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An area of low pressure over the NT's southeast, Qld's southwest, northwest NSW & eastern SA is generating showers & storms. A firm high pressure ridge is driving onshore winds & showers along the coastal areas of Qld, NSW & eastern Vic.
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Today, 2:39AM UTC
Increasing likelihood of widespread rainfall across most states
An unusual weather pattern for late autumn will bring rain to large parts of central and eastern Australia later this week and into next week, potentially delivering the highest totals in many months to some parched areas. This is not a typical late autumn set-up. At this time of year, high pressure systems usually drift north, allowing cold fronts embedded in the band of mid-latitude westerlies in the Southern Ocean to push cool air and moisture over the southern portion of the country. But the large, slow moving high pressure system currently centred over waters near Tasmania is blocking systems from the south. As air circulates anti-clockwise around the high, an easterly flow is dampening the east coast, with drier conditions inland. Image: Mean sea level pressure and precipitable water across Australia for this Friday, May 15, 2026, showing the high pressure system centred well southeast of the mainland. Source: Weatherzone. In the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, some handy falls of 25mm or more were recorded along the east coast, all the way from the Hunter region, just north of Sydney, to parts of Far North Queensland near Cairns. As the persistent easterly flow interacts with a trough over Australia’s interior, widespread inland rain is expected to develop. Let’s break down the rainfall potential in coming days in each state: South Australia Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across South Australia by 9:30am (ACST) this coming Saturday, May 16, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. As the map above shows, rainfall could develop across much of South Australia, especially the eastern portion of the state, by Saturday. Adelaide rarely sees rain arrive from the northeast, an occurrence which is most common during a La Niña. (Currently, Australia is in a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, meaning there is no La Niña or El Niño. An El Niño is expected to develop in Australia before the end of winter.) But from Friday onwards, Adelaide’s wettest spell of the year could set in with rain arriving from the northeast. Victoria Our southernmost mainland state could see useful rain in most areas, with the lightest falls in Gippsland in the east. Melbourne is most likely to see showers from Sunday through to Tuesday. As you’d expect with a weather event where winds have a northerly aspect, days in Melbourne will remain relatively mild. To date this month, Melbourne’s average maximum has been more than two degrees above the May average maximum of 16.8°C. New South Wales/ACT Image: Rainfall deciles for NSW from January to April, 2026. Source: BoM. By the end of the weekend into early next week, this system has the potential to bring the first significant rainfall in months to parts of the state’s north and northeast which are shaded red in the map above. Western, central and most eastern parts of the state can also expect handy rain. For Sydney, expect a continuation of this week’s showery weather – with any rain arriving from almost the opposite direction to this week’s southeasterlies. Canberra can also expect a useful drop next week, after an almost totally dry first two weeks of May. Tasmania Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across Tasmania by 10pm (AEST) next Tuesday, May 19, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. The northwest and the state's west coast can expect heavier rain than the rest of Tasmania, with rainfall accumulation tapering off in the southeast corner. While Hobart can expect some showers early next week, it won’t do a lot to alleviate the recent dry spell, in which four of the last five full months have seen below-average rainfall totals. Queensland Image: Predicted rainfall accumulation across Queensland by 10pm (AEST) next Tuesday, May 19, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. This system should deliver rainfall to parts of western and eastern Queensland, with central parts of the state appearing likely to miss out on significant falls at this stage. Birdsville, in the state’s normally parched southwest corner, has had an interesting rainfall year, with a record 177mm in February and further handy rain in March. The town’s average May rainfall is just 8.4mm, but that total could be exceeded on Sunday alone. Brisbane's showery spell is also likely to continue into the new week. Northern Territory Locations in the southern NT like Alice Springs and possibly even Yulara (the town near Uluru) appear likely to see meaningful rain for at least two days from Saturday onwards. There could also be some regular shower activity in the Top End even though the wet season is now officially over. Western Australia The only reason we’ve put Australia’s largest state last is that this system will have more impact on the eastern two thirds of the continent than the west. Having said that, some eastern parts of the state could catch a piece of this system, with rain possible in some very dry outback areas. The far southwest of the state, including Perth, will see showers from cold fronts this Thursday and Friday. The fronts will be steered away from more easterly parts of Australia’s southern coastline by the blocking high.
