Tropical cyclone Grant has formed over the Indian Ocean to the northwest of Australia, becoming the second system to be named inside the Australian region so far this season.

Grant became a category one tropical cyclone early on Tuesday morning when it was located roughly 395 km to the east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

The tropical cyclone is forecast to gain strength as it moves towards the west over the next few days. Computer models suggest it will pass close to or over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Wednesday (Christmas Eve) or Thursday (Christmas Day), most likely as a category two system.

Based on its current forecast track and strength, Grant could cause damaging to destructive winds with gusts of up to around 130 km/h, along with heavy rain and abnormally high tides over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. The islands have a population of around 600 people.

Image: Enhanced infrared satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Grant to the east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Tuesday. Source: Weatherzone.

After passing the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Grant is expected to continue moving towards the west over the Indian Ocean, away from the Australian mainland and its external territories. Some forecast models suggest it could travel all the way across the Indian Ocean and track towards Madagascar in early January, a path somewhat similar to Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Grant is the second system to be named in the Australian region so far this season, and the season’s third tropical cyclone to move through the Australian region. It follows Tropical Cyclone Bakung, which formed near Indonesia earlier this month before entering Australia’s area of responsibility, and Tropical Cyclone Fina, which impacted the NT and WA in November.

The next tropical cyclone to form inside Australia’s area of responsibility will be named Hayley.