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A strong high pressure ridge is directing showers over the east coast. A weak upper-level trough brings patchy rain and isolated storms to SA, western NSW and western Vic. Gusty showers are trailing a cold front and trough over southern WA.
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Today, 2:58AM UTC
Rain spreading across inland Australia
Rain has begun to fall across parts of inland South Australia, Victoria and western New South Wales, with moderate falls likely by the end of the working week. Heavier rain will also develop in northwest Tasmania from Wednesday evening through to Friday as a series of troughs crosses the state. Let’s take a look at the origins of the inland moisture, as well as some of the rainfall totals already observed with this system, and how much rain is yet to come (and where). Moisture feed from the Indian Ocean Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies across Australia on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Source: BoM. The inland rain falling on Tuesday is being driven by a feed of tropical moisture all the way from the waters off northwestern WA, where sea surface temperatures (beyond the immediate coastal fringe) are above-average for this time of year. A northwest cloudband has formed across Australia. While these cloud features often look spectacular on the satellite image, they don't always deliver large amounts of rainfall across their entire length. However, rain is falling in some eastern inland regions due to a trough over western NSW. How much rain has fallen so far? Image: Satellite image over Australia at 11 am (AEST) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. In the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday, the highest inland rainfall reading associated with Indian Ocean moisture and the northwest cloudband was of 21.2 mm at Braemar, a South Australian cattle station about 260 km NE of Adelaide. Numerous other inland locations saw totals above 10 mm. The heaviest rainfall totals anywhere in Australia in the 24 hours to 9 am Tuesday were along the east coast, where totals reached around 40 mm on parts of the NSW Mid North Coast and 30 mm on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast. This rain was due to an onshore flow from the Tasman and Coral seas, enhanced by above-average sea surface temperatures, especially off the NSW coast. Where will rain fall in coming days? Image: Rain radar loop for the four hours to midday (AEST) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, for parts of eastern Australia's inland. Source: Weatherzone. Rainfall totals up to 20 mm or slightly higher could be recorded across large parts of inland Victoria and southern inland NSW in coming days, with showers also likely in central and northern inland NSW. As mentioned at the top of this story, northwest Tasmania looks set for the heaviest falls, with Wednesday looking particularly soggy for the far northwest of the state, with 24-hour totals of around 40 mm possible. All of the southeastern capitals should see at least a few showers during the rest of the working week, but the rain should be heaviest on or west of the Great Dividing Range. The role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in inland rain events fed by tropical moisture Image: Weekly IOD index values up until Sunday, August 16, 2026. Source: BoM. When discussing northwest cloudbands, it’s always worth mentioning the current status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – a key climate driver which influences daily weather across large parts of Australia. The IOD is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between western and eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. With a positive IOD, cooler-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean typically bring below-average rain and higher temperatures to central and southern Australia. Conversely, the warmer-than-average waters in eastern parts of the tropical Indian Ocean during a negative IOD typically bring above-average rain and cooler days to large parts of Australia. The IOD is currently in a neutral phase. So you can’t directly attribute this week’s inland rain to the current phase of the IOD. But it’s not hindering this event.
17 Aug 2026, 9:07AM UTC
Strengthening El Niño could make 2026 Earth’s warmest year on record
El Niño is strengthening so quickly that it could make 2026 become Earth’s warmest year on record. According to new data from Berkeley Earth, there is a 69 % chance that 2026 will become the warmest year on record and a 30 % chance that it will come in at second place behind 2024. This outlook is a significant increase from the previous month, when Berkeley Earth was only giving 2026 a 12 % chance of beating 2024. The shift in their outlook is due to last month being the second warmest July on record for global temperatures. Another key factor is the rapid pace at which El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is giving more confidence to computer models that are suggesting it will become the strongest El Niño on record. Image: Global average temperatures in July, according to Berkeley Earth’s dataset. Source: Berkely Earth. Because El Niño is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, it’s presence typically increased global average temperatures. Moreover, stronger El Niño events have a stronger warming influence on the global climate. Despite the first six months of this year ranking as the third warmest January-to-June on record, the presence of a very strong El Niño in the second half of the year should push the annual average temperature into second or first place by the end of December. But the influence of this record-breaking El Niño won’t end there. The ongoing effects of El Niño’s vast ocean warmth are likely to make 2027 even warmer than 2026. It is common for the year following El Niño’s formation to set a new global heat record. This happened in 2024, 2016 and 1998, which all followed El Niño and became record-breaking warm years at the time. According to Berkeley Earth, “because El Niño’s global impact lags its Pacific peak, an even larger warming influence – and a strong chance of a further record – is expected in 2027.”
17 Aug 2026, 1:20AM UTC
Unusually warm winter week across the southeast
With two weeks left of the 2026 Australia winter, springlike warmth will spread across large parts of the most heavily populated corner of the country. While the coastal fringe of eastern Australia won’t feel particularly warm until the latter half of the week due to persistent showers with onshore winds, cities like Melbourne and Adelaide will come close to 20°C on Tuesday – with above-average maximums every other day this week. Even Hobart will come close to 20°C this week, with a top of 19°C on the cards for Wednesday (average August maximum 13.2°C) while Canberra can expect tops of 17°C or 18°C from Wednesday right through until Sunday (average August maximum 14.4°C). Because of the combination of a mild airmass and cloud, minimum temperatures are also likely to be relatively warm for winter across a broad area of the country for most of this week. Strong high pressure: the first ingredient for warmth Image: Synoptic chart for Australia at 10 am (AEST) on Monday, August 17, 2026, showing the strong high pressure system centred over Tasmania. Source: Weatherzone. A strong high pressure system was centred over Tasmania on Monday morning. The mean sea level pressure near the high’s centre exceeded 1041 hPa (hectopascals) in parts of Tasmania during the mid-morning. The BoM states that “a typical high is around 1020 hPa or higher”. So when the mean sea level pressure is up in the 1040s, you’re looking at a very strong high. Indeed, it was only a month ago that Australia registered a new provisional record for the highest mean sea level pressure, with a reading of 1044.5 hPa at the small central Tasmanian town of Ouse. Today’s high pressure system is not far off that. How the strong high is fuelling the unseasonable warmth Just like the above-mentioned record high pressure system in July, today’s high is also located further south than is typical for this time of year. That means it’s blocking influxes of cold air from reaching Tasmania or the eastern mainland. The high is also helping to funnel mild maritime air onshore, as winds circulate anti-clockwise around it. Already, Melbourne and Adelaide are under the influence of northeasterly winds which will swing more northerly as the week progresses. And as any local knows, northerlies usually mean warmer-than-average temperatures in any season. While the high will drift east over the Tasman Sea during the week, it will deflect the cold front which is currently sweeping through SW Western Australia this Monday, pushing any significantly cold air well south of the continent’s southeast. Not a great week for the snowfields Last week we wrote that the Australian snow season had neared the one-metre mark in depth at higher elevations, but that warm weather this week would likely erode the snowpack. That warm spell is now upon us, with maximums expected to reach as high as 6°C on at least two days this week at Thredbo Top Station – Australia's highest weather station at an elevation of 1957 metres. If you’re reading this in northern Australia and six degrees seems like a cold maximum, remember that everything is relative in weather, and that the average August maximum for Thredbo Top Station is just 0.6°C. The good news is that the 2026 snow season still has scope for improvement, with early signs of a snowy system next week. As ever, check the latest forecasts, snow cams and much more on the Weatherzone snow page.