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Today, 5:03AM UTC
East Coast Low brewing for coastal NSW next week
Heavy rain, intense winds and large surf could impact eastern NSW next week as a significant low pressure system develops off the coast, with potential for an East Coast Low. East Coast Lows (ECL) are a type of low pressure systems that rapidly form and stay within close proximity to the east coast of Australia for at least 24 hours. ECLs produce damaging-to-destructive winds, heavy and intense rainfall, flooding, and/or powerful and erosive surf. Past major ECLs include the June 2016 storm that eroded Collaroy Beach, the Pasha Bulker storm in June 2007 and the Sygna storm in May 1974. The last ECL to impact Australia was in June 2024. Where will be most impacted? A coastal trough will deepen off the northern NSW coast next Monday, June 30. Showers and fresh winds could intensify into heavy and potentially flooding rainfall, and damaging winds as the system develops into a potential ECL somewhere near the NSW coastline on Tuesday, July 1. Video: 6-hourly rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) between Monday, June 30, and Saturday, July 5, according to the ECMWF model. All models have a significant low developing off the NSW coast from the coastal trough on Tuesday, July 1, but as seen in the image below, uncertainty regarding the proximity and intensity remains elevated. Image: MSLP and 24-hour rainfall accumulation at 1am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, according to ECMWF (top left), GFS (top right), UKMO (bottom left) and ACCESS-G (bottom right). The European ECMWF model (top left) shows a strong ECL impacting the NSW coast south of Port Macquarie. The US GFS model (top right) has the low further offshore, with intense rainfall still affecting parts of the Mid North Coast and Hunter. The Australia ACCESS-G and the UKMO UM models (bottom left and right) favour the formation of a Tasman Low well off the coast, rather than a ECL within proximity of coastal NSW. Rainfall accumulations of 100-200mm are possible over a period of 36-48 hours to Thursday next week, across parts of the Mid North Coast and Hunter, possibly extending as far south as the South Coast. The deep feed of moisture coming off the Tasman Sea could interact with local topography around the Mid North Coast, Hunter and Central Coast, with rainfall totals reaching 300mm possible in some parts. Image: Rainfall accumulations across NSW to 10pm on Thursday, July 3, 2025, according to ECMWF (top left), GFS (top right), UKMO (bottom left) and ACCESS-G (bottom right). Winds will strengthen over the southern flank of the system on Tuesday, with the strongest winds most likely between Forster and Jervis Bay. Winds will reach peak strength later on Tuesday and across most of Wednesday as the system intensifies rapidly. Wind gusts exceeding 100km/h are possible across coastal NSW, most likely between Coffs Harbour and Jervis Bay, and possibly extending into early Thursday before the system moves further east. Image: 10 metre wind gusts at 10am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, according to ECMWF. The strong winds wrapping into the low pressure system will generate very large waves across the Tasman Sea. Significant wave heights of 5 to 6 metres are expected over coastal parts of the Sydney, Central Coast, Hunter and Mid North Coast regions between late Tuesday and Thursday. Maximum wave heights reaching 11 to 13 metres are also possible. Image: Significant wave height forecast at 9am on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Most of the wave energy is expected from the east to southeast direction. Large waves from the east have a much greater potential to cause significant coastal erosion, especially across known erosion hotspots like Collaroy Beach on Sydney’s Northern Beaches, and Wamberal Beach on the Central Coast. Fortunately, the high tides next week will only be moderate in height with the neap tide occurring later in the week. Image: Subsequent Tasman Lows have left erosion prone beaches, like Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, in a vulnerable state ahead of next week's swell. Source: Felix Levesque What makes an East Coast Low (ECL)? Some of the key ingredients for potential ECL intensification include: 1. Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): A warm Tasman Sea provides the developing ECL with moisture and rising air. The images below show a warm tongue of 22-23°C waters (left image) extending down the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and Hunter coastlines with the East Australia Current (EAC). These waters are 2-2.5°C warmer than average for this time of year (right image). Images: SST (left) and SST anomalies (right) off the NSW coast on June 26, 2025. Source: BoM 2. Baroclinic instability: Air usually grades from warm to cold towards the poles. When surges of cold air move equatorward, like the cold air (blue) seen over inland NSW in the image below, baroclinic instability increases. This causes air to rise along the boundary of the two airmasses and winds start to rotate. This "spins up" the low pressure system faster, leading to rapid intensification. Image: 1000-500 hPa thickness and Mean Sea Level Pressure at 7am on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Video: 1000-500 hPa thickness and Mean Sea Level Pressure from 10am on Monday, June 30, 2025 to 4pm on Friday, July 4, 2025, showing the rapid intensification of the low near the NSW coast. 3. A blocking high pressure system: Having a broad and strong high over the Tasman Sea keeps the low pressure system close to the coast, prolonging and increasing the adverse weather. At this stage, high pressure is expected in the lower Tasman Sea, but some models have a weaker high, causing the low to develop further away from the coast and slipping east sooner, limiting its impacts over coastal NSW. Lows that form further offshore are called Tasman Lows. Image: Synoptic Chart on the Weatherzone app for Wednesday, July 2, 2025, showing the deep low in the Tasman Sea, with a blocking high extending over New Zealand. 4. An upper trough over the Great Dividing Range: This helps rising air move from the surface low into the upper troposphere, where it’s transported over the surface high pressure and brought back down towards the surface. This process lowers the surface low pressure, and increases the pressure of the high. Intensification of both the surface low and high causes winds driven by the pressure difference to intensify as well. Image: Upper level trough located over the Great Dividing Range on Tuesday, July 1, according to ECMWF. As seen above, the atmosphere and ocean conditions are primed for the formation of a significant low pressure system in the Tasman Sea. Uncertainty mostly remains as to how close to the coast this low may form, which will be the defining factor on whether we see our first East Coast Low of the season, or another of the numerous Tasman Lows already seen since March. Consider preparing now for severe weather next week, and keep up to date with the latest warnings and our news feed for updates at: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/warnings
