent of Brisbane’s annual average rainfall of 1054.8mm. The ongoing deluge is being caused by a large, complex monsoonal low pressure system which some meteorologists call by its unofficial title of a "landphoon". Image: 12-hour combined radar and water vapour loop showing the relentless influx of tropical moisture generating extremely heavy rain in two distinct parts of northern Qld from the evening of Sunday, December 28 to Monday morning, December 29, 2025. "A 'landphoon' is a large low pressure system with strong winds which resembles a tropical cyclone over land," Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard explains. "The low pressure system forms embedded in the monsoon trough and has winds wrapping into it from both hemispheres, then spinning around it. There’s a huge convergence of tropical air that leads to flooding rainfall and strong, gusty winds." Rainfall in Queensland from Sunday through to Monday morning was concentrated in two main areas: The North Tropical Coast and Tablelands forecast district, where 24-hours totals to 9am Monday included: 369mm at South Mission Beach, about two hours south of Cairns 245mm at Bingil Bay, just north of South Mission Beach 228m at Euramo, not far inland from Tully The Gulf Country and North West forecast districts, where 24-hours totals to 9am Monday included: 313mm at Oakland Park, a large cattle station (Gulf Country) 295mm at Fish Hole Creek (Gulf Country) 238mm at Miranda Downs Station (Gulf Country) 103mm at Snake Creek near Cloncurry (North West) Many of Monday’s 24-hour rainfall observations for the three forecast districts mentioned were daily records for December. And they came on the back of some records the previous day, as Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly wrote on Sunday. The fact that cattle stations have received so much rain is of particular concern. A similar event in February 2019 caused devastating stock losses totalling hundreds of thousands across Queensland's north. One of the worst affected areas in that 2019 event was Cloncurry Shire Council. The town of Cloncurry received approximately 450mm in the first five days of the month in the 2019 event. Cloncurry has already received almost 300mm over the past six days in the current event, and further heavy rain is expected there for the next two to three days. It’s worth noting that January and February tend to be much wetter on average for Queensland’s Gulf Country and North West, making this December deluge remarkable not just for rainfall totals, but for its timing relatively early in the wet season.
28 Dec 2025, 7:35PM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Hayley forms northwest of the Kimberley
Tropical Cyclone Hayley has formed northwest of the Kimberley early on Monday morning, with residents and businesses readying themselves for heavy rainfall and strong winds. Hayley became the third system to be named within the Australian region early on Monday morning, located approximately 535 km northwest of Broome, WA. The other two systems to have been named were Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina in November and Tropical Cyclone Grant in December. Video: Satellite imagery on Sunday, December 28, showing the tropical low that would become Hayley developing to the northwest of the Kimberley. Source: Weatherzone. Current forecast track and intensity could see Hayley become a category 2 or 3 system later today or on Tuesday, less than 200 km north of Broome. However, unfavourable atmospheric conditions expected closer to the Kimberley coast could see this system weakening before making a potential landfall near Cape Leveque. Damaging to destructive wind gusts could reach 140 km/h along the coastline north of Broome late on Tuesday. Image: Forecast track for Tropical Cyclone Hayley as seen on the Weatherzone Layers page. Source: Weatherzone. Even if Hayley weakens below tropical cyclone intensity, heavy flooding rainfall is expected for parts of the Kimberley as the system tracks inland. Some areas could receive 200-300mm of rain in 24-36 hours, increasing the risk of flash flooding cutting off vital transport routes and roads. Image: Forecast 3-day rainfall accumulations according to the GFS computer model. Source: Weatherzone. Keep track of the latest warnings and tropical cyclone advisories on the Weatherzone Warning and Tropical Cyclone pages.