Australian Weather

13 Jan 2026, 3:03AM UTC

Famous for its wildly fluctuating weather, Melbourne is turning on a run of uncharacteristically stable temperatures in the lead-up to the start of the 2026 Australian Open tennis this Sunday. Melbourne’s average maximum in January (the hottest month) is 26°C. Historically, that’s because you tend to get hot bursts in the 30s or even low 40s, mixed in with cool bursts in the high teens or low 20s. Recent weeks have provided good examples of Melbourne’s summer maximum temperature swings: Melbourne started last week with maximums of just 20.1°C and 20.6°C on Monday and Tuesday before soaring to 42.9°C on Friday, as temperatures topped 44°C in some outer suburbs. A few weeks ago in December, Melbourne’s maximum jumped almost 20 degrees from 18.6°C to 38.3°C within just two days. But this week, Melbourne can expect maximums of 23°C, 26°C, 24°C, 25°C, 27°C, 29°C and 29°C from today (Tuesday) through to Sunday. So there’s a gradual warming trend, but no wild swings of the type most people would take when trying to return Novak Djokovic’s serve. Any chance of rain in Melbourne this week? Melbourne has hardly seen a drop of rain so far in 2026, with just 0.2mm recorded last Saturday, which was barely enough to dampen the ground. December was also relatively dry, with just under half the average monthly rainfall. Image: Rain forecast map for Victoria for the three days up until the morning of Friday, January 16, according to the ECMWF model. Thursday is the hope to break the dry spell, but it’s a tricky one to predict with confidence. Melbourne’s rain most commonly arrives from the north, west, or south, but any rain this Thursday is likely to arrive from the east. "A low pressure trough will move over southeastern Australia and start to draw moisture all the way from the Coral Sea in Queensland," Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque explains. "That moisture will wrap into NSW and SE Victoria, with potentially some rain for Melbourne. The most likely total is in the 1-5 mm range with heavier stuff further east and south into Bass Strait. But potentially, Melbourne could see 10-20 mm depending on the depth of the moisture feed." What about the weather for week one of the Australian Open? 5 days to go. Big names, bigger moments loading... @ROLEX #AO26 #countdown pic.twitter.com/poT5eFhbVm — #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 13, 2026 That 29-degree day forecast for the start of the main draw this Sunday, January 18, should be a sign of things to come for the first few days of the tournament. Some models are suggesting a spike of heat in the mid-to-high 30s is possible by midweek next week, although the most likely scenario appears to be a continuation of moderate temperatures in the mid-20s. If the weather isn’t classic “four-seasons-in-a-day" or even “four-seasons-in-a-week" Melbourne weather, we’re sure most fans and players won’t argue.

12 Jan 2026, 7:00AM UTC

Satellite imagery clearly shows smoke from Victoria’s bushfires, as at least 12 major blazes still rage in our southernmost mainland state. As the images clearly show, the smoke is being blown southwards into Bass Strait. This might seem counterintuitive to some people in southern Victoria, who experienced relatively cool surface-level southerly winds for most of Monday. However, winds at slightly higher levels of the atmosphere (above about 1800m) are blowing across Victoria from a predominantly northerly aspect, pushing the smoke south as it ascends. Image: 850hpa temperature and winds for Victoria on the afternoon of Monday, January 12, 2026. 850hpa corresponds to approximately 1500m above sea level. The “feathers” on the wind barbs (small lines sticking out from the longer lines) are positioned at the end of the barb from which the wind is blowing. What is the current state of the fires? As much as 400,000 hectares has now burned in the state’s biggest fire emergency since the Black Summer, with one person tragically killed and more than 350 homes or buildings destroyed. The fatality occurred in the Longwood Fire, where a Watch and Act warning level remains in place. This is the middle level of the Victorian CFA’s three warning levels. The Longwood fire has covered the largest area of any bushfire in the current emergency, and a large patch of scorched countryside appears to be visible on satellite imagery, approximately halfway between Mansfield and Seymour, just south of the actual town of Longwood. Image: Satellite view of the Victorian bushfires at 4pm (AEDT) on Monday, December 12, 2026. The fires have also spawned pyrocumulus clouds like this one pictured below. Pyrocumulus clouds are large storm clouds caused by rising hot air from bushfire flames and smoke. Image: Bushfire smoke and pyrocumulus cloud captured from Holbrook, NSW, just north of the Victorian border, on January 11, 2026. Source: Satch & Co Gallery (@satchandco gallery on Instagram). Is any rain coming to provide relief in Victoria? As mentioned in our story about the wet week in store for eastern Australia, significant rain will make its way to Victoria’s East Gippsland region, where some fires are not yet fully under control. Parts of southern Victoria including Melbourne should also see some showers on Thursday. Away from eastern Victoria and the southern coastline, the likelihood of meaningful rain this week dissipates. A few isolated storms could occur on Thursday in the state’s north, however no widespread statewide soaking lies on the immediate horizon.