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Patchy rain is scattering across SA, western NSW & western VIC in unstable air. A high is clearing rain from central & NW Australia & clearing showers from SW WA. A low continues to move away, causing brisk winds & showers to ease further in the southeast.
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Today, 2:53AM UTC
Sydney hits one metre of rain four months ahead of schedule
The first half of 2024 has been remarkably wet in Sydney, with the city already amassing one metre of accumulated rain since the start of the year. A combination of regular onshore winds, frequent rain-bearing weather systems and above average sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea have caused lots of rain in Sydney over the last five to six months. The city has received above average rainfall in four out of the last five months and despite only being a few days into June, it has also already exceeded its June monthly average after a bout of torrential rain on the weekend. This latest deluge, which included Sydney’s second wettest June day on record, tipped the city’s running annual total rainfall for 2024 above the one-metre mark. As of 9am local time on June 4, Sydney’s running annual total was up to about 1020mm*. This is only the 14th time in 166 years of records that Sydney has seen more than one metre of rain by this point in the year. In an average year, Sydney would usually reach 1,000mm of accumulated rainfall in October and pick up a little over 1,200mm in the entire year. In 2024, the city has amassed one metre of annual rain around four months ahead of schedule. Image: Sydney’s cumulative year-to-date rainfall compared to all other years since 1859. Note that this graph uses estimated observations sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology for daily rainfall on February 20th and April 6th as data is missing on these days due to instrument failure. This year’s running total of around 1020mm puts it in the top 2% of historical records up to this point in the year. However, it is far from unprecedented. In 2022, it only took three months for Sydney to exceed one metre of rain and by the end of May, the city had received more than 1.5 metres of rainfall. The graph above shows that there have been a few bursts of heavy rain, most notably in April and June when more than 140mm fell in a single day. It is common for Sydney’s cumulative rainfall to increase in big steps like this, especially when low pressure systems or troughs cause persistent and heavy rain over the city. Despite the hefty amount of rain Sydney has seen this year, the number of wet days hasn’t been remarkable. Sydney’s Observatory Hill weather station received measurable rain on about 65 out of 151 days between January and May, which is right on the long-term average. *Some of the rainfall observations used to calculate Sydney’s year-to-date rainfall in this article were estimates from the Bureau of Meteorology. These estimates were to account for missing observations due to instrument failure at the Sydney Observatory Hill Automatic Weather Station. The following rainfall estimates were used: 160 mm in the 24 hours ending at 9am on April 6 35 mm in the 24 hours ending at 9am on February 20
Today, 2:20AM UTC
Yet another drenching for NSW
Rain is set to increase on Wednesday, with hundreds of millimetres in just two days possible for the Illawarra and South Coast regions. An upper-level low will cause rain to spread over eastern Australia in the next three days, with the possibility of heavy falls in NSW and Vic. The satellite image below shows high levels of atmospheric moisture (blue shades) swirling clockwise around an upper-level low sitting over eastern SA on Tuesday morning. Image: Himawari-9 satellite water vapour showing the upper-level cut off low near SA at 7:40am AEST on Tuesday, June 4. This upper-level low is interacting with a surface trough to bring rainfall to much of SA on Tuesday. During the next 72 hours this low will continue to move east, bringing large rainfall totals to parts of NSW and Vic in the coming days. Images: 500 hPa temperature and height on Wednesday, June 5 (top), Thursday (middle) and Friday (bottom), according to ECMWF. The map below shows that one computer model is forecasting 100 to 250mm across parts of the Illawarra and South Coast in the next 72 hours, in response to this upper-low. Image: Accumulated precipitation for the 3 days leading up to 4am AEST on Friday, June 7, according to Access-G Much of this rain should fall on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to the surface trough and low development. On Wednesday, the rain will focus on the Illawarra, South Coast and Southern Tablelands districts in NSW, with widespread falls of 20 to 40mm forecast. Isolated areas of the South Coast could see 60-80mm in 24 hours on Wednesday, as a coastal trough develops in response to the upper-low. Large totals are forecast again on Thursday in this region, as a surface low pressure system develops within this trough off the NSW coast. Models are suggesting that isolated areas could see 80-150mm anywhere along the coast between Sydney and Mallacoota on Thursday. There is still some uncertainty on where the surface low will develop and therefore where the heaviest falls will occur. Rain is expected to ease slightly on Friday; however, the showers will continue across the southeast over much of the weekend. As this event unfolds please keep an eye out for the latest warnings.