12 May 2026, 12:57AM UTC
Thick Melbourne fog reduces visibility to 100m
Most of Melbourne awoke to a dense layer of fog on Tuesday morning, with visibility as low as 100 metres in some parts of the city, including at Avalon and Moorabbin Airports. Areas of fog also occurred elsewhere in Victoria overnight, and were relatively widespread across parts of three other states in southeastern Australia, with visibility down to: 50m at Murrurundi, NSW (Hunter forecast district) 50m at Cooma Airport, NSW (Snowy Mountains forecast district) 100m at Launceston Airport, Tas (Central North forecast district) 100m at Murray Bridge, SA (Murrylands forecast district) 100m at Kingscote, SA (Kangaroo Island) 100m at Warrnambool Airport, Vic (South West forecast district) Image: 3-hour satellite loop up until 10:30am (AEST) showing fog slowly clearing in the Melbourne area. Source: Weatherzone. Why was it so foggy overnight? "The fog formed due to clear skies and light winds beneath a high pressure system," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains. These conditions allowed the air to cool to its dew point – the point at which air is fully saturated and water vapour condenses into tiny, suspended water droplets at ground level, better known as fog. "In Melbourne, the dew point was around 9-10°C for most of the night. This morning's dew point temperatures were about 2-3°C above average for this time of year, which helped the fog develop," Domensino added. Melbourne…shrouded in fog! pic.twitter.com/F8eG20QJF8 — Terence McCarthy (@TerenceMcCart14) May 11, 2026 Can more foggy mornings be expected this week? Yes. A strong high pressure system currently centred over Tasmania is dominating Australia’s weather at present and is forecast to drift east slowly in coming days. The position of the high will ensure that stable conditions persist for at least a couple more nights over much of southeastern Australia, meaning further foggy mornings are likely. While it’s tough to pinpoint exactly where fog will form, many of the same low-lying areas and natural basins can expect the sort of ground-level fog seen on Tuesday, which will only clear as the day warms. Image: Fog over the Melbourne area with visibility in metres (the coloured numbers) at 8:20am on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Note less fog in Melbourne’s north, where Melbourne Airport is located. That’s because Port Phillip Bay was a source of moisture that helped fog form. Source: Weatherzone. Fog often causes delays at airports due to planes being unable to land or take off in low visibility. Air traffic was disrupted at several airports this Tuesday morning, including Avalon Airport between Geelong and Melbourne. Because of the flat land required for runways, it’s an unfortunate reality of geography that airports are often located in fog-prone areas. Image: Early morning fog over Melbourne on May 12, 2026. Source: @drone_buddy via Threads.
11 May 2026, 3:43AM UTC
Wet week ahead for multiple Australian states
Rain and thunderstorms will spread over parts of the Australian outback this week, affecting at least five states and territories. It’s also going to be a wet week for the country’s east coast. High pressure driving moisture over Australia A large high pressure system moving slowly over Tasmania and the Tasman Sea this week will cause moisture-laden easterly winds to flow across eastern, northern and central Australia. Image: Modelled precipitable water and mean sea level pressure, showing moisture-laden air over central and northern Australia on Friday, May 15, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. These persistent and moist easterly winds will generate showers each day this week along parts of the country’s east coast, extending from southern New South Wales up to northern Queensland. Further inland, tropical moisture will feed into a slow-moving low pressure trough to cause showers and thunderstorms over a broad area of northern, central and southeastern Australia. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting this week, with rain expected to fall in part of every state and territory during the next seven days. Image: Forecast accumulated rain this week, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Heavy inland rain This week’s outback showers and storms will mainly affect parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory and South Australia between Monday and Friday, with stormy weather possibly extending towards the south of SA, including Adelaide, from Wednesday onwards. While rain and thunderstorm activity will generally be hit and miss for much of this week, a more substantial rainband could develop from this weekend into early next week. Some computer models suggest that this rainband could soak a broad area of central and southeastern Australia from Saturday onwards. Image: Synoptic outlook on the Weatherzone app for Australia on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Some areas of central Australia should see accumulated falls of around 30 to 60 mm this week, with potential for isolated areas of more than 100 mm. This much rain can cause flooding, particularly in places that still have swollen rivers from recent rainfall. Anyone planning on travelling through central Australia during the next couple of weeks should check the latest forecast, weather warnings and road closures for the most up to date information.