Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
5
med
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
med
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
16
med
17
low
18
med
19
20
21
22
med
23
high
24
low
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
29
low
30
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 October to 12 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 30 October to 3 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 October to 18 October, 18 October to 22 October, and 5 November to 9 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 October to 11 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 31 October to 4 November.

Issued Oct 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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