Australian Weather

12 Jan 2026, 7:00AM UTC

Satellite imagery clearly shows smoke from Victoria’s bushfires, as at least 12 major blazes still rage in our southernmost mainland state. As the images clearly show, the smoke is being blown southwards into Bass Strait. This might seem counterintuitive to some people in southern Victoria, who experienced relatively cool surface-level southerly winds for most of Monday. However, winds at slightly higher levels of the atmosphere (above about 1800m) are blowing across Victoria from a predominantly northerly aspect, pushing the smoke south as it ascends. Image: 850hpa temperature and winds for Victoria on the afternoon of Monday, January 12, 2026. 850hpa corresponds to approximately 1500m above sea level. The “feathers” on the wind barbs (small lines sticking out from the longer lines) are positioned at the end of the barb from which the wind is blowing. What is the current state of the fires? As much as 400,000 hectares has now burned in the state’s biggest fire emergency since the Black Summer, with one person tragically killed and more than 350 homes or buildings destroyed. The fatality occurred in the Longwood Fire, where a Watch and Act warning level remains in place. This is the middle level of the Victorian CFA’s three warning levels. The Longwood fire has covered the largest area of any bushfire in the current emergency, and a large patch of scorched countryside appears to be visible on satellite imagery, approximately halfway between Mansfield and Seymour, just south of the actual town of Longwood. Image: Satellite view of the Victorian bushfires at 4pm (AEDT) on Monday, December 12, 2026. The fires have also spawned pyrocumulus clouds like this one pictured below. Pyrocumulus clouds are large storm clouds caused by rising hot air from bushfire flames and smoke. Image: Bushfire smoke and pyrocumulus cloud captured from Holbrook, NSW, just north of the Victorian border, on January 11, 2026. Source: Satch & Co Gallery (@satchandco gallery on Instagram). Is any rain coming to provide relief in Victoria? As mentioned in our story about the wet week in store for eastern Australia, significant rain will make its way to Victoria’s East Gippsland region, where some fires are not yet fully under control. Parts of southern Victoria including Melbourne should also see some showers on Thursday. Away from eastern Victoria and the southern coastline, the likelihood of meaningful rain this week dissipates. A few isolated storms could occur on Thursday in the state’s north, however no widespread statewide soaking lies on the immediate horizon.

12 Jan 2026, 12:41AM UTC

Large parts of eastern Australia can expect a week of significant rainfall. For tropical Queensland, this will be a continuation of recent wet weather, while for areas south of the tropics along the coast and adjacent ranges, it will mark a break in the pattern of relatively dry weather. The rain that is currently falling, or that is due to fall, can be broadly separated into three distinct events. Ongoing rainfall from ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji drifts south Extremely heavy rain has fallen over the past day or two in Queensland's Central Coast and Whitsundays forecast district (centred around Mackay) with heavy rainfall extending to the Central Highlands and Coalfields district, as well as adjacent inland areas. To 9am Monday, some of the notable 24-hour rainfall totals included: 216.5mm at Clermont Bridge and 203.2mm at nearby Clermont Airport. This daily total is more than double the monthly average for a town located some four hours inland from Rockhampton. 218mm at St Lawrence in the Capricornia forecast district. 150.2mm at Mackay Airport after 77.2mm the previous day. "We are seeing heavy rainfall in places like Emerald and Rockhampton this Monday due to the monsoonal flow wrapping around the low pressure system formed by ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji," Weatherzone metrologist Joel Pippard explains. Image: Chart showing precipitable water and mean sea level pressure, indicating how moisture is travelling from north of Australia into the Coral Sea and wrapping around the low in a clockwise direction, causing rain in inland Qld. Rainfall, possibly heavy at times, will push southwards into Brisbane on Monday and may extend into Tuesday, depending on the position of a coastal trough near the southeast Queensland coast. Onshore winds to soak NSW in second half of week Parts of the NSW coastline, including Sydney, are seeing drizzly rain this Monday, but heavier rain can be expected from Thursday into the weekend as a low forms near the NSW coast. Persistent easterly winds and abundant atmospheric moisture should ensure that Sydney gets its first decent soaking of the summer, after a very dry December with just 19mm in total (monthly average 77.7mm) and modest January rainfall totals to date. Widespread thunderstorms likely on Thursday A significant thunderstorm outbreak potentially covering most of Queensland, virtually the entire eastern half of NSW, and parts of Victoria, is on the cards for Thursday. According to Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard, all the ingredients for thunderstorm development should be in place, with plenty of moisture and atmospheric instability as a pool of cold upper air pushes north. Thursday will also be hot inland, with temperatures approaching 40°C in places like Dubbo, which means that NSW storms will likely develop in forecast districts like the Central West and North West Slopes and Plains – hundreds of kilometres west of the coast and adjacent ranges. Will there be rain relief for Victoria? Image: Predicted rainfall for SE Australia for the week ending Sunday, January 18, according to the ECMWF model. It’s difficult at this stage to predict how much of the eastern Australian rain due from midweek onwards will make its way south and east to Victoria. While Victoria’s East Gippsland region can expect significant totals around 15-30mm later this week, early indications are that only lighter falls in the range of 10mm or less will make it to some of the worst fire-affected areas in central, western and northeastern Victoria.