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A low is generating very strong winds, large waves & heavy rain in eastern NSW & eastern VIC, showers elsewhere in Vic & very strong winds in SE Qld. Showers are scattering across southwest WA as a low slips to the south. A high is keeping elsewhere largely dry.
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Today, 1:01AM UTC
East Coast Low deepening near NSW coast
Heavy rain, destructive winds and damaging surf will batter eastern NSW in the coming days following the explosive development of an East Coast Low. A coastal trough located off the southeast Queensland and northeast NSW coast rapidly intensified into a low pressure system overnight into Tuesday morning. This ferocious intensification, which meteorologists refer to as explosive cyclogenesis, can be seen playing out in the video below. Video: Satellite imagery across eastern NSW and the Tasman Sea showing the East Coast Low rapidly developing on the morning of Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Widespread 24-hour rainfall accumulations to 9am on Tuesday of 20-40 mm have been recorded between Noosa, in southeast Queensland and Ulladulla on the NSW’s South Coast. Heavier falls of 70 to 120 mm were also recorded around Jervis Bay and north of Newcastle, with notable falls of: 120mm at Jervis Bay Airfield 101mm at Currarong 84mm at Vincentia 80mm at Meldrum East Coast Low forming through ‘explosive cyclogenesis’ The coastal trough that intensified overnight into Tuesday morning had a minimum pressure of about 1014 hPa on Monday night. However, once the low started to rapidly deepen, its central pressure had already dropped by 8 hPa 6 hours later at 4am on Tuesday. The central pressure of the developing East Coast Low was down to about 1002 hPa by 10am on Tuesday. With further deepening expected on Tuesday, the system is expected to meet the criteria for it to be classified as a ‘bombing cyclonic low’ at this latitude, sometimes referred to as a 'bomb cyclone'. This process of rapid and explosive intensification is a necessary condition in the formation of a high impact East Coast Low as we're seeing forming near the NSW coast. The Tasman Sea has seen several "bomb cyclones" in the past months through the formation of significant Tasman Lows meeting the rapid deepening threshold. This low will however be notable due to its proximity to the coastline, making it the first East Coast Low since July 2022. East Coast Low reaches peak intensity near Sydney On Tuesday morning, the East Coast Low was located east of the NSW Central Coast. It is forecast to edge slowly closer to Sydney and the Central coast during Tuesday, possibly coming within 100 kilometres of the coast. The central pressure of the system should reach its lowest value on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, possibly dropping to a central pressure value below 990 hPa. Image: forecast MSLP and 22-hour accumulated rainfall to 2am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. The proximity to the coast means that intense rain, damaging winds and hazardous surf are all being generated and sent into nearby areas to the south and west of the low. This includes most areas between Newcastle and Moruya, including Sydney and Wollongong. Heaviest rain shifting south of Sydney Heavy rain spread south across the Hunter on Monday night and into the Sydney region on Tuesday morning. Periods of heavy rainfall are still expected, most likely on Tuesday afternoon and again on Wednesday morning. However, the heaviest rainfalls are most likely further south into the Illawarra and South Coast. Accumulated falls of 40-60mm are still expected across most of the Sydney and Hunter region in the coming 24 hours or so into Wednesday, with isolated locations receiving up to 100mm. Image: Forecast 24-hour rainfall to 10am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, across central NSW. Heavy, intense and flooding rainfall for Illawarra and South Coast Areas north from Ulladulla saw rainfall intensify late on Monday night, amounting to 20-40mm of rainfall since, with the Jervis Bay area recording 70-120mm to 9am on Tuesday. Flooding rainfall is set to intensify on Tuesday afternoon, with a deep stream of moist southeasterly winds around the low converging with the local topography and opposing wind flow. As seen below, most of the Illawarra and South Coast regions and parts of the Southern Tablelands are expecting rainfall accumulations of 100-150mm over the next 24 hours, with areas between Jervis Bay and Bermagui seeing the potential for up to 300mm. Image: 24-hour rainfall and MSLP forecast to 10am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, across the NSW South Coast region. Powerful and damaging-to-destructive winds batter the coast As the East Coast Low reaches peak intensity on Tuesday and Wednesday, strong and powerful winds will impact much of eastern NSW. Wind gusts reaching 130 km/h are possible along the coastline south of about Seal Rocks, with gusts of 80-100 km/h also possible across a more widespread swath of NSW on and east of the Great Dividing Range. Image: 10m wind gusts at 1pm on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. The strong winds are whipping up large and unruly surf across the NSW coastline with a Coastal Hazard Warning in place for the coast between Moruya Heads and Seal Rocks. Severe Weather Warnings for heavy rain and damaging winds are likely to remain in place for parts of eastern NSW over the coming days. Check the latest warnings for the most up-to-date information.
