Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
high
high
high
low
low
high
med
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 7 November to 11 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, 31 October to 4 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 October to 26 October, 26 October to 30 October, and 8 November to 12 November.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Nature's fireworks light up the skies of the Top End
12:14 EDT
Storms sparked to life over parts of the Top End and Tiwi Islands on Saturday afternoon with some lingering late into the evening. Storms initially flared up over far eastern parts of the Arnhem district but it was not long before western and central parts, along with the Tiwi Islands, saw storms as well. Image: Radar imagery showing showers and storms over the Top End.
Coffee and cakes baked with love, as Armidale community recovers after tornado
23:56 EDT
Northern Tableland locals have filled the hearts and bellies of work crews and residents affected by a tornado that swept through Armidale. Thursday evening's tornado was one of several weather fronts that travelled across the state, bringing with them severe winds, rain and hail. The area went more than 24 hours without electricity or treated water before power was returned to the community at about 10.30pm on Friday.