Today, 1:09AM UTC
Brisbane dips to single digits
Well done, Brisbane. You've just shivered your way through your first night of the year below 10 degrees. The temperature in downtown Brisbane dipped to a chilly 8.2°C overnight, with a reading of 7.2°C at the airport and much colder temps inland, including –0.1°C at Kingaroy, which was the Sunshine Coast hinterland town's first subzero night of the year. The temperature gradient map which you can find on the Weatherzone homepage shows areas of blue (cool air) sneaking a lot further north than usual as the southerlies which have dominated SE Australia since the weekend take a trip north like a planeload of frozen tourists. Even several inland towns near the Tropic of Capricorn fell perilously close to freezing overnight, including: Biloela (just south of the Tropic) had a low of 1.4°C. Interestingly, its minimum on the first day of winter, just three nights ago, was a very mild 17.3°C. Clermont (just north of the Tropic and therefore, officially "tropical"!) had a low of 1.1°C. Like Biloela, Clermont's minimum on the first day of winter was exactly 17.3°C. The good news for all the places mentioned is that daytime temps this week are still heading for tops of 20°C or higher, except for Kingaroy which won't break out of the teens all week. Brisbane will see tops in the low 20s for the rest of the week with mostly sunny skies. It's a shame the first State of Origin match is at Sydney's Accor Stadium this Wednesday evening, as the forecast for kickoff at Sydney Olympic Park at 8:05 pm is cold and showery. Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard says there'll be a 40% chance of showers at kickoff, increasing to an 80% chance of rain by the end of the game. Most likely the rain will be light, however there's the chance of moderately heavy rainfall when fans are heading home.
Weather in Business
14 May 2024, 3:01AM UTC
Can auroras affect aeroplanes?
Auroras lit up the skies on the weekend amid one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years, but did this display impact aeroplanes and the aviation industry? The spectacular exhibit was the aurora borealis/australis, or northern and southern lights seen in both hemispheres. Images: Aurora Australis on Saturday, May 11 from Bendleby Ranges, SA (top), source: @bendlebyranges and Ricketts Point, Vic (bottom), source: @dayofthedreamer These lights are typically only seen in the polar latitudes, but this weekend they were spotted in the Southern Hemisphere as far north as Mackay in Queensland. This was caused by the strongest solar flare and storm seen in over 20 years. This auroral display was caused by a solar flare and multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which erupted from the sun over a few days last week. Charged particles were then carried from the sun to earth by a solar wind. When these particles reached earth, they interacted with our planet’s magnetic field and were driven towards the magnetic poles. In the upper layer of the atmosphere called the ionosphere (90km above the surface) the solar wind collides with oxygen and nitrogen in this layer and produces a colorful display. The southern lights typically occur between 50 and 800km above the surface, well above the layer of atmosphere that planes typically fly in. So, do they impact aviation despite occurring well above the flight level? Yes, space weather events like this can impact aviation communications, navigation and surveillance systems. They can also increase the radiation exposure of aircraft in the air. Images: Aurora Australis from Virgin plane cockpit on Saturday, May 11. Source: @shelbytillett The charged particles caused by CMEs can modify the upper layer of earth's atmosphere called the ionosphere, which can impact our technology systems. High frequency radio communication depends on the ionosphere reflecting radio waves back down to earth. Satellite communication, navigation and surveillance rely on the transmission of signals through the ionosphere. According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s space weather department, >Space weather events that modify the density and/or structure of the ionosphere can therefore significantly impact the performance of HF COM, SATCOM and SATNAV systems". While communication and navigation can be impacted by the modification of the ionosphere, the electricity network can also be impacted. The storms can induce currents in power lines, overheating transformers, which can potentially cause power outages. The strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded occurred during September 1859, called the Carrington Event. This event caused multiple fires of telegraph systems across Europe and North America. There have been no reports of negative major impacts of this solar storm, it was merely a spectacular display that captivated people across the world. Unfortunately, auroras are notoriously difficult to forecast as they need multiple factors to line up for these beautiful lights to occur. Looking ahead, the sun is nearing its solar maximum, which means we could see more sunspots on the sun's surface this year. This could increase our chance of seeing more spectacular displays in the coming months.