30 Jun 2025, 3:12AM UTC
Coldest June nights in decades for Canberra, inland NSW
June nights were absolutely frigid in Canberra and parts of inland New South Wales, with average monthly minimums the coldest in decades in several locations. Let’s start with the national capital, which shivered through a June average minimum of –2.7°C, which made it the coldest June for overnight temperatures in 41 years. Canberra nights were 3.8°C degrees colder on average than the long-term June average minimum of 1.1°C. This was the largest anomaly anywhere in NSW or the ACT. In June 2025 in Canberra: 23 of the 30 minimum temperatures were below zero. The mercury fell to –5°C or lower on 11 nights, including two separate streaks of five nights in a row. The coldest night was –7.6°C on June 21 – the first of three consecutive nights when temperatures fell below –7°C. But Canberrans were not alone in needing heavy doonas. The coldest temperatures recorded anywhere in Australia so far this year were –10°C on June 21 at Goulburn Airport, about an hour northeast of Canberra, and the same temperature at Cooma on June 22. The average June 2025 minimum at Goulburn Airport was –2.2°C which was 3.6°C below the long-term average, while Cooma's average June minimum of –4°C was 2.7°C below average. And the chill extended much further north, with multiple locations on the Central and Northern Tablelands and nearby forecast districts experiencing colder-than-average nights in June, while many coastal and Sydney area weather stations were also significantly colder than usual at night. But the biggest anomalies across NSW and the ACT were in inland regions on the plains and tablelands. Image: Minimum temperatures across SE Australia for the final morning of June 2025, with dark blue areas showing temperatures in the range of 0°C to –4°C. These sorts of readings occurred frequently in many areas throughout the month, with the mercury often dipping even lower. Why such cold June nights in the ACT and large parts of NSW? Clear, windless conditions are the classic ingredients for cold frosty nights inland, and there were plenty of them in June. Canberra had slightly less than two thirds of its average June rainfall, while many other parts of inland NSW were also relatively dry. June also saw prolonged periods of very dry, cold air at the 850mb level, a low-level atmospheric pressure layer sitting approximately 1500m above sea level. This cold, dry air sank at night, causing temperature inversions (where the air is colder at lower altitudes than higher altitudes). A good example of a temperature inversion occurred on the night of June 21 (mentioned above) when Goulburn Airport plummeted to –10°C. That same night, Australia’s highest weather station at the top of Thredbo stayed above zero. Slightly warmer minimums can be expected across coastal and inland NSW this week with moist air driven onshore by winds circulating around the East Coast Low off the NSW coast.
30 Jun 2025, 1:18AM UTC
East Coast Low to bring flooding rain, gales, huge waves to eastern NSW
Warnings for strong to gale force winds, hazardous surf and flooding are in place across eastern NSW and southeast Queensland as an East Coast Low develops. A deepening coastal trough over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW has already brought widespread falls of 30 to 70mm over Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Dunwich Airport, on North Stradbroke Island, Queensland, collected 103mm in the 24 hours to 9am. Image: Satellite imagery showing a coastal trough across eastern Australia between Sunday, June 29, and Monday, June 30, 2025. Explosive cyclogenesis to spawn East Coast Low The coastal trough currently positioned off the NSW’s Northern Rivers will rapidly intensify through a process of explosive cyclogenesis. This explosive process means that the central pressure of the system is expected to drop rapidly from about 1015 hPa around midday on Monday, to about 993 hPa 24 hours later on Tuesday. The drop of over 20 hPa in 24 hours classifies the system as a bombing low, exceeding the required 15 hPa drop at this latitude. Video: forecast Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and 6-hour rainfall between Monday, June 30 and Sunday, July 6, 2025. As mentioned in our previous article on what makes an East Coast Low, this rapid intensification comes as a result of a number of factors, including: Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Baroclinic instability (a large termperature difference in air masses) A blocking high pressure system An upper trough over the Great Dividing Range Where will be most affected and when? As the ECL develops over the coming 24 hours, moisture wrapping around the low will shift southwards. As seen in the image below, most weather models focus the heaviest rainfall around the Mid North Coast and parts of the Hunter, with150-200mm over a period of 24-36 hours to early Wednesday. Winds will also intensify overnight into Tuesday, most likely south of Coffs Harbour. Image: MSLP and 24-hour rainfall accumulation at 1pm on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, according to ECMWF (top left), GFS (top right), UKMO (bottom left) and ACCESS-G (bottom right). East Coast Low reaches peak intensity From midday on Tuesday, extending into Wednesday, the ECL is expected to reach its peak intensity in close proximity to the coast with the central pressure expected to drop to around 980 to 985 hPa. Much of coastal NSW between Batemans Bay and Port Macquarie is at risk of experiencing wind gusts exceeding 100km/h on Wednesday morning, with areas on and east of the Great Dividing Range also experiencing strong winds. Image: Forecast 10 metre wind gusts at 10am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Flooding rainfall reaches Sydney and Illawarra Intense heavy rainfall will shift southwards into the Sydney and Illawarra regions from about midday on Tuesday, reaching its peak intensity overnight into Wednesday morning. Another burst of moisture and rainfall will sweep over southeastern NSW between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning as an arm of the ECL moves inland. Across the coming 48-60 hours, widespread falls of 150-250mm are expected south of about Port Macquarie, with more intense deluges of 300-400mm possible across parts of the Illawarra and Shoalhaven regions between Monday and Thursday evening. Image: Rainfall accumulations across NSW to 10pm on Thursday, July 3, 2025, according to ECMWF (top left), GFS (top right), UKMO (bottom left) and ACCESS-G (bottom right). Powerful and hazardous surf Along with the rain, the powerful winds wrapping around the ECL will generate large and hazardous surf, likely leading to significant erosion in some areas of coastal NSW. Significant wave heights of 5 to 6 metres are expected across coasts between Seal Rocks and Batemans Bay, with large waves extending further south and north. Maximum wave heights of 11 to 13 metres are also expected over a similar region. Image: OneFX forecast Significant Wave Heights at 10am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Wave energy coming from the east will significantly enhance coastal erosion, especially across parts of the Central Coast, Sydney and Illawarra which are more exposed to most of this energy. Fortunately, the high tides next week will only be moderate in height with the neap tide occurring later in the week. Image: Erosion prone beaches, like Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, are in a vulnerable state ahead of this week's swell. Source: Felix Levesque. When will the weather clear? The East Coast Low is expected to move east further into the Tasman Sea on Thursday afternoon, with heavy rain and strong winds gradually easing as it does so. By late on Thursday, or early on Friday, most of the rain should be offshore, with winds abating as well. The swell is expected to remain large into Friday, but should ease significantly into the weekend. Keep up to date with the latest warnings and our news feed for updates on the Weatherzone warnings page.