Rain is heading Melbourne’s way for the famous first Tuesday in November when the Melbourne Cup is run at Flemington Racecourse, with conditions across much of Victoria likely to be staying soggy after rain begins on Monday.

While high cloud will thicken over Melbourne on Sunday, the temperature during most of the day will give little indication of what lies ahead, as northerlies funnel warm air southwards from Australia’s interior. A maximum around 30°C is likely in the city, with the mercury pushing well into the mid-30s in Victoria's northwest.

"As the new week begins, a deep trough ahead of a cold front will extend high into the atmosphere, dragging tropical moisture towards southern Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains.

"This trough will supply the instability to convert the abundant available moisture into significant rainfall."

Image: Available water vapour that could convert to precipitation across Australia according to the ECMWF model for Monday, November 3, 2025. 

• Melbourne is heading for a maximum of just 16°C on Monday and 18°C on Tuesday in the wake of an influx of cooler air from the south, which will make conditions uncomfortable for anyone spending the day outdoors without suitable outerwear.
• Rainfall totals of 20-40mm are forecast for Monday, with 10-20mm possible on Tuesday. Rain is likely to be heaviest at night, with the chance of showers clearing by Tuesday afternoon. 

To put the potential rainfall early next week in perspective, Melbourne has received 20mm of rain (or higher) on just three days in 2025 to date. It happened twice in January, and the most recent case was this week (Monday, October 27, which was the heaviest rain day of 2025 with 35.4mm).

So this is a significant rainfall event that looks to be peaking in Melbourne on a day when there is widespread interest in the famously fickle weather of the Victorian capital.

Image: Hourly Graphs for Tuesday, November 4, 2025, on the Weatherzone app.

But the rain will not be confined to Victoria. Rain will begin falling in southern and southeastern parts of South Australia during Sunday, with a period of wet weather to follow across much of eastern Australia and Tasmania.

Spring soakings like this are usually welcome in southern and inland parts of the mainland before the weather starts to dry out towards summer. There will, however, be many Victorians whose public holiday plans are dampened next Tuesday, November 4.

Our Melbourne forecast is here.