The extended forecast for Christmas Day looks promising for most of Australia’s capital cities, with predominantly warm and dry weather potentially on the cards. However, three cities could see wet and stormy weather on Christmas Day this year.

Interpreting the extended Christmas forecast

Christmas Day is now only two weeks away, meaning we have entered the window where numerical weather prediction models are able to give early indications of what to expect on the day.

However, it is important to note that a forecast made two weeks in advance is more of a general guide than an explicit prediction because model uncertainty typically increases the further you look ahead.

As a general rule, predictions for days 1 to 3 ahead of the current date have the highest confidence, days 4 to 7 have moderate confidence and days 8 to 14 have lower confidence. Some ensemble models even give predictions beyond 14 days ahead, which can be a useful guide, but these should also be used with caution when planning Christmas Day activities.

The best way to use Christmas Day forecasts over the next two weeks is to:

• Use the forecasts as a general guide from now until Wednesday, December 17. It is probably too early to make any changes to your plans this far ahead but start thinking about what the current forecasts might mean for your plans on the day.
• Start taking more notice of the forecast details from Thursday, December 18, including the chance of rain, rain amounts, temperatures and wind speed and direction. Start thinking about how different elements in the forecast might affect your plans and consider if you need to have a back-up plan in case of adverse weather.
• You can start to have more confidence in the Christmas Day forecast from about Monday, December 22 onwards, with confidence increasing each day in the leadup to December 25. This is the best time to lock in your plans with the weather in mind.

What is the extended forecast for Christmas Day this year?

The extended forecast for Christmas Day this year is looking favourable for most of Australia’s capital cities, that is if you like warm and dry weather. However, there are signs that rain or thunderstorms cold affect a couple of cities.

Image: Christmas Day forecast, valid on Wednesday, December 11, 2025. Source: Weatherzone.

Sydney is one of the capital cities that currently has showers on the forecast. Some computer models also indicate the potential for thunderstorms on December 25. Temperatures are expected to be warm, with a maximum of 28°C.

Melbourne should be dry for most or all of Christmas Day, with temperatures climbing to the mid-20s under mostly sunny skies.

Brisbane is expected to be warm and mostly sunny, with east to southeasterly winds keeping temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s for most of the day.

Perth is looking warm, dry and mostly sunny, heading for a maximum temperature in the low 30s.

Adelaide should be dry with a top temperature around 28°C. There might be some cloud about but at this stage, rain is unlikely.

Canberra is currently looking warm on Christmas Day, possibly reaching around 30°C in the afternoon. This warmth may help some showers or storms develop around the ACT.

Hobart may see some cloud this Christmas, but the current forecast is looking dry for most of the day with a maximum temperature in the low-20s.

Darwin will be warm, with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. This forecast won’t surprise any locals as this type of weather is typical for this time of year.

Image: There are early signs that most Australian capital cities will have a dry and warm Christmas Day this year. Source: iStock / Veronica Todaro

Be sure to check the Christmas forecast regularly over the next two weeks as it may change from day to day with new model data becoming available.