The crocs would be wearing beanies and scarves in the Top End this Thursday, with Darwin's maximum temperature falling well short of 30°C.

As we started writing this story at 3 pm Australian Central Standard Time (ACST), the mercury in Darwin was sitting on 28.2°C, after peaking moments earlier at 28.5°C.

By 4 pm local time it was down to 25.3°C, which means that this will almost certainly be the coldest day of the 2022/23 summer to date. The previous lowest maximum was 28.8°C on December 30.

Image: This actually maybe happened in Darwin today. Source: iStock with digital help by Alexis Dewick.

Before today, the lowest maximums of each month in the 2022/23 summer were:

• 29.8°C on Feb 13
• 28.9°C on January 6
• 28.8°C on December 30

What makes Darwin's top temp ocasionally fall short of 30°C?

Blame the rain, which hasn't been heavy by wet season standards with 4.4 mm recorded to 3 pm Thursday, but it's the timing of the rain that counts.

Typically, Darwin sees heavy afternoon showers and storms at this time of year which are fuelled by the day's heat. But in the less common scenario when rain falls in the morning, as happened this Thursday, the clouds slow down the sun's heating effect.

Darwin can experience even lower daytime temperatures during the (fortunately not too frequent) occurrences of tropical cyclones. For example, temps were hovering around a coolish 24°C at midday during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Marcus on March 17, 2018.

Meanwhile this has been a reasonably consistent wet season in Darwin and nearby areas. December was a standout, with Darwin receiving 519 mm, just over double the monthly average. Other months have been closer to average.

Image: The weekly rainfall map for Australia to Feb 23 shows the heavy Top End rain of the last few days. Source: BoM.

There was even a six-day dry spell in Darwin that ended earlier this week, although since then, a trough and associated low pressure system have caused heavy Top End rain, prompting a flood watch issued on Thursday morning for parts of the North West, Bonaparte and Carpentaria areas.

More typical Darwin wet season weather is in the forecast for the next week, with afternoon showers and storms, and temps reaching or exceeding 30°C. Old man croc can put the beanie back in the cupboard for now.