The weather charts for the start of the 2022 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race look almost identical to the charts in 2017, when maxi yacht Comanche set a record race time of 1 day, 9 hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds.

We're not declaring that the race record will be broken this year, but we can state with high confidence that the 111-strong fleet will sail downwind for at least the first day of the race, under the classic summer northeasterlies which are ideal for fast times.

Take a look at the charts below comparing Boxing Day 2017 with Boxing Day 2022.

• The first one is from the BoM's synoptic chart archive.
• The second one is our projection for Monday night, the 26th (Boxing Day).

See how the high pressure system is centred in almost the same spot just east of New Zealand? Winds move anticlockwise around high pressure systems, so you can visualise the northeasterlies which will be pushing the fleet down the east coast.

That's the big picture. A more detailed representation of wind direction and speeds can be seen in the two charts below, which show wind speed and direction for the 26th and 27th.

Again, conditions look favourable for smooth, downwind sailing and fast times, while the approaching Southern Ocean cold front shouldn't have much of an impact on Bass or Tasmanian Strait weather until late Wednesday at the earliest (day three of the race).

The biggest ocean racing boats tend to sail at least twice as fast as some of the smaller craft, so the maxi yachts will miss any rough weather. But as the official Rolex Sydney to Hobart website states, it's a different story for smaller craft in the fleet:

"We could see the maxis sail to Hobart in one assisting weather pattern, while the rest of the fleet, from the mid-to-small sized boats, will have to battle through two or more patterns."

Whatever happens this year, there appears no chance of the sort of conditions that turned the race into a tragedy in 1998, when six lives were lost as an intense low pressure system fuelled wild winds off the NSW south coast.