It's looking like a wet Sunday for cricket's T20 World Cup Final at the MCG in Melbourne on Sunday. But how much will fall, and will rain delay the first ball of the match at 7 pm?

This we can say with strong confidence: plenty of rain is tracking Melbourne's way later this week.

As we explained in this story earlier today, unusually warm sea surface temperatures to the north and east of Australia are enhancing evaporation, allowing moisture-laden air to build over the Australian continent.

All that moisture will interact with a series of low pressure troughs and low pressure systems over the coming week, causing showers, thunderstorms and widespread rain over several states and territories.

Melbourne is one of the locations in the firing line. Indeed it's right on the edge of the region where the heaviest rain is expected, as you can see on the image below which shows the expected 7-day rainfall accumulation up until next Monday.

Now let's zoom in on the early projection for Melbourne next Sunday. This is where things get interesting, and indeed, where there's a small ray of hope for cricket fans.

Weatherzone is currently predicting rain for Melbourne on Sunday, with a 50% chance of 20 mm, and a 25% chance of 40 mm of rain. That would be some pretty heavy rain, and would definitely threaten the match due to a soggy outfield, even if it stopped before the game.

But while there's the near certainty of at least some rain falling in Melbourne on Sunday, all is not lost for cricket fans. As you can see in the image below, there are early signs that the heaviest rain could fall in the ranges to the northwest of the city.

With luck, the heaviest rain will either miss downtown Melbourne, or will occur several hours before the match,  or won't have been heavy enough to completely saturate the entire MCG outfield – or all of the above. Fingers and toes crossed.

By the way, if no play is possible (or not enough play to complete the match), Monday is set down as a reserve day to hold the final.

While there looks to be rain around Melbourne again on Monday, a general clearing trend should be in place by then, and the evening could even be fine, so you can definitely expect a single World Cup champion to be crowned (dual champions are declared if the reserve day is also washed out).

In better cricket weather news, the two T20 World Cup semi-finals should both be rain-free. The New Zealand vs Pakistan fixture at the SCG should be played under atypically clear Sydney skies on Wednesday evening, while the India vs England match in Adelaide on Thursday evening should also be rain-free.