An already-flooded Fiji is under a tropical cyclone alert, with rain and wind expected to intensify today. This monsoonal rain is expected to persist through to the middle of the week. The deluge is the result of a monsoon trough that has formed under the influence of a strong phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is a large scale climate driver that can be characterized as an eastward moving pulse of cloud and rainfall near the equator, which also increases the risk of tropical cyclones. The Madden-Julian Oscillation had taken its toll on Australia during March, contributing to the development of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua that hit northwest WA. This pulse of monsoonal activity slowly moved east across the tropics during March, ending with flooding rain in northeast Queensland. As the MJO moved over the western Pacific it strengthened, reaching near-record values by the end of March. This has assisted in the development of a tropical depression, which now sits to the west of the Fiji islands. There is a risk that the system could intensify into a tropical cyclone today, however it is expected to remain west of the main island as it continues its southward track. While the system should not directly hit Fiji, it will at least continue to generate very heavy rainfall, squally winds and damaging swells. There are flood warnings in place for all major rivers, streams and low lying areas of Viti Levu. Already, more than 230mm of rain falling Nadi during the past 48 hours. Winds could gust up to 110km/h today as the system continue to strengthen. The tropical depression is then expected to roar towards New Zealand, where it could hammer the North Island with gale force winds, heavy rainfall and large swells towards the middle of the week.