Weather News

Tasman Low chances increasing

Craig McIntosh, Sunday July 31, 2016 - 13:15 EST

After a few days of computer forecast model uncertainty, there is now growing consensus that a deep low pressure system will form off the New South Wales coast in the coming days.

Currently associated with a cold front making its way across southeastern Australia, the low is likely to break away from the front, most likely on Wednesday, and slow down as it travels east. As the low deepens offshore, it has the potential to create storm force winds and heavy rainfall, with snow in Tasmania and along the divide.

Despite models coming to an agreement that the low will deepen and slow down, there is still some disagreement as to how long it will linger over the Tasman Sea. As we go to press, different models indicate the low will stick around anywhere from two-to-three days to a week, somewhat a forecaster's nightmare.

After a cold change on Tuesday, rain and cold southerly winds are likely to start lashing southeastern NSW, eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania on Wednesday. Multiple troughs could form off the low which will bring bursts of strong wind, large seas, heavy rain and the risk of thunderstorms.

The cold air that will be pushed north by the low will increase the chances of good snowfalls over the Alps, as well falls along the Great Dividing Range possibly as far north as Queensland.

Out to sea, the low will generate ferocious seas. The whole coastline from southern Tasmania to southeastern Queensland are on track to receive large and dangerous surf. The good news for surfers is that the winds are likely to maintain an element of west in them, meaning offshore conditions at many places north of the low.

Details will be updated regularly over the coming days as the low forms, and watch this space for inevitable warnings.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2016

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