Northern Rivers 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
low
7
high
8
9
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
21
low
22
med
23
low
24
med
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
31
Sep 1
low
2
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 August to 18 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 6 September to 10 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 28 August to 1 September.

Issued Aug 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Rare blanketing for Launceston with more wild weather on the way

17:28 EST

Tasmania's wintry blast continued overnight, with Launceston in the state's north receiving its most significant snowfall since the early 1970s.

Rain looms for some drought-weary parts of Australia

17:22 EST

Useful rain will spread over South Australia, Victoria, NSW, and southern Queensland during the second half of this week.