Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
high
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Climate drivers align to give average chance of rain – which at least is better than what it's been
06:13 EDT
Just days after some of the worst bushfires ever seen in Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology tweeted on January 8 that a climate driver called the Indian Ocean Dipole had returned to neutral.
Wet-season storms drop 'best rain in years' across Territory cattle country
06:12 EDT
Wet-season storms have delivered much-needed rain across Northern Territory cattle country, with drought-affected Barkly producers among those to benefit from the downpour.
BOM forecasts Sydney to hit 41C as NSW braces for hot weather and bushfire flare ups
05:30 EDT
NSW is set for a day of wild weather with scorching temperatures, dust storms, damaging winds and the risk of bushfires reigniting after a week of rain.
