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A low in the Tasman Sea is slowly moving away, causing strong winds to ease over eastern NSW. A low to the south of SA is bringing showers to SA's south, Vic and Tas. A low approaching WA is bringing rain to WA's west. A weak high keeps elsewhere dry.
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Today, 4:18AM UTC
A "bombing low" is brewing off WA. Here’s what makes it dangerous
Explosive cyclogenesis is underway over the eastern Indian Ocean, where a rapidly deepening low pressure system is setting parts of southwest Western Australia up for a wild weekend of damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms and dangerous seas. Models show the low’s central pressure plunging by an average of about 25 hPa in 24 hours, a dramatic pressure fall that can turn an ordinary low into a powerful “bombing low”. A low becomes a “bombing low” through a process called explosive cyclogenesis, when its central pressure falls unusually quickly in 24 hours. This rapid pressure drop usually happens when powerful atmospheric ingredients line up. On Sunday morning, model guidance shows an intense jet stream, roughly 9 to 10 km above the ground, with winds near 300-310 km/h over southwest WA (image 1). That is an exceptionally strong upper-level jet, well above the 180 km/h benchmark that EUMeTrain cites as being associated with developing explosive cyclogenesis, based on Lim and Simmonds (2002). This powerful jet helps air evacuate from above the low, allowing surface pressure to fall more rapidly. Image 1. ECMWF HRES 300 hPa jet stream (roughly 9-10kms above the ground) forecast for Sunday morning, showing an intense upper-level jet over southwest WA with winds near 300-310 km/h. Abnormally warm waters off parts of the WA coast are also feeding moisture and energy into the system (image 2), while a pool of cold air or cut off low in the upper atmosphere is helping create a sharp contrast between warm, moisture laden air below and much colder air above (image 3). Image 2. Daily sea surface temperature anomaly analysis for Thu 28 May 2026, showing warmer-than-average waters off parts of the WA coast, including anomalies of around +1 to +2°C in areas west and southwest of the state. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Image 3. ECMWF HRES 500 hPa temperature and geopotential height forecast for Sunday morning, showing a pool of colder air about 5 to 6 km above the ground west of southwest WA. That contrast makes the atmosphere more unstable and helps the low deepen rapidly. As the pressure falls, surrounding air rushes in more aggressively, isobars tighten, and winds ramp up quickly (image 4). Image 4. ACCESS-G3 wind gust forecast for Sunday afternoon. To classify explosive cyclogenesis, meteorologists look at how much the central pressure falls in 24 hours, but they do not use the same pressure-drop threshold everywhere on Earth. The threshold changes with latitude because the Earth’s rotation affects how air moves around low pressure systems. At higher latitudes, the rotational effect is stronger, so the pressure fall needs to be larger. At lower latitudes, that rotational effect is weaker, so a smaller pressure fall can still be enough to show that a low is intensifying explosively. According to Lim and Simmonds (2002), this latitude-adjusted threshold is about 12 hPa in 24 hours at 25S and 18 hPa in 24 hours at 40S. This low is expected to move between roughly 35S and 37S during the next 24 hours, placing its threshold near 16 to 17 hPa in 24 hours. With models showing an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours, as shown in the graph below, this low is expected to deepen well beyond the explosive cyclogenesis threshold. Image 5. Modelled 24-hour central pressure fall for the developing low. Models show an average fall near 25 hPa in 24 hours. For southwest WA, this means a rapidly worsening spell of weather through the weekend, with damaging to destructive winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms, large surf and hazardous marine conditions likely before the low shifts away early next week. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid exposed beaches and coastal roads, never drive through floodwater, and keep up to date with the latest warnings.
