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A tropical low north of the NT is driving showers and storms over the northern tropics. An unstable airmass brings showers and storms to western WA. Brisk westerly winds with a cold fronts is bringing showers to Tas and coastal Vic. Dry elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 7:27AM UTC
Tropical cyclone risk increasing near northern Australia
A tropical low located to the north of Darwin has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week, with landfall over the NT coast possible on the weekend. At 3:30pm ACST on Tuesday, November 18, a tropical low was located about 270 km north of Darwin and moving towards the east northeast at roughly 9 km/h. The system slowly gained strength on Tuesday as it drew energy from the warm Timor Sea, where sea surface temperatures are currently around 30 to 31°C. This is much warmer than the 26.5°C threshold required for tropical cyclone formation. Image: Sea surface temperatures to the north of the NT earlier this week, showing water temperatures around 30 to 31°C. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The warm seas and favourable atmospheric conditions should help the low pressure system mature into a relatively small tropical cyclone by Thursday. The small size of ths system will help it gain strength more quickly than a larger tropical cyclone would. While there is still lots of uncertainty about this system’s future track and strength, some computer models suggest it could approach the northern coast of the NT’s Top End this weekend. At this stage, there is a chance that we could see a category two tropical cyclone approaching the Tiwi Islands on Saturday before the system moves to the west of Darwin on Sunday. Image: Extended tropical cyclone forecast track map from the Bureau of Meteorology, showing potential for a tropical cyclone to impact the NT’s Top End later this week. Source: Weatherzone. It’s too early to know exactly how this developing tropical low will impact the NT in the coming days. However, cyclonic impacts including heavy rain, damaging winds, large waves and a storm surge are possible in parts of the NT later this week. Anyone living in the north of the NT and WA’s Kimberley region should stay up to date with the latest tropical cyclone advisories in the coming days. Forecasts and warnings may change from day-to-day as more accurate information becomes available to meteorologists. In addition to the official advisories, you will also find regular updates about this system on the Weatherzone news feed.
17 Nov 2025, 11:57PM UTC
Perth Ashes Test weather: slight chance of showers on first two days then mostly clear
The Ashes starts in Perth this Friday, November 21, with Australia hosting England for the first of five Tests at Optus Stadium in cricket’s oldest rivalry, with play starting at 10:20am AWST (1:20pm AEST). So what will the weather be like? The good news is that play should be possible for the vast majority of the five days, although there may be a few spots of rain on Friday and Saturday. Friday (Day 1): maximum 26°C. An extensive area of low pressure centred over the eastern part of Western Australia will generate instability with the chance of showers across much of southern WA. But Perth’s wettest weather tends to arrive via cold fronts from the southwest, so while Optus Stadium could potentially see a drop or two and even a brief thunderstorm in the afternoon, expect mostly clear skies. Saturday (Day 2): maximum 24°C. An injection of slightly cooler air will arrive with a few showers possible in the morning followed by a mostly clear afternoon. Sunday (Day 3): maximum 23°C. A drying trend sets in, with only a very slight chance of a light shower. Monday (Day 4): maximum 23°C. Relatively cool again and mostly sunny. Tuesday (Day 5): maximum 24°C. Another dry and relatively cool day for late November. Image: Daily Forecast on the Weatherzone app. So in summary, Perth will avoid any of the hot weather which was typical for Test cricket in the city back in the (relatively recent) days when Brisbane always had the first Test in November and the Perth Test was often played in the heat of December. Even last year when Australia hosted India at Optus Stadium in November, the mercury reached 36.7°C on Day 3 on November 24. There’s no chance of that kind of heat this year. For those who love statistics (yes YOU, cricket fans!), here are the Perth weather averages for November: Average maximum: 26.7°C Average minimum: 14.4°C Average rainfall: 24.2mm Monthly rain days: (0.2mm or more) 5.6 And here is the average rainfall in November for the Australian capital cities. As you can see, Perth is by far the driest. Darwin: 142.9mm (12.5 rain days) Brisbane: 100.1mm (11.0 rain days) Sydney: 84.2mm (11.7 rain days) Canberra: 75.6mm (9.1 rain days) Melbourne: 59.9mm (11.8 rain days) Hobart: 52.8mm (14.1 rain days) Adelaide: 31.1mm (7.9 rain days) Perth: 24.2mm (5.6 rain days)
17 Nov 2025, 2:27AM UTC
High tropical cyclone risk near Australia this week – rare November landfall possible
A tropical low currently developing over the Timor Sea has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone later this week, with a possibility of landfall somewhere in the NT or WA. The satellite images below show cloud circulating around the developing tropical low on Monday morning. Image: Visible satellite images showing a developing tropical low over the Timor Sea on Monday morning. This system has already caused heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western Top End in the last couple of days, including 228 mm in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin, which was its heaviest rain in a decade. The low pressure system is in an environment that should help it gain strength over the next few days, with plenty of warm sea surface temperatures to provide energy and favourable atmospheric conditions to facilitate its intensification. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives the system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Wednesday and a high risk from Friday. Image: Map showing a ‘high’ risk of a tropical cyclone near the NT’s Top End on Saturday, November 22, 2025. At this stage, the centre of the system is likely to be located somewhere inside the brow-shaded ellipsis at 11pm AEDT on Saturday. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While there is some uncertainty regarding the prospective tropical cyclone’s future path, most forecast models suggest that it will move towards the northeast between Monday and Wednesday while gaining strength. Some models predict that it will then turn back towards the south or southwest from Thursday or Friday, potentially approaching the coast of the Top End, Tiwi Islands or Kimberley towards the end of the week or early next week. At this early stage in the system’s development, it is difficult to predict exactly where it will move and how strong it will get. However, there is enough consensus between forecast models for residents in the Top End and Kimberley to pay close attention to the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories for the most up-to-date information over the coming week. Prepare now and make sure you have an emergency plan in place. Is this early in the season for a tropical cyclone? Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from November to April. However, we don’t usually see many tropical cyclones near the Australian coastline this early in the season. Only four tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Australian mainland in November: Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2013) Severe Tropical Cyclone Quenton (1983) Severe Tropical Cyclone Ines (1973) Tropical Cyclone 01U, also called the ‘Broome Cyclone’ (1910) If this week’s system does become a tropical cyclone, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina.