Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
29
30
low
Jul 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
med
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 June to 1 July, 2 July to 6 July, and 7 July to 11 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, and 15 July to 19 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 7 July to 11 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

Issued Jun 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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