Illawarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
low
Sep 1
low
2
3
low
4
low
5
6
low
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
11
12
13
med
14
low
15
16
low
17
med
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 25 September to 29 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 September to 29 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 24 September to 28 September.

Issued Aug 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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