Weather News

Severe weather to affect eastern NSW early next week

Ben Domensino, Thursday July 9, 2020 - 10:31 EST

A period of dangerous weather is likely to impact parts of eastern NSW early next week as a powerful low pressure system develops over the Tasman Sea, possibly an East Coast Low.

A pool of cold upper-level air will cause showers and thunderstorms to spread across parts of South Australia, Victoria, NSW, the ACT and southern Queensland between Friday and Sunday. Some of these showers will be heavy and thunderstorms are also likely.

Image: Atmospheric 'thickness' map showing a pool of cold air passing over southeastern Australia on Monday.

Early next week, this cold air will interact with relatively warm water in the Tasman Sea, causing a low pressure system to rapidly develop near the surface.

A number of forecast models now agree that this low pressure system will develop somewhere off the NSW coast on Monday and continue to deepen into Tuesday. The rapid development of this low is likely to produce heavy rain, strong and potentially damaging winds and large, dangerous waves.

Image: Forecast surface wind speed and direction on Tuesday morning next week, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the position of the low pressure system, which makes it difficult to predict its localised impacts in any great detail. At this stage, the most intense weather is likely to occur along the NSW coast and adjacent ranges somewhere between the South Coast and Mid North Coast, between Monday and Wednesday.

Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall between today and next Tuesday evening and mean sea level pressure next Tuesday evening, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall between today and next Tuesday evening and mean sea level pressure next Tuesday evening, according to the GFS model.

While the forecast is prone to change in the coming days, this system has the potential to produce severe weather in Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong and other communities in eastern NSW.

More accurate information will become available each day and warnings will be issued closer to the onset of the most intense weather.

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