Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
med
15
low
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
low
30
31
low
Jan 1
2
low
3
high
4
low
5
med
6
7
low
8
med
9
med
10
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 7 January to 11 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 8 January to 12 January.

Issued Dec 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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