Australian Weather

26 Jun 2026, 3:20AM UTC

A pair of large rainbands will sweep across Australia over the coming week, delivering widespread rain to several states. Two upper-level low pressure systems will pass to the south of Australia next week, helping draw moisture-laden air over the country. This infeed of moisture will occur from both the east and the west, allowing humid air from the Coral Sea and Indian Ocean to move over the country, providing fuel for rainfall. This weather pattern is expected to cause showers across the southern half of Australia and along the country's east coast this weekend and next week. However, the heaviest falls are expected to occur in Australia’s southeast inland – across the Murray-Darling Basin – where two rainbands could deliver accumulated falls of 50-100 mm over the next seven days. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 10 pm AEST on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The first rainband will cross the Murray-Darwin Basin on Monday and Tuesday next week. This will be followed by a second rainband between Wednesday and Friday. While there is some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain these two rainbands will deliver, there is good agreement between forecast models that the rain will affect a broad area of Victoria, New South Wales and southwest Queensland. Why so much rain in El Niño The forecast of rain may come as a surprise following last week’s El Niño declaration from the Bureau of Meteorology. El Niño typically causes below average rain in Australia. One of the reasons Australia is about to see decent rain in El Niño is due to the competing influence of another climate driver: the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The SAM is an index that measured the north-south displacement of a belt of westerly winds that flows around Antarctica, passing to the south of Australia. When the SAM is positive in winter, the westerly wind belt shifts further south. This can cause cold fronts and lows to pass to the south of Australia, while allowing high pressure systems to drive moisture-laden winds over Australia from the east. The SAM is currently very strongly positive, with the index reaching +4.41 on June 24, which is the highest value since May 2023. This positive SAM is helping draw moisture over Australia from the east, which will enhance rainfall from next week’s rainbands. Does this mean it will be a wet winter? Despite the coming week’s wet weather, seasonal forecast models are still predicting below-average rain over much of eastern and southeastern Australia this winter due to the influence of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Image: Seasonal rainfall outlook for the July to September period in 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. So, while this month’s strong positive SAM shows we can still see periods of heavy rain in Australia during El Niño, the outlook is still favouring drier-than-normal weather in the coming months.

26 Jun 2026, 12:01AM UTC

A prolonged and intense heatwave is breaking records in Europe this week, driven by a weather pattern known as an ‘omega block’. The term omega block refers to an upper-level weather pattern resembling the Greek letter omega (Ω), featuring a central high pressure system flanked by two areas of low pressure on either side. These omega block patterns can cause domes of heat to build and intensify over a region for several days in a row. The longer the omega block persists, the more heat is able to intensify. This week’s omega block has caused the UK and other nearby countries to experience temperatures at levels never previously recorded this early in the season. Image: Modelled air temperature anomalies at 12:00 UTC on June 25, 2025. Source: TropicalTidbits.com. Heat records tumble in the UK The heatwave affecting the UK this week has broken numerous records. For the first time in history, the Met Office has issued Red Warnings for Extreme Heat for three consecutive days – from Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday, June 24, the temperature reached as high as 36.1°C at Gosport in Hampshire. At the time, this was the highest June temperature on record for the UK, beating the previous record of 35.6°C, which occurred on June 28, 1976 and June 29, 1957. Wednesday’s intense daytime heat was then followed by oppressive overnight warmth, with a weather station at Bute Park, Cardiff registering a minimum temperature of 23.5°C on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. According to the Met Office, this was the highest June minimum temperature on record for Wales and the UK. Another notable minimum temperature from Wednesday night was 23.0°C at Plymouth, which was a new June record for England. Wednesday night’s warmth provided an elevated starting point for temperatures on Thursday, allowing more records to fall during the day. Merryfield, Somerset registered a maximum temperature of 36.7°C on Thursday, June 25, which was a new June maximum temperature record for the UK, surpassing the previous day’s peak temperature by more than half a degree. Image: According to the Met Office, 36.7°C at Merryfield, Somerset on Thursday, June 25, was a new June maximum temperature record for the UK. Source: Met Office. Wales also set a new June maximum temperature record on Thursday, with Bute Park, Cardiff reaching 35.9°C, surpassing the previous record of 33.7°C from June 18, 2020. These provisional records will be officially verified by the Met Office at the conclusion of this week’s heatwave. Heat records broken in France and Spain France has had an exceptionally hot week that started with record-breaking overnight warmth on Monday night into Tuesday morning. According to Météo-France, “the night of Monday 22 to Tuesday 23 June was the hottest night that metropolitan France has experienced with an average minimum temperature of 21.6 °C exceeding the 21.4 °C of July 25, 2019.” This overnight heat set the following day up to become extremely hot. France’s average temperature on Tuesday – calculated by combining daytime and nighttime temperatures across the entire country – was 29.9°C. This beat the previous record of 29.4°C from July 25, 2019 and August 5, 2003. This record was once again broken on Wednesday, June 24, when France’s national average temperature reached 30°C. Thursday continued the oppressive heat by matching Tuesday’s national average temperature of 29.9°C, based on provisional data from Météo-France. Météo-France’s records for daily average temperatures in France date back to 1947. Some of the standout daily maximum temperatures in France this week included 44.3°C in Pissos (Landes) on Tuesday, June 23, and 43.8°C in Palluau (Vendée) on Wednesday, June 24. Paris also reached 40.3C on Wednesday. According to satellite data, land surface temperatures were exceeding 50°C at times in France this week. Image: Land Surface Temperature (not air temperature) over France and northern Spain on June 23, 2026. Source: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 According to AEMET, Spain also experienced its hottest June days on record this week. Based on combined provisional minimum and maximum temperatures, Spain’s average temperature reached 28.17°C on June 23 and 28.08°C on June 22. These were both higher than the previous record of 28.01°C from June 30, 2025. Heatwave continues in Europe The dome of heat that is sitting over Europe this week will gradually move towards the east over the coming days. While this will allow some respite from the intense heat in parts of Western Europe, other countries further east will face extreme heat this weekend and early next week.