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A vigorous cold front is generating very strong winds & showers across southwest WA, along with the odd thunderstorm. A high is causing most showers to clear in SA, Vic, the ACT & NSW. The high is also keeping the remainder of the country mostly clear, leading to a chilly night.
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Today, 3:01AM UTC
Series of cold fronts to bring four days of severe weather
A cold, wet and windy week lies ahead for much of southern Australia, with two bursts of snow heading towards the mainland alpine region. This promises to be a classic week of wild, wintry weather, with high pressure systems situated far enough north over the interior of the continent to allow powerful surges of polar air to penetrate northwards. Monday: the first front lashes WA The first front has already swept through southwest WA, with wind gusts approaching 120 km/h recorded at exposed coastal weather stations. The Perth CBD received 13.8mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am Monday (AWST), with 39.2mm at Bickley, an elevated suburb on the city’s eastern fringe. The highest total in the South West Land Division was 51mm at Mt William, about 90 minutes south of Perth. Tuesday: the WA front marches east As the cold front currently crossing Western Australia streams across the country, it will tend to slide towards the southeast. However it will stay far enough north to deliver rainfall and very strong winds on Tuesday to southern parts of SA and NSW, as well as most of Victoria and Tasmania. Image: Predicted rainfall across southern Australia from Monday morning through to 10pm Tuesday according to the ECMWF model. Showers should fall as snow in the alpine area down to an elevation of about 1200m from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with possible snowfall totals in the range of 10cm to 30cm. Wednesday: a stronger cold front approaches On Wednesday, a stronger front approaches. This one will bypass southwestern WA, but the southeast of the country will cop a direct hit of very cold, windy weather. Image: Chart showing a surge of air from the south with moisture affecting the South Australian coastline and adjacent areas associated with a stronger cold front on Wednesday evening. Adelaide will be the first city to feel the chill of this strong system, with maximums of just 13°C and 14°C respectively on Wednesday and Thursday. The airmass will likely be cold enough for snow in SA’s Flinders Ranges later on Wednesday, should sufficient moisture make it that far north. A snowflake or two could even fall on the 710m summit of Mount Lofty, just 25 minutes’ drive from the Adelaide CBD. Thursday: significant snowfalls in the alpine region Thursday morning is when the week’s heaviest snowfalls are due in the alpine resorts of NSW and Victoria. Very welcome snowfall totals of 20cm to 40cm are likely up high, with snow falling to elevations as low as 800m. Snow showers can also be expected in elevated areas beyond the mountains like the NSW Central Tablelands. As showers and frigid westerlies lash Melbourne on Thursday, the Victorian capital is set for one of its coldest days of 2025 to date, with a maximum of just 11°C on the cards. Canberrans will also shiver with a maximum of 9°C expected. Looking further ahead, conditions will start to moderate on Friday and Saturday in most of the areas mentioned. However, there’s the potential for yet another outbreak of polar air with more wind, rain and snow at higher elevations across southeastern Australia to start off next week. For now, expect two distinct bouts of cold and potentially severe weather across most parts of southern Australia this week. Only areas east of the Great Dividing Range will be spared from the bleakest weather. For example, Sydney should be cool but mostly dry all week. Please check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest warnings.
Today, 1:36AM UTC
Damaging winds battering WA
A cold front will continue to cause damaging winds over the southwest of WA today, following a separate system that brought wind gusts of close to 120 km/h on Sunday. The satellite image below shows two bands of cloud over southwestern Australia. The northern-most band of cloud is the remnants of a cold front that crossed the region on Sunday. The other band of cloud is a second cold front, which will spread over WA’s southwestern districts on Monday. Image: Satellite image showing clouds over southwestern Australia shortly after sunrise on Monday, July 7, 2025. The first in this pair of powerful cold fronts caused damaging winds on Sunday, including gusts of 119 km/h at Cape Leeuwin and 100 km/h at Cape Naturaliste. While conditions eased on Sunday night in the wake of the first front, the arrival of the second front caused wind to pick up again on Monday morning. In the hours prior to 9am AWST on Monday, gusts had already reached 93 km/h at Rottnest Island, 91km/h at Busselton and 100 km/h at Cape Leeuwin. The front crossing southwestern Australia on Monday will be stronger than the system that arrived on Sunday and likely the strongest front so far this year for the region. It should also bring some of the coldest weather so far this year. The temperature in Albany was only 10.2°C at 9:40am and could struggle to reach its forecast top of 14°C on Monday, which would make this their coldest day of 2025 to date. Perth is forecast to reach a top of 16°C on Tuesday, which will be the city's coldest day so far this year if it stays below 16.1°C. These systems will also bring showers to a broad area of southern and western WA on Monday, possibly reaching north to the Gascoyne and east to the SA border. This follows 30 to 50 mm of rain along the Darling Range during the 24 hours to 9am on Monday, including 51 mm at Mt William, 44 mm at Dwellingup (its heaviest rain in one year) and 39 mm at Bickley. The map below shows how much rain is expected to fall on Monday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain on Monday, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Wind and rain will ease over WA later on Monday and into Tuesday morning as the cold front moves further east. Anyone in southwestern Australia on Monday or Tuesday morning should keep a close eye on the latest severe weather warnings.
06 Jul 2025, 1:24AM UTC
Flash floods devastate Texas, what happened?
Fig. 1) Radar observations of rainfall on the 6th of July from 1:10 to 1:30 UTC (National Weather Service, NWS) On the eve of America’s annual celebration of the 4th of July, the Guadalupe River in southern Texas rose 26 feet (almost 8 meters) within the span of up to an hour, depending on the location. The banks of the river flooded, leading to devastating flash flooding for the Texas Hills. Rescue teams are still working to save and locate as many people as possible following this deadly flash flood event. The torrential rains which led to the rapid rising of the Guadalupe River weren’t instantaneous. In the final days of June, Tropical Storm Barry crossed southeast Mexico. But due to a less than optimal set up, Barry was short-lived and unorganised. The tropical remnants of Barry were picked up and carried northward, where it interacted with the local storm activity of inland northern Mexico. An area of low pressure developed around Kerr County, Texas (about 140km northwest of San Antonio), which pulled this unstable and moisture-laden airmass over the Texas Hills. From the 2nd of July, heavy rainfalls were falling over the state’s south, but as the system slowed, rainfall rates increased to 2 to 4 inches an hour (50-100mm/h). Fig. 1) Estimated rainfall over the past 2 days over the Texas Hills with a marker indicating the locations of Kerr County The already saturated soils couldn’t hold this increased rate of rainfall, and so runoff into the Guadalupe River consequently increased from the Hills, leading to the flash flooding observed that evening. The lack of a significant dry spell between rain events (see comparison for observed rainfall over 1,3,7 days) and a slow-moving low pressure system being fed by tropical moisture, created the environment for one of the deadliest flooding events the US has seen. Fig. 2) Estimated rainfall over the past day (left), 3-days (centre) and 7-days (right) over Texas (NWS) Portions of the Hill country and Texas’ southeast are still under a Flood Watch, with parts of at least 8 counties still with Flash Flood Warnings as more rain is expected in the area (widespread rainfall of another 30-80mm and local falls of up to 130mm). Fig. 3) Flood Watch for the 5th of July by the NWS Fig. 4) Flash Flood Warning for the 5th of July by the NWS and NOAA