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Instability over north Qld is producing a few showers & storms. Scattered storms in a broad area of low pressure across the NT & northern WA will continue through the remainder of today. A cold front approaching approaching the southeast brings some showers to Vic & Tas.
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Today, 3:46AM UTC
US Climate Prediction Center declares La Niña – what this means for Australia
A La Niña advisory has been issued by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC), indicating that La Niña conditions have emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue for the coming months. What is La Niña? La Niña is one of three phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The three phases of ENSO are La Niña, El Niño and neutral. When La Niña is occurring, cooler-than average water sits near the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while easterly trade winds flowing over the tropical Pacific Ocean become stronger than usual. This pattern typically results is in enhanced cloud and rainfall over the western tropical Pacific region, including parts of Australia. Image: Typical ocean and atmospheric components of La Niña. La Niña Advisory declared by US Climate Prediction Center A La Niña advisory was issued late last week by the US CPC. The advisory stated that “La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026.” The CPC’s La Niña definition is based on sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean being at least 0.5°C cooler than average, and an expectation that this region will remain below this threshold for at least three consecutive months. In addition to this ocean component, there also needs to be clear signs of an atmospheric response above the tropical Pacific Ocean for La Niña to be declared by the CPC. According to the advisory, these atmospheric changes are currently being observed. “Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected La Niña conditions,” the CPC says. La Niña not yet recognised by BoM The CPC’s definition of La Niña differs from that of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). While the CPC has declared that La Niña is underway, the BoM does not agree and still classifies the ENSO as being in a neutral state. The Bureau has slightly different La Niña thresholds to the CPC, requiring more intense and prolonged ocean cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean before a La Niña can be declared. Therefore, while conditions have now met the CPC thresholds for declaring La Niña, they aren’t yet sufficient for the BoM to follow suit. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. “The Bureau's model currently predicts the tropical Pacific is likely to meet La Niña levels briefly during spring, before returning to neutral by summer.” The current La Niña signal in the Pacific Ocean may not be strong enough for long enough for the BoM to declare La Niña. If one is declared, it is likely to be weak and short-lived. How will this impact Australia's weather? Moderate-to-strong La Niña events that occur during late spring and early summer typically enhance cloud and rainfall and suppress daytime temperatures over large areas of Australia, particularly northern, central and eastern parts of the country. However, the influence of weak or borderline La Niña episodes is less predictable. Image: Average October-to-December rainfall during nine moderate to strong La Niña events. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Image: Average October-to-December maximum temperatures during nine moderate to strong La Niña events. Source: Bureau of Meteorology It is clear that a La Niña-like pattern has become established in the Pacific Ocean in recent weeks. However, this pattern is currently expected to be short-lived and relatively weak, which means it may not have a strong influence on Australia’s weather in the coming months. Other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and abnormally warm sea surface temperatures closer to Australia, are expected to have a stronger influence on the Australian climate over the next few months. Check out the latest climate outlook maps for the most up-to-date rainfall and temperature predictions in the coming months.
Today, 2:07AM UTC
Spring see-saw brings wildly fluctuating temperatures in southeastern Australia
Maximums in several southern capital cities will bounce up and down by as much as 15 degrees this week, as spells of summery and wintry weather jostle for dominance. After a maximum of just 16.8°C on Sunday, Adelaide will hit the high-20s midweek, drop back to a top of just 20°C on Friday, then likely soar up 32°C on Sunday. Melbourne is heading for just 17°C this Monday but should reach 30°C by Thursday, before maximums drop back into the teens late in the working week ahead of more warmth due on Sunday. After almost reaching 32°C in the city yesterday (Sunday), Sydney will see more moderate peaks in the mid-20s midweek, before again heating up significantly to 32°C on Friday. Expect a much cooler maximum of 21°C on Saturday. Hobart has edged its way towards its predicted maximum of 15°C this Monday. The Tasmanian capital should warm quickly to 27°C by Thursday before dropping straight back to a high of just 16°C on Friday. By Sunday, maximums will again be in the mid-20s. It’s also worth noting that Hobart’s overnight low was just 4°C, while high above the city on the summit of kunanyi/Mt Wellington, the mercury fell to -4.1°C. In the tiny town of Liawenee on Tasmania’s Central Plateau, last night’s minimum of -6.2°C was the coldest night anywhere in Australia to date this October. Image: Thursday will be one of the warm days this week across most of the southeast. Why the spring see-saw? This week's strong temperature fluctuations are being caused by a series of cold fronts clipping the southern mainland – interspersed with bursts of warm air being dragged southwards from Australia’s interior. Brief spells of mild conditions which many people would consider "typical" of spring will punctuate the temperature extremes. But the reality of spring weather in southern Australia is that variability is just as common as a run of days when maximums are consistently mild. As for the other capitals: Brisbane can expect only slight variations in its maximums, which will range between about 26°C and 30°C all week. Canberra should also see less variation than cities like Sydney and Melbourne, with maximums in the 20s all week. The national capital is too far north for the coolest air from this week’s spring cold fronts, but high enough above sea level to prevent temperatures reaching the 30s as they will in Sydney and on the nearby NSW South Coast. Perth will also see maximum temperatures hovering consistently around the mid-20s, although a cool change is due by Sunday as a cold front clips the southwest. Darwin will be hot, which will be no surprise to anyone, but it’s worth noting that our northernmost capital city’s hottest two months are October and November as heat builds up before the wet season fully kicks in. The average maximum in both months is 33.4°C, but this week you can expect 35°C most days.
12 Oct 2025, 2:13AM UTC
Impressive thunderstorms in the NT
Intense thunderstorms have affected most parts of the Northern Territory this weekend due to the combination of heat and instability. Showers, significant rainfall, and lightning began to develop from early Saturday and strengthened in the afternoon and evening. It was a welcome event as some areas, like McArthur River Mine in Carpentaria East, hadn't seen any rain since March. Image: Water Vapour satellite imagery on the afternoon and evening of Saturday,11 October 2025. To 9am Sunday, Alice Springs (17.4mm) and Jabiru Airport (58.6mm) received the highest 24-hour October rainfall in 15 years. Borroloola (17.2mm) and Rabbit Flat (13.6mm) also recorded the highest rainfall for the month since 2020, and McArthur River (17.6mm) since 2021. A remarkable number of lightning strikes were recorded yesterday over the NT, with more than 475,000 strikes over the territory and nearby. Image: The red squares and crosses show the 475,488 lightning strikes detected within 800 kilometres of Tennant Creek on Saturday, 11 October 2025. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most parts of the territory today, before contracting to northern and central areas from tomorrow. Image: Total Precipitation forecast for Sunday, 12 October 2025. Source: Weatherzone. To know the forecast for your region, check here.