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Cold southwest winds bring showers across southeast Aust and falling as snow over the higher Alpine region. An active region of low pressure brings storms across inland west and northwest WA. A tropical low north of the NT is driving showers and storms across the Top End.
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Today, 2:27AM UTC
High tropical cyclone risk near Australia this week – rare November landfall possible
A tropical low currently developing over the Timor Sea has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone later this week, with a possibility of landfall somewhere in the NT or WA. The satellite images below show cloud circulating around the developing tropical low on Monday morning. Image: Visible satellite images showing a developing tropical low over the Timor Sea on Monday morning. This system has already caused heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western Top End in the last couple of days, including 228 mm in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin, which was its heaviest rain in a decade. The low pressure system is in an environment that should help it gain strength over the next few days, with plenty of warm sea surface temperatures to provide energy and favourable atmospheric conditions to facilitate its intensification. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives the system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Wednesday and a high risk from Friday. Image: Map showing a ‘high’ risk of a tropical cyclone near the NT’s Top End on Saturday, November 22, 2025. At this stage, the centre of the system is likely to be located somewhere inside the brow-shaded ellipsis at 11pm AEDT on Saturday. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While there is some uncertainty regarding the prospective tropical cyclone’s future path, most forecast models suggest that it will move towards the northeast between Monday and Wednesday while gaining strength. Some models predict that it will then turn back towards the south or southwest from Thursday or Friday, potentially approaching the coast of the Top End, Tiwi Islands or Kimberley towards the end of the week or early next week. At this early stage in the system’s development, it is difficult to predict exactly where it will move and how strong it will get. However, there is enough consensus between forecast models for residents in the Top End and Kimberley to pay close attention to the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories for the most up-to-date information over the coming week. Prepare now and make sure you have an emergency plan in place. Is this early in the season for a tropical cyclone? Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from November to April. However, we don’t usually see many tropical cyclones near the Australian coastline this early in the season. Only four tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Australian mainland in November: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2013) Severe Tropical Cyclone Quenton (1983) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ines (1973) Tropical Cyclone 01U, also called the ‘Broome Cyclone’ (1910) If this week’s system does become a tropical cyclone, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina.
Today, 12:30AM UTC
Extreme fire danger and snow on the same day in NSW
It's a day of dramatic weather contrasts this Monday for residents of Australia's most populous state, as a spring cold front sweeps northwards through New South Wales. Cool air arrived in the state’s south overnight with snow recorded in the Snowy Mountains for the fourth time this November. Image: The top of Thredbo on the evening of Sunday, November 16, 2025, with remnant snow patches from winter (previous November snowfalls have already melted). Source: Thredbo.com.au. Image: The top of Thredbo this Monday morning after the latest cold front, with fresh snow on the ground and snow sticking to the lens of the snow cam. Source: Thredbo.com.au. Ahead of the cold front, strong westerly winds gusted to as much as 96 km/h at Cabramurra in the Snowy Mountains (winds were likely even stronger at Thredbo Top Station, where the weather station was offline). Strong and gusty winds then pushed through to the east coast overnight, with gusts exceeding 70 km/h recorded in many forecast districts on Monday morning. While the airmass in the wake of the cold front is relatively mild, the combination of strong winds and dry air has resulted in high fire danger in most forecast districts, with an extreme rating issued for the Greater Hunter – even though no location in that particular region is expecting a Monday maximum beyond the mid-to-high 20s. Image: Fire danger in NSW on Monday, November 17, 2025, with extreme fire danger and a total fire ban for the Greater Hunter region around Newcastle. Source: NSW RFS. Normally, we associate days of extreme fire danger (or the highest rating of catastrophic) with temperatures soaring into the mid-to-high 30s or even the 40s, but days like today can be just as dangerous for grassfires and bushfires without the extreme heat. Meanwhile the Southern Hemisphere remains in a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which means the dynamic cold weather systems that circulate the globe in the Southern Ocean tend to be pushed northwards towards Australia. READ MORE: Southern Annular Mode - What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia? This does not mean that southern Australia will automatically keep receiving unseasonably cool weather, but it does increase the likelihood, as we have seen in recent weeks. Due to the frequent unseasonable cold fronts this November, Melbourne’s running monthly maximum temperature is about 2°C down on its long-term average, with November 8 being the city’s coldest November day in 80 years, when the mercury reached just 12.7°C. Melbourne should struggle its way up to a maximum of 17°C this Monday (5°C below the long-term monthly average maximum) while Sydney should reach 26°C (which would actually be a couple of degrees above average although it will feel cooler with those westerly winds).
15 Nov 2025, 11:03PM UTC
November heat, then storms on the way for western WA
A taste of summer is on the way for parts of the west coast, as hot northeasterly winds drag heat from the western interior down to the west coast early in the week. Heat will then be followed by a multi-day outbreak of thunderstorms for western and southwest WA. The culprit of the incoming hot weather is a deepening trough over the Pilbara which will extend over the Gascoyne today. By tomorrow, the trough will extend offshore from the Midwest coast, allowing hot winds from the interior to draw heat to near coastal areas as far south as Perth. Image: forecast maximum temperatures on Mon 17th As it stands, temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 30s across large parts of western WA on Monday. Perth is looking at a forecast of 35°C, and Geraldton is forecast to reach 40°C, while temperatures exceeding 40°C are possible for inland Gascoyne and Central West. While these temperatures are not unusual for summer, for some areas this will be the hottest day since last autumn. The increased heat is also expected to bring elevated fire danger, with Extreme Fire Danger ratings expected for several districts in the Central West forecast district on Monday. Image: WA Fire Danger Ratings on Monday 17th. Source: Bureau of Meteorology From Monday, the trough will also gain some moisture, creating the potential for thunderstorm activity across western and southwestern parts of the state during the week. Thunderstorms are most likely for Gascoyne and Central West forecast district on Monday, extending south and inland as the week progresses. These storms carry the potential to bring damaging wind gusts exceeding 90km/h. Image: 3 hourly precipitations to 5pm WST Tue 18th according to ECMWF Sat 12Z, overlaid with GFS thunderstorm risk Perth’s best chances for thunderstorms look to be on Wednesday and Thursday, with storms firing up towards the south coast by the end of the week. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall to Saturday evening for southern and western WA according to ECMWF Sat 12Z Showers and storms continue to be possible over western and southern WA over the weekend, although cricketing fans will be hoping that the wet weather stays away from Perth for the commencement of the Ashes Series this Friday.