Gascoyne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Oct 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
12
13
14
med
15
low
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 October to 17 October, 18 October to 22 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 October to 22 October, 28 October to 1 November, and 1 November to 5 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 October to 14 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 18 October to 22 October.

Issued Sep 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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