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A moist, unstable airmass brings showers & storms to southeast Qld and northeast NSW. A cold front brushes SA and Vic with patchy rain, while moist winds also bring showers to Tas. Mostly dry under high pressure elsewhere.
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18 Jul 2025, 5:23AM UTC
Prolonged cold wet spell for southwest WA
Perth and the whole of Western Australia’s South West Land Division is facing a spell of heavy showers and chilly temperatures lasting several days from Sunday onwards, with potentially the coldest day of the year at many locations on Monday. Up to 50mm of rain could fall between Sunday and Thursday, with possible localised rainfall totals approaching 100mm at some coastal spots. Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation in southwest WA from Friday, July 18 to Thursday, July 24 according to the ECMWF model. While this rain will make outdoors activities uncomfortable next week, it will be welcomed by many locals, especially in Perth and further north into the wheat belt. While some spots in the far southwestern tip of WA have enjoyed extremely heavy rainfall so far this winter, totals have tended to drop off markedly from about Perth northwards. For example Busselton, just over 200km south of Perth, had a very healthy 163.8mm in June (monthly average 122.2mm) and has already had 192.8mm in July (monthly average 136.1mm). But Perth itself is yet to reach its average monthly rainfall total in any month thus far in 2025, even though June came close with 119mm (monthly average 127.1mm). In the wheatbelt town of Northam, about 100km NE of Perth, the 2025 winter rainfall has been well down on average to date, with a running total of just 56.6mm (the seasonal average is 218.9mm). So the story of winter 2025 to date in the South West Land Division is that solid rain is still very much needed in many areas, especially north of Perth. But the ongoing story is that rain is always welcome at any location, given the historically dry conditions in recent years. The map below shows rainfall deficiencies in Australia in the 27 months from the start of April 2023 to the end of June this year. As you can see, southwest WA has been one of the driest parts of the country along with parts of southern SA, western Vic and western Tas. Image: Rainfall deficiencies in the 27 months to the end of June, 2025. Source: BoM. That’s why a classic winter cold front of the type we’ll see approaching later this weekend is always welcome. Our predicted synoptic chart for Monday shows the front surging northwards, ushering in an unstable polar airmass. Image: Predicted surface level pattern for Australia at 10am on Monday, July 21, 2025. Perth is heading for a maximum of just 15°C on Monday, while the mercury at many places inland or further south will peak closer to just 10°C. A little snow is even possible on the Stirling Range near Albany early on Monday morning. The Stirling Range’s highest point is Bluff Knoll (1099m) and light snow tends to be recorded there at least once each year.
18 Jul 2025, 12:42AM UTC
Deepest July Australian snowpack in four years
It has been a mediocre week for snowfalls in the Australian mainland alpine region, but despite only minor top-ups since last weekend, the snow depth is the best for July since 2021. The depth at Spencers Creek (elevation 1830m, roughly halfway between the NSW resorts of Perisher and Thredbo) was around 160cm this Friday, July 18. Here's how that compares to the officially recorded peak depth at Spencers Creek in July over the last four years: 2024: 124.6cm on July 30 (also the season peak) 2023: 131cm on July 13 (also the season peak) 2022: 129.5cm on July 27 (the season kept improving with a late peak of 232cm on September 20) 2021: 183.6cm on July 29 (the season peak) Image: Snowy Hydro uses two data sets. One is the average of a series of manual measurements. The second is a remote automated daily reading as shown above. Source: Snowy Hydro. While the cold fronts in recent days have generally peaked too far south for significant mainland snow, it has been a different story in Tasmania. Snow fell to low elevations at times across Tasmania this week and is set to do so again in coming days. A snow level as low as 500m is expected by Sunday, with a cold front that will largely bypass the mainland. Image: This cabin in Tasmania’s Central Highlands was not the worst spot to cosy up with a good book this week. Source: Erin McGrath (@ezzamcgrath on Instagram). Looking further ahead, next week looks to be relatively warm in the mainland Australian high country, with some likely rain at all elevations with a system due on Tuesday. The highest peaks could be in for a few fresh flakes early on Wednesday in the tail-end of the system. By the end of next week, there’s an indication of a much stronger, snowier system on the models however it’s too early to call that one with any confidence. Image: Snow forecast in Miena, Tas, at 2:00am AEST on Sunday, July 20, as seen in the hourly graphs on the Weatherzone app. For the latest forecasts, cams and more, don’t forget to check the Weatherzone snow page throughout the 2025 season.
17 Jul 2025, 3:02AM UTC
Another relatively dry cold front teases Victoria
The cooler months are when large parts of Victoria can expect their most consistent rainfall of the year, but it’s fair to say that the first half of winter 2025 has not delivered in many areas. The front crossing the state this Thursday is a good example of a system which is failing to deliver significant rainfall. You can see the cloudband associated with the front on the four-hour radar loop below. Most of the moisture (the green radar blobs) is impacting Tasmania, which is in the midst of a wet and snowy week. Image: Combined satellite and radar loop on the morning of Thursday, July 17, 2025. In the 24 hours to 9am Thursday, only relatively light falls (of 10mm or less) were recorded at most locations in Victoria. Between 9am and midday this Thursday as the cold front crossed central Vic and Melbourne, rainfall totals were also not high. Only Wilsons Promontory (the state’s southernmost point) and Cape Otway (the southernmost point west of Melbourne) topped 3mm. This illustrates how the heaviest rainfall associated with this system is much further south towards Tasmania – due to a high pressure ridge over the mainland blocking the northwards march of the cold front and cutting off any potential tropical moisture feed from the north. Meanwhile, Melbourne CBD appears to have ducked any measurable rainfall thus far today, with only light totals below 2mm in some suburbs. In Victoria’s far northwest corner, the city of Mildura has not seen a drop of rain for over a week now, with only 5.2mm in the gauge for July 2025 to date, as its severe rainfall deficiencies continue. Image: Every month so far in 2025 has seen below-average rainfall in Mildura and July continues the trend for now. The severe recent rainfall deficiencies in western, northern and central Victoria (as well as large parts of southern SA) over the past 17 months are captured in the image below. Image: Rainfall deficiencies across southern Australia for the 17 months to the end of June 2025. Source: BoM. The positive news is that the BoM’s latest climate outlook (published July 10) holds promise for significant rainfall in dry parts of Victoria through late winter into early spring. According to the BoM, above-average rainfall is likely (a 60 to 80% chance) for much of the eastern two thirds of Australia. There is even an “increased chance of unusually high rainfall” for parts of Victoria and southern SA. So while today’s cold front is teasing rain-starved parts of Victoria with cold winds and grey skies without much in the way of moisture, frontal systems in coming months may be considerably wetter before October ushers in a likely return to drier conditions.