29 May 2026, 5:54AM UTC
Extremely windy weekend ahead for southwest WA
Damaging winds are likely for Perth and parts of southwest Western Australia, especially near the coast, as a cold front roars in later this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see frequent showers, with comparatively calm conditions on Saturday morning before winds pick up in the afternoon. The strongest winds will rip through the southwest on Sunday as a cold front crosses the coastline, with gusts possibly reaching 100-120 km/h in the Perth CBD and potentially exceeding 140 km/h in exposed coastal areas. Image: Synoptic chart for Sunday, May 31, 2026, showing the low pressure system and associated cold front approaching southwest WA with isobars packed closely together (indicating strong winds) over a relatively widespread area around the low. Source: Weatherzone. Why will it be so windy this weekend? A complex low pressure system will push past the southwest tip of WA on the weekend, and an associated cold front will surge across the South West Land Division, followed by a powerful burst of westerly winds which will peak on Sunday. "Even though we see cold fronts at this time of year, this is a strong system for late autumn or early winter," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains. "The isobars are not just packed tight around the low, but all the way up the west coast as far as southern parts of the Gascoyne forecast district. "The low is quite large in size and there’s a really strong pressure gradient as the low presses against the ridge of high pressure." As of Friday afternoon, the only current wind warning in Western Australia is a strong wind warning up until midnight on Saturday for the following coastal areas: Perth Local Waters, Gascoyne Coast, Geraldton Coast, Lancelin Coast, Perth Coast, Bunbury Geographe Coast, Leeuwin Coast, Albany Coast and Esperance Coast. Further warnings are likely to be issued by the BoM, including for some inland areas. Please check all the latest updates on the Weatherzone warnings page. How cold and wet will it be? Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation in southwest WA to next Thursday, June 4, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Despite the likelihood of grey skies and intermittent downpours on both Saturday and Sunday, neither day will be particularly cold in Perth, with forecast maximums of 22°C and 21°C respectively. Because of the strong winds, it will still be wise to rug up if you're attending the West Coast Eagles vs Essendon AFL match at Perth's Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. In the cooler, unstable airmass behind the cold front, showery weather will persist into the neew week, with top temperatures in the high teens (close to the June average of 18.5°C) expected for the first few days of winter, which begins on Monday.
29 May 2026, 1:29AM UTC
Multiple flood rescues as New South Wales deluge delivers 100 mm in three hours
Heavy rain and thunderstorms inundated parts of New South Wales on Thursday into Friday morning, with the State Emergency Service performing five flood rescues and responding to more than 300 incidents in 24 hours. Widespread rain and storms impacted parts of eastern and northern NSW over the last couple of days as a low pressure system interacted with a steady stream of moisture-laden air. This system was amplified by an upper-level pool of cold air, which enhanced atmospheric instability and resulted in intense rainfall. Some of the standout rainfall totals during the 24 hours ending at 9am on Friday, May 29, included: 161 mm at Careys Peak 143 mm at Mount Barrington 127 mm at Comboyne 106 mm at Markwell 102 mm at Bulahdelah 93 mm at Bateau Bay and Lisarow 51 mm at Woolbrook and Nundle Image: Estimated rainfall during the 24 hours to 9am on Friday, May 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Intense rainfall developed over parts of the Hunter and Mid North Coast districts on Thursday afternoon and night as the low intensified near the NSW coast. A rain gauge at Comboyne registered 101 mm in the three hours ending at 11:45 pm, while Careys Peak in the Barrington Tops collected 58 mm in three hours earlier in the afternoon. In Newcastle, rainfall totals during the 24 hours to 9am on Friday reached 73 mm at Nobbys Head and 69 mm at Williamtown. These were both the highest daily rain totals so far this year. Heavy rain also fell in northern NSW, where the Newell Highway was closed between Moree and Boggabilla late on Thursday due to flooding over the road. The heavy rain and flooding on Thursday into Friday morning saw the SES responding to 321 incidents during the 24 hours ending at 8 am on Friday. This included flood rescues at Erina Heights, Narara, Ourimbah and Holgate, where cars had become trapped in floodwater. Rain will continue to affect parts of northeast NSW on Friday, however rainfall will ease during the afternoon and evening as the low pressure system moves away from the coast and tracks out over the Tasman Sea.