It's a shame that only 10,000 (double-vaccinated) patrons will be allowed on course at Flemington for the 2021 Melbourne Cup this coming Tuesday, because the weather looks like being absolutely perfect for a day out.

Fine sunny weather with a top of 29°C is forecast for Melbourne, which would make it a similar day to 2020, when the mercury peaked at 30.4°C.

• For those with an interest in weather stats, the hottest Melbourne Cup day on record was 1902, when Melbourne's official maximum was 35.1°C. Would you care to know which horse scored the victory that year? That's a bit of a trick question because the winner was a horse called "The Victory".
• Prior to 2020, the last time it hit 30ºC on Cup Day was 30.7ºC in 2005.
• The 30.7ºC in 2005 was the hottest since 1969, when it reached 31.4ºC.

One question a lot of people ask on hot Melbourne Cup days is: can the European invaders handle the heat?

Image: The horse we get in the sweep is usually as slow as this tram. Source: @Pemacallan via Pixabay.

We here at Weatherzone are weather information specialists, not a race tipping service. We do not condone gambling beyond the traditional office sweep.

But for those with an interest in such things, it's worth pointing out that hot days do tend to stress horses which are unaccustomed to heat. Heat can also dry out the track to the point where it's quite hard underfoot (or should that be underhoof?).

Both factors can work against the Europeans, which tend to race in cool, often wet conditions. But it's not always a problem for them.

• German horse Protectionist won the Melbourne Cup on a 29-degree day in 2014.
• And of course, Irish-bred and trained horse Twilight Payment won in last year's 30 degree heat.

So we probably haven't helped you pick the winner there, though as mentioned, that's not our job anyway.

We can, however, tip you one near-certain winner on this coming Tuesday November 3, and that would be anyone who gets outside in Melbourne whether they’re trackside or not. At this stage, the day really is shaping up to be a cracker.