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A deep low and associated fronts crossing the Southern Ocean are bringing showers, a few storms and very gusty winds to southern WA, SA and Vic, with light showers in Tas. High pressure over the interior and north is maintaining dry conditions.
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Today, 1:47AM UTC
135 km/h winds batter WA, with SA and Victoria next in line
Damaging winds will hit parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria on Monday as a large low pressure system passes to the south of Australia. The powerful system will then cause wet and windy weather to continue over the country’s southeast through the middle of the week. Wild winds slam WA Ferocious winds brought down trees and cut power to tens of thousands of customers in WA’s west and southwest over the weekend. While wind and rain picked up on Saturday night with the arrival of a cold front, the strongest winds occurred late on Sunday as the low pressure system slammed into the state. Wind gusts reached up to 135 km/h at Cape Naturaliste and 133 km/h at Cape Leeuwin on Sunday evening. Other notable gusts from Sunday included: 120 km/h at Busselton Jetty 108 km/h at Jerdacuttup 107 km/h at Ravensthorpe 104 km/h at Garden Island 104 km/h at Mandurah and Mount Barker 100 km/h at Jandakot Airport 98 km/h at Dwellingup 93 km/h at Perth Airport Wind will ease in western areas of WA on Monday as the low moves further east. However, damaging wind gusts will continue to affect the state’s south, including the Eucla, South East Coastal and parts of Goldfields, South Coastal, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt districts. Rain and damaging winds spreading further east As the low pressure system moves further east, wet and windy weather will spread over southern and southeastern Australia during the next few days, impacting parts of SA, Vic, Tas, NSW and the ACT. Image: Forecast wind gusts at 1 pm AEST on Monday, June 1, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Damaging wind gusts are likely to affect parts of SA and Vic on Monday, possibly including Adelaide and areas near Melbourne. Damaging winds are also likely to spread into parts of NSW from Tuesday, most likely about the southern and central ranges. The large and slow-moving nature of the low pressure system will cause several days of rain across southern and southeastern Australia between Monday and Thursday. The heaviest falls from this system will occur in areas exposed to westerly component winds. Accumulated rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm are possible in southern, central and northeast Vic and southern NSW between Monday and Thursday. More widespread totals of 20 to 50 mm are possible in SA, Tas, Vic, NSW and the ACT over this four-day period. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next seven days, although most of this will fall between Monday and Thursday. Source: Weatherzone. There may be enough rain to cause flooding in parts of Vic and southern NSW this week, particularly in areas of the ranges that have potential for accumulated totals above 100 mm. Some of this week’s precipitation will also be falling as snow in the higher terrain of southeastern Australia, adding some much-needed natural snow to the ski slopes in the opening days of winter. With severe weather likely to affect multiple states in the coming days, be sure to check the latest forecasts and weather warnings for your area for the most up-to-date information.
30 May 2026, 11:20PM UTC
Bombing low hammers southwest WA as fierce winds worsen
A bombing low southwest of WA is now impacting broad areas of the state’s southwest, with conditions expected to worsen through Sunday. Severe weather warnings are current across southwest WA during Sunday for damaging to locally destructive winds, while coastal hazard warnings are in place for abnormally high tides and damaging surf along parts of the WA coast. Locally destructive gusts in excess of 125 km/h are possible southwest of a line from Lancelin to Albany, including Perth, during Sunday. As we wrote yesterday, this system has undergone explosive cyclogenesis, with models showing the low’s central pressure falling by an average of about 25 hPa in the 24 hours from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. This is well above the roughly 16 to 17 hPa threshold needed for a bombing low near 35–37°S. The system has several powerful ingredients, including an intense upper level jet, abnormally warm waters off parts of WA and a cold pool aloft helping create a sharp temperature contrast. Image. 6-hour Himawari visible satellite loop showing the bombing low spinning southwest of WA. Heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and significant winds are expected to continue across the southwest, including Perth, with conditions likely to worsen this afternoon and evening as the low and its associated cold front move through. Damaging surf may also cause coastal erosion and localised damage along exposed parts of the WA coast. The strongest WA wind gusts observed in the supplied data up to about 6am WST Sunday include: Cape Leeuwin: 117 km/h at 5:40am WST; Cape Naturaliste: 104 km/h at 6:00am WST; Busselton Jetty: 98 km/h at 3:04am WST; Garden Island HSF: 89 km/h at 6:00am WST; North Island: 87 km/h at 4:12am WST; Mandurah: 85 km/h at 5:30am WST; Swanbourne: 85 km/h at 2:08am WST; Dwellingup: 85 km/h at 9:30pm WST Saturday; Geraldton Airport: 83 km/h at 5:19am WST; Gooseberry Hill: 82 km/h at 1:07am WST. Rain has also been significant, with widespread falls of about 15 to 50 mm and locally higher totals in parts of WA since 9am Saturday to early Sunday morning. Notable rainfall totals since 9am Saturday include: Busselton Airport: 50.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 8 years; Manjimup: 43.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 21 years; North Island: 31.2 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 25 years; Bridgetown: 27.0 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 6 years; Geraldton Airport: 26.6 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 5 years; Cunderdin Airport: 23.4 mm to 5:30am WST Sunday, its highest May daily total in 27 years. Intense bursts of rain have also been recorded, with 10-minute rainfall data showing the following WA rates: Perth / Perth Stadium: 7.0 mm in 10 minutes at 12:50am WST Sunday; Perth / Perth Stadium: 12.0 mm in 10 minutes at 1:00am WST Sunday; Busselton: 6.2 mm in 10 minutes at 9:50pm WST Saturday; Busselton: 6.0 mm in 10 minutes at 10:20pm WST Saturday; Busselton: 5.2 mm in 10 minutes at 10:00pm WST Saturday. Manjimup Shire: 5.6 mm in 10 minutes at 11:30pm WST Saturday; The low should move away from WA during Monday, with the last of the strong winds likely affecting the southern coast. After that, the system will march east and bring a spell of wintry weather to SA, Vic, Tas and NSW through the late this week, including strong to damaging winds, heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and alpine snow. Please stay up to date with the latest warnings as this system continues to unfold.
