Australian Weather

23 Feb 2026, 7:53AM UTC

Two years' worth of rain could inundate parts of central Australia this week, bringing a risk of widespread flooding in what is typically the driest part of the country. A slow-moving low pressure system and associated trough will interact with a constant feed of tropical moisture to cause heavy rain and thunderstorms over parts of central Australia every day this week. Some of this wet and stormy weather will also extend towards southern and southeastern Australia at times over the coming week, meaning moisture from this system will affect parts of most states and territories. However, the heaviest rain will fall in the middle of the country. Not your average inland soaking What’s unusual about this rainfall event is that the low pressure system will remain in roughly the same spot for most of the week. Mid-latitude low pressure systems typically impact an area for one or two days before weakening or moving away. This system, however, will sit over the same area for most of this week, causing an unusually prolonged period of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Another notable feature of this week’s weather setup will be the huge amounts of moisture available in the atmosphere over central Australia. Precipitable water – a measure of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere to produce rain – is predicted to reach 80 mm at times this week. This is an incredibly high value for central Australia. For comparison, when Brisbane Airport registered a precipitable water value of 73.5 mm during a flooding event in January 2024, it was a new record at the time. Image: Forecast precipitable water and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Australia at 11am AEDT on Tuesday, February 24, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. How much rain will fall this week? There is some disagreement between computer models regarding how much rain will fall this week. At this stage, the heaviest rain is expected to occur over the southern half of the Northern Territory, South Australia, southwest Queensland and western New South Wales. These areas could see 100 to 200 mm of rain, with isolated falls possibly reaching around 400 mm. This includes the Simpson, Strzelecki, Sturt Stony and Tirari deserts, which is a region that typically receives around 100mm of rain in an entire year. Image: Forecast accumulated rain this week according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Source: Weatherzone. Flooding likely to be widespread Central Australia’s generally flat landscape and low average annual rainfall means there are fewer well-established rivers and creeks compared to other wetter and more mountainous areas of the country. As a result, heavy rain often causes widespread flooding that can cut off roads and railway lines and even create new waterways in the landscape. Flooding in central Australia can also last weeks as the landscape takes time to drain. Some of this week’s rain is likely to fall or flow into South Australia's ephemeral (meaning they only fill after heavy rain) creeks and lakes, including Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre and the Strzelecki Creek Wetland System. These waterways could be transformed by this week’s rain and support fresh flora and fauna growth into autumn. Moisture spreading south While the heaviest rain is expected to occur over central Australia this week, the vast inland pool of tropical moisture will also fuel rain and thunderstorms in the country’s south and southeast. A low pressure trough extending over southeastern Australia in the first half of the week will cause showers and storms over parts of Vic, NSW and the ACT on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, with potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. Another low pressure trough will drag moisture towards the south over SA from Friday into the weekend. This system could cause heavy rain and potentially severe thunderstorms over much of SA, including the Adelaide region. How to stay up to date with this week’s rain and flooding This is an evolving weather event and forecast details are likely to change throughout the week as new and more reliable computer model guidance becomes available. For the most accurate information, be sure to check the latest forecasts and warnings in your area and be mindful of road closures and flooding if you are travelling. The State Emergency Services recommends the following safety measures when flooding is occurring: Have your emergency kit ready Check on your neighbours Be prepared to evacuate if advised by emergency services Never drive, ride or walk through floodwaters Don't let children play in or near floodwaters

23 Feb 2026, 12:56AM UTC

On a Sunday when exceptionally heavy rainfall totals for summer – or indeed for any month – were recorded in some inland areas of South Australia and other parts of southeastern Australia, Adelaide once again frustratingly missed out. Last week, a rainband slipped just south of the city. On Sunday, the heaviest rain fell north and east of the city. No rain was recorded in the Adelaide CBD, while only very light totals were recorded in some suburbs, with slightly higher readings up in the Adelaide Hills. But the forecast models paint an optimistic picture, with potentially heavy rain on the cards for the parched SA capital later this week and into the weekend as a most airmass with tropical origins pushes south. Be sure to keep checking the Adelaide forecast as this system approaches. Image: Eight-hour combined radar and satellite loop showing rain in outback SA sliding into Victoria and NSW on Sunday, February 22, 2026. An unseasonably wet Sunday across the southeast inland Here’s the state by state breakdown of what was a very wet Sunday for summer in many inland areas: South Australia South Australia’s North East Pastoral forecast district is one of the driest regions in the country, with less than 200mm of average annual rainfall at many locations. But in the 24 hours to 9am, three weather stations near the small town of Leigh Creek topped 50mm of rainfall, with a highest official reading of 66.4mm at Blinman, about 500km north of Adelaide. Significant falls were also recorded in the Murraylands, with Swan Reach (Ponderosa) receiving 26.4mm. The fruit-growing centre of Renmark had 13.6mm, which doesn’t sound like much, but it was the town’s first day this summer with more than a millimetre of rain. Image: Predicted South Australian rainfall accumulation up until Sunday, March 1, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Victoria Significant falls were recorded across most of Victoria as the rainband associated with a trough of low pressure slid across the southeast of the continent. The falls were particularly heavy in the North East forecast district, where Mt Buller in the high country received 115.6mmm. Four weather stations near the Murray River topped 100mm, including Wodonga with 103mm. Flash flooding was reported in the border city. Melbourne received a handy 10.8mm, but its overall 2025/26 summer rainfall total is still much less than half the running average. Potentially much heavier falls could arrive as soon as tomorrow (Tuesday).  New South Wales/ACT The heaviest 24-hour totals to 9am Monday were in the Snowy Mountains, where Thredbo received 111.6mm. Rain and storms delivered totals around 20mm to some South Coast locations. The rain barely wet the gauge at Observatory Hill on the fringe of the Sydney CBD, with 0.2mm recorded. However a late afternoon storm delivered as much as 20mm to some southern suburbs. Canberra received a handy 6.6mm which brought its running monthly rainfall total to 45.2mm (February average 62.1mm). But the national capital still faces the prospect of its fifth consecutive month of below-average rainfall. Tasmania Virtually the whole state saw at least some rain on Sunday into Monday, with by far the heaviest falls in the west as tends to happen with systems like this that approach from the northwest. The highest official reading was 60.2mm at Margaret Lake Dam in the Western forecast district, while Hobart recorded 2.4mm. To date, Hobart’s rainfall is tracking at about half the seasonal average across the 2025/26 summer.