Perth 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 February to 16 February, 21 February to 25 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 January to 1 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 12 February to 16 February.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Black Summer donations from Australians nudged $640 million. Getting it to those in need was a miracle
20:54 EDT
The sheer scale of the bushfires that scarred so much of the country's east coast a year ago shocked millions around the world.
Dangerous heatwave building across Victoria with temperatures expected to soar to 44C at Mildura
18:42 EDT
After a relatively mild summer, authorities are warning of a potentially dangerous heatwave forecast for Victoria the weekend.
