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Today, 2:02AM UTC
Sydney on track for hottest October on record
Sydney’s daytime temperatures during the first half of October have been so hot that they would be above average in January, at the height of summer. This unseasonable heat has put the city on track to register its hottest October on record, with a maximum temperature anomaly that could even eclipse any other month in the city’s 168-year history. October off to a summer-like start While October is usually a month of warming daytime temperatures in Sydney, this month has been exceptionally warm for the middle of spring. Sydney’s average maximum temperature during the first 15 days of October was around 27.2°C, which is well above the city’s long-term monthly average of 22.2°C. This hot start to the month, which included four days above 30°C and none cooler than 22.7°C, was Sydney’s hottest first half of October on record. Why has it been so warm in Sydney? One of the main reasons for Sydney’s record-breaking hot start to October was an abundance of westerly and north-westerly winds. These offshore winds – meaning they blow from land to sea – have been carrying warm air from western NSW towards the coast over the past two weeks. This warm offshore wind pattern has also been dry, with the city only receiving 4.2 mm of rain in the first half of the month. For context, Sydney would usually see about 78 mm of rain during a typical October. The prominence of westerly winds over eastern NSW this month has been driven by a prolonged negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Under a negative SAM, westerly winds usually become more prominent over NSW and the easterly winds that cause cloud and rain along the coast become weaker and less frequent. The stubborn negative SAM that has underpinned Sydney’s abnormally hot start to October has been a response to a rare episode of stratospheric warming that unfolded high above Antarctica in late September and early October. These stratospheric warming events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere and their influence on Australian weather is still an active area of research. More warm weather on the way for Sydney Sydney will continue to see abnormally warm weather in the back half of October under the ongoing influence of the negative SAM. In the coming week alone, two bursts of heat will impact Sydney and other areas of NSW as very hot inland air spreads towards the east ahead of low pressure troughs and cold fronts. Image: Sydney’s daily forecasts in the Weatherzone app showing more warm days ahead. Friday should see the mercury climb to about 31 to 32°C in Sydney, but cloud cover and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon could cool the city off quite rapidly. This burst of heat will be short-lived, with an evening southerly change bringing more definite cooling into the weekend. Another hot inland airmass will then be drawn into NSW at the start of next week. This surge of hot and dry northwesterly winds could see temperatures on Monday reaching around 33 to 34°C in Sydney’s CBD and closer to 37 to 38°C in the western suburbs. Image: Forecast maximum temperatures on Monday, October 20, 2025. Unlike Friday, cooling relief will be delayed as cloud cover moves over eastern NSW later on Monday, bringing a very warm night extending into Tuesday morning. Temperatures should remain in the high-20s until late Monday and will only drop to about 22 to 23°C on Tuesday morning, before a cooling southerly arrives later in the day. On track to break records Daytime maximum temperatures in Sydney will most likely remain near or above average for the remainder of October. Based on current computer model guidance, Sydney’s average maximum temperature for the month could come in somewhere around 26.5°C, which is 4.3°C above the long-term average. If this happens, it will break the record for the warmest October on record in Sydney, beating 26.2°C from 1988. This would also become the largest monthly maximum temperature anomaly ever recorded in Sydney, surpassing +4.2°C from September 2013. Sydney’s maximum temperature records date back to 1859.
14 Oct 2025, 6:16AM UTC
45C possible in Australia this weekend
Temperatures are set to soar across the Australian outback this weekend, with parts of South Australia possibly hitting 45°C on Sunday. A large mass of hot air is currently building over WA, causing temperatures to reach the low forties in the state’s north. In the Pilbara, which is no stranger to hot weather at this time of year, Mardie reached 43.5°C on Monday and Tuesday, which is 8°C above average for an October day. Image: Clear skies over WA allowed heat to build on Tuesday. This heat will spread towards the south in the middle of this week, causing temperatures to reach close to 40°C at Eucla on the south coast of WA. Another more intense round of heat will then sweep across central and southern Australia on the weekend as northerly winds strengthen ahead of an approaching low pressure trough. Some forecast models suggest that temperatures will reach around 44 to 45°C in SA this weekend, with the hottest day currently expected to be on Sunday. The maps below show one computer model’s prediction for the maximum temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Image: Forecast maximum temperature on Saturday, October 18, 2025. Image: Forecast maximum temperature on Sunday, October 19, 2025. The highest temperature ever recorded in Australia during October was 46.9°C at Port Hedland in 2002, while SA’s highest October temperature was 45.4°C at Oodnadatta in 1995. Temperatures could challenge the SA record this weekend, with parts of the state’s North West Pastoral District forecast to reach 45°C on Sunday. The last two times anywhere in Australia reached 45°C this early in October were in 2014 and 2004. The upcoming heat will also help to cause High to Extreme fire danger ratings in parts of southern Australia over the coming days.
14 Oct 2025, 5:44AM UTC
Prolonged Top End heatwave as Australia’s most reliable cloud appears
Two interesting meteorological phenomena are occurring this week in the Northern Territory’s Top End: an ongoing heatwave, and the seasonal appearance of "Hector the Convector" – a storm cloud that develops over the Tiwi Islands north of Darwin at roughly the same time every day for months on end. The heatwave While most southerners would consider the Top End hot year-round, and while October and November are on average the hottest months for maximum temperatures at many locations, the region will be even hotter than usual this week. From Wednesday onwards, Darwin is expected to reach 35°C or 36°C for at least the next six days. The October average maximum is 33.4°C. Away from the sea breeze in the NT’s third-largest population centre of Katherine, three hours southeast of Darwin, temperatures should nudge 40°C by the end of the week. The October average maximum is 37.6°C. Minimum temperatures at the above locations will also be a degree above average or slightly higher in the week ahead, prompting the BoM to declare a low intensity heatwave at present – with the heatwave forecast rising to severe and even extreme at some locations by the end of the week. This is based on the BoM’s definition of heatwaves as a period of three or more consecutive days during which maximum and minimum temperatures are "unusually hot". Hector the Convector Image: "Hector the Convector" can be seen forming over the Tiwi Islands in this three-hour radar and satellite loop to 2:50pm (ACST). Thunderstorm clouds form when warm, moisture-laden air rises into higher levels of the atmosphere, then cools as it gets higher. This causes water vapour to condense into liquid drops, producing cloud. Hector the Convector ("convection" means the vertical rising of air) was named by pilots during World War II who used it for navigation when flying near the Top End, noting how reliable it was in its appearance. When sea breezes flow over the Tiwi Islands from all directions and clash in the elevated interior of the islands, Hector forms as the converging breezes force air to rise, creating a column of warm and moist air that produces a towering cumulonimbus cloud. Melville Island – the largest of the Tiwi Islands – cannot quite be seen from Darwin as it’s approximately 60 km north of the city. However, Hector can often be spotted above the island with its towering cumulus clouds, while air passengers flying in and out of Darwin Airport often get a good glimpse too.