30 May 2026, 4:18AM UTC
A "bombing low" is brewing off WA. Here’s what makes it dangerous
Explosive cyclogenesis is underway over the eastern Indian Ocean, where a rapidly deepening low pressure system is setting parts of southwest Western Australia up for a wild weekend of damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms and dangerous seas. Models show the low’s central pressure plunging by an average of about 25 hPa in 24 hours, a dramatic pressure fall that can turn an ordinary low into a powerful “bombing low”. A low becomes a “bombing low” through a process called explosive cyclogenesis, when its central pressure falls unusually quickly in 24 hours. This rapid pressure drop usually happens when powerful atmospheric ingredients line up. On Sunday morning, model guidance shows an intense jet stream, roughly 9 to 10 km above the ground, with winds near 300-310 km/h over southwest WA (image 1). That is an exceptionally strong upper-level jet, well above the 180 km/h benchmark that EUMeTrain cites as being associated with developing explosive cyclogenesis, based on Lim and Simmonds (2002). This powerful jet helps air evacuate from above the low, allowing surface pressure to fall more rapidly. Image 1. ECMWF HRES 300 hPa jet stream (roughly 9-10kms above the ground) forecast for Sunday morning, showing an intense upper-level jet over southwest WA with winds near 300-310 km/h. Abnormally warm waters off parts of the WA coast are also feeding moisture and energy into the system (image 2), while a pool of cold air or cut off low in the upper atmosphere is helping create a sharp contrast between warm, moisture laden air below and much colder air above (image 3). Image 2. Daily sea surface temperature anomaly analysis for Thu 28 May 2026, showing warmer-than-average waters off parts of the WA coast, including anomalies of around +1 to +2°C in areas west and southwest of the state. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image 3. ECMWF HRES 500 hPa temperature and geopotential height forecast for Sunday morning, showing a pool of colder air about 5 to 6 km above the ground west of southwest WA. That contrast makes the atmosphere more unstable and helps the low deepen rapidly. As the pressure falls, surrounding air rushes in more aggressively, isobars tighten, and winds ramp up quickly (image 4). Image 4. ACCESS-G3 wind gust forecast for Sunday afternoon. To classify explosive cyclogenesis, meteorologists look at how much the central pressure falls in 24 hours, but they do not use the same pressure-drop threshold everywhere on Earth. The threshold changes with latitude because the Earth’s rotation affects how air moves around low pressure systems. At higher latitudes, the rotational effect is stronger, so the pressure fall needs to be larger. At lower latitudes, that rotational effect is weaker, so a smaller pressure fall can still be enough to show that a low is intensifying explosively. According to Lim and Simmonds (2002), this latitude-adjusted threshold is about 12 hPa in 24 hours at 25S and 18 hPa in 24 hours at 40S. This low is expected to move between roughly 35S and 37S during the next 24 hours, placing its threshold near 16 to 17 hPa in 24 hours. With models showing an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours, as shown in the graph below, this low is expected to deepen well beyond the explosive cyclogenesis threshold. Image 5. Modelled 24-hour central pressure fall for the developing low. Models show an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours. For southwest WA, this means a rapidly worsening spell of weather through the weekend, with damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms, large surf and hazardous marine conditions likely before the low shifts away early next week. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid exposed beaches and coastal roads, never drive through floodwater, and keep up to date with the latest warnings.