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Anthony Sharwood, 25 Aug 2021, 4:43 AM UTC

How often is Sydney's maximum less than Melbourne's in winter?

How often is Sydney's maximum less than Melbourne's in winter?

Sydney and Melbourne share a climate statistic which is not very well known, but which is fascinating. Here it is: 

  • In the warmest month of the year (January), both cities have an average daily maximum of exactly 26°C. True story!
  • They also have the same average daily maximum of 25.8°C in the second-warmest month (February)
  • Meanwhile average December top temps are only a degree apart, with 24.2°C in Melbourne vs 25.2°C in Sydney.

So average summer top temps are similar in Australia’s two largest and most populous cities. Melbourne tends to get more hot and cold summer extremes, while Sydney’s daily top temp is more constant (at least in coastal areas where its "official" Observatory Hill weather station is located), but it all more or less evens out.

Winter presents a very different picture. Sydney's average daily max is around three degrees warmer than Melbourne's all winter. 

So how often is a Sydney day colder than a Melbourne day in winter? 

Image: Spectacular scenes ahead of the cold change in Sydney earlier this week. Source: @philipps.world.of.photography/Instagram.

We haven't yet crunched the historical numbers on this, but using the 2021 winter as a guide, the answer is not that often.

Sydney has recorded a lower maximum than Melbourne just five times so far this winter, and the reason we’re thinking about this today is that one of those days was yesterday, as in Tuesday August 24.

The five days in winter 2021 when Sydney had a lower maximum than Melbourne:

  • June 3: Syd 13.4°C vs Mel 16.9°C. 
  • June 10: Syd 10.3°C vs Mel 15.1°C (this was Sydney's coldest day in 37 years). 
  • June 19: Syd 14.6°C vs Mel 16.2°C.
  • August 8: Syd 15.3°C vs Mel 16.4°C (interestingly Sydney was still colder during the day despite Melbourne having its coldest night of August 2021 with a 5.8°C min). 
  • Mon Aug 24: Syd 11.5ºC vs Mel 13.1ºC (this was Sydney’s second coldest day since 1996).

So what sort of weather pattern typically makes Sydney colder than Melbourne in winter? 

"The weather setups that make Sydney colder than Melbourne are usually those that cause Sydney to be wet and cloudy all day, while Melbourne is predominantly dry with at least some sunshine," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains.
 
"Cold fronts that cause low pressure systems to develop over the Tasman Sea are ideal candidates for this, which is what we saw yesterday."
 
Things are back to what you might call normal this Wednesday. While Sydney is having a cool one by its standards, with a top of just 15.7ºC by 2:50 pm, Menbourne's highest temp at the same time was just 13.4ºC.
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