Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
high
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 October to 14 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 28 October to 1 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 October to 21 October, 25 October to 29 October, and 30 October to 3 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 October to 13 October, 18 October to 22 October, and 23 October to 27 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
A wet end for the northern dry season
13:18 EST
The Top End is experiencing the wettest September month in decades with total rainfall in some places more than five times the long term average.
Record-breaking freeze in Queensland
11:50 EST
Much of southern Queensland has woken up to a very chilly start, with temperatures not seen this late in spring in several decades.
