After months of below average rainfall across central and southern parts of the UK, the weather will make some attempt to redress the balance over the coming days. However, it will take more than a few showers and thunderstorms to undo the dearth of rainfall, but it’s a start.

Over the next couple of days, an area of high pressure – currently over the North Sea – will shift eastwards towards western Russia. In turn, an area of low pressure close to northern Spain will lift towards the SW of the UK, and then cross southern areas later in the week. This will encourage warmer and more unstable air to move up from the south into southern and some central parts of the UK.

Image: Percent of normal precipitation during the 90-day period ending on August 22, 2026. Source: DTN.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this influx of air from the south. Initially, these will be rather well-scattered through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Parts of south-east England may have a few thunderstorms later on Tuesday night. These should continue to move northwards into the Midlands and East Anglia on Wednesday morning but will tend to die out.

On Wednesday afternoon, spells of warm sunshine, with temperatures between 22°C and 26°C, will help in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms from Northern Ireland and south-west Scotland down into parts of southern England. Many places will miss these, but where storms do form, 15-30 mm of rain could fall in a short space of time.

Image: Lightning probability this week between Monday and Saturday. Source: DTN.

Through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, more organised areas of showers and thunderstorms look like spreading into southern and then central areas of the UK, before reaching northern England and southern Scotland by Thursday afternoon. Further downpours, and locally gusty winds, along with locally frequent lightning should accompany these.

Heading towards the weekend, which is a Bank Holiday one for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, further areas of rain or showers, including some thunderstorms, are expected across the UK, and it is likely to be rather windy at times. This, along with the fact that many trees in the drier areas are already shedding golden leaves due to drought stress, will give a somewhat autumnal feel to the weather. This seems appropriate, given the fact that meteorological autumn commences next week, on Tuesday, September 1.