07 May 2024, 11:23PM UTC
How severe thunderstorms impact energy infrastructure
Earlier this year destructive thunderstorms and winds equivalent to a category two cyclone lashed Victoria, bending towers and toppling trees and poles. So, how can thunderstorms damage energy infrastructure, and are these events getting worse? This event occurred during mid-February 2024, when a strong cold front generated severe thunderstorms and localised wind gusts of 130km/h after a prolonged period of extreme heat. The image below shows a squall line around 1,500km long causing lightning across four states in February. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image, lightning and radar on Tuesday, February 13 at 3pm AEDT. The destructive winds were caused by microbursts, which bent towers and toppled trees and poles in Vic, leaving thousands without power. Image: Damaged transmission towers at Anakie, Source: AAP Microbursts are a localised column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than 4km wide. The cold, heavy air within this downdraft descends rapidly to the surface and then spreads out in all directions as it hits the ground. The image below shows how wind gusts are produced in thunderstorms. Microbursts can be destructive and cause wind gusts above 100 km/h, which can be a risk for power infrastructure. The force applied to the structure is roughly proportional to the speed squared. Fierce wind gusts from thunderstorms can: Knock down trees, which can fall onto power lines Topple poles Knock out transmission towers. Microbursts typically occur during the warmer months of the year and, unfortunately, they can develop rapidly and last for only a short period of time, making them difficult to predict and warn communities about. Have these thunderstorm events become more severe in Victoria? The severe thunderstorm season across southern Australia occurs during the warmer months of the year, between November and April. While thunderstorms are more common across northern Australia, Qld, and NSW, they do occur frequently in the summer months. The map below shows the annual average lightning density in Vic between July 2014 and June 2023, with the most lightning occurring in the northeast high country each year. Image: Weatherzone’s Total Lightning Network Annual lightning density mean between July 2014 and June 2023. You can see in the map above that lightning is common to the north of Ballarat near Learmonth and Miners Rest, with the region seeing 37.7 pulses per year. The high country near Benalla and Whitfield recorded an average of 28.1 pulses, Thorpdale in Gippsland saw 24.5 pulses, and Melbourne only 8.2 pulses per year. Research has shown that the warming climate is increasing the risk of heatwaves and bushfires, which can impact energy infrastructure. Unfortunately, it is unknown how global warming will affect thunderstorms and their associated destructive winds. To research climate change's impact on thunderstorms, we would need quality data that dates back well into history. Unfortunately, detecting lightning is a fairly new phenomena, so a solid climate base to compare data to is not currently existent. According to the University of Melbourne researchers and Watt Clarity, ‘The evidence we do have suggests continued climate change may potentially increase the risk of extreme winds from thunderstorms. This is partly due to more moist and unstable air, which are essential for thunderstorms to form. We think these conditions could occur more often with climate change, in part because warmer air can hold more moisture.’ Indeed, much of Australia had an unusually stormy summer 2023/24, with Melbourne, Canberra and Brisbane all seeing 5 to 6 extra storm days a season. The map below shows that an unusually high number of thunder days were seen over most of Qld, NSW, SA, Vic, the ACT and Tas during the summer of 2023/24 compared to the average of the most recent nine years. Image: Thunder day anomalies for summer 2023-24 versus the average thunder days for the nation’s nine most recent summers (2014/15 to 2022/23).