26 Jun 2025, 3:02AM UTC
Central NSW wakes up to winter wonderland
Skies are clearing in the wake of a powerful polar blast that swept across southeastern Australia, bringing significant snowfalls to central New South Wales and Alpine resorts, damaging winds and now bitterly cold mornings. Image: Satellite imagery on Wednesday afternoon shows a sea of cold-air cumulus surging up from Antartica, a clear sign of a strong cold front crossing southeastern Australia. Wednesday's surge of cold air delivered powerful winds across the southeast, and particularly the east coast. Most of the Hunter, Central Coast, Greater Sydney and Illawarra regions saw winds gusts above 80km/h, topping out at 115km/h at Bellambi—its strongest wind gust in 14 years. The strongest winds from the whole event were recorded at the exposed Hogan Island in Bass Strait, reaching 146km/h. Image: Snow settling on some garden beds in Oberon overnight. Source: @farm2finger / Instagram The combination of cold air and moisture provided the perfect recipe for snow in central NSW as well as the Alpine resorts in southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania. An estimated 2-5cm of snow fell over the Central Tablelands overnight, with a few flakes also seen over the Upper Blue Mountains. As the skies cleared on Thursday morning, the extent of the wintry conditions could be seen on satellite. Image: Sunrise on Thursday morning reveals the snow on the ground over the Central Tablelands. With clear skies under high pressure now replacing the snow clouds, overnight temperatures have plummeted across the region. The Alps were particularly cold, even by their standards. Some standouts from Thursday morning include: Cabramurra: -5.7°C (coldest June morning in 16 years) Combienbar: 1.4°C (coldest June morning in 10 years) Mt Ginini: -7.0°C (coldest June morning in 9 years) Mt Hotham: -6.8°C (coldest June morning in 9 years) Hunters Hill: -2.1°C (coldest June morning in 9 years) Thredbo Top Station: -8.0°C (coldest over Australia last night) Friday and Saturday mornings are set to become even colder across most of the southeast and extending up to southern Qld, with the chilly weather lasting for at least the remainder of the month. Image: Forecast minimum temperatures for Friday morning Canberra is set for another cold spell, with a forecast of minimums around –5°C for the next four mornings, much like its coldest week in 60 years that it saw last week. With this end to the month, Canberra is likely to see its coldest June for minimum temperatures since at least 1984. While the mornings are likely to stay cold for several days, daytime temperatures will increase each day, being generally a degree or two warmer than average over the coming weekend.
26 Jun 2025, 2:33AM UTC
Negative IOD emerges - what does this mean for Australia?
Signals of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing in the coming months could bring increased risk of heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms and tropical cyclones to northern Australia and Indonesia. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) The IOD is a measure of the difference in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Indian Ocean. A negative IOD occurs when cooler-than-average water sits on the western side of the Indian Ocean, near the Horn of Africa, and warmer-than-average water lies on the eastern side of the Indian Ocean, near Indonesia. A positive IOD is the opposite of this pattern (cooler water in the east, warmer in the west). Each phase of the IOD also influences atmospheric conditions above the Indian Ocean and surrounding countries. For Australia and Indonesia, a negative IOD typically increases the likelihood of above average rain over large areas, while also promoting cooler days in Australia’s south and east with increased cloud cover. Image: typical oceanic and atmospheric patterns during a negative IOD. IOD events typically occur between May and November and break down when the Australian monsoon arrives in late spring or early summer. The IOD dips into negative values Image: IOD index over the past 26 months since April 2023. The IOD index dropped below zero in the first week of June. This is the first time values have gone negative since January 2025. The drop comes following cooling over the western Indian Ocean, near the Horn of Africa, and Arabian Sea, with the strengthening of the Indian Southwest Monsoon. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean and the IOD monitoring regions on June 24, 2025. Source: NOAA Last year briefly saw negative IOD conditions during October and November, however this was too short-lived to be considered a negative IOD event. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are expected to warm further in and around the IOD East region, near Indonesia, in the coming months. Image: Forecast SST anomalies across the Indian Ocean for September 2025. This should help tip the IOD index further into the negative values, especially around August and September. How could a negative IOD impact Australia and Indonesia? This forecast IOD event could be later than usual, with most IOD events typically occurring between May and November, before breaking down when the monsoon moves over Indonesia in late spring or early summer. With increased moisture from the warm SST to the northwest of Australia, near Indonesia, a negative IOD brings increased risk of above average rainfall to much of Australia’s north, interior and southeast. This usually occurs through the formation of northwest cloudbands, sending moisture across the continent. Image: Typical changes to rainfall when a negative IOD occurs between August and October. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The added cloud cover can also lead to cooler days (and milder nights) over southern and eastern Australia during a negative IOD event. Image: Typical changes to maximum temperature when a negative IOD occurs between August and October. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The localised very warm waters near Indonesia will promote increased potential for heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides. As a result, the wet season could get started early for parts of Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan. Video: Forecast rainfall anomalies for each month between July and November 2025. The nearby warm SST could also promote above average rainfall, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones for northern Australia during late spring and the summer months, even if the potential negative IOD ends before then. There are several indicators suggesting that we could see this negative IOD event developing later this winter; however, models remain at about a 50% chance of the IOD either remaining neutral or turning negative.