Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
24
low
25
low
26
27
28
29
low
30
low
31
low
Nov 1
low
2
3
4
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
13
14
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

Issued Oct 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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